BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Mild improvement for the Coalition in the poll aggregate this week after better results from Essential Research and YouGov (though not Newspoll).

The Coalition recovers just a little bit from its low base in this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, which incorporates new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov. The Coalition is up half a point on the primary vote and 0.3% on two-party preferred, although the bigger mover is One Nation, which came in higher from all three pollsters. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. After a leap last week on the back of the monthly Essential Research numbers, Malcolm Turnbull’s is down again on the leadership trend after a very different result from Newspoll. The bigger picture on these measures is how remarkably little change there has been since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. A vote could still be some way off. There are 134 clauses in the bill and they appear to be debating them one by one, and sometimes moving amendments on a given clause, though some clauses are going through immediately. They’ve just completed clause 57, including a discussion of what constitutes opening a locked box.

  4. I can’t quite understand why Australians (Bishop, the Australian) are being such dicks to Jacinta.

    Surely they didn’t expect her to lie to protect her countryman Barnaby?

    It can’t just be young – only 3 years younger than Macron.

    It can’t just be left wing – she’s being treated more harshly than Sanders or Corbyn.

    It can’t just be that she’s female, May is being treated with a lot more respect than she deserves.

    Maybe just a combination of all of the above I guess?

    She is the leader of our closest friend and ally. A country that sits on the Council of Australia Governments, and provisions exist to make NZ a state if they wished.

    Show some goddam respect.

  7. Anton

    Go to any high care nursing or palliative care
    Facility for a few hours and it will shake you to your core.
    Remember we are not just dealing with elderly people. Children and adults of all description succumb to terminal illnesses such as cancer and degenerative diseases such as motor neurone diseases, multiple sclorosis, Parkinson’s just to name a few.

    For me it is cruel and unusual punishment.

    And the idea that Christians who use this as a crux cos of Jesus suffering on the cross as something dignified are bloody nuts. Despite medication etc, the suffering by these people is immeasurable, sustained and ongoing and absolutely devastating to all concerned.

  10. Voice Endeavour

    They are terrified that Australians might notice that a Labour government does not mean the end of the world or the second coming of Stalin .

  11. On organ donation.

    There are a number of conditions which have to be met before a body is acceptable for donation, so it is not inevitable that all would be accepted. IMV it is the relatives (maybe with less knowledge of the person’s desire, who are feeling guilty) who try to prevent the donation.

  12. victoria @ #81 Friday, October 20th, 2017 – 9:53 am

    Anton

    Why assisted dying laws are required.
    For those patients who ask to be knocked off, the medicos can’t oblige them under law. That is precisely the point.

    I admire your simplicity. 🙂
    One problem is relatives that don’t know how to let go and insist on a loved one being kept ‘alive’ or at least ‘un-dead’.
    It is hard, but there is a time to let go and allow a person to go peacefully, with or without assistance, according to their wishes.

  13. [And the idea that Christians who use this as a crux cos of Jesus suffering on the cross as something dignified are bloody nuts. Despite medication etc, the suffering by these people is immeasurable, sustained and ongoing and absolutely devastating to all concerned.]

    the protracted painful dying is always a prime opportunity for the church to to drag people in who face the fear and uncertainty of death. jesus is the answer and by the way a bequest to the church will do no harm. there is comfort in having a priest there as there is in having anyone there who can offer comfort, but at times they are like no more than vultures picking on a not yet dead carcass.

    i would expect the church to demand that a priest be present as an independent observer if vlad passes.

  15. Vic

    Berejikllian is being harassed for being female by radio jocks (also cos shes from the moderate wing). Shes also not a visionary leader and more managerial. I get the feeling shes not 100% okay with being the leader in public all the time.

    Shes still a shit premier though.

  16. even if vlad goes ahead it will be subject to the same delays and delays and bureaucratic restrictions that we saw imposed on RU486 and medicinal mary jane.

    it will be available but whether people can access it?

  17. IOM

    As with all LNP governments they are shit at running things as they do their neo liberal agenda.

    However despite their concentration on cars at least they are building railways and light rail. Very unusual for an LNP government

  20. Voice Endeavour @ #104 Friday, October 20th, 2017 – 10:12 am

    I can’t quite understand why Australians (Bishop, the Australian) are being such dicks to Jacinta.

