Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

Comments Page 3 of 54
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  1. Bushfire Bill says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:12 pm
    That’s rich, coming from a lurker!
    Don, you’ve only been around since virtually yesterday. If you’re going to start labelling people as lurkers, remember that some, a very few, have been posting here for over a decade, and have a much better context and status as “regulars” than yourself.

    I started coming here and posting in 2007.

  2. Once more with feeling:

    Bushfire Bill says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:12 pm
    That’s rich, coming from a lurker!
    Don, you’ve only been around since virtually yesterday. If you’re going to start labelling people as lurkers, remember that some, a very few, have been posting here for over a decade, and have a much better context and status as “regulars” than yourself.

    I started coming here and posting in 2007.

  5. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP · 13h13 hours ago

    There may or may not be good reasons to have a royal commission into the banks…but here is Liberal Senator Ian MacDonald’s reason for changing his mind and now wanting one: he had issues with customer service re a credit card PIN number. We’re lucky to have him in parliament…

  6. Great opening polls for KK. You’ve got to wonder why, an idiot representative who by his own failure to abide the constitution has forced this inconvenient by-election on the good people of Bennelong, would get 10% of the vote let alone 50%. Particularly a member of this joke of a government. What the hell would they be re-endorsing him for? Ballooning debt? Shit NBN? Penalty rates? Higher power bills? No chance first home buyers? I mean… really?

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Plenty of Saturday reading for you.

    Richard Dennis posits that the Coalition’s crisis has a simple cause: it keeps supporting deeply unpopular policies. I suppose too that’s why it has so much trouble with the Senate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/coalitions-crisis-has-a-simple-cause-it-keeps-supporting-deeply-unpopular-policies-20171117-gznax8.html
    Paul Bongiorno treats us with another of his very good articles as he examines the reality of last week’s events.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/11/18/turnbulls-reality-check-the-mail/15109236005513
    One of our favourites, Janet Albrechtsen, says that :”Turnbull has deserted us”. Google.
    /news/inquirer/life-under-malcolm-turnbull-according-to-game-of-thrones-tyrion/news-story/9db96186fb43ddd1f3dca4e6428a5472
    Imre Saulsinszky, who has closely followed the political career of Kristina Keneally, declares that she is as straight as a die.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/was-labors-candidate-in-bennelong-kristina-keneally-obeids-puppet-20171117-gzneiy.html
    Elizabeth Knight looks at the Netfix-driven media frenzy going on in the US. The predators are circling Murdoch she says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/predators-circle-murdoch-as-netflix-drives-us-consolidation-frenzy-20171117-gzni1f.html
    The SMH editorial uses the SSM survey to support the notion that the real centre is reasserting itself.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-real-centre-is-reasserting-itself-20171117-gznsf5.html
    In an excellent article Peter van Onselen writes that the same-sex marriage survey result exposes reactionaries as the dinosaurs they are. Google.
    /news/inquirer/samesex-marriage-result-exposes-reactionaries-as-the-dinosaurs-they-are/news-story/1140bc5b01a30ee59d7dae06192ba4f6
    Cory Bernardi’s homophobic slurs reflect someone quickly losing relevance.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/11/17/cory-bernardi-christopher-pyne/
    Peter Hartcher wonders how Australia might do democracy better.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-can-we-do-democracy-better-20171117-gznku5.html
    Ross Gittins tells us why universities should never get to set their own fees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/why-universities-should-never-get-to-set-their-own-fees-20171116-gzn7ku.html
    Another good example of why we need freedom from religion as much as for it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/religious-groups-doomed-voluntary-assisted-dying-bill-20171117-gznjvu.html

