Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:
• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.
• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.
• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.
• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.
Bw
Equivalent to a ham and cheese toastie and a flat white -V- a T-bone and Chips and two schooners ???
Essential prediction
2PP 53/47
Primary vote: Coalition: 34 Labor 36 Greens 9 PHON 6 NXT 4
PPM Turnbull 40 Shorten 30
net sat Turnbull -18 Shorten -20
William Bowe @ #2049 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:11 pm
What’s PB’s weekly trolling average?
So crazy emperor Colin built a new stadium, and it is finished and tested and ready to go. Obviously he needed to do his mates the Packers a favour and built it as an extension of Crown, and of course a footbridge to the WACA side, was stuffed up and delayed. It is supposed to have 15k ish pedestrians walking over it, but I really can’t see why you would, well unless there was no other choice, there is nothing on the WACA side, getting from the WACA to real Perth or public transport is a a real pain, having to get TO the WACA to then get to real Perth is just silly silly silly.
So of course if the Scorchers get to a home semi at the new stadium there will be 15000 seats capped out and empty, because the footbridge isn’t finished. Really bad stuff from the libs, but I’m sure in NSW it is a good investment and the state govt wont be doing favours for real estate developers or casino owners …
CTaR1
aka The extremely dangerous situation of your subway torpedo hung up and running hot in the tube: failure to lunch.
bemused
Unfortunately it is pay walled but perhaps this from Dec. 2016 remains today ?
.
“Trump’s Nuclear Boast Is Obama’s Modernization Plan
President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday tweeted his desire for the U.S. to “greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability,”
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-23/trump-s-nuclear-boast-is-obama-s-modernization-plan
WB – More useful and easier to integrate into Bludger Track in a fortnightly snapshot format?
Bw – 😀
No, not really.
poroti says: Monday, January 15, 2018 at 5:21 pm
bemused
Unfortunately it is pay walled but perhaps this from Dec. 2016 remains today ?
.
“Trump’s Nuclear Boast Is Obama’s Modernization Plan
President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday tweeted his desire for the U.S. to “greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability,”
***********************************************
This is not pay walled :
Exclusive: Here Is A Draft Of Trump’s Nuclear Review. He Wants A Lot More Nukes.
His first Nuclear Posture Review: more nukes, more posturing.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-nuclear-posture-review-2018_us_5a4d4773e4b06d1621bce4c5
failure to lunch
really makes me grumpy
ratsak @ #2061 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:28 pm
Failure to launch will just make your wife grumpy!
phRD
It’s a good demonstration of what a dill Trump is. NFI
Vic,
And it wouldn’t have even occurred to Workman to expose the media peeps who are happy to be party to Cash’s fraud. Simply pointing out the self evident truth that someone either in the government, ROC, or the Feds had tipped off the media for a blatantly political stunt was radical stuff. To it was indeed the most obvious candidate was positively heretical.
To have completed the job and properly chronicled how and why the media willingly aligns itself with power in order to mislead and so help entrench that power should have been the next step, but no doubt Alice identifies with her comrades in the media much more strongly than with the populace being lied to. Much safer to get a few half hearted slaps for breaking omerta, balanced by an equal number of quiet ‘goodonyas’ from those who still kid themselves that they haven’t completely sold out by skirting around the real story.
Phoenix
So what you are saying is that the Military has got in Trump’s ear and pushing for more nukes.
Obama had already moved in that direction, although I suspect more reluctantly.
We can agree it is insanity, but the idea of “battlefield nukes”has been around for a while.
Read an interesting article this morning (not sure I agree with it) but it was saying that Trump was right to suggest countries like Sth Korea and Japan (and I assume Australia but not specifically mentioned) because when push came to shove, the US would NOT risk Los Angeles for Taipei or Boston for Latvia or presumably Hawaii for Darwin.
It makes sense rationally if you think about it. It was apparently why DeGaul pushed for nukes in France.
Centrelink Update:
Response from Commonwealth Ombudsman…
‘We are aware of the extent of the delays in Centrelink’s Authorised Review Officer (ARO) review process’
And they said I HAVE to wait 3 months if the complaint is not finalised.
Fuck sake.
Failure to launch will just make your wife grumpy!
Sounds like the voice of experience GG.
There are medical interventions that might help you with your problem.
Ctari
For once we can agree!
Trouble is Trump uses rhetoric and exaggeration as everyday tools. Works well in the media but is useless in government.
Not sure how he plan to pay for this tenfold increase.
