BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 53
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  1. Barney in Go Dau @ #189 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 11:27 am

    adrian @ #189 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 8:24 am

    What does all this actually MEAN (sic)

    Now that’s a good question, but no need to shout.

    NFI!!!!!!

    I’m not sure if it’s me or her! 🙂

    Adrian

    Not shouting, but in the absence of any easy way to highlight a word in a long post eg bold or italics, caps is it.

    Look in a long post sometimes you need to emphasise a word or question etc. Bolding would be the best but I have no idea how to do it, without complex html code.

  4. The Commonwealth Bank has blinked in the run-up to the banking royal commission by agreeing to repay $16 million to more than 140,000 customers who have bought “junk” insurance products.

    The bank’s move will see it scrap controversial personal loan insurance less than two weeks before the commission had planned to examine its actions in the area.

    CBA plans to spend $16 million repaying customers who have bought the insurance and admitted that “some customers who have been sold these products may not have been eligible to receive all of the employment-related benefits”.

    The commission had scheduled hearings into CBA’s credit insurance during the first two weeks of its sittings in late March.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/03/07/cba-credit-card-insurance-royal-commission/

  6. The Newman Qld LNP government also ordered foreign built trains that don’t “fit” in various ways. For some reason, any story I’ve seen on their ABC highlights this as a Labor problem, and never/rarely mentions who ordered the things i the first place.

  8. IOM,

    It’s actually futile gesturism rather than influence. This is something for which the Greens are especially renowned,

    The Government re-intstated the permits this morning. So, the project continues.

    The benefit for the Goverment is that both the Greens and the Libs are seen as political amateurs hell bent on posturing rather than achievements. Golf claps for them!

    The added bonuses ares that the Libs get caught playing handsies with the Party most voting Libs despise with a passion and they get to be portrayed as anti infrastructure development.

    Oh, and thanks to the Greens for all the preferences.

  9. GG

    This truckie jumped the gun.
    A few hundred meters further and it would have been in the Burnley Tunnel …

    ?pubId=3910869709001

  11. Victoria says: Thursday, March 8, 2018 at 12:42 pm

    PhoenixRed

    The story is developing…..
    Funny that.
    It was a feature of team patriot reporting more than a year ago!

    **********************************************************

    As are/were many reports by Louise Mensch and to be fair it did also appear in the Washington Post and Slate …….

  12. Vogon Poet @ #193 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 11:38 am

    Dtt

    What troubles me about the Labor green wars is the lack of any objective reasoning on the part of the ALPers as to WHY there is a war in the first place.

    The greens batman htv card neatly summarizes the problem with the greens

    Vogon

    I have not looked at the Batman HTV, but provided it puts Labor ahead of the Libs I guess I am not too fussed.

    The point I am trying to make is that the Greens and Labor are quite divergent in their views, especially on matters of human rights, environmental protection and international affairs, and that as a result there is not 100% agreement. This divergence seems to be increasing with time and there is now increased animosity between Labor and the Greens, such that mutually harmful conflict is increasing.

    For example carrying on like pork chops abut the Greens opposing a road tunnel is batshit bonkers. Greens ALWAYS oppose big road developments. It is deep within their DNA since they grew out of citizen’s action movements often opposed to freeways. Labor should never expect the Greens to support them on a road tunnel, just as I would not expect the ACA to support them on an euthanasia bill. On the other hand had it been on a social justice issue there would be an expectation of solid Green support.

    When I posted that list of issues, I think it is reasonable to assume that wherever they are A or B issues then no party is for shifting or compromise.

    The key for labor is that by and large the greens WILL support their agenda. Labor can expect support on 80% of their agenda, which is pretty good. The greens on the other hand have perhaps more right to feel aggrieved since they probably only will get support on 40% of their agenda.

    The sad thing for progressive politics, but probably inevitable, is that the competition for seats is leading to bitter rivalry between the Greens and the ALP. This can only lead to tears, and a win for the Right Wing.

  14. “I have not looked at the Batman HTV, but provided it puts Labor ahead of the Libs I guess I am not too fussed.”

    The Liberals aren’t running a candidate in Batman. The HTV is pretty meaningless as Labor and the Greens will be the two parties remaining at the final count. Neither party is going to hand out HTVs that put themselves anywhere other than first.

  15. Given that about 80% of Greens’ preferences usually go to Labor, it seems the current Greens leadership is out of touch with their voter base by seeking alliances with the Liberals and forever criticising Labor.

  16. There are now dozens of “mosquito repellent” apps available online for your smartphone.

    The sounds may now be available with a swipe of the finger, rather than a flick of a switch, but the general sale pitch remains the same, silence the mosquito bites with sound.

    It’s all wishful thinking. There is no evidence sound-emitting devices can stop mosquitoes biting. A review of field testing showed no protection was provided. Similarly, laboratory studies failed to show any bite prevention.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-08/mosquitos-smart-phones/9526870

  17. DTT @12:21PM: good post, I’ve been thinking of doing one like that in the last couple of days. There will be differences of opinion with regard to the ratings, but it looks to me to be broadly on track. It does put the Labor-Green wars into perspective. The two will never agree (otherwise they wouldn’t be separate parties), but they need to concentrate on the common enemy of nearly all that both parties stand for.