  9. Section 2 . . .

    George Brandis is considering an amendment to the same-sex-marriage legislation that uses an international agreement upholding religious liberty, in a move to placate ¬conservative MPs demanding extra protections. Google.
    /national-affairs/covenant-clause-fix-for-split-on-samesex-marriage/news-story/d25f7e79ff20fd6392ae72965728d506
    Christian Democratic Party leader Reverend Fred Nile has admitted making a significant error in a horror story he told during the NSW parliament debate on voluntary assisted dying laws. But Mr Nile has put down the error to possible divine intervention after he experienced “a full blown visual” of a newspaper report of the story he incorrectly recounted. Nile is clearly unfit for office!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/god-prompted-me–fred-niles-error-in-horror-story-during-nsw-assisted-dying-debate-20171117-gznekf.html
    Mark Kenny says the SSM survey demonstrated that men of God hold no mortgage on the national soul.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/samesex-marriage-men-of-god-hold-no-mortgage-on-the-national-soul-20171117-gznbih.html
    Karen Middleton writes “It just shows that progressive jurisdictions can lead and lead well and the rest of the country will catch up.”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/11/18/yes-australia-votes-equality/15109236005522
    The whining Gerard Henderson says that we should all pay homage to the strength of Tony Abbott’s decision making. I dare you to read it! Google.
    /news/inquirer/samesex-marriage-thanks-to-abbott-the-people-have-had-their-say-on-marriage/news-story/3742852baa3d38d95aa1143c5a9cf36c
    Another very good contribution from Jack Waterford this time on the effect of religion on the SSM survey. It has a sting in the tail where he says there could be something to be learned from how the very high NO votes were achieved in some western Sydney electorates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/marriage-equality-some-special-currents-in-the-western-suburbs-bun-20171116-gzn8ng.html
    PHON tells the Queensland LNP that if it wants them to help form government they’ll have to agree to ease gun laws. Google.
    /news/politics/one-nations-price-of-government-ease-gun-laws-20171117-gznd3w
    Trump doesn’t frighten Jacinda Ardern. “No-one marched when I was elected”, she said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/17/jacinda-ardern-to-donald-trump-no-one-marched-when-i-was-elected
    With the ACTU’s new ‘Change the Rules’ campaign, Sally McManus is playing the long game, says Jay Goodall.
    https://independentaustralia.net/article-display/overcoming-neoliberalism-sally-mcmanus-looks-to-change-the-rules,10937
    Michael West puts it to us that if governments, either state or federal, proceed to use taxpayer money to subsidise an Indian coal magnate whose profits end up in Caribbean tax havens, it can only be put down to corruption. Mexico is proving it.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/mexico-proves-coal/

  10. Section 3 . . .

    Karen Middleton tells us that concerned about possible collusion over the NBN, Kevin Rudd is calling for a royal commission into the ‘cancer’ that is News Corp and its impact on democracy. It’s a full-throttle attack she says.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/11/18/exclusive-rudd-calls-news-corp-inquiry/15109236005520
    The corporate watchdog will look into any potential risks to shoppers from the boom in buy now, pay later platforms such as Afterpay, as consumer groups worry these services escape laws designed to protect customers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-probes-buy-now-pay-later-schemes-including-afterpay-20171116-gzn87c.html
    In the first part of an exclusive series for Independent Australia, Alan Austin analyses all Federal ministerial sackings and resignations since Gough Whitlam’s regime — to show the Turnbull Government has by far the worst record in recent times.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/modern-ministerial-sackings-part-one-turnbull-smashes-howards-record,10935
    Mike Seccombe is of the opinion that a NSW ‘predictive’ policing initiative appears to be as much about presuming guilt among young Indigenous people as it is about preventing crime.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2017/11/18/predictive-policing-nsw/15109236005524
    Simon Birmingham still has work to do with the Catholic education sector. Google.
    national-affairs/education/catholic-schools-target-byelections-in-funding-war/news-story/701f6d2716b59013646614fcefd758c8
    Remember the Unaoil scandal? Well now things are starting to happen.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/first-charges-laid-in-unaoil-bribery-scandal-20171117-gznelf.html
    Lendlease has highlighted the challenges it faces in providing a safe workplace after three workers died on its construction sites in the last eight months.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/lendlease-says-it-faces-safety-engineering-challenges-20171117-gzndxw.html
    The NT Royal Commission didn’t pull any punches.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/northern-territory-government-to-close-don-dale-detention-centre-in-three-months-20171117-gznys3.html
    And the NT government pledges action.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shut-don-dale-ban-spit-hoods-raise-criminal-age-to-12-nt-royal-commission-says-20171117-gznl34.html
    I’d hate to be put through this Sydney University ordeal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/university-of-sydney-commerce-exam-cancelled-over-fears-of-security-breach-20171117-gzngvb.html

