New year news (week two)

A bunch of state polling, particularly from Victoria, and two items of preselection news.

Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:

• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.

The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.

• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “New year news (week two)”

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  1. Essential prediction
    2PP 53/47
    Primary vote: Coalition: 34 Labor 36 Greens 9 PHON 6 NXT 4
    PPM Turnbull 40 Shorten 30
    net sat Turnbull -18 Shorten -20

  2. So crazy emperor Colin built a new stadium, and it is finished and tested and ready to go. Obviously he needed to do his mates the Packers a favour and built it as an extension of Crown, and of course a footbridge to the WACA side, was stuffed up and delayed. It is supposed to have 15k ish pedestrians walking over it, but I really can’t see why you would, well unless there was no other choice, there is nothing on the WACA side, getting from the WACA to real Perth or public transport is a a real pain, having to get TO the WACA to then get to real Perth is just silly silly silly.

    So of course if the Scorchers get to a home semi at the new stadium there will be 15000 seats capped out and empty, because the footbridge isn’t finished. Really bad stuff from the libs, but I’m sure in NSW it is a good investment and the state govt wont be doing favours for real estate developers or casino owners …

  3. poroti says: Monday, January 15, 2018 at 5:21 pm

    bemused

    Unfortunately it is pay walled but perhaps this from Dec. 2016 remains today ?
    .
    “Trump’s Nuclear Boast Is Obama’s Modernization Plan

    President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday tweeted his desire for the U.S. to “greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability,”

    ***********************************************

    This is not pay walled :

    Exclusive: Here Is A Draft Of Trump’s Nuclear Review. He Wants A Lot More Nukes.

    His first Nuclear Posture Review: more nukes, more posturing.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-nuclear-posture-review-2018_us_5a4d4773e4b06d1621bce4c5

  4. phRD

    In October, NBC reported that President Trump had told a gathering of high-ranking national security leaders that “he wanted what amounted to a nearly tenfold increase in the U.S. nuclear arsenal.”

    It’s a good demonstration of what a dill Trump is. NFI

  5. Vic,

    And it wouldn’t have even occurred to Workman to expose the media peeps who are happy to be party to Cash’s fraud. Simply pointing out the self evident truth that someone either in the government, ROC, or the Feds had tipped off the media for a blatantly political stunt was radical stuff. To it was indeed the most obvious candidate was positively heretical.

    To have completed the job and properly chronicled how and why the media willingly aligns itself with power in order to mislead and so help entrench that power should have been the next step, but no doubt Alice identifies with her comrades in the media much more strongly than with the populace being lied to. Much safer to get a few half hearted slaps for breaking omerta, balanced by an equal number of quiet ‘goodonyas’ from those who still kid themselves that they haven’t completely sold out by skirting around the real story.

  6. Phoenix

    So what you are saying is that the Military has got in Trump’s ear and pushing for more nukes.

    Obama had already moved in that direction, although I suspect more reluctantly.

    We can agree it is insanity, but the idea of “battlefield nukes”has been around for a while.

    Read an interesting article this morning (not sure I agree with it) but it was saying that Trump was right to suggest countries like Sth Korea and Japan (and I assume Australia but not specifically mentioned) because when push came to shove, the US would NOT risk Los Angeles for Taipei or Boston for Latvia or presumably Hawaii for Darwin.

    It makes sense rationally if you think about it. It was apparently why DeGaul pushed for nukes in France.

  7. Centrelink Update:

    Response from Commonwealth Ombudsman…

    ‘We are aware of the extent of the delays in Centrelink’s Authorised Review Officer (ARO) review process’

    And they said I HAVE to wait 3 months if the complaint is not finalised.

    Fuck sake.

  8. Failure to launch will just make your wife grumpy!

    Sounds like the voice of experience GG.

    There are medical interventions that might help you with your problem.

  9. Ctari

    For once we can agree!

    Trouble is Trump uses rhetoric and exaggeration as everyday tools. Works well in the media but is useless in government.

    Not sure how he plan to pay for this tenfold increase.

  10. This is all getting ridiculous. I haven’t seen any real kickback at Ch7.

    Craig Emerson‏ @DrCraigEmerson · 27m27 minutes ago

    So @7NewsMelbourne is defending its exclusive coverage of a meeting with neo-nazis who’ve described Jewish people as parasites & argued that every school should display a picture of Hitler. I’m exercising my right to criticise that story.

  11. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 5h5 hours ago

    The rapid expansion of the coal seam gas industry in Queensland’s Darling Downs has been accompanied by a startling rise in hospital admissions, according to report published in International Journal of Environmental Studies.

  12. dtt

    As you say the ‘tactical nuke weapon’ is not new. There was even one based on a 25 pounder shell specifically designed to be used in Europe.

    de Gaul a bit more openly sceptical of the American real commitment to NATO and prepared to do his own thing.

