Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor bounces back in the Essential poll after a brief lull, as respondents mark the government down on the National Broadband Network.

Courtesy of The Guardian, this week’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead bouncing back to 54-46, after two weeks at 52-48. Primary votes will have to wait for later. The poll also has particularly interesting supplementary questions this week in relation to the National Broadband Network. Only 24% of respondents expressed support for the Coalition government’s fibre-to-the-node downgrade, compared with 43% who preferred Labor’s abandoned fibre-to-the-premises plan. The network’s failures are attributed to the government by 39%, compared with only 19% for Labor. Fifty-four per cent rated that the NBN would “fail to adequately meet Australia’s future internet requirements”, with 23% saying otherwise. However, 52% thought the NBN had improved their service (presumably where applicable), compared with only 17% who thought it worse and 28% about the same.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,175 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Liam Fox‏Verified account @liamfoxabc · 25m25 minutes ago

    Just saw what looked to be several buslads of Australian workers from the detention centre heading to the airport with police escort #Manus

  2. Paul Barratt‏ @phbarratt 3h3 hours ago
    Dear @TurnbullMalcolm When you talk about Australia and Israel having shared values, what do you have in mind? Massacres of indigenous people? Building a society on stolen land? Internment of refugees? Corrupt political class? Do tell.

    Yep.

  6. Ratsak – I think you’ll find essential’s dial moved big time!

    It went from 52/48 to 54/46 in one week – that’s a big jump when it’s a 2 week rolling average. It would take a big change to mov essential 2 points

  8. Cat

    That headline on the fox morning show. Its like lets just put words together and see what happens.

    That or Hilary bingo.

  9. So far on the Trump Imbroglio, we have

    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    It’s not even lunchtime and we’ve got…
    1) Conspiracy against the US
    2) Money Launderin’/Tax Evasion
    3) Confirmed collusion with Russia
    3:59 AM · Oct 31, 2017

  15. Yep in a nutshell

    John Schindler
    John Schindler
    @20committee
    Last Reminder: FBI never needed the Steele dossier for anything — they had everything already (mostly SIGINT).

  16. A warning that at least one service interruption is in store over the next few days. Probably tomorrow rather than today though.

  19. I don’t think Essential moved all that far.

    The 1 week results were probably around 54 54 50 54 54. The big move was from the weird sample 2 weeks ago washing out, not a good sample coming in this week.

  20. This is a very easily digestible article by Max Boot of The Council on Foreign Relations. It lays out, clearly and without emotion, the Mueller/Trump case so far:

    President Trump and his defenders are anxious to portray Monday’s indictments from Special Counsel Robert Mueller as a “nothing burger.” The quasi-official state broadcaster, Fox “News,” in fact, was trying to distract viewers’ attention with an actual story about cheeseburgers — or, to be, exact, cheeseburger emojis–as the big news was breaking. That may work for those who have already drunk the Kool-Aid along with their cheeseburgers. It won’t wash for anyone who retains even a speck of objectivity.

    It is not every day that a president’s former campaign manager and another campaign worker are indicted on felony charges. In fact the last time it happened was 1974, when Nixon’s campaign manager John Mitchell was indicted. Trump’s claims that “this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign,” aren’t true. The indictment says that the money laundering and conspiracy for which Manafort and his associate Rick Gates are being charged continued “through at least 2016” — i.e., through the period, from March 29 to August 19, 2016, when Manafort was working for Trump. Gates remained at the campaign even after Manafort was ousted.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/bet-collusion-mr-president-article-1.3599626?cid=bitly

  22. The charges against Manafort and Gates did not reference the Trump campaign, a point President Trump noted on Twitter Monday. “Sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why aren’t Crooked Hillary & the Dems the focus?????” Trump wrote.

    “ . . . Also, there is NO COLLUSION!” he said in a follow-up tweet.

