Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor gains a point on two-party preferred from Essential, but the pollster joins Ipsos in finding a rise in Bill Shorten’s disapproval rating.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, out from 53-47 last week, with primary vote numbers not available at this stage. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 46%; Bill Shorten up one to 36% and up five to 47%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 43-29, compared with 41-27 last time. Respondents were also asked if they favoured a series of measures on energy policy, which found strong support for regulating power prices, increasing investment in renewable energy and storage, reserving gas for domestic use, and a “clean-up of existing coal-fired power stations”, while lesser but still majority support for forcing energy companies to help their customers use less power and bringing privatised coal generators back into public ownership. Twenty-eight per cent rated Labor most likely to deliver lower power prices compared with 19% for the Coalition, with 35% for no difference and 18% for don’t know.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary votes are Coalition steady on 36%, Labor steady on 37%, Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up a point to 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
    Perhaps the amendment of the Marriage Act should go all the way in separation of church and state?
    Make the signing and witnessing of the contract a purely administrative function, carried out by public servants in the offices of Births, Deaths and Marriages and if couples wish to have flamboyant ceremonies of whatever flavour, they are free to do so but they carry no legal weight.

    Hiya Lord. Of course, the “flamboyant ceremonies” that have been conducted in the past already carry no legal weight. They are ornaments added on to the deed of notarising and witnessing the existence of a union between two persons….

    But I agree with you. I would not confer on anyone at all the right to “celebrate” a marriage unless they were willing to do so on a completely non-discriminatory basis. After all, no-one forces a person to become a celebrant. They choose this role of their own volition. If anyone wishes to become a celebrant – that is, to exercise a civil delegation – they should agree to take all comers, regardless of their sexuality, gender, past marital status, race, ethnicity, language or religious affiliations. We are talking about equal rights of admission to a civil estate.

    We should not be in the business of entrenching sectarian privilege.

  2. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-14/hopes-for-federal-anti-corruption-body-dashed/8944082

    A parliamentary committee has stopped short of recommending a federal anti-corruption commission, which if adopted would have broad powers to tackle institutional, political and electoral wrongdoing.

    ::::
    But the committee’s report recommends only that the Government give “careful consideration” to establishing and investigating a National Integrity Commission.

    :::::
    Former NSW Supreme Court judge Anthony Whealy QC, now president of Transparency International, described the committee’s decision as “a damp squib”.

    ::::
    Mr Whealy criticised Labor and Coalition members of the parliamentary committee for putting the proposed commission in the “too hard basket”.

    “We all know the shortcomings of the present system and it’s only politicians, especially the Coalition and some people in the Labor party, who’ve been holding out,” he said.

  3. Player One
    briefly @ #1695 Friday, September 15th, 2017 – 5:43 pm

    fwiw, I tried to check to see if my survey response could be read from outside a sealed envelope. Nup. Not at all. This is furphy propagated by the NO voices.

    No it isn’t. Just hold your envelope up to the light. It’s easy to see.

    This is incorrect. I folded the form, plan d it in the envelope provided and sealed it. The markings cannot be seen from either side even when held up to sunlight.

  4. Player One

    Had a thought related to this proxy voting… what do you think about giving your vote to a gay person? It’s not appropriate for us to give out rights by majority vote. But if someone wants to vote to claim these rights for themselves, then we can allow and assist them to do that.

  5. I have just looked at the return envelope of one of my returns and despite the light being incredibly bright, I could not see the response. I call BS on this claim.

  6. Yay! One less vote for the No camp. My eldest son, who would’ve voted No, just decided to throw his vote away. Literally. : )

    Oh no no! He needs to vote! The whole “don’t vote because it’s pointless and a flawed process!” message is only meant for potential ‘yes’ voters.

    In fact, you should also abstain to balance him out or it’s unfair.

    (Above is sarcasm, in case it isn’t obvious)

  7. It’s all an expensive mess; expensive in money and wasted lives.

    Mehdi and a number of other men withdrew their claims for asylum after Iranian detainee Reza Barati was killed during a 2014 riot at the Manus Island detention centre.

    The men refused to participate in the refugee determination process and have been given a “negative” refugee status, which means they must leave PNG.

    But Mehdi said the threat of further detention will not make the men go back to their countries.

    “It’s just a sucker punch,” he said.

