BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 45
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  1. C@tmomma @ #37 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 8:35 am

    Kay Jay,
    I’m sure the Coalition and their boosters and shills on Sky, like Credlin, and that guy from WA, think they are flash rats like this:
    🙂

    Picture deleted to protect the innocent.

    I have viewed the image in your post using my kaleidoscope glasses.

    Result, slight feeling of dizziness and a burning desire to abstain from further viewings.

    I wonder is “flashraterati” a collective for your referenced boosters, shills and, I suppose, assorted users, urgers and colourful identities.

    😎 😵

  4. Kay Jay,
    I approve of the term, ‘flashraterati’, and will henceforth be appropriating it from you and using it for my own benefit! 😉

  9. Victoria says: Friday, February 23, 2018 at 8:49 am

    PhoenixRed

    Since this latest tragic shooting in Florida and the renewed focus on the NRA, I have been musing about one of the actors in this shit show, Maria Butina, whose name is strangely close to Putin.
    Anyhoo I am thinking she is in Mueller’s sights and very well could be the key between Putin and Trump.
    Interesting times………

    *****************************************************

    Very interesting find Victoria – honestly, its impossible to keep track of the tentacles linked to Trump – turn over a rock and another creature crawls out – it will be fascinating to eventually find all the links that Mueller/Schneiderman turn up.

    The Washington Post have tried to keep a running* Connection Map* of who they know are linked to Trump – last updated Jan 25 – but it is just staggering to see who and how all these players are inter-connected – a cast bigger than Ben-Hur

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/trump-russia/?hpid=hp_no-name_graphic-story-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.0c8504cbb225

  10. So, dumb question. How can Turnbull use our super funds to porkbarrel US electorates?

    My understanding is that I can choose which super fund to give my money to, and that super fund chooses what to invest the money in, which can include domestic or foreign assets including infrastructure, stocks, bond, currency, bitcoin if they feel like it.

    So my super already can be used to build roads in the USA.

    So Turnbull’s not talking about making it possible, because it already is possible?

    So is he talking about begging my super fund to do it, or forcing them to?

  11. Remember what people said, Barnaby is safe if the NSW branch holds for him.

    If Gillespie and McCormack have turned on him … I count seven that I’m pretty sure would support a spill, still four short.

  12. Victoria @ #57 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 8:56 am

    C@t

    Hmmm. The cop re AWU musings is from WA. Michaela Cash is a minister from WA.

    So is Matthias Cormann. The smiling assassin, if words from WA about his attempts to take control of the Liberal Party are any indication of his character.

    Yeah, it smells fishy alright. So, after an $80 Million Credlin/Abbott RC into this stuff found nothing, they want to dredge it up again!?! Just because some ‘retired Fraud Squad detective’ says the investigation wasn’t properly conducted!?!

    Iirc, he has said it all before and the WA Police Commissioner slapped him down and said the investigation WAS conducted properly.

    I know they really want to make a link between dodgy AWU dealings and Shorten, but this is a long bow!

  14. PhoenixRed

    It is hard to follow all the tentacles.
    But the focus once again of the NRA directed my mind back to this player and now I feel she could be a very important part of the puzzle.
    Time will tell

  15. C@t

    Michaela Cash is attempting to do some arse covering for her dubious interference in chasing up AWU for the get up donation and as far as I know it is still before the federal court.

  16. C@tmomma @ #54 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 8:52 am

    Kay Jay,
    I approve of the term, ‘flashraterati’, and will henceforth be appropriating it from you and using it for my own benefit! 😉

    I will now sally forth, amowing and aweedeatering, secure in the knowledge that we (Brown Bear and I) are safe from the depredations of marauding flashraterati.

    Safe because the neighborhood is already being raided by the aforementioned property developers cum real estate gentlemen of low repute.

  17. kezza2 says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 6:54 am

    I dunno . . .

    I’m not too impressed with a media campaign to drive someone out of office because . . . well, just because it can.

    I agree, but then again I might be biased because at the moment I would like BJ to hang on by a thread so he can do more damage to the L-NP.

    I’m not sure I’m up to date on the latest scandal, but I believe a complaint about harassment has been made to the WA Nats, and the details have not been confirmed. If that is still the case it seems a bit flimsy to me. Just about everyone in politics has enemy’s in their own party, especially when the leadership is up for grabs.

  18. Is BB lurking around? Wonder what he thinks of Catherine McGregor’s lastest insights on Malcolm deft skills (I could only read the first three lines).

    What was Ms McGregor’s job in the military before she became a Fairfax columnist? Strategic thinking?

  19. Hopefully the media gets over the NSW MP texting thing ASAP.

    We don’t care that they are having sex. We don’t care that one of them was in a relationship. Neither of them is the other’s boss, so there’s no grey area around whether consent is genuine, and less opportunities for misuse of public funds.

    Neither person involved got a promotion for the other in a process where only 1 person was interviewed.

  21. The longer Barnyard hangs on the happier Shorten gets.

    A lost spill motion defeated by Joyce’s single vote would be the most entertaining result.

  22. Victoria says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 9:16 am
    C@t

    Michaela Cash is attempting to do some arse covering for her dubious interference in chasing up AWU for the get up donation and as far as I know it is still before the federal court.

    I thought the excuse the media have for not chasing that is because the AFP are investigating? All rather convenient if you ask me, the AFP investigating an AFP raid. We need a federal ICAC.