  11. Gecko

    The good voters of Bennelong would be feeling more wealthy due to increased value of property. Especially if they are investors. For everyone else such as First home buyers, they would say pffft.
    The property market most definitely props up a good portion of our economy. It really is the biggest pyramid scheme going around.
    Beneficiaries are govt coffers re stamp duties and land taxes, the banks, investors, real estate agents, and for everyone else burden of overwhelming debt. What’s not to like

  13. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Another tough day in court for Westpac will do nothing to quell the calls for a banking RC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/youre-a-f-thief-westpac-says-interest-rate-chats-just-banter-20171116-gzn8g3.html
    And giving the Nats the shits over SSM won’t help staving of a Royal Commission either!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/powerful-inquiry-into-banks-in-the-balance-as-nationals-mps-ponder-crossing-the-floor-20171117-gznl4g.html
    Ah. The Ibrahims!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ibrahim-bodyguard-semi-tongan-sam-ngata-shot-in-the-back-20171117-gzo0dl.html

    David Rowe with time running out for Trump.

    A ripper from Alan Moir on the survey outcome!

    David Pope on the NT Royal Commission report.

    I’m not sure where Paul Zanetti’s coming from with this one.

    A biblical contribution from Matt Golding.

    Andrew Dyson in the political waiting room.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Mark Knight with a rather disingenuous contribution.

    Sean Leahy with Anastacia’s bold move to completely eschew PHON.

    A coat of arms remake.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/d37b07f2ceb6d9f99d942bc02a5e32d1
    Jon Kudelka explains the scales of justice.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/07609b15a2463514c98c16844f6ca978

  16. Reverend Fred Nile has admitted making a significant error in a horror story he told during the NSW parliament debate on voluntary assisted dying laws. But Mr Nile has put down the error to possible divine intervention after he experienced “a full blown visual” of a newspaper report of the story he incorrectly recounted.

    If he admitted the error, they should vote again – only lost by one vote!!

  17. C@tmomma says: Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 7:33 am

    Good Morning Bludgers

    This is for Phoenix Red, by way of a big thank you!

    *******************************************

    Again Thanks C@tmomma – and also Thanks to a number of other PB posters whose posts of support throughout the day brightened up the lousy start I had to yesterday morning

    I’ll try to do better ……

  18. “The pop-right are going to devour the archeo-Libs.”

    The Trumpian scenario. Could well happen if a pop-right character with charisma and who less less scatterbrained that Pauline Hanson were to arise.

  19. Gecko,
    What the hell would they be re-endorsing him for?

    Because you should see who wants to take over from John Alexander when he retires(or is defeated)…
    Peter Hendy! The architect, with Josh Frydenburg, of Workchoices!

  20. victoria @ #59 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 7:43 am

    BK

    Yep. Mark Knight being disingenuous. He does that a lot where Labor is concerned

    Singing for his supper, I reckon.

    Anyway, remember the scenes in Melbourne of the day of the announcement of the ‘Yes’ vote?

    “Next Prime Minister! Next Prime Minister!”, shouted at Bill Shorten.

    The people know better than some of our cartoonists.

    However, I reckon David Pope, especially today, is bang on the money of the people’s pulse.

  23. KayJay @ #56 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 7:37 am

    C@tmomma and AR

    I have tried Block and Unblock with the latest C+

    Works just fine for me.

    Just for information. 😎

    Yes, but do you still have pagination? As I said at the end of the last thread, pagination has disappeared for me. All I have is one long page of comments. C+ is still red (not grey), for me though.
    Indicating, I think, that it is still ‘functional’.

    Ergo, ‘Block’ besides people’s noms is still there, but the ‘Unblock’ functionality has disappeared!

