Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. Boerwar

    But why all the fuss about the baking industry?

    Have you learnt nothing from the SSM debate?
    The baking industry is just a vipers nest of homophobes.

  6. Apparently Gladys said this regarding knocking over the Homebush stadium:

    NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian defended the decision, telling the ABC the Sydney Olympic Stadium is no longer fit for purpose. “By the time we start construction it would be nearly 20 years old and that was built for an Olympics, it wasn’t built for modern, global events and it wasn’t built for spectators.”

    Umm, isn’t the Olympics a modern (relatively) global event & last time I looked there were spectators.

    https://architectureau.com/articles/like-losing-a-major-landmark-two-sydney-stadiums-to-be-demolished/?utm_source=ArchitectureAU&utm_campaign=a58190e318-AAU_2017_11_28&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e3604e2a4a-a58190e318-39629218&mc_cid=a58190e318&mc_eid=6d83ed8411

  8. Labor will clean up the banking industry and leave the Greens Party to get on with the important stuff, like harassing chefs in the latte belt.

  9. Wasn’t built for spectators? Then what were I and 90,000 other spectators sitting on at the last Rugby Test match I attended there?

  13. and how thoroughly predictable that Dasher’s Chinese mate has been spending an awfully large amount of time and money with the Liberal Party?

    Brian Trumble – Prime Turnip

  18. Dastayari needs to go. I also note he was absent for the final SSM vote. Shows how fickle his principles are.

    BTW – this is my first post – but I follow the pollbludger comments religiously every day! I love this thread and forum.

  21. Sky News is reporting a ReachTel poll showing on the two-party preferred measure Labor is leading 53 to 47 per cent

    The number of respondents who support a banking royal commission? 69 per cent

    Primary votes are pretty interesting:

    Coalition – 33 per cent

    Labor – 36 per cent

    Greens – 10 per cent

    One Nation – 9 per cent

    Malcolm Turnbull still sits ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred PM, 52 to 48 per cent.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/nov/29/sam-dastyari-under-the-spotlight-as-conservatives-push-back-on-marriage-politics-live?page=with:block-5a1e3f3b9ab3f2056cb1d2d4#block-5a1e3f3b9ab3f2056cb1d2d4

  23. It seems to me that we are practically in an election campaign.

    Context: possible collapse of Government majority in the House/Turnbull being rolled and walking/Turnbull calling an election out of desperation to avoid a challenge.

    Evidence for:

    1. Coalition dirt units are using up all their ammo.
    2. Daily meet and greet stunts.
    3. Huge number of taxpayer funded ads extolling the achievements of the Government.
    4. Major jump-the-gun announcements of policy victories. These include the NEG, marriage equality for cooks, Tax gifts.
    5. Bishop is taking time off from the races.

  26. I’m sure a solution to Stadium Australia could be developed without knocking the whole thing over. The SFS needs a refurb not a rebuild. The question is why the hurry?

    There are hundreds maybe a thousand or more demountables sitting in school playgrounds across the state.
    Presumably the profits to provide permanent solutions to these are inadequate for Gladys’ mates.

    It’s a bit like why the hell is Gladys rebuilding one of the least used if not the least used station on the metropolitan network instead of busy stations with a large number of low income, aged people and people with mobility issues? Guess whose party is benefiting?

  29. It seems that the general plan not to give Milo any oxygen is working.

    Milo’s confected outrage is getting about as desperate as the Greens Party Royal Commission into the Pastry Industry.

  32. I assume that it was NOT a Greens Party political hack who sent the bullet in the mail to Joyce but is a fake news disinformation act by an agent provocateur in the Nationals.

    Or maybe just a random environmentalist idiot.

    I hope the cops catch whomever and throw the book at him.

    The stalker, who is now being investigated by the AFP, does not seem to be a Greens Party Operative.

    However, Joyce IS blaming another candidate for the vandalism of his office.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-28/barnaby-joyce-campaign-headaches/9201638

    This by election is not covering itself in glory, in terms of ethics.

  33. caf @ Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 1:06 pm Comment #798

    doyley: In fact they are both responsible for security agencies. ASIS is under the Foreign Minister.

    I think the current somewhat informal arrangements are that –

    * Dutton now has ASIO, AFP, CRIMTRAC and several other small policing / security agencies that relate to domestic security i.e. similar to the UK Home Office. Brandis lost the argument and Turnbull gave Dutton his ‘super ministry’;

    * Bishop is responsible for ASIS (intelligence gathering / actions overseas; and

    * The relevant agency in regard to ‘signals’ intelligence is the Australian Signals Directorate (‘ASD’ formerly ‘DSD’) including phone ‘bugging’. This agency is under the formal ‘Administrative Arrangements’ the responsibility of the Minister for Defence.

    At the moment it’s fluid exactly who is the real ‘Minister for Defence’ – either Payne or Pyne but it seems that it depends on what the subject is or what locality particular announcements /decisions relate to. Who the Signals Directorate really answers to I don’t know but it’s unlikely to be Payne or Pyne but it’s possibly Dutton for ‘domestic’ activities and Bishop for activities overseas.

    Brandis is responsible for advising on the legality of all of their activities but I’d find it hard to imagine Dutton dropping in to see Brandis to ask him for his thoughts on anything.

    Turnbull runs a really tight ship …

  35. ABC adds to the pile on with a secret recording of Sam D’s comments at a Chinese press conference from their investigative reporter.

    Didn’t know they had one but apparently it’s explosive.

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