Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for a while has a conventional two-party preferred result, while continuing to record much stronger support for the Greens than other pollsters.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

534 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Q,

    Why I believe Faine did well is because he didn’t over-react. He usually bridles and becomes quite antsy when such callers are put to air. His job is not to censor his callers unless they became obnoxious. By engaging the person calling in he was able to ensure the discussion did not get out of hand. It’s also fair to say, the Nazi stuff came up out the blue at the end of that call and he had no way of knowing that was where the conversation would end.

  3. Remember the GST debate was all about a birthday cake. There’s a hint now that SSM (ME) will be all abut a wedding cake.
    I suppose many people are only able to argue things if they reduce them to something they understand.

  4. Tricot

    I do not think there has been any sort of political axiom re Labor LOTO and quitting after a defeat.
    Calwell ran for at least three elections and Whitlam for two then won one more then lost two. Hawke won his first then Keating won one then lost one. He CHOSE to quit I think. Beazley ran twice and lost twice before being remove. The second time he got a worse result than the first time. Latham was pushed out after his first loss but well it was Latham. The Rudd Gillard years were a mess so if either lost they were in trouble because the party was divided. Shorten is having his second run.

    I think perhaps these days there is a two defeats rule ie lose two and you go – especially if you seem to be going backwards.

  5. Crikey

    No campaigners are telling their volunteers to stick to the “slippery slope” line. As the document says: “The grassroots NO campaign engages people’s natural sense of caution and suspicion.” Doorknockers are given a script, including possible conflicts they will encounter and how to answer them, broken down into different age groups and their likely responses. Engaging this natural sense of fear, forms a free-floating basis of the No conversations. In their opening lines, doorknockers are encouraged to mention they are voting no because they “don’t trust what the government will do”.
    …
    If they do receive sustained argument from someone whose door they have knocked on, volunteers are encouraged to wrap up the conversation, say that they don’t hate anyone, they’re just worried about freedom of speech and children’s education. If they think they’ve clinched support, they are supposed to invoke the same two non-marriage-related topics (kids ‘n’ freedom) to make sure that support becomes a No vote.

  6. daretotread @ #356 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 6:16 pm

    Tricot

    I do not think there has been any sort of political axiom re Labor LOTO and quitting after a defeat.
    Calwell ran for at least three elections and Whitlam for two then won one more then lost two. Hawke won his first then Keating won one then lost one. He CHOSE to quit I think. Beazley ran twice and lost twice before being remove. The second time he got a worse result than the first time. Latham was pushed out after his first loss but well it was Latham. The Rudd Gillard years were a mess so if either lost they were in trouble because the party was divided. Shorten is having his second run.

    I think perhaps these days there is a two defeats rule ie lose two and you go – especially if you seem to be going backwards.

    SWhorten’s in for the long haul.

    Shorten has just turned 50. Burke and Plibersek are still in their 40s and Albanese is about 55.

    Turnbull turns 63 in a month’s time and Abbott is 60.

    Labor have a team in place for the future.

  8. GG

    I think Shorten is doing a decent job, but if he were to lose the next election and quite a few seats, then I think he should quit. Two goes against rabble such as this Lib government is quite enough.

    I do not think people change their minds if they have voted twice for the other side.

  9. GG

    Faine could have dumped him. Thats why they have seven second delay.

    However in terms of the debate I agreewith you. People heard the irrational hate and Faine did show his disagreement. He could have said in stronger terms but why do so when your guest is the Equality Commissioner

    People heard with their own ears and there was no normalisation of hate speech in his reaction

  10. Labor leader Bill Shorten today was likened to a Hogwarts villain as voters were told not to let him “slither” into office.

    “If he gets to slither in the Australian public will feel the effect,” Treasurer Scott Morrison told Parliament.

    “If he went to Hogwarts, he would have been in the house of Slytherin.

    “The only difference between him and other members of Slytherin is that some of them came good.”

    The attack was accompanied by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg referring to “Blackout Bill”, and calling Labor’s energy spokesman Mark Butler “Brownout Butler”.

    The personal attacks on Mr Shorten have intensified as the Government scrambles to present a coherent energy policy aimed at reducing household electricity costs.

    They’re scrambling to get themselves out of a deep hole.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/government-ramps-up-attacks-on-labor-leader-as-it-scrambles-to-defend-its-energy-policy/news-story/f3989569eebf76e40c4914c90f1c9c92

  11. Puff
    My parents would have told you that under the new and everlasting covenant Christ’s sacrifice to save us from sin had to be repeated at least weekly and preferably daily
    To be frank, in my experience Christ’s sacrificed body tastes like cardboard and his blood like very cheap wine
    (the sound you hear is my father turning in his grave while my mother at 99 seems to have forgotten most of this)

  12. Question @ #350 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 5:59 pm

    P1,

    Yep, she blamed Tony (which happens to be true) and then says Turnbull looks like he’s going to do a re-run.

    I know many people think Murphy is a Turnbull stooge, especially if you read the comments, but I just don’t get it myself, and as a Guardian reader and Insider’s watcher I see most of her stuff. I find Tingle to be far worse, but other’s don’t seem to be bothered by her.

