Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, YouGov and Essential, have done precisely nothing to BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred trend reading, and next to nothing on the primary vote. The seat projection is likewise unchanged, although the Coalition is down one in Victoria and up one in Queensland. There’s a bit more excitement on the leadership ratings, following a poor set of numbers for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll. Full results can be found on the sidebar, where they belong.
Other poll news:
• A further finding from this week’s Newspoll tells a familiar story in relation to same-sex marriage, with yes leading 59% to 35%, out from 56% to 37% a fortnight ago. Of those who have voted, the lead for yes was 62% to 35%. Seventy-six per cent report having voted, which sits very well indeed with the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ recent estimate of 77% as of Friday. A further 10% of Newspoll respondents said they would “definitely” vote, though one suspects a number of those are stretching the definition of “definitely”. Survey forms have to be with the ABS by Tuesday to be included in the count.
• BuzzFeed reports a Galaxy poll conducted for gay rights group PFLAG found 78% support for the proposition that same-sex couples should be “treated the same under the law compared with other couples” in the event of a yes vote in the survey, though I suspect some respondents were unsure what to make of the question.
• A poll on attitudes to indigenous constitutional recognition has been published by the Gilbert and Tobin Centre of Public Law at the University of New South Wales. Its main finding is that 71.7% would support recognition of the history and culture of indigenous peoples in the constitution, and 60.7% support a representative body to advise on issues affecting indigenous people. The poll was conducted by OmniPoll, a firm founded by (among others) former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy.
If you see this William, I donated a little bit and will again just isn’t going to be a regular thing….can only give what I can afford.
Barry Reynolds, from the Crikey site
Bert says: Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 2:36 pm
Testing….Testing….anyone out there?
*********************************************************
G’day Bert ….. I am still logged in and post the odd article – but it ‘s been rather quiet today as no doubt people are adjusting to the new format …..
bert
phRD definitely ‘out there’. 😀
I put up two posts earlier which have disappeared so some of the gremlins have joined the migration.
Whoops. They are on the other string. My obsequious apologies to the gremlins, may they rest in peace.
SF
‘Place your bets now on the first conservative pollie/columnist to run the line “fewer than 50% of Australians voted yes /the majority of Australians did not support SSM” ‘
In today’s Oz Abbott claims that 40% is a ‘moral victory’.
Oh, dear!
Against the noisy crowd, academic analysis indicates it looks like the Yes vote for the SSM postal survey might lose!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/ssm-postal-vote-yes-vote-faces-defeat-academic-study-claims/news-story/15873b63a72caf27b4c4a895c59d050d
GG, What you don’t say is that it is a study of twitter opinions……….I look forward to anyone providing the empirical evidence that a study on twitter opinions have any merit.For what it is worth I’d rather back the Newspoll survey.
sonar
I’ll just wait for the ABS to finish counting the survey.
“In today’s Oz Abbott claims that 40% is a ‘moral victory’.”
With Abbott involved, it sounds more like a victory against morality (and democracy).
sonar,
If you read the article it says it’s a very sophisticated piece of research.
The actual survey results will be weighted to more accurately Australia’s population demographics. So, the raw number will not actually be the result.
Remember, this not a referendum, plebiscite or election. It’s a survey and the ABS will be applying survey rules to the outcome.
Nice clean site thanks William
GG
The ABS will not be applying survey rules to the result. They have been asked by the government for raw numbers at national state and electorate level. They will get raw numbers only.
If the government wanted to do a survey it would be much cheaper than $122m and the result would be completely predictable, an overwhelming win for marriage equality.
GG, As far as I know they are not……..
“The ABS will report how many of the 16 million enrolled Australian voters respond to the survey, and the number who vote yes and no. Results will be reported by electorate, state and nationally. The ABS will also give a breakdown of participation by age and gender, but not how those demographics voted.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/23/the-answers-in-the-post-australian-marriage-equality-vote-explainer
A straight out count.
The Oz running interference as usual
I would have a wild guess and say the majority of votes have already been cast.
And Abbott setting the bar for “Moral Victory” as low as it can go.
KayJay @ #23 Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 – 8:26 am
That appears to be tentatively doable.
Unless a lot polling respondents are just making stuff up,YES is going to win convincingly
And by the same token, the NOES will be well beaten
Test
briefly
I fear that we will be hearing some rather interesting interpretations of the the terms “win” and “lose” from the conservative, religious right as they commence their inevitable rearguard action.
