Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research goes the other way from Newspoll on voting intention, while both pollsters suggest the same-sex marriage plebiscite will record a high participation rate and a resounding yes vote.

Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition this week as a particularly strong result for Labor a fortnight ago washes out of the two-week rolling average, leaving Labor’s lead at 53-47. Primary votes are only provided for the minor parties, so we’ll have to wait on that for the release of the full report later today (UPDATE: here it is: Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down two to 37%, Greens steady on 9%, One Nation steady on 8%). The poll also finds 33% in favour of committing military support to the United States in the event of conflict with North Korea, with 38% opposed and 26% uncommitted. Sixty-one per cent believed parliament should have a say on the matter, with only 22% favouring the prime ministerial prerogative. On the question of the biggest threats to global security, The Guardian relates the results the most favoured responses were, in descending order, terrorism, North Korean aggression, climate change, US aggression, Chinese aggression and Russian aggression.

Essential also provides one of two sets of new numbers on the same-sex marriage plebiscite/survey, the other being a second tranche of results from the weekend’s Newspoll. Both record similarly strong majorities saying they will participate: 63% for definite and 18% for probably from Essential, compared with 67% and 15% from Newspoll. They also both find supporters more likely to vote than opponents, although in both cases this is based on very small samples of prospective non-voters. The two pollsters get different outcomes on the question of whether the postal plebiscite should be held: Newspoll records 49% “in favour” and 43% “opposed”, while Essential has 39% approval and 49% disapproval. Newspoll also finds 62% in favour of “guarantees in law for freedom of conscience, belief and religion if (parliament) legislates for same-sex marriage”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Ides

    1984 speak.

    “New regime ‘all about love’, Malcolm Turnbull says as Canterbury-Bankstown named the first of three trial sites.”

  2. Paul Syvret on the ME Plebiscite:

    NEWSPOLL yesterday told the Government exactly what the Australian electorate thinks about marriage equality.

    For just $3, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull could have got a copy of The Australian from his local newsagent and learned the “yes” vote for same-sex marriage outnumbers the “no” brigade by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

    For the price of a coffee he would have discovered that even 50 per cent of voters who identify as supporters of the far-right One Nation party indicate they will be voting yes in the upcoming ballot.

    Instead on we march with a redundant and divisive – and voluntary – postal survey which is going to cost taxpayers $122 million.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-conservatives-on-wrong-side-of-history-in-gay-marriage-vote/news-story/e888e5ee8ea7e8877fc65d65b9211764?utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=CourierMail&utm_medium=Twitter&nk=e3701db28f5147e16a6c11420f7a01d7-1503370391

  4. Ides of March @ #250 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 12:54 pm

    I had the misfortune of listening to Porter on ABC radio this morning. Bah. Pathetic imterview and what a load of bs to sell the policy. Its mot a policy of love, its a divisive issue thrown out as red meat for the conservative wing. US experience indicates its more expensive to drug test than not. But this govt doesnt seem to understand evidence.

    And Sabra Lane certainly doesn’t understand interviewing.

  5. Scammers impersonating National Broadband Network (NBN) staff are attempting to con unsuspecting consumers into handing over sensitive personal identification details.

    What to do if you get a call like this:
    •Hang up
    •Don’t respond to numbers supplied in an automated call
    •Delete any messages left on voicemail
    •Speak to someone you trust about the scam call

    The new breed of NBN fraudsters are cold-calling households hunting for valuable personal information like names, dates of birth and Medicare numbers that could unlock bank and superannuation accounts.

    The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) Scamwatch has seen a spike in NBN-related complaints where scammers attempt to sign consumers up to fake accounts with the promise of connecting to the NBN for a low price.

    The watchdog’s deputy chair Delia Rickard said 316 complaints had been received this year, where unwitting consumers had lost thousands of dollars.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-22/scammers-posing-as-the-nbn-calling-unsuspecting-consumers/8829806

  8. Adrian

    I actually agree with you that Sabra Lane isnt that good.

    Im all the way with Sarah Ferguson. Shes not being used well on 4C!!!

  10. TPOF:

    Zoomster

    So let’s list our predictions for the HC outcome –
    __________________________________

    Mine is that the court will distinguish the Sykes case to the circumstances of the two candidates in that case. These are situations where the candidates demonstrably knew at the time that they had held other citizenship and had not taken sufficient steps to register their renunciation with the government concerned.

    I do not think the HC will adopt a “demonstrably knew” test to the interpretation of s.44 for the following reasons:-
    1. A test of eligibility that rewards ignorance (demonstrably didn’t know) or duplicity (can’t prove they knew even though they might have known) is silly.
    2. Application of the test will mean every case will need to be determined on its individual facts. What happens when, after the Court has determined eg that Barnaby didn’t demonstrably know when he nominated, a letter in Barnaby’s handwriting appears which proves he did know at some earlier time but may have subsequently forgotten?

    I think the HC will adopt a 2 part test: Would a person be on reasonable notice that they might be a citizen of another country and if so, what reasonable steps have they taken to renounce?

    As to the first part, being born in a foreign country or having a parent born in a foreign country would IMO be reasonable notice that the person might be a dual citizen. Absent any effort to renounce then the person is ineligible. Bye bye Barnaby.

    Matt Canavan would be the only interesting case thus far. If he is believed, he should be found to be eligible.

  11. Hopefully this opens up a debate about the appalling discrimination that religions are entitled to practice. I’d love to see some polling on whether teachers, doctors, nurses should be permitted to be summarily sacked because of the disproportionate involvement of religions in the marketplace

  13. Some more YouGov

    The poll finds 45% think Barnaby Joyce should step aside, 38% don’t think he should.