    The West Germans always were aware that the US thought it was a good place to stop Russian tanks …

  13. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 5h5 hours ago

    Dr Geralyn McCarron, found that acute hospital admissions for circulatory and respiratory diseases increased by up to 142% between 2007 and 2014. During the same period, pollutants reported by the CSG industry and known to cause cardiopulmonary illnesses rose by up to 6000%.

  14. lizzie says:
    Monday, January 15, 2018 at 5:51 pm

    This is all getting ridiculous. I haven’t seen any real kickback at Ch7.

    Craig Emerson‏ @DrCraigEmerson · 27m27 minutes ago

    So @7NewsMelbourne is defending its exclusive coverage of a meeting with neo-nazis who’ve described Jewish people as parasites & argued that every school should display a picture of Hitler. I’m exercising my right to criticise that story.

    #boycottChannel7, #Boycottchannel7 and other various iterations are trending on Twitter

  15. CTar1 @ #2072 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    dtt

    As you say the ‘tactical nuke weapon’ is not new. There was even one based on a 25 pounder shell specifically designed to be used in Europe.

    de Gaul a bit more openly sceptical of the American real commitment to NATO and prepared to do his own thing.

    The West Germans always were aware that the US thought it was a good place to stop Russian tanks …

    25 pounder? I hadn’t heard of anything that small, I read about 155mm howitzers.

  16. CTar1 @ #2076 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    bemused

    Philippines: Lava flows from Mount Mayon volcano, thousands evacuated

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/lava-flowing-from-philippine-volcano-thousands-evacuated/9330616

    Ever been there?
    I had seen photos and paintings showing it across rice fields and it looked like open land for quite a distance from any habitation.
    I visited and that is not so.
    There were rocks the size of a VW that had been thrown out and landed several Km away, occasionally on top of a farm house.
    And worse still, the city of Legazpi nestles up against the base on one side.

  17. Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 54m54 minutes ago
    Stephen Koukoulas Retweeted Dee Madigan

    I suspect most are those who are bagging Swannie have come through the ranks of ministerial offices or party HQ and only know “good” policy when it is approved by some lame arse focus group

  18. Bemused

    I think China will politely decline to fund a 10 fold increase in US nukes. I wonder why?

    Indeed there are whisperings about them pulling back on bond purchases (but these come and go)

  19. Since Trump is furiously undoing everything that Obama ever did, i am sure he cancelled the nuclear upgrade plan with a single stroke of his pen & then reinstated an identical Trump plan with yet another pen stroke.
    That way Obama did nothing & he did everything. -Easy!

  20. Nice of them to depict Trumble in Zombie form. It must be nice for a wraith like him to be depicted in corporeal form every now and again.

  21. bemused @ #2080 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 2:14 pm

    There were rocks the size of a VW that had been thrown out and landed several Km away, occasionally on top of a farm house.

    That’s something that gives you a true indication of the forces involved in a volcanic eruption.

    What would we need to duplicate such a feat? 🙂

  22. Barney in Go Dau @ #2088 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:39 pm

    CTar1 @ #2076 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 2:02 pm

    bemused

    Philippines: Lava flows from Mount Mayon volcano, thousands evacuated

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/lava-flowing-from-philippine-volcano-thousands-evacuated/9330616

    It’s a stunning looking volcano.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Supposedly the most perfect conical shape of all volcanoes.
    Legazpi is on the other side between the volcano and the sea. Complete evacuation in a hurry would be very difficult.

  23. Isn’t privatising wonderful

    U.K. Company Carillion is about to fold causing 14K staff to loose their jobs and hundreds of UK government contracts from building to cleaning to site maintenance up in the air.

    Where are the bottom feeders like the IPA on this issue?

  24. Looks like pressure from the ACTU for the banking RC to accept submissions from the public has paid off.

    It’s all a bit half-hearted of course. “The commission will be inviting submissions from members of the public and has been working for some time to design a form for this purpose.”

    Given that Turnbull was dragged kicking and screaming to have even this limited RC, it will be interesting to see how it is conducted.

    Nationals Senator Barry O’Sullivan told the ABC the commission needs to “take as much time and as much resources as one needs to get the job done”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/banking-royal-commission-to-invite-victims-to-submit-stories/9330428

  25. Queensland senator Fraser Anning has taken formal steps to cut ties with One Nation and become an independent, delivering a blow to Pauline Hanson’s hopes of increasing her influence in the Senate.

    Senator Anning wrote to Senate president Scott Ryan on Monday informing him he would sit as an independent, two months after he was elected to federal parliament to represent One Nation.

    The Australian understands Senator Anning will be recognised as a One Nation senator until he makes a statement to the Senate chamber about his decision, which is likely to occur on the first sitting day in February.

  26. How much time do they need to spend each day, covering up their true form?

    None,

    It’s like the Emperor’s New Clothes in reverse. Only idiots can’t see them as they really are.

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