    Surely they didn’t expect her to lie to protect her countryman Barnaby?

    It can’t just be young – only 3 years younger than Macron.

    It can’t just be left wing – she’s being treated more harshly than Sanders or Corbyn.

    It can’t just be that she’s female, May is being treated with a lot more respect than she deserves.

    Maybe just a combination of all of the above I guess?

    She is the leader of our closest friend and ally. A country that sits on the Council of Australia Governments, and provisions exist to make NZ a state if they wished.

    Show some goddam respect.

    Yes, for a start get her name right!

  29. Boris @ #84 Friday, October 20th, 2017 – 9:55 am

    [Though, I thought that in Palliative care they pretty much knock you off pretty fast. Wrong?]

    depends on the doctor, the hospital, their beliefs, and their relationship with the patient and the family.

    get a doctor who has known the patient and family for a long time, who is not constrained by religous beliefs and setting is a private setting, hospital or home, and the time may be chosen.

    get a doctor in a public hospital, constrained by beliefs, new to family and patient, and it is a long drawn out process painful for all that you would not allow an animal to go through.

    well said Boris

  30. VE
    I can’t quite understand why Australians (Bishop, the Australian) are being such dicks to Jacinta.

    usual single childless leftist woman in power.
    sherridan laments nats should have been awarded govt as had the largest primary vote.

    conducting search now to find similar articles where he laments Clinton should be pres as she had more votes and Gillard was a worthy choice as she had more votes.
    Even Shorten should be PM as labor had the highest number of primary votes, sure add the lnp and nats votes to the libs then they are higher but then you have to add the greens to labor and labor are still higher.

    may be a while on this search, bye

  31. Boris
    VE
    I can’t quite understand why Australians (Bishop, the Australian) are being such dicks to Jacinta.

    Cos she is a Labour figure. Cos she extends a share of power to the Gs. Cos she has been able to unite the parliamentary numbers to displace the Nationals. Cos she represents the success of everything the Right loathe and fear. Cos Labour’s win in NZ heralds the defeat of the LNP in Australia.

    They will immediately set out to destroy the usurper. It’s instinctive for them.

  32. Why are certain Right Wing political and media figures being such ‘dicks’ to the new NZ PM? The question sort of answers itself.

  34. Sara‏ @_sara_jade_ · 18h18 hours ago

    Turnbull accuses Bill Shorten of “being irrational” (a projection) then grabs his nose knowing it’s a lie #QT pic.twitter.com/WbSVxyzJ9Q

    :large

  35. I’m surprised that the Speaker formally recognizes each vote as a “conscience vote” prior to the division. All that matters is the numbers on each side and it’s for the parties to decide internally how their members will make their choices.

  36. guytaur
    RWitherspoon: Happy #SpiritDay! Today and everyday, let’s take a stand against bullying. Stand up for LGBTQ youth! @GLAAD

    Great image!!

  38. The fuck did the notion the largest single party has a right to govern come from ? Its manifestly idiotic. Consider (in the absence of the Coalition) you had 34 Labor , 33 Liberals and 33 Nationals. Does anyone think Labor skills have government in that scenario (beyond the belief that Labor should always have Government because they are inherently superior , which isn’t really relevant from a democratic perspective) ?

  40. Boris @9.55 i agree that the final stage of life is managed better in thr community (gp) setting than the expert instututional setting. Palliative experts while highly skilled are more ‘expert’ at knowing what dose of opioid ensures no pain or consciousness but can’t be construed as speeding someone to their death. Ligislation should help protect gp’s who escalate doses appropriately to terminate suffering.

  42. Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #100 Friday, October 20th, 2017 – 10:07 am

    I understand if our laws outlawing the importation of heroin were changed, that drug could greatly assist people in intolerable pain.

    More victims of the ‘war’ on drugs.

    Heroin is used in the UK with great effect in care of the terminally ill. The Menzies Govt 1953 under international pressure driven by the USA banned it here, despite pleas from the medical profession, then the NSW Branch of the British Medical Association.