    P.S: a similar table with the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation would be interesting. It would require a rating or column which means ‘secretly agree with’.

  18. Murdoch mouthpiece: (wtte) Australians are stupid.

    Hidden dangers of union merger
    ROBERT GOTTLIEBSEN
    Australians do not fully understand the serious implications from any merger of the CFMEU and MUA.

  19. Guytaur @12:53PM. I can head North without paying a toll, or East until I encounter the Tasman sea, but if I want to head West or cross the Harbour, it’s toll toll toll. I could avoid these by way of traffic-choked circuitous routes to avoid the Harbour Bridge / Tunnel, or clogged alternate routes to the West. The tolls aren’t a big deal for me, but they add up. If I was commuting daily, paying off a mortgage and supporting a family, tolls would be a big deal.

  20. “Well it indicates that essentially the greens and the ALP are like minded on most economic and social equity issues. They diverge quite a bit on many environmental issues, especially where the rights of workers clash with green objectives and there are marked differences in most of the human rights , civil liberties and international issues.”

    Like-minded on most issues and yet one party does all the heavy lifting and the other carps and wedges

    It’s not about policy – the Greens policy platform is next to irrelevant as they will never have to implement it – it is about undermining the progressive party of government and acting as useful fools for the tories

  21. Poor Tones. His masculinity is so vulnerable.

    “I’m a little worried about what often sounds like an anti-man agenda.”

    Former Prime Minister @TonyAbbottMHR tells @BenFordham he’s wary of quotas.

    Full story >> http://bit.ly/2FzQ4KF

  22. Steve

    It explains why prices are heading up in Sydney. Trucks pay higher.

    It also explains why so many are paying instead for public transport in Sydney

  24. Steve777 @ #215 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 12:13 pm

    DTT @12:21PM: good post, I’ve been thinking of doing one like that in the last couple of days. There will be differences of opinion with regard to the ratings, but it looks to me to be broadly on track. It does put the Labor-Green wars into perspective. The two will never agree (otherwise they wouldn’t be separate parties), but they need to concentrate on the common enemy of nearly all that both parties stand for.

    P.S: a similar table with the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation would be interesting. It would require a rating or column which means ‘secretly agree with’.

    Yes i like the idea of one with the Libs, Nats ACA and PHON,but I am not part of the hive mind so it would be pretty inaccurate.

  25. daretotread. @ #212 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 1:03 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #193 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 11:38 am

    Dtt

    What troubles me about the Labor green wars is the lack of any objective reasoning on the part of the ALPers as to WHY there is a war in the first place.

    The greens batman htv card neatly summarizes the problem with the greens

    Vogon

    I have not looked at the Batman HTV, but provided it puts Labor ahead of the Libs I guess I am not too fussed.

    —

    WTF?

    The Libs are not running a candidate. Please do pay attention.

    The Greentards HTV is simply a mendacious attack on Labor.

  27. “DTT @12:21PM: good post, I’ve been thinking of doing one like that in the last couple of days. There will be differences of opinion with regard to the ratings, but it looks to me to be broadly on track. It does put the Labor-Green wars into perspective. The two will never agree (otherwise they wouldn’t be separate parties), but they need to concentrate on the common enemy of nearly all that both parties stand for.”

    Agree, the significant enemy is the Tory and the first order cause is to keep them out of government. Labor in this parliament contributes 69 of 76 required seats to this end. The Greens have one that the tories could never win and are directing all their energies into a couple of others the tories could never win that 69 column.

    So if the Greens do absolutely nothing towards achieving progressive government but actually undermine the prospect then….????

  29. ** What troubles me about the Labor green wars is the lack of any objective reasoning **
    What troubles me is the excessive posts and post lengths often dedicated to it.

    I am also troubled by ‘objective reasoning’,
    *Reasoning; The action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way.
    *Logical; of or according to the rules of logic or formal argument. Syn – objective.
    ergo the word ‘objective’ is redundant.

  30. Practicality @ #218 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 12:22 pm

    “Well it indicates that essentially the greens and the ALP are like minded on most economic and social equity issues. They diverge quite a bit on many environmental issues, especially where the rights of workers clash with green objectives and there are marked differences in most of the human rights , civil liberties and international issues.”

    Like-minded on most issues and yet one party does all the heavy lifting and the other carps and wedges

    It’s not about policy – the Greens policy platform is next to irrelevant as they will never have to implement it – it is about undermining the progressive party of government and acting as useful fools for the tories

    The problem is that I suspect that Lloyd George and the other whigs said something similar about the British Labour Party. Times change. Parties rise and fall.

    The greens do have a niche now in most lower houses . Being in a BoP position from time to time is expected. I think it unlikely they will ever emerge as a rival of the ALP – seemed possible in the time of Brown, but not so much now, however times change and so do party fortunes.