This is all getting ridiculous. I haven’t seen any real kickback at Ch7.
daretotread @ #2068 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:49 pm
Borrow more from China.
dtt
As you say the ‘tactical nuke weapon’ is not new. There was even one based on a 25 pounder shell specifically designed to be used in Europe.
de Gaul a bit more openly sceptical of the American real commitment to NATO and prepared to do his own thing.
The West Germans always were aware that the US thought it was a good place to stop Russian tanks …
ratsak @ #2067 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:49 pm
lol, Cheers.
dtt – It’s not the first time we’ve agreed.
bemused
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/lava-flowing-from-philippine-volcano-thousands-evacuated/9330616
#boycottChannel7, #Boycottchannel7 and other various iterations are trending on Twitter
CTar1 @ #2072 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:56 pm
25 pounder? I hadn’t heard of anything that small, I read about 155mm howitzers.
The Zombie Legends. Spreading fear and loathing in our community!
CTar1 @ #2076 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:02 pm
Ever been there?
I had seen photos and paintings showing it across rice fields and it looked like open land for quite a distance from any habitation.
I visited and that is not so.
There were rocks the size of a VW that had been thrown out and landed several Km away, occasionally on top of a farm house.
And worse still, the city of Legazpi nestles up against the base on one side.
bemused
Nah. Never really ventured beyond Manilla and Boracay.
Tourist visits mostly.
CTar1 @ #2081 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:17 pm
Lot more places I would like to go like Baguio, (rice terraces, high altitude) Zamboanga (right at the end of Mindanao, ever since I saw a photo taken at sunset there).
Bemused
I think China will politely decline to fund a 10 fold increase in US nukes. I wonder why?
Indeed there are whisperings about them pulling back on bond purchases (but these come and go)
lol, Cheers.
All part of the service.
daretotread @ #2084 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:27 pm
When they buy Treasury Bonds, it just goes into one big pot of borrowings.
Since Trump is furiously undoing everything that Obama ever did, i am sure he cancelled the nuclear upgrade plan with a single stroke of his pen & then reinstated an identical Trump plan with yet another pen stroke.
That way Obama did nothing & he did everything. -Easy!
CTar1 @ #2076 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 2:02 pm
It’s a stunning looking volcano.
Nice of them to depict Trumble in Zombie form. It must be nice for a wraith like him to be depicted in corporeal form every now and again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device)
Borrow more from China.
Don’t be silly Bemused. He’ll pay for it with tax cuts to the rich.
bemused @ #2080 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 2:14 pm
That’s something that gives you a true indication of the forces involved in a volcanic eruption.
What would we need to duplicate such a feat? 🙂
Barney in Go Dau @ #2088 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:39 pm
Supposedly the most perfect conical shape of all volcanoes.
Legazpi is on the other side between the volcano and the sea. Complete evacuation in a hurry would be very difficult.
ratsak @ #2089 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 2:40 pm
How much time do they need to spend each day, covering up their true form? 🙂
Isn’t privatising wonderful
U.K. Company Carillion is about to fold causing 14K staff to loose their jobs and hundreds of UK government contracts from building to cleaning to site maintenance up in the air.
Where are the bottom feeders like the IPA on this issue?
Looks like pressure from the ACTU for the banking RC to accept submissions from the public has paid off.
It’s all a bit half-hearted of course. “The commission will be inviting submissions from members of the public and has been working for some time to design a form for this purpose.”
Given that Turnbull was dragged kicking and screaming to have even this limited RC, it will be interesting to see how it is conducted.
Nationals Senator Barry O’Sullivan told the ABC the commission needs to “take as much time and as much resources as one needs to get the job done”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/banking-royal-commission-to-invite-victims-to-submit-stories/9330428
SNIP: Comment deleted on grounds of extreme stupidity.
Queensland senator Fraser Anning has taken formal steps to cut ties with One Nation and become an independent, delivering a blow to Pauline Hanson’s hopes of increasing her influence in the Senate.
Senator Anning wrote to Senate president Scott Ryan on Monday informing him he would sit as an independent, two months after he was elected to federal parliament to represent One Nation.
The Australian understands Senator Anning will be recognised as a One Nation senator until he makes a statement to the Senate chamber about his decision, which is likely to occur on the first sitting day in February.
bemused,
This what you mean?
How much time do they need to spend each day, covering up their true form?
None,
It’s like the Emperor’s New Clothes in reverse. Only idiots can’t see them as they really are.