Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for a while has a conventional two-party preferred result, while continuing to record much stronger support for the Greens than other pollsters.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

534 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Ipsos primaries looking sick for Coalition at 35. The rest of commentary is piss and wind.

    Coalition need 40+ on primaries to have any hope

    ”
    The primary vote of both the Coalition and Labor fell in the poll, to the benefit of the minor parties, with the Coalition’s vote falling 2 percentage points to 35 per cent, Labor down 1 percentage point to 34 per cent, the Greens rising 1 point to 14 per cent and “others”, including the Nick Xenophon Team and One Nation, rising 2 percentage points to 17 per cent, compared with May.

    When voters were asked how they would allocate preferences – rather than relying on 2016 preference flows – the contest between the two major parties narrowed slightly, with Labor’s lead reduced to 52 to 48 per cent.”

  3. And to think the 17% OneNation and Bernardis will break bigly for the Coalition with that Leftie Turnbull in charge, well one only has to read Bolt, Devine, sundry RWNJ to know the bleeding will haemorrhage (thank God for spellcheck!)

  8. And to think the 17% OneNation and Bernardis will break bigly for the Coalition with that Leftie Turnbull in charge, well one only has to read Bolt, Devine, sundry RWNJ to know the bleeding will haemorrhage (thank God for spellcheck!)

    Now they just need to work on mixed metaphor check.

  11. GG’
    If I am to choose between your distress over marriage equality if it is enacted and the distress for same-sex couples if it is not, you lose.

  12. Looks to me as if the general disenchantment with politics is harming the rating of both leaders. That’s not surprising. But it’s the govt that will pay the price in the ballot box.

  14. GG:

    Rex reminds me of Dennis Shanahan circa 2007 with his claims that PPM was the only polling beauty index that mattered in terms of which party had the front row seat in terms of the next election.

  15. Nah, just telling you how it is going to be for me when I vote. I will pass you a hankie though.

    Greensborough Growler @ #13 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #11 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:34 pm

    GG’
    If I am to choose between your distress over marriage equality if it is enacted and the distress for same-sex couples if it is not, you lose.

    Oh, hit me harder with your self righteous lettuce leaf!

  16. Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #15 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:49 pm

    Nah, just telling you how it is going to be for me when I vote. I will pass you a hankie though.

    Greensborough Growler @ #13 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #11 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:34 pm

    GG’
    If I am to choose between your distress over marriage equality if it is enacted and the distress for same-sex couples if it is not, you lose.

    Oh, hit me harder with your self righteous lettuce leaf!

    It’s not a vote. It’s a highly ignorable opinion. The process lacks credibility and suckers like you who think they can emote their way to paradise are the ones that will be crying in the end.

    But, you emote away.

  18. confessions, and if I remember correctly he ( Shanahan ) shut down comments on his blog when he got called out for it, and News Ltd did an editorial & went to town on the “blogsphere”,what nasty people they were etc….lol

  19. antonbruckner11 @ #12 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:34 pm

    Looks to me as if the general disenchantment with politics is harming the rating of both leaders.

    Also looks like the never-ending attacks on Shorten are paying a kind of dividend? Though not the kind the government actually needs to win an election. Not expecting any change in tactics.

    The moderation queue seems to not hate this account, hooray!

  20. sonar @ #18 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:59 pm

    confessions, and if I remember correctly he ( Shanahan ) shut down comments on his blog when he got called out for it, and News Ltd did an editorial & went to town on the “blogsphere”,what nasty people they were etc….lol

    The problem in the end was the “nasty people” were right!

  23. money money money
    #

    The Catholic Church has ordered the Genesian Theatre Company to leave their Kent Street venue, ending a tradition of amateur theatre in the centre of Sydney that goes back to the 1950’s.

    First built in 1868 as the St John’s Church but later used as a poor house and a Matthew Talbot hostel, the building is now likely to become the foyer of a new hotel or residential development.

    The president of the Genesian Theatre Company, Roger Gimblett, confirmed to the ABC that the church has told the club it will have to vacate the building in November next year.

    “If you look around there are very few theatres in the centre of Sydney that are left, we are the only community theatre and after 63 years on this site it will be sad to go,” he said.

    The company has an illustrious alumnus that includes John Bell, Bryan Brown and Baz Luhrmann.

    “An endless parade of established actors [started here]: the Prime Minister’s mother (Coral Lansbury), and I am told the Governor-General trod the boards here at least once.”

    The Genesian Theatre Company offered to buy the building off the church but was told a property developer, who has secured two adjoining buildings, made a premium offer in excess of $6 million for the former church.
    …
    Other members of the audience suggested the sale might be linked to compensation payouts arising from sexual misconduct by priests.

    #

    Yeah, marvellous, make the community pay. But I suppose it had to end up with developers eventually.

  27. Puffy,

    I can’t be held responsible for your illiteracy.

    But, you can cry if you want to. And, you know you want to!

  28. Good evening all,

    Not surprising the on line Fairfax reporting of the Ipsos poll is headlining Bill Shorten. That is just the way it is. Turnbull himself has recorded a 3 point drop in approval and a 3 point increase in disapproval so the Turnbull attacks on Shorten may be having a negative impact on him as well.