  31. Barney
    ** Did you see they’re appointing a new manager even before the current one has played a match! **

    I need to see what Postecoglou says about it before I decide my objectively reasoned position.

  32. Hehe,

    Victoria I can’t think of any greater carping, moaning and whingeing than from the likes of some of the prolific posters on this blog.
    Really, infantile slogans and willful ignorance suffices for their so-called great parties sake.
    Why would anyone even bother to care what you or anyone else has to say, given the often insulting and imbecilic diatribes about others which appear to be the norm around here.

    “Victoria says:
    Thursday, March 8, 2018 at 12:36 pm
    Voice endeavour

    What I was really attempting to express but didn’t put into words, is that the Greens will whinge and moan at every single opportunity towards Labor.”

  33. Simon Katich @ #227 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 12:34 pm

    ** What troubles me about the Labor green wars is the lack of any objective reasoning **
    What troubles me is the excessive posts and post lengths often dedicated to it.

    I am also troubled by ‘objective reasoning’,
    *Reasoning; The action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way.
    *Logical; of or according to the rules of logic or formal argument. Syn – objective.
    ergo the word ‘objective’ is redundant.

    Hmm! Not really so

    If you have false assumptions or subjective assumptions then you can be very reasoned but still absolutely wrong.

  37. DTT -If you have false assumptions or subjective assumptions then you can be very reasoned but still absolutely wrong.

    I looked it up before I posted and the term ‘objective reasoning’ certainly gets a guernsey on the interwebby thing. But I am not budging from my objective reasoning. Redundant. Probs not a tautology but I just like to slip in the word ‘tautology’ when I can.

  39. Not long ago there was talk of wall-to-wall Labor governments across Australia.

    Tasmania has wrecked that, but the mainland is still possible.

    Queensland Labor got there on the coat-tails of One Nation.

    One Nation helped WA Labor win in a landslide.

    Labor is strong in the NT and the ACT.

    NSW Labor is making a comeback. Victorian Labor is hanging in there.

    Federal Labor is nicely ahead but there’s a long way to go.

    The next test is SA in nine days. Labor’s been there 16 years and has plenty of virulent critics. Xenophon’s SA Best threw it a lifeline but the X-factor seems to be in decline. Labor hasn’t helped itself by issuing a split ticket in seats like Hartley, where the Libs are on the favorable left-hand side and X is on the right-hand side. As well, the Greens, to preserve their patch, have preferenced against the X team everywhere.

    The result may well be clean air for the Libs.

  40. To turn to the more appropriate matter at hand the Labor party has demonstrated that quotas have been successful in getting women into parliament. I believe they are almost at a 50-50 split now. The Liberals/Nats dont have quotas and have very few women in their ranks. I do not know if the Greens have quotas on gender for candidates but are lacking in this area when compared to Labor but dramatically better than Lib/Nats.

    *i havent considered state parliaments. Only federal.

  41. BK

    in the last few months in WA we have had a handful of homebuilders and some bigger construction contractors go to the wall.

    What little money that can be realised from the liquidation most likely will go to the accountants and the subcontractors will get nothing.

    One firm I read the other day was about $25 million in debt and had no money and few assets. The report from the regulator said it had most likely been trading insolvent for a fair bit of the time since it was first set up some years ago.

    And what will happen? The people who ran the companies will no doubt have been paid their wages and will have protected their assets so they can walk away and at some time in the future do it again.

    Australian business regulators are, in my opinion, weak as water.

    I like to remind people that Bernie Madoff, who ran the world’s biggest Ponzi scheme, was in jail about a a year after his fraud was uncovered.

    In Australia he would have been investigated for a couple of years, a file would be sent to the DPP which would sit on it for a bit longer and the end result would most likely be a deal which would see the offender fined and disqualified from running a business for a token period.

    And then he would bob up later running some other dodgy scheme.

  42. Ides

    I have been leaving the comments about IWD to the woman on this blog.

    If any missed it Tanya Plibersek was excellent on yesterday’s National Press Club Address

  43. Quoll

    Hehehe.
    As I have said to those who don’t want to read about the Trump imbroglio.
    Scroll on by , cos if I want to whinge about the useless Greens, I am going to continue to do so. I am not concerned that you don’t appreciate it

  44. ** The next test is SA in nine days. Labor’s been there 16 years **
    Yeah, but Tom Playford Snr was in for 28 years. And now SABest has Tom Playford Jnr doing promos for Nick; that little stat is back in the headlines.

    As for Tom, what were you thinking? Still, it is a step up from his flight of fancy foray with Family First FFS.

  45. Dan Gulberry says:

    ** Telstra trouble?**
    Things have been in decline since Bob Dylan was awarded a Nobel Prize.

    Not half as steep a decline as that caused by Kissinger getting a Nobel Peace Prize !

  46. This shows what can be achieved by a government with a bit of ambition. And this is the Tories we’re talking about.

  47. One Nation helped WA Labor win in a landslide? That will be a comfort to Colin Barnett who likes to blame everybody else for the thrashing he was handed.

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