  24. Housing Minister Martin Foley said it was disgraceful the Greens had combined with the Coalition to wreck delivery of new public housing and affordable homes in Ashburton, Vic.
    …
    The Victorian Council for Social Services also expressed outrage at the dumping of the Ashburton housing plan.

    “For many Victorians, public housing is all that stands between them and homelessness,” chief executive Emma King said.

    She said while she understood some had concerns about the new public and private housing, “blocking the development makes the problem worse”.

    The Greens object because the plan isn’t perfect – not enough public housing in the mix.
    The Coalition objects because they imposed medium-rise housing on low-rise areas (might lower house values of posh people?).

    So the plan is stymied.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/coalition-and-greens-combine-to-dump-public-housing-project-others-now-in-doubt-20171117-gznf9q.html

  27. C@tmomma

    When C+ was red (deceitful) and not working properly, I had similar problems. You need to delete it altogether and then re-install.

  30. Gecko

    Yep. Greed is a big motivator for many. Don’t know why. You can’t take it with you. And seriously you can only sleep in one bed or sit on one couch at a time. I am all for financial security. ie having enough to have a roof over your head, pay the weekly bills etc. Each to their own, I guess.

  35. Seem to remember Kevin Rudd dashing off to a New York meeting with dear Rupert when he was seeking to be PM. He didn’t mind Newscorps influence back then… or when he was shafting Julia Gillard.

  36. Billie says:
    Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 6:58 am
    Difference between the Pub and here

    –
    The moderators there have never disclosed my identity to other posters

    –

    Say what????

    Are you suggesting that William has disclosed poster’s identities, billie?

    If so, when?

  40. Christian Democratic Party leader Reverend Fred Nile has admitted making a significant error in a horror story he told during the NSW parliament debate on voluntary assisted dying laws. But Mr Nile has put down the error to possible divine intervention after he experienced “a full blown visual” of a newspaper report of the story he incorrectly recounted. Nile is clearly unfit for office!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/god-prompted-me–fred-niles-error-in-horror-story-during-nsw-assisted-dying-debate-20171117-gznekf.html

    The whining Gerard Henderson says that we should all pay homage to the strength of Tony Abbott’s decision making. I dare you to read it! Google.
    /news/inquirer/samesex-marriage-thanks-to-abbott-the-people-have-had-their-say-on-marriage/news-story/3742852baa3d38d95aa1143c5a9cf36c

    The first bit, Mr. Nile is revealed as a lying ………………………………….:!:

    I dares ya to reveal my identity. Go on, go on.
    Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Mostly from my flame thrower zapping the creeping oxalis.

    BK You dare us/me. Well, dang me, dang me (♫ Aorta take a rope….♪), I read the magnificent work of art from Mr Gerard Henderson.
    We, at hacienda del Kayjay now worship at the foot (I used to work with a bunch of guys where the temporary foreman, of Polish decent, would wander into the room where an eager bunch of no hopers waited; “on you foot, he would say……”), of Monsieur G. F. Henderson. His wise counsel and clever verbiage is a triumph, and I now summarize.

    How could we have been so foolish, we ask ourselves. Mr. Abbott in his wisdom while facing North proceeded Right while announcing a move to the West.

    His followers, dedicated to a man, no women here mon ami, triumphantly declared Julia, Kevin and Bill would have their collective ashes scattered at noon and thereafter be cremated.

    Then sagely announcing that he was personally against everything, he would like the Australian volk to have their collective say about that abomination before the Lord God of travel allowances – that stuff about marriage and that.

    Now cleverly ensconced within a locked room for which he has the only key he appears in a puff of smoke (his flash paper supply is enormous) and announces that not only has he Anthony F. Abbott engineered a magnificent social advance but has also supported and opposed it simultaneously.
    My nephew, yesterday evening, mentioned quadratic equations. I now can see clearly now ♫ that if we factor in, forward, left, Shorten, Turbull, Eric, Andrew and Penny we are left with an announcement from Oslo.

    Australia rejoices with the Abbottistas as the Nobel peace (and wind) prize goes down under.

    Thank you very much for your kind attention.

    ♫Oh, when the Saints, go marching in, ♫ Oh …………..♫

    Big day today for me. I have to prepare to meet the Coles man.