    I guess it takes all sorts (of partisans) to make up the world 🙂

    murphy and Lenore taylor at the Guardian both seem to have a crush on Turnbull.

    Their pieces are always through the prism of Turnbull being the best man but not able to do his job properly because of the disunity generated by Abbott and his evil forces of enmity.

    Murphy is obviously getting drops from the PM’s office and encouragement to write certain story line that cast Turnbull as the put upon and misunderstood do gooder..

  14. Just read in the SMH that Premier Andrews attended a fund raiser for a charity, spotted Mick Gatto, and immediately walked out.

    Wise move.

    The report said Bill Shorten was also at the fundraiser.

    Does anyone know if Bill was made aware of Gatto’s presence, and if he left also?

    If he didn’t leave, fake news will have a birthday party over it..

  17. guytaur @ #361 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    GG

    Faine could have dumped him. Thats why they have seven second delay.

    However in terms of the debate I agreewith you. People heard the irrational hate and Faine did show his disagreement. He could have said in stronger terms but why do so when your guest is the Equality Commissioner

    People heard with their own ears and there was no normalisation of hate speech in his reaction

    Can agree with all of that.

    However, you might want to apply these principles to your own posts and comments from time to time.

  18. Mr Shorten is doing a good job.

    Labor has been in front on Two Party terms. As he will win his seat he is popular where it counts.

    Its that simple. Thus the desperation. This includes using Harry Potter who appeals to progressive voters as has been noted in studies. For detail Google is your friend.

  21. Regarding the scripts for “no” door knockers:

    I wonder if they are being told to dress in their Sunday best and go around in pairs like the JWs? Will they drag along their kids to make a point? Should be interesting.

  23. Good evening all,

    AGL has asked for ninety days to consider the governments proposal to either keep the plant open for five more years or to sell.

    AGL has also stated it will present a ” alternative “option proposal at the same time to ensure no base load power would be lost if and or when the plant closes.

    In summary nothing new has resulted and any decisln has been put off for three months. Nero fiddling while Rome burns comes to mind to describe the government atm.

    With regard to alternative options read gas and no coal as was always on the cards.

    Turnbull and Frydenberg have achieved nothing.

    Cheers.

  24. Zoomster

    Tony Burke was excellent with his Harry Potter references. Calling Speaker Bishop Dolores Umbridge was one of the memorable ones

  28. Rob Stott‏Verified account @Rob_Stott · 6h6 hours ago

    Canavan’s “grow a spine” comment when the high suicide rate of young LGBT people is well-documented is about as callous as it gets

  29. As well,

    It would not surprise me if labor has been waiting for the AGL non event and will tomorrow make some announcement re the policy direction needed to ensure power supply over the summer. It was hinting at that today and perhaps shadow cabinet tonight will put the final stamp on its response and get on the front foot tomorrow. The government is going nothing except blame labor so there is a vacuum available for labor to fill.

    All speculation of course.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  31. Hi all

    In order to make a little more coin, I am considering going into freelance journalism as I have hit a potential goldmine: The “X is a masterstroke for Turnbull” template. It’s easy. I just write up a generic template about how (THING THAT OCCURRED IN THE LAST WEEK) is exactly what Turnbull needs to turn his fortunes around and (TURNBULL’S REACTION/NON-REACTION) was a clever move that has now wedged Bill Shorten and Labor and finalise with some crap about Albanese/Plibersek/Bowen being more vocal/quiet in the last few days and speculate that something must be happening behind the scenes in the ALP. After that, just fill in the blanks and submit the article. Doesn’t matter if it ends up being wrong. It’ll be forgotten in a week and then I can write the next one. Easy money.

  32. **AGL has also stated it will present a ” alternative “option proposal at the same time to ensure no base load power would be lost if and or when the plant closes.**
    That’ll p-off Trunchbull.

  33. AGL has also stated it will present a ” alternative “option proposal at the same time to ensure no base load power would be lost if and or when the plant closes.

    It looks as if AGL might be planning to pull the rug out from under Turnbull. With any luck their “alternative” option might just be something that Shorten can grab and run with.

  34. **will tomorrow make some announcement re the policy direction needed**
    That might be good. But the Libs are in a slow motion whirlpool of their own making. Round and round they go. They cant get out and nobody is reaching out with a stick for them to grab (the Nats are just chucking rocks at them).

    Let em drown slowly, I say.

  35. Just a note about PPM and election results. Kevin Rudd was PPM in July 2013 not long after he deposed Gillard 53-31 Abbott, but Abbott still won the election almost 53-47 in September 2013.

  36. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/northcote-byelection-greens-pick-their-woman-for-key-battle-of-the-north-20170911-gyez5c.html

    The Victorian Greens hope a local Indigenous woman can finally achieve the political breakthrough in Melbourne’s inner-north the minor party has been threatening for years.

    Lidia Thorpe, from one of the state’s most prominent Aboriginal families, will take on Labor hopeful Clare Burns in the upcoming Northcote byelection to fill the State Parliament seat left vacant by the death of the ALP’s Fiona Richardson.