    Following international pressure, believed to have originated in the USA, Australia banned the production and importation of heroin in May 1953. Existing heroin stocks could be used medicinally till exhausted but could not be replenished. The decision to ban medicinal heroin was criticised at the time by the then Director General of the Commonwealth Department of Health, the Presidents of several Royal Colleges (Surgeons, Physicians and Obstetricians andGynaecologists) and the President of the British Medical Association (before the Australian Medical Association was established). So if the use of heroin is now evil, was it already evil when used medicinally before 1953 or did it only become so when used recreationally after it was prohibited?

    https://johnmenadue.com/alex-wodak-why-is-illicit-drug-use-considered-evil/

  43. Jacinda is also part of a wave of awareness around the world that Emperor Neoliberalism has no clothes . Long may that wave spread.

  44. Cash was out squawking her success.

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 21h21 hours ago
    Number of months unemployment rate was below 5.5% under each govt

    Abbott / Turnbull 0
    Rudd / Gillard 51

  46. Bludgers all, I read through the dispute yesterday on VAD. It’s an issue that stirs strong passions. I hope this conversation can be approached in a spirit of understanding, in the knowledge that we all head the same way whether we will it or not.

    There’s a lot of dying to be done. Lots. That is not in question. There will be dying without aid and with ease. And there will be dying in ignorance. There will be sudden death. There will be dying without help. There will be reluctant dying and brave dying and dying without succour of any kind. There will be contradictory dying and peremptory and cursory dying. There will be presence of mind and kindness. There will be remembrance and there will be the inexplicable mercy of forgetfulness.

    An assistant in death is a paradox. They are not wanted but they may be indispensable. They may be wise, but what do they do with the woe? The assistant is acquainted with compassion and pity; they have knowledge of the dying, the just-dead and the so-bereaved. They are observers of pain and disease; of the now-hot/then-cold facts of mortality. These gaunt fellows – these graduates – are among us all the time. They visit, unwelcome and too soon.

    They make themselves right at home among the living as among the sick; and freely they share their sorrows. The more sorrow there is, strangely the more will be found. Sorrows are like betting slips at the bookies’ ring on Cup Day. They are everywhere discarded and blown, pink and white and blue petals from the wilting flowers, blown around underfoot. Purple for anguish. Red for agony. Yellow for nausea. White for fear. Orange for vomit. Black for diarrhoea. Browns for thirst. Green for terror. Grey for the End and for Word of God. Silhouette for the last breath.

    What to do with the sorrows, oh what to do with the stale flowers.

    Lilac. What the bloody hell will be done with the lilac? Oh, dry me a chilli; catch me a fish. Shuck an oyster and peel a plum. Bake apples with dates and raisins. Wilt spinach and poach eggs. Sing Imagine, like this…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSc-u1o4Xak

  47. Maybe just a combination of all of the above I guess?

    Yep, she’s a perfect storm of what the conservatives hate. I would add one more factor to that list though: electorally successful.

    The conservatives, especially the news hacks, don’t mind a leftist like that if they’re just splintering the left-of-centre vote for them. They even don’t mind when they can unite the L-o-C vote but fail to win the election because some of the “softer” opinion writers can pinch off an opinion piece about how that leader “Made a good effort/was an interesting experiment but the country isn’t ready for that kind of leader and (centre-left party) should aim to appeal more to the middle, with more sensible policies next time, if it wants to win.”

  48. Well done to whoever said on PB wtte “It’s like forcing every car buyer to buy a horse and cart as well.”

    The very sensible Stephen Long.

    The bottom line? On the face of it the policy looks as if it will encourage more use of gas — which is very expensive and a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions — while also propping up polluting coal-fired power plants which are becoming increasingly expensive as they age.

    The NEG does nothing to make coal-fired power generators bear any cost for the emission of greenhouse gases which contribute to global warming, let alone the broader health impacts of air pollution from toxic chemicals and particulate matter in coal.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-19/national-energy-guarantee-trifecta-missing-detail/9063500

  49. The * did the notion the largest single party has a right to govern come from ?

    The parties that always have the right to govern are conservatives under their variou party badges and brands. The goal posts are shifted as required to justify this: the single party with the most votes but still a minority (NZ 2017), party with the highest 2PP (SA 2014; Coalition in early counting, Federal election 2010) or most seats (Coalition 1998) or, if none of these can be conjured up, the voters had a ‘fit of absent mindedness’ (Abbott, 2014).

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