    YouGov poll finds 56% saying they are ‘very likely’ to take part in marriage postal survey, 17% saying they are ‘fairly likely’. #auspol

    Should be up on Fairfax sites soonish

  14. Did China Hack the Seventh Fleet?

    http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/08/21/did_china_hack_the_seventh_fleet_112102.html

    Has GPS become so vulnerable that it’s now a liability?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05cgy61

    Russian capable of neutralising US warships with electronic jamming devices

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4424320/amp/Russia-able-neutralise-warships-report-claims.html

    malware from China which attacks shipping industry cyber infrastructure

    http://journal.georgetown.edu/u-s-military-defense-systems-the-anatomy-of-cyber-espionage-by-chinese-hackers/

  15. lizzie

    Ides

    1984 speak.

    “New regime ‘all about love’, Malcolm Turnbull says

    Oh goody. Truffles gives Oceania our very own Ministry of Love (Miniluv).

  20. @ shiftaling – don’t worry, they’ve thought of that.

    Yougov’s methodology for the last poll before the election is to disregard their methodology and herd their result to the median result of other pollsters.

  21. Ides of March @ #258 Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017 – 1:09 pm

    Adrian

    I actually agree with you that Sabra Lane isnt that good.

    Im all the way with Sarah Ferguson. Shes not being used well on 4C!!!

    Yes, Sarah Ferguson is wasted on 4 Corners, but that’s what happens when you don’t follow the party line.

    Lane has two interviewing styles – craven and passive when interviewing coalition ministers (no interruptions for Porter), and aggressive and condescending (with a negative tone) when interviewing Labor spokespersons.

    This happens too consistently to be just chance.

  23. Will we see the tentatively critical commentators of the last week (Kenny, Hartcher etc al) now claim vindication for MT based on this YouGov? It must have hurt them to criticise him, but now they can finally reveal it was all just part of his 4-D Chess game of electoral bamboozlement.

  25. From ABC24 commentary it sounds like a bunch of generals are now calling the shots in the U.S.. Scary, but still less scary than Trump.

  26. Why even bother with YouGov? It has the government in a better position than the last election (for about the 3rd time).

    Simply not plausible, and I’m bored of laughing at it.

  28. Yougov primaries don’t look too bad except for low Labor vote, an issue also seen in IPSOS. Though it seems instead of Greens the blowout is for “others”.

    Primaries
    Coalition 34
    Labor 33
    Greens 10
    ON 10
    Others 13

    What 2 PP would we get from these?

  30. a r

    From ABC24 commentary it sounds like a bunch of generals are now calling the shots in the U.S.. Scary, but still less scary than Trump.

    ***********************************************************

    Just another 180 degree reversal of snake oil salesman candidate Trump – to President Trump…… even before announcing his candidacy – assailing the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, just to increase troops levels seven months after taking office.

    Afghanistan is another example of how the reality of governing a country has clashed with this president’s lifelong habit of spewing whatever crosses his mind at any given moment.

    We can add it to the growing dumpster heap of broken Trump promises.

  33. The 33 primary for Labor in YouGov lacks credibility. It’s about the same as Labor’s electoral nadir at the 2013 election. Labor has vastly improved its position since then.

    But taking those numbers, I get 2PP = 100% Lab + 80% Grn + 45% (ON + Oth) = 51.35 –> 51.

    If One Nation preferences were start going, say, 70% to the Coalition, that would be 49.85 –> 50.

  35. bemused

    They didn’t look like the Canberra bombers I am familiar with

    ********************************************************

    WB-57 High Altitude Research – The NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas is the home of the NASA WB-57 High Altitude Research Program. Three fully operational WB-57 aircraft are based near JSC at Ellington Field. The aircraft have been flying research missions since the early 1960’s, and continue to be an asset to the scientific community with professional, reliable, customer-oriented service designed to meet all scientific objectives.

    https://jsc-aircraft-ops.jsc.nasa.gov/wb57/

    A Brief History of the B-57 Canberra – https://jsc-aircraft-ops.jsc.nasa.gov/wb57/history.html

  36. bemused

    They didn’t look like the Canberra bombers I am familiar with

    They are the American version built by Martin B-25, I think. Nose distinctly different.

    A bit ugly.

  40. I thought Bill Shorten would’ve produced the paperwork today following last nights questioning from Jones.
    The longer it goes unanswered the more determined his opponents will get.

  43. I suspect Shorten is challenging/taunting the Libs to have a crack at referring him to the High Court, knowing he is on absolutely safe ground/

  44. LNP really want to dig them selves into a grave under the current situation, citizenship debacle, NBN debacle etc now going to test welfare for drugs in Sydney the same place where they tried to do visa checks by the nazies.

  45. “Breaking: Mexico has sent it’s first down payment for the wall. #SundayFunday @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/PeLEzAfCpg”

    ..Lol!!!

    :large

  47. Barnaby Joyce, Matt Canavan ‘citizens of NZ, Italy’

    The Commonwealth Solicitor-General Stephen Donaghue has conceded that Senator Matt Canavan and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce “are, or were, citizens of Italy and New Zealand respectively” in the government’s formal submission to the High Court.
    …
    “The experts conclude that, for the purposes of the domestic law of each country, Senator Canavan and the Hon Barnaby Joyce MP are, or were, citizens of Italy and New Zealand respectively. The Attorney-General understands that this conclusion will not be disputed in either reference.”

    Oh dear…

    Google method: barnaby-joyce-matt-canavan-citizens-of-nz-italy

  50. Rex – No expense, there are already plenty being referred he could piggy-back on. Labor would love to have someone referred so they can have their procedures on record as ‘reasonable steps’.

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