This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.
If the Parliamentary Labor Party, and in particular its leadership, had over time properly reflected the views of rank and file Labor members, then the Greens would barely be a splinter…
When parties have the balance of power they generally try and get policies they stand for enacted as a condition of their support. The Greens are very vocally in favour of anti-coal policies and would presumably be likely to seek anti-coal policies in a deal with he ALP.
Bill Shorten recently said that there is a future for coal.
It is thus very likely that a minority ALP Government reliant on the Greens would be more likely to enact anti-coal policies than a majority ALP Government.
It is, of course, a matter of very public record that the ALP vote with the Liberal government on the Senate far more than the Greens vote with the Liberal government.
zoomster @ #1650 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 10:26 pm
Yes, the inescapable conclusion.
Now I wonder why?
Tom the first and best @ #1652 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 10:28 pm
Yes, a declining future.
Use of coal will not stop over night, particularly metallurgical coal.
Martin B @ #1653 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 10:29 pm
A meaningless statement without examining each of the votes and the reasons why.
Look at that. Identical ties. Identical suits. Ugh!
In the unlikely (in my view but I am partisan) event that Labor win the most seats but not a majority in the next election I would hope Shorten would meet the crossbenchers, ask them for guarantees of confidence and supply except in cases of proven malfeasance or corruption and then tell them to go and sit in the corner.
They will be able to negotiate on legislation but there would be no deals, no vetoes. And if they wanted to bring down the government over some pet issue well good luck.
See how much principle people have when their jobs are on the line.
Tom the first and best @ #1655 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 10:28 pm
Bill Shorten has said much more than that about the Adani mine. Why concentrate on that one statement? It’s disingenuous.
Also, Bill Shorten is exactly right to say there is a future for coal. Thermal Coal. You can’t make steel with anything else right now. Or, have The Greens found that magic pixie dust works just as well?
Thermal coal is the burn for heating (mainly power plant water boiling) coal.
Metallurgical coal, a higher grade of coal, is the steel making coal.
All the discussion today about candidates being a bit tired and people liking the odd drink has reminded me of an apology which I recall was printed in a British newspaper:
“We apologise to the distinguished Colonel ??? for referring to him in a recent story as bottle-scarred. This was a typographical error; it should have read “battle-scared”.
We saw the impact of the Greens and legislation successively passed in the Lower House on multiple occasions defeated in the Senate because of Minchin and Abbott and the “climate change is crap” agenda and because the Greens were at the other end of the equation and wanted stronger legislation
And look at the outcome, 10 years later on the back of “stop the tax”
So, for one, I will never vote Green because of what that fiasco taught me
The Greens may be able to obstruct in the Senate on occasion
But, unlike the fiasco we see in Canberra now with the Liberal Party subservient to the National Party we will never see a Labor government in Coalition with the Greens and subservient to the Greens
The reason is, when Labor win elections they have the numbers in their own right
The Liberals have no prospect of that being the case – when have the Liberals ever governed in their own right – they always govern in Coalition
Hopefully, in Batman the electors recognise this and vote to tell this dysfunctional Federal government that their time is up and the electorate are waiting with the proverbial baseball bats
It is also interesting that the Greens contest Labor seats, giving advantage to a Tory, the most effective form of regulation is self regulation supporting trickle down economics and the big end of town agenda
So what is their ultimate purpose?
As I say, when Labor win elections they win in their own right because they take Liberal seats – and maybe Greens preferences impact but that is as much as they contribute
When Labor and the Coalition had 75 seats each, Labor relied on Independents, not the Greens
The current 2PP polling is continuing the established trend of, at least, 53-47 so Labor will have a comfortable majority leaving any Greens in the Lower House irrelevant because they will not be relied on for a non Conservative majority on the floor of the House
So on the cross benches
Then when the Nationals and Liberal split comes in opposition that introduces two another negotiating parties in the Senate
Tom the first and best @ #1663 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 10:46 pm
Okay, so we will need that one into the future! 🙂
Thanks Tom on outlining the futility of voting green.