    “After four years, under torture and in illegal detention, it doesn’t matter, four more years or 40 more years, no problem.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-15/asylum-seekers-on-manus-face-indefinite-stay-in-png/8947356

  8. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-15/same-sex-marriage-extra-survey-form-lands-in-the-mailbox/8950588

    For those who do want to take part, but their survey form has landed at a former address, you can claim it back.

    The ABS advises anyone who has not received a survey form by September 25 to contact the ABS, and a replacement will be sent out.

    That new form will have a new barcode, and any previous form that has been sent back in will not be counted.

  9. Rational Leftist,
    The whole “don’t vote because it’s pointless and a flawed process message” is only meant for potential ‘yes’ voters.
    But, but, that’s the reason he gave! ; )

    In fact, you should also abstain to balance him out or it’s unfair.

    Yeah. Nah. : )

  10. That new form will have a new barcode, and any previous form that has been sent back in will not be counted.

    This allows for…. even more fraud!!!!

  11. South Korea’s military fired two ballistic missiles in a swift response to North Korea’s latest missile test on Friday, the Yonhap news agency in Seoul reported.

    The action is unusual and shows a toughening response to North Korea’s provocations, despite South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Thursday ruling out the return of nuclear weapons to South Korea because of fears it would spark an arms race.

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/south-korea-responds-to-norths-latest-missile-test-with-one-of-its-own-20170915-gyiad7.html

  12. So Turnbull defends the church the right to deny a marriage because of someone’s political views (because that is what the plebiscite/survey has made it).

    It may be legal, but is it moral?

    I can see this is a pushback to the right confirming religions will still be able to discriminate, but is it morally the right thing to say?

  13. Family get together today; pretty right wing bunch. One brother complaining he now has yes and rainbows in the windows thanks to 18 year old daughter. All of next generation yes with gusto. My generation all but one; parliament should have done their job; just get on with it already. One no.

  14. @YaThinkN · 24m24 minutes ago

    Can someone remind this dropkick Roberts he is a Senator for Queensland, of which vast swathes of the state ONLY get ABC radio? #TheStupid

  15. I’m really looking forward to Roberts appearance in court next week. Let’s just see how his arrogance stands up to being cross examined.

  16. JR
    So turnbull defends the church the right to deny a marriage because of someone’s political views (because that is what the plebiscite/survey has made it).

    The real concern is nursing/ aged care homes. The catholic and presbyterian own lots of them. catholic said will sack anyone who supports equality, prestys refuse to provide services, such as marriage.

    turnbull needs to give assurances now that no-one will be evicted from religious aged care/ nursing homes because of their views on equality. The oldies see the news and their impressions will be that their votes can be seen under light and a yes vote will mean they can be kicked out because our prime minister says that is ok to do.

  17. As a thought experiment,it is interesting to thing what would be the response in papers like the AFR, if for example a Labor government ordered a coal power plant to be closed as per its planned date even though a company wanted to extend its life.

    From the AFR:

    “The Prime Minister must appreciate that the AGL CEO is answerable to a board which has fiduciary duties which cannot be overridden by Prime Ministerial fiat. He cannot direct the company to make a decision against the long-term interests of its shareholders,” Mr Bradley said.
    Despite the warning, Mr Bradley didn’t think that Mr Turnbull had overstepped the mark yet.
    “The Prime Minister is looking to turn over every rock he possibly can to find the best solution to what is a terrible policy mess that has been created by a decade of bad decisions by both state and federal governments,” Mr Bradley said.”

    Has the term ‘sovereign risk’ appeared in the press this week regarding the government and AGL?

  18. Re the fake survey / plebiscite, I wonder if this is a potential source of error for many people who live in units rather than single dwellings?

    I voted in the NSW Local Government Elections last Saturday. My name was crossed of the list when I received my ballot paper. My address is registered as NNN, XXXX TTTT, YYYY where NNN is my street number, ‘XXXX TTTT’ the street name and ‘YYYY’ the suburb. I have been listed at that address for many years, since I moved here.

    However, Street number ‘NNN’ is the address of a high rise building with dozens of units, including mine. I don’t know why my unit number wasn’t on the list they used. I would have supplied it when I moved here all those years ago, in time to chuck out Malcolm Fraser.

    If they don’t have the unit number for whatever reason, my form will be delivered to the ‘Secretary’ mailbox. Since I’m the Secretary, I’ll still get it. Maybe I’ll see other residents’ forms in there as well.