    Bye the bye. Telstra are giving me a $135 dollar refund because they now admit their evil ways and cannot deliver the promised 100 mbps download speed. I will now be going on to the 50/25 which is OK with me. I hope that the damn thing works at the full 50/25.
    Downloading last night to update Windows 10 the speed dropped to 40/6.

    Good morning all.

    Please read while wearing the previously described funny glasses. 🙏

  41. C@tmomma

    I have pagination. The block/unblock works fine.

    As Lizzie suggests. Possible solution is:-
    Remove C+
    Go to site as below and reinstall.
    Then when the C+ icon appears make sure that you tick the “override HTML comments” box and then click “Save”.

    Chrome Extension
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

    Good luck with this.

  42. RE Paul Zanetti’s comic

    It seems the religious right like to emphasis on the ethnic minorities speaking the loudest on the “NO” vote whereas in reality it is mainly them who are actually the ones who are the most vocal. The muslims as a group would make up no more than 2% of the overall vote, and even that how many percent of them would vote YES or NO? The other biggest NO voters are those of Asian background, again making up no more than 5% of the voting enrolled population if you were to make the flawed assumption that all voted NO.

  44. Steve777 since Billie was listing the differences between The Pub and here “The moderators there have never disclosed my identity to other posters” can only be read as implying that the moderator here had disclosed Billie’s identity.

    Now apart from my initial thought of who the f**K is this Billie, I wonder who the f**k would really want to know Billie’s identity.

  45. BK @ #106 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 7:33 am

    Peter Hartcher wonders how Australia might do democracy better.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-can-we-do-democracy-better-20171117-gznku5.html

    This is quite a good article. It discusses exactly the problem I have with populist “plebiscites” …

    California’s system of citizen-initiated referenda has fallen into disrepute after producing some perverse outcomes. In particular, the unworkably rigid state budget. The fatal flaw is that the legislature in California must implement a popular referendum decision and cannot reject it or amend it.

    John Keane argues that it’s a mistake to overuse plebiscites. “A plebiscite is a double-edged sword – it is a mechanism of democracy but it can be used to weaken elections, undermine respect for parliament and destroy the whole idea of representation and to weaken or destroy other monitory mechanisms like the courts. Populists who use referenda often accuse the courts of being unelected.”

    The plebiscite can also be misused by a government trying to override a parliament. That was the story of Australia’s first two plebiscites. Prime Minister Billy Hughes wanted to introduce conscription so a war-weary Australia could continue sending fresh supplies of troops to die for Britain. When he was frustrated by Parliament, he called the plebiscites to try to bully his way through. Both, however, failed.

    The truth is that it is not “we” who need to figure out how to do democracy better – it is our politicians. We elect them precisely to do this difficult job for us, and we should not elect those who have demonstrated a willingness to use plebiscites as a way of avoiding the consequences of making the difficult decisions.

  47. Gecko

    If you read the article you would know Mr Rudd in fact uses that as evidence of the Murdoch influence. He includes getting Mitchell to get polling up so he could use it to replace Beazley.

  48. Morning all. Bennelong is very interesting. Now as with McKew versus Howard, it is virtually a poll on whether or not the Liberal government should fall. Alexander is a popular local member. If this is the best he can do, the Liberals are in serious trouble.

    There are more issies at play than SSM and racial minorities too. Bennelong now has many renting at high cost, and its well educated demographic might actually care about a climate change response. Its wealthy demographic might care about a banking RC too.

  49. While the coalition embrace PHON either overtly as they did in WA or with more subtlety, those Western Sydney seats will be forever out of their reach.
    Benelong however….

    What these two polls show is that there is a swing on. As a Sydney resident Kenneally wasn’t fully embroiled by NSW Labor, and people do see the distinction between state an federal.

  50. Remember I said that Keneally came out of the NSW Obeid period with her integrity intact?

    This just proves my point. The LNP threw the corrupt government kitchen sink at her. Not done them any favours in the polling.

    With weeks of campaigning to go they are going to have to actually have some policy to have a positive message to sell.

    Good luck to them with that

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