    White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the special counsel’s announcement “has nothing to do with the president” or his campaign. She said there was “no intention or plan to make any changes with regard to the special counsel.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/manafort-and-former-business-partner-asked-to-surrender-in-connection-with-special-counsel-probe/2017/10/30/6fe051f0-bd67-11e7-959c-fe2b598d8c00_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_specialcounsel-817am-desktop%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.129739dd5eed

  25. Grumps
    Yes the Victorian figures – and South Australian – for renewables percentages certainly give the lie to “targets” such as “30% by 2030” or “50% by 2030”.

    By 2030 it will be all over.

  26. CaseyBriggs: The Nick Xenophon Team is changing its name to the catchy “SA-BEST (Federal)”. Nick Xenophon to remain leader #auspol pic.twitter.com/tDt2BJASjw

  27. VE,
    Yes, more to do with the bad sample washing out. I expect the kill Bill fiasco is playing out according to preconceptions about unions, and the abuse of power affect will have a lag as it sinks in.

  28. Could not happen to a nicer traitor

    John Schindler
    John Schindler
    @20committee
    The Papadopoulos case ALONE — with its direct effort at collusion with RIS — is enough to sink Trump.

    This is DAY 1, peeps….buckle up!
    2:01 AM · Oct 31, 2017

  30. Lol. This guy wasn’t on my radar either

    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    Trump was probably just as suprised about Papadopulous as anyone was. His paranoia is gonna be a red ravin’ monster tonight!

  31. C@t:

    Trump could always pardon these three for their federal crimes. Of course there is the New York state investigation as well, which has been humming alongside the Mueller investigation.

    We live in exciting times!

  32. Zoomster

    I admit ignorance to the minutiae of the specific charges etc because they are irrelevant. Similarly mush as i support Obamacare i do not follow the detail of the Republicans attempts to dismantle it. Nor do I follow the details of congressional races.

    What I look at is the bigger picture.

    What you and most on here are unable to even contemplate is that Trump still has strong support. As Kevin Rudd said on QA last night – he still has 80% support among Republican voters. That confirms a report I read yesterday which I have linked for your edification.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2017/10/29/why_republicans_remain_039trump_strong039_425054.html

    Now both these two comments come from people who dislike Trump. Rudd thinks he is nuts and the guy writing the article linked above cannot bear to watch him on TV.

    Try to read something other than the MSN which is group think triple plus. In particular read stuff from the inland not coastal states.

    Like it or not the USA is a federation and while there is no doubt that we in Australia are comfortable with the mainstreet views of the coastal yanks – California and New York, we just do not “get” the inland gun toters. Trouble is they vote.

  34. Jen, the two point movement was pretty much wired in due to the good sample for Trumble three weeks ago washing out.

    Essential has been locked in to 54 for months. The couple of 2 point movements to the Coalition in that time washed out two weeks later indicating that they were almost certainly just random sampling errors rather than real movement.

    It’s far more likely that this is just the last two weeks being about the same 54 than anything significant happened between last week and this.

  35. Support for Recognition has been good enough to risk a referendum for a while now ( and because you need a majority in a majority of states that’s a decent margin above 50%)

    Turnbull is probably right that support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous Voics wouldn’t get a majority in a majority of states but it would be interesting to see some polling to be sure.

    It’d be difficult to test them in the same poll since no matter the order one may poison the other (someone who has just said the support recognition is going to be more likely to say they support a voice and someone who rejects an Indigenous Voice with probably be less favourable to Recognition).

  36. By voting for privatisation of the SA grid, Xenophon is responsible for a major element of high power prices in SA.
    Wholesale power prices in SA are on par with eastern states, despite being on the end of the line – kept down by wind competition minimising the gas rort.
    Voters should not be allowed to forget that.
    Also his moronic carry on over wind turbines.

  37. Sixty per cent of Australians support a proposed model of Indigenous recognition the federal government has dismissed as having no realistic chance of getting past a referendum, according to polling released on Monday.

    The online survey, conducted by OmniPoll in August for researchers at Griffith University and the University of New South Wales, found that 60.7% of respondents broadly supported a proposal to “change the constitution to set up a representative Indigenous body to advise the parliament on laws and policies affecting Indigenous people”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/30/most-australians-support-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-plan-that-turnbull-rejected

  38. SA-BEST (Federal)
    Brilliant piece of psychology by Nick.
    So – if you’re a Victorian and support SA-BEST, you want SA to be better than Victoria.
    This should fit right in with the I-hate-my-home-state demographic.
    It could also be a nice little time bomb designed to get rid of the vestiges of his federal party once he moves on.