  23. Four years after the Australian government was repeatedly warned the mould growing throughout Nauru’s regional processing centres was making people sick, refugee families, including young children, are still being forced to live under rotting canvas in Nauru.

    At least 330 refugees and asylum seekers, including 36 children, still live in mould-prone tents on Nauru. Some tents and work buildings have previously been found to be “highly toxic”, with the level of mould measured at up to 76 times the normal, safe level.

    At least a dozen former staff who have worked in the regional processing centre are understood to have developed conditions from exposure to mould and breathing the contaminated air in the buildings. The conditions include toxic mould syndrome, cognitive and neurological symptoms, chronic pain and chest infections.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/23/nauru-refugees-asylum-seekers-and-staff-exposed-to-highly-toxic-mould

  24. Good morning all,

    The rehash of the AWU allegations is being driven by the one and only Michael Smith. The same Michael Smith who has a passionate personal dislike for Julia Gillard and who is on a personal crusade against her. He is feeding the Australian the ” new information “.

    What should be remembered thst as a result of the RC the AWU matter has been , once again, investigated by the Victorian police and WA police. All of the documentation and evidence would have been examined with a fine tooth comb once again and so far, after almost three or four years all that has resulted is the WA police have filed charges against Ralph Blewett.

    Blewett is a mate of Smith and , I assume, Smith is not happy that his ” real dinky Di Aussie battler mate ” is up for it.

    Cheers.

  26. “What was Ms McGregor’s job in the military before she became a Fairfax columnist? Strategic thinking?”

    If it was, i am glad she is out of the Army now.

  28. Imacca – C MacGregor should stick to her cricket analysis – which is quite good most of the time, nd stay out of politics since she is a good mate of Abbott so her opinions will be skewed

  31. One thing for McGreggor is that she could admit she was wrong, as opposed to the contortionist-like efforts the CPG goes to to avoid admitting that.

  32. Re the gun debate and the US, I wonder if it would be legal for the govt to ban all weapons other than those that were in use when the 2nd amendment was written.?
    You can own a gun but it has to be a musket.

  34. Julie Bishop‏Verified account
    @JulieBishopMP

    Talking sustainable fashion with Duchess of Cambridge at #BuckinghamPalace #FashionExchange bringing together designers and artisans from 53 #Commonwealth nations #LondonFashionWeek

  35. “Fergus Hunter writes on how senior ministers are lining up to criticise Abbott over his immigration comments.”

    —-

    A sure sign that Abbott must have said something right!

  40. Even MacGregor’s cricket analysis is pretty white bread and lacking insight. She rehashes orthodox opinion most of the time.

  42. J341983 @ #81 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 9:39 am

    One thing for McGreggor is that she could admit she was wrong, as opposed to the contortionist-like efforts the CPG goes to to avoid admitting that.

    Doesn’t her article start with something like ‘2 weeks ago I wrote about how I thought I saw green shoots springing…’ whereas, if I recall rightly, the article basically said that Turnbull had Shorten’s measure and it was glasses down for the next election.

    jenauthor @ #78 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 9:35 am

    Imacca – C MacGregor should stick to her cricket analysis – which is quite good most of the time, nd stay out of politics since she is a good mate of Abbott so her opinions will be skewed

    Your being very generous on her cricket commentary as well Jen. Beg to disagree on that one.

  44. J341983 says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 9:46 am
    Kate is thinking… “how do I get away from this woman to talk to Anna Wintour?”

    I’m wondering what Downer is thinking (and for some reason I expected him to dress like the Scarlet Pimpernel for fashion week).

  45. davrosz: Brilliance by Cormann and Morrison to use Qantas – a business that hasn’t paid company tax in years – to promote the need for corporate tax cuts.

  46. 9NewsAUS: Clive Palmer has confirmed the Executive Committee of the Palmer United Party had resolved to contest the next Federal Election. #AusPol #9News pic.twitter.com/b6YTTnxqUi

  47. Question @ #94 Friday, February 23rd, 2018 – 9:52 am

    J341983 says:
    Friday, February 23, 2018 at 9:46 am
    Kate is thinking… “how do I get away from this woman to talk to Anna Wintour?”

    I’m wondering what Downer is thinking (and for some reason I expected him to dress like the Scarlet Pimpernel for fashion week).

    He’s not thinking much. He never did. Just leering. There’s the better part of 17 years of shite Australian Foreign Ministers in that photo.

  48. ErykBagshaw: Sco Mo literally jumps in front of Cormann responding to questions about Barnaby. “Let me talk about the issue here. We absolutely agree that Australia’s cities in particular need to address the infrastructure challenges that the country has.” #auspol

  49. Marc CaputoVerified account@MarcACaputo
    32m32 minutes ago
    The armed school resource officer at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School responded to the shooting BUT NEVER WENT IN for “upward or 4 minutes” while the gunmen killed people, said Sheriff Scott Israel.

    Marc CaputoVerified account@MarcACaputo
    21m21 minutes ago
    Sheriff Scott Israel said Officer Scott Peterson failed by waiting outside the Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS building for about 4 of 6 minutes while Nikolas Cruz killed 17 people

    What should Peterson have done

    Israel: “Went in. Addressed the killer. Killed the killer”

  50. Marc CaputoVerified account@MarcACaputo
    31m31 minutes ago
    “Never went in” Sheriff said. Officer “clearly” could hear gunfire

    Sheriff: “Devastated.Sick to my stomach. There are no words.These families lost their children. We lost coaches. I’ve been to the funerals. I’ve been to the homes where they sit in shiva. I’ve been to the vigils”

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