According to your arguments, the only time the greens can do something is in a situation of a Labor minority government, in which they’ve entered into some sort of coalition with the greens
Improbability factor of a bowl of petunias suddenly coming into existence…
Coal from the Galilee basin is not suitable as metallurgical coal as the ash content is too high. If you think the future for coal is steel-making it should be pretty easy to exclude Adani from that future.
Of the eight single-member districts represented by Greens in Australian lower houses, three of them were won from conservative incumbents or as notionally conservative seats.
Good night all.
C@tmomma @ #1577 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 9:15 pm
Tell me about it. I’m doing a locum in Gympie. My feet are getting wrinkled, but the frogs seem to enjoy it.
Martin, economics has excluded Adani, not the greens
Observer:
Good post. The Greens are not a party of govt.
Every Green leader has hidden in the senate.
C@tmomma @ #1657 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 10:36 pm
And identical minds.
Tom.
Vogon Poet @ #1667 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 11:03 pm
Yes, as demand dies and prices fall, coal mining will slow and eventually stop.
Whether Australia mines coal or not matters little while ever the demand is there because others will supply. It is all gesture politics with the Greens. There is no need, as economics will stop Adani and lead to a decline in other mines until they eventually close.
It’s somewhat telling that Turnbull is wearing a red tie in that photo with Trump. In Australia, the Libs make sure they are always wearing blue ties. Of course, in the US, blue is the colo(u)r of the Democrats.
It’s amazing the level of obsequiousness that Turnbull will sink to.
Greens do not hide in the Senate. The Greens in the Senate do the opposite, they bring more attention to the Senate (through more of the legislative decisions being decided in the Senate), including themselves. This is the same with the other Senate crossbenchers. It is only some ALP and Coalition Senators, mainly backbenchers, who hide in the Senate.
Effectively all Senate crossbenchers are frontbenchers, in all but pay and staffing, as they do not have sufficient numbers for a backbench, are major spokes people for their party/themselves and have major power in their party room/themselves.
Or is,”frontbencher” a term for a minister or their opposition shadow?
The coalition is generally aligned with the GOP.
But I am very confident that Turnbull is going through the motions of showing unwavering support to our most important ally, and not because he thinks Trump is wonderful.
Frontbenchers are those members who sit on the front benches. That is ministers and shadow ministers.
The tie color is simply showing the host some respect.
Metallurgical coal?
It is entirely possible to make steel without burning coal on a blast furnace.
And without Greens pixie dust, either.
Good old engineering. Pretty much all high quality steel and recycled steel is produced by EAF. Electric arc furnace.
For example here in WA the old BHP blast furnace has been mothballed. I am not sure but the site has probably been sold.
However steel is produced by EAF, in the hills.
Manufacturers who use renewably sourced electricity in their EAF may market the steel and ecosteel.
With modern metallurgy and engineering , smaller amounts of specific grade steel are used suited to each purpose. Blast furnace steel may be cheaper per tonne, but EAF are a rapidly increasing proportion of production.
After we stop burning coal, we will still have steel. No pixie dust required.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_arc_furnace
Tom @ #1669 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
Tom @ #1669 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
I don’t know.
I think Trump has bigger hands than Turnbull!!! 🙂
Frontbencher is a term for the MPs and Senators in a party who are at forefront of party decisions and announcements and usually have their own portfolios.
Here are the Green portfolios
https://greensmps.org.au/portfolios
At least Turnbull’s hair is more authentic than Trump’s.
davidwh
Yep. Even if the host doesn’t merit respect.
I am no fan of Turnbull, but he knows what Trump is all about.
Australia is showing respect to our most important ally.
“Frontbenchers are those members who sit on the front benches.”
Alex Buzo would have loved you:
https://www.amazon.com/Tautology-Dont-Sound-Incredulous-Believe/dp/0140700935/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8
Tom the first and best @ #1680 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 7:55 pm
It’s a term that is only relevant when talking about the Government and their main Opposition Party’s shadows.
For minor Parties they are referred to as “spokesperson”.