The interesting thing is the respective Yes/No campaigns seem to have either had very little effect or to have cancelled each other out.
The final result seems likely to be just what had been predicted at the outset.
The campaigns may have picked up new recruits along the way, which suggests the question is who will do better at retaining their interest and engaging their support in the future.
[test indent – square brackets]
nope 🙁
BK, I’m sure you’re right. Abbott has already commenced…and, in his way, further prised open the split in the LNP…the Right are ideologically busting.
The Fobe divisions will put their own hatreds and obsessions ahead of everything
In Abbott’s case, they overlap entirely with his own spoiled ambitions
In my professional life, anything short of a humiliating defeat is an overwhelming victory.
Kevin Andrews calls for ‘strong and decisive leadership’ as Coalition fractures grow
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/02/kevin-andrews-calls-for-strong-and-decisive-leadership-as-coalition-fractures-grow
#libspill ?
test BOLD!
Jaeger @3:58 pm (Oh for comment numbering!): Mooing for Gollum ain’t going to help the cycling moon calf now.
I wonder how many of the RW nutter group knew of Parry’s announcement before it was made.
Turnbull is overseas and it appears that it was pure luck that he became aware of it and wasn’t in the situation where he found out about it via a question in a press conference.
I’m waiting for it to come out that the media or someone else etc was about to write about him.
Maybe another tory looking for the Senate Presidents job ?
Or a Nat as payback ?
Kevin Andrews calls for ‘strong and decisive leadership’ as Coalition fractures grow
__________________
Well they could start by getting rid of Andrews and his group of anachronistic a***holes!
I like the new setup. Hope it works out well.
Re GG @3:20PM [“Remember, this not a referendum, plebiscite or election. It’s a survey and the ABS will be applying survey rules to the outcome.”]
If this was a real survey by the ABS, they would apply all the rules like weighting by age, sex, etc. As it is, they’ll just be counting the votes.
Although I used to be a regular reader of the Australian, these days I accord it no more credibility than its tabloid stablemates. I suspect they are just trying to ‘get out the vote’ for the ‘No’ side, who othrwise might be deciding the battle is lost.
In any case, who said Twitterers, even weighted by age, represent the electorate?
We shall see on November 15. In any case, an incoming Labor Government will ignore the result if “No” (it’s not being made compulsory) or remove any crap the Coalition Right might load onto a bill to give effect to a “Yes” vote.
Stephen Parry confided he might have a dual citizenship problem to a Cabinet minister months ago but was advised not to raise the alarm.
The plot thickens!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-02/parry-told-senior-colleague-citizenship-concerns-in-august/9112790
Excellent ❗
Emoji seem to work OK. As in http://www.amp-what.com/unicode/search/emoji
and https://fsymbols.com/bookmarklet/
I expect that Italics and
StrikethroughWill work OK. Dave already tested BoldProbably around the same time trumbull was foaming at the mouth, demanding Shorten ‘prove’ he wasn’t a Pom?
BK
This mob couldn’t lie straight in bed. sheesh!!
has Lizzie been about today?
The “senior colleague” in whom Parry confided will likely turn out to be Brandis…
victoria says:
Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 4:27 pm
has Lizzie been about today?
…………………………………
May not have tracked the new site yet.
😍😍
BK, the corollary of Andrew’s whinge is that the existing leadership is weak. That’s certainly true…and made even weaker by Andrew’s sabotage. They really are all over the place.
The most recent prediction I’ve heard is a March election….would be a House only, desperation
dave / BK
Yep. I just saw Probyn whispering that Parry had told an un-named Cabinet member. He’d be more likely to confide in one of his faction rather than Brandis.
It’ll be interesting to find out who!
Coalition Govt … couldn’t organise a XXXX in a Hong Kong brothel!
William, are you still part of the ‘Crikey stable’
Hi everyone,
I had a few problems getting onto the site, my browser wouldn’t accept certificates and I was redirected to a 404 page on HostGator. Then suddenly all worked fine.
Perhaps lizzie is having the same problemo?
BTW the site format is much better IMO.
Australia’s consumer watchdog will hold a public inquiry into the standard of the National Broadband Network’s wholesale service after a dramatic rise in the number of customer complaints. Bring it on!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-02/nbn-rollout-issuesaccc-launches-inquiry/9111880