BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Little change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, nor in the latest polls on same-sex marriage, which continue to show an emphatic margin in favour of “yes”.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, YouGov and Essential, have done precisely nothing to BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred trend reading, and next to nothing on the primary vote. The seat projection is likewise unchanged, although the Coalition is down one in Victoria and up one in Queensland. There’s a bit more excitement on the leadership ratings, following a poor set of numbers for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll. Full results can be found on the sidebar, where they belong.

Other poll news:

• A further finding from this week’s Newspoll tells a familiar story in relation to same-sex marriage, with yes leading 59% to 35%, out from 56% to 37% a fortnight ago. Of those who have voted, the lead for yes was 62% to 35%. Seventy-six per cent report having voted, which sits very well indeed with the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ recent estimate of 77% as of Friday. A further 10% of Newspoll respondents said they would “definitely” vote, though one suspects a number of those are stretching the definition of “definitely”. Survey forms have to be with the ABS by Tuesday to be included in the count.

• BuzzFeed reports a Galaxy poll conducted for gay rights group PFLAG found 78% support for the proposition that same-sex couples should be “treated the same under the law compared with other couples” in the event of a yes vote in the survey, though I suspect some respondents were unsure what to make of the question.

• A poll on attitudes to indigenous constitutional recognition has been published by the Gilbert and Tobin Centre of Public Law at the University of New South Wales. Its main finding is that 71.7% would support recognition of the history and culture of indigenous peoples in the constitution, and 60.7% support a representative body to advise on issues affecting indigenous people. The poll was conducted by OmniPoll, a firm founded by (among others) former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,231 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. If you see this William, I donated a little bit and will again just isn’t going to be a regular thing….can only give what I can afford.
    Barry Reynolds, from the Crikey site

  2. Bert says: Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 2:36 pm

    Testing….Testing….anyone out there?

    *********************************************************

    G’day Bert ….. I am still logged in and post the odd article – but it ‘s been rather quiet today as no doubt people are adjusting to the new format …..

  6. SF

    ‘Place your bets now on the first conservative pollie/columnist to run the line “fewer than 50% of Australians voted yes /the majority of Australians did not support SSM” ‘

    In today’s Oz Abbott claims that 40% is a ‘moral victory’.

  8. GG, What you don’t say is that it is a study of twitter opinions……….I look forward to anyone providing the empirical evidence that a study on twitter opinions have any merit.For what it is worth I’d rather back the Newspoll survey.

  10. “In today’s Oz Abbott claims that 40% is a ‘moral victory’.”

    With Abbott involved, it sounds more like a victory against morality (and democracy).

  11. sonar,

    If you read the article it says it’s a very sophisticated piece of research.

    The actual survey results will be weighted to more accurately Australia’s population demographics. So, the raw number will not actually be the result.

    Remember, this not a referendum, plebiscite or election. It’s a survey and the ABS will be applying survey rules to the outcome.

  13. GG
    The ABS will not be applying survey rules to the result. They have been asked by the government for raw numbers at national state and electorate level. They will get raw numbers only.

  14. If the government wanted to do a survey it would be much cheaper than $122m and the result would be completely predictable, an overwhelming win for marriage equality.

  15. GG, As far as I know they are not……..
    “The ABS will report how many of the 16 million enrolled Australian voters respond to the survey, and the number who vote yes and no. Results will be reported by electorate, state and nationally. The ABS will also give a breakdown of participation by age and gender, but not how those demographics voted.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/23/the-answers-in-the-post-australian-marriage-equality-vote-explainer

    A straight out count.

  23. briefly
    I fear that we will be hearing some rather interesting interpretations of the the terms “win” and “lose” from the conservative, religious right as they commence their inevitable rearguard action.

  24. The interesting thing is the respective Yes/No campaigns seem to have either had very little effect or to have cancelled each other out.

    The final result seems likely to be just what had been predicted at the outset.

    The campaigns may have picked up new recruits along the way, which suggests the question is who will do better at retaining their interest and engaging their support in the future.

  27. BK, I’m sure you’re right. Abbott has already commenced…and, in his way, further prised open the split in the LNP…the Right are ideologically busting.

  35. I wonder how many of the RW nutter group knew of Parry’s announcement before it was made.

    Turnbull is overseas and it appears that it was pure luck that he became aware of it and wasn’t in the situation where he found out about it via a question in a press conference.

  36. CTar1 says:
    Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 4:09 pm
    I wonder how many of the RW nutter group knew of Parry’s announcement before it was made.

    Turnbull is overseas and it appears that it was pure luck that he became aware of it and wasn’t in the situation where he found out about it via a question in a press conference.

    I’m waiting for it to come out that the media or someone else etc was about to write about him.

    Maybe another tory looking for the Senate Presidents job ?

    Or a Nat as payback ?

  37. Kevin Andrews calls for ‘strong and decisive leadership’ as Coalition fractures grow
    __________________
    Well they could start by getting rid of Andrews and his group of anachronistic a***holes!

  38. I like the new setup. Hope it works out well.

    Re GG @3:20PM [“Remember, this not a referendum, plebiscite or election. It’s a survey and the ABS will be applying survey rules to the outcome.”]

    If this was a real survey by the ABS, they would apply all the rules like weighting by age, sex, etc. As it is, they’ll just be counting the votes.

    Although I used to be a regular reader of the Australian, these days I accord it no more credibility than its tabloid stablemates. I suspect they are just trying to ‘get out the vote’ for the ‘No’ side, who othrwise might be deciding the battle is lost.

    In any case, who said Twitterers, even weighted by age, represent the electorate?

    We shall see on November 15. In any case, an incoming Labor Government will ignore the result if “No” (it’s not being made compulsory) or remove any crap the Coalition Right might load onto a bill to give effect to a “Yes” vote.

  45. victoria says:
    Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 4:27 pm

    has Lizzie been about today?
    …………………………………

    May not have tracked the new site yet.

    😍😍

  46. BK, the corollary of Andrew’s whinge is that the existing leadership is weak. That’s certainly true…and made even weaker by Andrew’s sabotage. They really are all over the place.

    The most recent prediction I’ve heard is a March election….would be a House only, desperation

  47. dave / BK

    Yep. I just saw Probyn whispering that Parry had told an un-named Cabinet member. He’d be more likely to confide in one of his faction rather than Brandis.

    It’ll be interesting to find out who!

    Coalition Govt … couldn’t organise a XXXX in a Hong Kong brothel!

  49. Hi everyone,

    I had a few problems getting onto the site, my browser wouldn’t accept certificates and I was redirected to a 404 page on HostGator. Then suddenly all worked fine.

    Perhaps lizzie is having the same problemo?

    BTW the site format is much better IMO.

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