Indentical IQ
In our system, the minister/shadow minister definition seems to have more usefulness than the party spokesperson definition.
Party leaders in the Senate usually sit on the actual front bench in the Senate. Currently that has DiNatale, Leyonhelm, Hanson and Greens Deputy Leader Siewert on the actual front bench.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Seating_Plan
Opposition and Green portfolio holders have equal levels of legal power, i.e. the same as a backbencher. They hold their position divide up responsibility for promoting party policies and holding the government and other parties to account.
Yes, Russia likely did swing votes to Trump. http://m.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-russia-election-impact_us_5a9098abe4b03b55731c37df
Metallurgical coal?
It is entirely possible to make steel without burning coal on a blast furnace.
And without Greens pixie dust, either.
Good old engineering. Pretty much all high quality steel and recycled steel is produced by EAF. Electric arc furnace.
For example here in WA the old BHP blast furnace has been mothballed. I am not sure but the site has probably been sold.
However steel is produced by EAF, in the hills.
Manufacturers who use renewably sourced electricity in their EAF may market the steel and ecosteel.
With modern metallurgy and engineering , smaller amounts of specific grade steel are used suited to each purpose. Blast furnace steel may be cheaper per tonne, but EAF are a rapidly increasing proportion of production.
After we stop burning coal, we will still have steel. No pixie dust required.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_arc_furnace
Or
https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/blog/2018/Is-it-time-for-China-to-switch-to-EAF-steelmaking.html
Tom the first and best @ #1689 Saturday, February 24th, 2018 – 8:07 pm
I think you’ll find they don’t get paid the same because there is a real difference as one is part of an alternate Government and is recognise as the official Opposition.
Sitting in the front row of the cross benches is not the same as being on the front benches. The term only refers to ministers and shadow ministers. That is clearly spelt out on the Parliament web site.
Bemused @10:31PM: “The Liberals attitude to the Greens is demonstrated by the fact they’re considering not running candidates in seats where the Greens have a chance of winning. In other words, the Liberals think it’s better for them to have a Green elected than someone from the ALP.
Yes, the inescapable conclusion.
Now I wonder why?”
I think because it damages Labor, for example possibly preventing a Labor majority. Just as One Nation or a Xenephone taking a Liberal or National seat would damage the Coalition. I would certainly preference an X candidate ahead of a “Liberal”.
I appreciate that Turnbull (and later hopefully Shorten) needs to be professional, respectful and businesslike in his dealings with Donald Trump, just as they need to be as they deal with various tinpot dictators (any number of trading partners in the Middle East) and hard line leaders of authoritarian regimes (e.g. China) who are trading partners or with whom we have common or conflicting interests.
But he doesn’t have to be Trump’s best mate. This fawning is nauseating.
Syria:
Not surprising.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-24/fear-spreads-anew-in-syrian-capital-of-damascus/9481734
http://coalaction.org.nz/carbon-emissions/can-we-make-steel-without-coal
Good article.
Also I might add that there is a lot of carbon sitting around in landfills that can be dug up and reused for various things – including steel making.
Extra remuneration (and any extra staff), above standard backbencher rates, is less than a decade old (except for office-bearers like leaders). It was added by the ALP Government when Abbott was Opposition Leader. The same could be done for crossbench portfolio holders.
It’s interesting that Turnbull/Trump is wearing red tie….
Labor normally wears red ties…
Coalition have blue ties…
Hi from Hong Kong.
On my way to Korea for work (yes, the southern bit). Just into the last two hours of an 8 hour lay-over. So lucky I fly enough for work to have lounge access, and the Cathay lounge here serves Möet!
Trying to keep awake, and so have read Le Monde, the broadsheet from Paris left of Le Figaro. Not sure on the absolute calibration of that left-right scale however.
I can report, that unlike the anglophone press around the world, there is not a single reference to Barnaby Joyce.
On the other hand, Australia’s gun control laws, and their success, have a quarter of page three. Most of the first three pages is devoted to the Parkland “fusillade”, and how out of control the USA is when it comes to mass shootings.