  39. The thing about constitutional recognition not getting up at a referendum ignores the vital point. It would face a very very good chance of being carried easily if there was a bipartisan campaign in support.

    As always Trumble ran from it not because it couldn’t get up in the public vote. He ran like the pissweak grub he is because he couldn’t win the fight in his own party room.

  40. Even if Turnbull could win in his party room it wouldn’t matter. The Nats aren’t going to go along with it whole PHON is running around unless Hanson comes out and personally supports it. That would probably sink it in Qld , NT and WA off the bat.

  41. Today’s DT is strongly praising Barnaby and strongly attacking Turnbull.

    Raging Turnbull: PM’s ‘white-hot’ fury for Mundine
    EXCLUSIVE INDIGENOUS leader Warren Mundine has revealed Malcolm Turnbull rang him in a white-hot rage after he revealed in a radio interview that he had not spoken to the Prime Minister in the four months since the federal election.
    (This is front page in dead tree edition)

  44. Barnyard definitely feeling the love over at the Tele. 2 article headlines.

    “Barnaby Joyce no way a country bumpkin”
    .
    “BARNABY JOYCE IS AS DINKY-DI AS THEY COME”

  46. c
    If Turnbull’s Indigenous Advisory Committee does the right thing it will resign en masse and Wyatt would move to the cross benches.

  47. StewartWood: “I had no inkling that any such illegal activities had been planned by persons associated with my campaign”: Richard Nixon, May 22, 1973.

  48. George Papadopoulos cuts plea deal against Donald Trump and exposes criminal Trump-Russia collusion

    Opinion by Bill Palmer

    Even as the nation is still trying to get to know the name “Rick Gates” after he was arrested alongside Paul Manafort this morning, yet another name is coming front and center in Donald Trump’s Russia scandal. Former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos has cut a plea deal with the Feds, and in the process he’s exposed a criminal level of collusion between the Donald Trump campaign and the Russian government during the election.

    If you’ve heard the name “George Papadopoulos” before, it’s because the Trump campaign initially tried to throw him under the bus when it first began voluntarily turning over campaign emails to Special Counsel Robert Mueller last month. What’s not clear is whether the campaign knew that Papadopoulos was already working with the Feds. According to numerous major news outlets Papadopoulos was caught lying to the FBI back in January, he was quietly arrested in July, and his plea deal secretly became official earlier this month. He’s confessed to the kind of crimes that leave no doubt about Trump-Russia collusion.

    According to lengthy official court documents that became public today George Papadopoulos took a meeting with a Kremlin-connected professor who promised to give him emails that had supposedly been stolen from Hillary Clinton. He initially lied to the FBI by claiming that the meeting took place before he joined the Trump campaign. He’s since confessed that the meeting took place while he was working as a Trump campaign adviser.

    So now we have a Donald Trump campaign adviser formally confessing to having colluded with the Russian government on behalf of the Donald Trump campaign. Here’s what stands out: today’s criminal charges filed against Paul Manafort and Rick Gates have nothing to do with what Papadopoulos has given Mueller. That means we’re looking at just the start of the criminal takedowns. Trump tweeted this morning that “there is NO COLLUSION!” He couldn’t be more wrong.

  49. Poroti

    I found this reported in the DT interesting ie Sally McManus head of ACTU spoke to the DT .
    Remembering what Tony Burke said on Insiders re vested interests that may challenge votes taken by Barnby Joyce etc……….

    The Daily Telegraph that legal advice was being sought about whether unions could challenge Mr Joyce’s “illegitimate votes” against a reversal of the February penalty rate cuts.

  50. If, as has often been said on these pages, the older one is, the more conservative one becomes; when should one begin to feel safe from this too horrible to contemplate happening. ❓

    Perhaps eighty ❓ More ❓

    Help ❗
    😵😵😵

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