  19. Interesting re nursing homes Boris, I can see that scenario, especially if it is reported in tabloid TV ‘current affairs ‘ shows.

    If Roberts is in the High Court next week, it may give us an idea of how Barnaby is going to go.

  20. lizzie, thanks.
    Labor has much to remedy when they win the next election. I expect Dreyfus has a considerable file or series of same of those who are due for early retirement.

  21. Unfortunately i do wish to destroy our Australian identity, culture & way of life, and do wish to push for multiculturalism and don’t mind saying sorry sincerely & often; So i would hope that the ABC would also give my views some time & space and representation not just the ones Pauline promotes.

    Well said Booleanbach!

  22. Margaret Simons

    On the best available estimates (which are necessarily partial and imperfect) 3,000 journalists have lost their jobs in Australia over the last five years – many in regional areas. If we assume an average $70,000 salary cost each, back of the envelope figuring suggests it would take over $200mn a year just to get back to where we were.

    Or to offer another benchmark, the government gave the Australian Broadcasting Corporation $41.4million over three years for “enhanced newsgathering” in the 2016 triennial funding round – but this was a cut from the $60 million a year for the same program that the previous Labor government had provided.

    In other words, Xenophon’s fund doesn’t even keep up with money that has already been cut from government support for news reporting in Australia – including local and regional news.

    Speaking about the ABC, what of the One Nation backed move for an inquiry into its “competitive neutrality” – that is, whether it unfairly competes with its commercial counterparts? The devil will be in the detail. Who will conduct the inquiry, and what are the terms of reference?

    Certainly, there is a lot of angst about this in the ABC headquarters at Ultimo. It is one of the greatest threats of recent times.

    Most of all, we need a media policy. Actual policy, with strategic objectives.

    Anyone seen one recently?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/15/the-new-media-ownership-law-doesnt-address-the-real-crisis-journalism-is-facing?CMP=share_btn_tw

  23. monica

    Labor always tends to be too even-handed, fair or soft-hearted. They need to brace themselves and do their utmost to reverse the imbalances put in place by the Libs. Rudd was too soft and lost the opportunity.

  24. Quite obviously, following attempts to obtain privileged protection for their discriminatory intentions, the deists should be legally prevented from discriminating against any person on the basis of their beliefs.

    This will have to go to such things as beliefs in relation to…

    same sex marriage
    the re-marriage of divorced persons
    marriage between persons of different religions or those who have no religion
    the sexuality or gender of any person
    abortion
    contraception
    voluntary assisted dying

    It is high time to re-assert the primacy of secular values and practices.

  25. Writer in Residence‏ @MikeCullen73 · 3h3 hours ago

    Uses image from anniversary of cronulla riots to claim Catholics are being bashed by Yes voters. Reverse image search kids. Takes a second.

  26. mimhoff
    It’s almost like the ABS isn’t the right department to run this.

    But, but, but, they ran such a successful Census last year.

  27. JR
    Interesting re nursing homes Boris, I can see that scenario, especially if it is reported in tabloid TV ‘current affairs ‘ shows.

    Yar, we have abbott, howard and the rest of the pack crying think of the children. But what about the oldies kicked out onto the street because they support equality.

  28. briefly
    There is a reason why the fastest growing religion in Australia if “none”. You do not grow your reach with discrimination. Leave them to it I say.

  29. briefly:

    The other one that comes to mind: should infertile or senior couples be allowed to marry? Seeing as marriage is about family and and children and all.

  30. That light on the envelope is correct. 5 yes, yes, yes, yes ,yes votes (sounding a bit like sally there 🙂 ) in our house.

    But placed torch flat against envelope, shining up to me, and could clearly see the yes box marked. Turn envelope over if you can’t see it clearly the first time.

  31. confessions
    briefly:

    The other one that comes to mind: should infertile or senior couples be allowed to marry? Seeing as marriage is about family and and children and all.

    Yes, the hypocrisies and fantasies collide with each other at the altar.

  32. there are gay oldies in nursing homes, some enlightened ones allow them to share a room, others dont.

    But if they want to get married once equality is passed many will have to leave the aged care they are in, incurring substantial financial penalties, all with the blessing of turnbull.

  33. lizzie
    I am so hoping that Labor goes in hard. Just all those failed Lib pollies who’ve been gifted well paid gov’t jobs for starters.

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