The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).
Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.
It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.
The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.
Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.
Here’s an interesting – and very detailed – breakdown of transport usage for Melbourne –
https://chartingtransport.com/
One of the concepts it challenges is the idea that everyone wants to get to the inner city to work. It appears that if you work in the CBD you tend to live in an inner suburb (and drive!) whereas if you live in an outer suburb, you tend to work in an outer suburb – however, not necessarily the same one.
So, for example, Dandenong is the second highest commuter destination after Melbourne. It draws its workforce from places like Cranbourne. Nearly all these journeys – 97% – are by car, one can assume because there simply isn’t the public transport infrastructure to cater for them.
There’s a lot of interesting data on this site, and I’m only just glancing through it, so I expect I’ve misunderstood some of the above!
So, the Greens/Coalition Adani wedge worked.
And the dividend imputation cuts gained no votes and cut some votes.
The Hard Left’s, Corbyn’s and British Labour’s problems with anti-semitism deepen:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/940102/Jeremy-Corbyn-Labour-anti-semitism-row-police-investigation-hate-crime-abuse
This time Corbyn will not be able to sweep the anti-semitism under the political carpet.
The LibGreen duopoly strikes again.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This is all I can come up with today.
Smith and Warner are assembling powerful legal teams.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/push-for-smith-and-warner-bans-from-domestic-cricket-to-be-eased-20180401-p4z7bs.html
The Washington Post has a long examination of the unhinged presidency.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-president-unhinged-with-white-house-stabilisers-gone-trump-is-calling-his-own-shots-20180401-p4z7cc.html
Adam Crichton writes about Ken Henry slamming the emerging bidding war between the Turnbull government and Labor to cut taxes as “theatrically absurd’’. Google.
/national-affairs/ken-henry-says-spending-surge-makes-talk-of-tax-cuts-absurd/news-story/540e59037258e73786a6802cd0564f67
Paul Budde asks, “Is there a business case for the National Broadband Network?´
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/paul-budde-is-there-a-business-case-for-the-national-broadband-network/
The other reason why millions are turning away from the digital world.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/the-other-reason-why-millions-are-turning-away-from-the-digital-world-20180328-p4z6pa.html
Hmm. Tom Switzer reckons Canberra could do better with more like Peter Reith.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/canberra-needs-more-people-like-peter-reith-20180401-p4z79k.html
A group of humanist societies has demanded that the Australian Human Rights Commission review the $60m-a-year school chaplains program, claiming it harms freedom of religion.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/01/secular-groups-call-for-review-of-blatantly-discriminatory-school-chaplains-program
Urban Wronski uses the “It’s not cricket” phrase to look at contemporary politics.
https://urbanwronski.com/2018/04/02/its-just-not-cricket/
Peter Hannam on the saga of the NSW government and the proposed Liverpool Plains Chenhua coal mine.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/surrounded-by-secrecy-government-undecided-on-shenhua-coal-mine-20180324-p4z63g.html
A new teaching method, where explanations of a subject are delivered online at home and the usual homework becomes classwork, could be piloted in NSW high schools within two years. It’s called “flip learning”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/flipping-teaching-on-its-head-20180327-p4z6gr.html
Alcohol and illicit drugs are to blame for one in every 20 deaths in Australia, according to new analysis by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/australias-drug-and-alcohol-problem-revealed-in-new-aihw-report-but-act-healthiest-20180331-h0y76m.html
Cartoon Corner
Paul Zanetti finds Steven Smith.
Roy Taylor and a daylight saving reminder.
Mark Knight looks to the heavens for advice on the cricket problem.
And he looks at the trajectory of the tampered-with cricket ball.
zoomster
Fascinating maps, but as you say, needs study.
BW, this is is so transparently a cynical, coordinated smear campaign by the Murdoch press against Corbyn. They’ve spent so long failing to make anything stick on him, but now they reckon they’ve finally on to a winner: the old trusty anti-semitic card, and knowing they’ll have the full force of the powerful Israeli lobbies behind them.
But really, facebook posts?? This is the “dirt” they have? give me a break. Tell you what, how about we do “undercover research” of tori voter’s social media habits. I can almost guarantee there’ll be at least as much vile Islamophobic rubbish going around. I reckon I could find at least one “f*** off muslims” on a tori site. Probably on a labour site for that matter. Of course you can find a “racist problem” in literally any party you care to investigate.
Its just so transparently cynical this witch hunt.
I can’t read the article, but as Reith was aggressively anti-union and a typical Lib deceiver, I suppose I can guess at the content.
lizzie
There is one dog we don’t see much of in Canberra, and that is Rottweilers. Switzer can keep Reith and his vicious Rotties. We don’t want them.
A real NBN or a Turnbull Fraudband one ?
Big A Adrian
It is reasonable to consider whether or not the British Labour Party, the Far Left (in the UK and globally) and Corbyn have issues with anti-semitism.