    With four months ( almost) between polls it is all naval gazing anyway and trying to connect recent events and or tactics to the falls in both leaders is a bit tenuous. Perhaps someone more learned than I may have a better informed view on this but it really does not matter anyway. Labor is still ahead and both Shorten and Turnbull are not being embraced by the public at this point in time.

    Cheers and a great night to all.

  31. sonar:

    Actually for me the best bit of the 2007 campaign (with hindsight) was the Howard-Costello desperate double act, ‘vote for me and you get him’ shtick.

    How comedownment!

  32. From the Fairfax article:
    “These results suggest economic management could offer the Coalition a way back into the political contest ahead of the next election.”

    No, it doesn’t not; “39 per cent of voters thought the Coalition was best-placed to manage the economy and 28 per cent thought Labor had the best economic policies”.

    If wages grow significantly, housing get no less affordable and the deficit looks like it will be reduced, then perhaps the government can campaign on the economy, by next election (when expected), they will have been in power at least 5 years.
    No excuses.

    If wages are flat, housing in Sydney is still unaffordable and they are campaigning on company tax cuts to fix wages, then they are gone. Despite their ‘reputation’.

    Despite everything if they think they can get through the tax cuts, then they will have two significant (for them) things: lower big company taxes and have kept Labor out of power for 5+ years. Nothing else matters.

  35. IPSOS poll is bit of a joke with obvious sampling issues causing a blowout of Green primary vote.

    Regardless the numbers look decent for Labor. It seems 2pp rounded down to 53 and could easily be 54.

    On economic management numbers, 10 point difference is nothing too exciting for Coalition.

    Fairfax coverage of the poll is hopeless as always.

  37. Hi again,

    Just one last observation for the evening.

    If Turnbull and Frydenberg think they will be on a winner this week with AGL and “Blackout Bill” taunts then perhaps they should have a plan B just in case.

    AGL has the very real potential to blow up in their face on the first day of the week, labor will be spot on with their messaging this week and the Nationals have voted to oppose a CET with George Christensen declaring he will cross the floor if it is adopted by the government.

    What could possibly go wrong ?

    Cheers.

  39. Tomorrow Malcolm Turnbull will have been Prime Minister for as long as Tony Abbott. He will need to last another 9 months or so to catch up with Kevin Rudd and 12 months and a bit to pass Julia Gillard.

  40. Doyley

    “If Turnbull and Frydenberg think they will be on a winner this week with AGL and “Blackout Bill” taunts”.
    .
    It will be as successful as the “Electricity Bill” that they tried.

  41. poroti @ #40 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:07 pm

    Doyley

    “If Turnbull and Frydenberg think they will be on a winner this week with AGL and “Blackout Bill” taunts”.
    .
    It will be as successful as the “Electricity Bill” that they tried.

    It takes some gall to blame Labor for the energy crisis given that the L/NP have been in power for 5 years. That they even think they can try it on is testament to how poorly served we are by the CPG.

    I hope that Labor tactics tear them apart on it.

  42. I am sure AGL must be wondering what they have done right. They want to close an old clunker of a power station and spend the associated clean up costs. The government want them to sell it to someone/anyone. The government has got skin the game now, so AGL is in a strong negotiating position. I’m sure they can’t believe their luck that the superior economic managers are in charge. Only upside for them.

  43. Craig Kelly is begging AGL to Liddell plant to be put on the market,

    My best guess as to why they want to do that is so that their mates can buy it cheap.

  45. zoidlord @ #43 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 9:17 pm

    Craig Kelly is begging AGL to Liddell plant to be put on the market,

    My best guess as to why they want to do that is so that their mates can buy it cheap.

    Along with the cheap asset goes the remediation cost. If AGL thought it was still worthwhile to keep running, thye would have planned to do that. I’m sure the COALition wouldn’t be doing their mates any favour. A government asset, on the other hand…

  46. Kelly is now saying they want ACCC to look into the shutdown of AGL plant before they do it.

    Oh and Coalition added 730,000 to unemployment since 2013 election.

  47. zoidlord @ #43 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    Craig Kelly is begging AGL to Liddell plant to be put on the market,

    My best guess as to why they want to do that is so that their mates can buy it cheap.

    There is nothing cheap about the maintenance costs associated with a coal fired power plant near the end of its economic life. Then the enormous cost associated with decommissioning and remediating the extremely contaminated site.

    My prediction is that the L/NP will do some sort of deal where AGL sell the power plant to someone else and a part of the deal includes the responsiblity for remediation being passed to…

    you guessed it…

    Billy Muggins himself, John Q Taxpayer of the Commonwealth of Australia.

  50. confessions @ #14 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 7:47 pm

    GG:

    Rex reminds me of Dennis Shanahan circa 2007 with his claims that PPM was the only polling beauty index that mattered in terms of which party had the front row seat in terms of the next election.

    A foolish quote something like “We understand Newspoll because we own it” comes to mind.

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