  38. Darn,

    The alternative proposal will be gas which is exactly what AGL has intended. Labor was pushing the gas angle today so perhaps that was no coincidence.

    Anyway, we shall see.

    Off to a BBQ now so a good night to all.

    Cheers.

  39. Rod_Hagen‏ @Rod_Hagen · 13m13 minutes ago

    1: When monogamy finally became more common than polygamy in some places, it remained a property transaction between 2 men: father & groom.

    2: It always surprises me people pretend monogamous m/f marriage has trad “priority”. It hasn’t. OT, Judaism etc long recognised poly rels.

  40. Pegasus @ #388 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 6:53 pm

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/northcote-byelection-greens-pick-their-woman-for-key-battle-of-the-north-20170911-gyez5c.html

    The Victorian Greens hope a local Indigenous woman can finally achieve the political breakthrough in Melbourne’s inner-north the minor party has been threatening for years.

    Lidia Thorpe, from one of the state’s most prominent Aboriginal families, will take on Labor hopeful Clare Burns in the upcoming Northcote byelection to fill the State Parliament seat left vacant by the death of the ALP’s Fiona Richardson.

    Buckleys!

  41. Rational Leftist @ #381 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 6:45 pm

    Hi all

    In order to make a little more coin, I am considering going into freelance journalism as I have hit a potential goldmine: The “X is a masterstroke for Turnbull” template … Easy money.

    Great idea … except that you would be competing against the entire CPG and in fact nearly all of the journalists in Australia. You may need to spice it up a bit by including photos of Mal in a leather jacket, downing a beer or holding a baby.

  42. Labor needs to go negative, in addition to pushing their positive plans. They don’t have to go ad hominem. That wouldn’t work for Labor anyway because they don’t have a large media organisation actively boosting and shielding them. But go after the Coalition’s record. Blame them for the chaos in the NBN and energy policy. Call out the lies, attempted rewriiting of history and the blithering incompletence.

  43. Simon Katich @ #382 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 6:48 pm

    **AGL has also stated it will present a ” alternative “option proposal at the same time to ensure no base load power would be lost if and or when the plant closes.**
    That’ll p-off Trunchbull.

    Not if you listened to PM, where all you heard was Turnbull and Lydenberg blaming Labor. Oh and a breathless reporter telling us how great the results of the meeting were.

  44. [Player One
    …

    Read this bit, from the same article, and tell me you don’t think Murphy is making excuses for Turnbull:

    Well, folks, no one created this particular problem, apart from the Coalition under prime minister Abbott. The current imbalance in the energy system is the sum of Abbott’s decisions.]

    Yes, Abbott fu#&ed up energy policy.

    [Looking forward, the government needs solutions. Turnbull didn’t make the mess Abbott made on energy policy. In fact, he argued forcefully against the botch-up, to great personal cost. But now he has to clean it up, and clean up against the persistent forces of external rent-seeking and internal irrationality.]

    Yes, Malcolm needs to fix the mess. History says it’s not his direct fault, but it’s his problem.

    There are two courses;
    1. He can live up to his formerly expressed views and establish a decent policy;
    or
    2. He can give into the RWNJs again.

    [She is not castigating Turnbull in this article, she is making excuses for him while she waits for the “real Mal” to step up and sort out the mess.]

    The article is laying out the state of play re energy where she correctly sheets home the blame and then lays out the possible outcomes.

    One would leave him with a good policy but potentially weaken him in the Partyroom while the other would maintain the policy vacuum but protect his internal position.

    Where is this making excuses for him?

  46. OC
    Well, I never said anything about sticking to script and not wandering off into that which should be rendered unto Ceaser, and the embrace of the forgiveness for profit model.

    Oakeshott Country @ #361 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 5:58 pm

    Puff
    My parents would have told you that under the new and everlasting covenant Christ’s sacrifice to save us from sin had to be repeated at least weekly and preferably daily
    To be frank, in my experience Christ’s sacrificed body tastes like cardboard and his blood like very cheap wine
    (the sound you hear is my father turning in his grave while my mother at 99 seems to have forgotten most of this)

  49. They only valid criticisms of Labor on energy I have heard are:
    a) they didn’t properly regulate gas exports.
    b) Rudd didn’t handle well a delay in implementing CPRS in 2010.
    c) implemented a carbon tax and not selling it properly, they called it a tax and it looked like a broken election promise.

    In fact Labor in 2008 – 2013 was very poor at selling and defending their actions. Witness the spending to avoid the GFC.

  50. Barney in Go Dau @ #394 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 6:59 pm

    There are two courses;
    1. He can live up to his formerly expressed views and establish a decent policy;
    or
    2. He can give into the RWNJs again.

    Only someone who still believes in “the real Mal” would expect anything other that option 2.

    Where is this making excuses for him?

    Should I point out again how Mal has now been PM longer than Abbott yet Murphy still believes Mal has zero blame attached to him for the mess we are in? Or should I instead recount how Murphy believes that Mal was “born to lead … but only if people are willing to be led” (paraphrasing – can’t be bothered going back to find the actual quote. I posted it yesterday).

    If you still can’t see it, then you probably never will, and I guess we should both just move on.

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