Your views are that (1) it is being used as a smear campaign and that therefore there is no anti-semitism and (2) that there is in any case worse stuff elsewhere. (2) tacitly accepts that there IS anti-semitism, BTW.
In relation to your main point, IMO it is possible for there to be considerable anti-semitism AND for this to be used to smear British Labour and Corbyn.
So, what is the evidence?
1. Around three dozen British Labour MPs are sufficiently concerned about anti-semitism inside the Labour Party to call it out.
2. Corbyn’s response to the blatantly anti-semitic Mear mural.
3. Several senior Labour Party people who are currently suspended for anti-semitic comments of one sort or another.
4. A series of public apologies for anti-semitic comments, including by Corbyn himself.
5. Around 50 documented cases in which anti-semitic slurs were used in public Labour Party meetings, Labor branch and Party Room meetings and the like.
6. Extensive use of anti-semitic slurs and commentary in social media sites in particular those most heavily engaged with the Far Left and those that most heavily support Corbyn.
7. Normally publicly reticent national Jewish organisations going public with both evidence of, and criticism of, anti-semitic comments by British Labour Party members. They do not want the next British Government and the next British Prime Minister to be anti-semitic. They have a point.
8. Routine weak criticisms of anti-semitism by Corbyn and others. Why does Corbyn make these criticisms if HE doesn’t think that anti-semitism exists in the British Labour Party
All this goes far beyond casual or occasional racism. It paints an overwhelming picture of systematic anti-semitism in the Far Left of the British Labour Party. It also demonstrates beyond doubt that Corbyn himself has engaged in anti-semitic behaviour. Finally, it demonstrates that Corbyn is aware of a problem but is refusing to do anything effective about it.
Defending all this as a ‘smear’ by the Murdoch MSM is the easy way out, IMO.
p
Of course there is a business case for the NBN. Remember that the Coalition routinely criticised Rudd and Gillard for not having a business case for the NBN.
I am sure that as soon as the Coalition formed Government and started wasting tens of billions on the NBN it had a business case done for it.
It is probably sitting in Turnbull’s bottom drawer, next to his empty leather jacket.
William
I really struggle to see how the ALP can pick up 8 seats in Qld
Three I can see easily – Capricornia, Forde and Petrie (although Capricornia being NQ is unpredictable)
Bonner and Flynn come next but for various reasons I am not super confident – especially of Flynn.
Then there is the last trio
Bowman – possible but a big ask,
Dawson – NO Qld likes an odd boy so i reckon Georgie Porgie will hang on
Dickson – removal of our fascist friend is dear to my heart, but he is high profile and has large sections of the electorate which while formerly ALP have swung to ON and then the the fascist.
I do not see a shift in Brisbane, (apparently Trevor Evans is very well liked and has secured the gay vote which is very large in this electorate), Fairfax or Leichardt. Now Ryan might be interesting if they force out Jane Prentice. However it could well go Green, given it includes Maiwar and also most of Cooper which stays Labor because of the popularity of Kate Jones but has a solid Green vote.
There is also the risk for the ALP of losing Longman and herbert and even Lilley after Swan goes.
I think realistically Labor will gain 4 in Qld. It is still good but not 8.
I will give Labor three in NSW or even 4 -5 – it depends on those coastal seats and the sea changers.
Victoria my guess is picking up three of the four possibles
WA Pearce and Swan but not Canning or Hasluck.
So net gain 11 seats, which is plenty for a comfortable majority.
lizzie
Yes, Switzer is swooning over the memories of union smashing Reith . What a shame Switzer did not have time for these ‘happy memories’ of Reith.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/oct/30/worlddispatch.patrickbarkham
RE: Business case for the NBN…when they put a state of the art water pipe to your house, was there a business case? When they put a large diameter sewer pipe to your house, was there a business case? When they put a thick lethal electricity wire to your house, was there a business case? When they put a phone cable to your house, business case?
When they want to put a state of the art, microscopic fibre cable to your house, suddenly WHERE”S THE BUSINESS CASE!
Torchbearer
The Mad Monk has had such an evil influence on so many aspects of life here. Turnbull could have been the deep cleanser but has failed us. It’s a bloody tragedy.
Boerwar @ #2 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 6:51 am
Yep. That latest Reachtel 54-46 was a shocker! Could have been so much more! :\
Further to my link on education this morning take the time to watch an Eddie Woo maths class. He is an inspiring teacher.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2z5uzqxJNU
Boer
‘So, the Greens/Coalition Adani wedge worked.
And the dividend imputation cuts gained no votes and cut some votes.’
Can’t draw that conclusion from the data.
BW, I dont doubt there is an “ant semitic problem” in UK labour, in the same sense that there is no doubt an “islamophobic problem” in the tories. And by that i mean, whatever “racist problem” you wish to find in any political organisation, you are bound to find it. Racism of all types, including anti semitism is endemic in society , so of course you will find it wherever you look. And of course its not wrong to go after it, but lets be consistent. And i suspect the levels of islamophobia in the tories and most other right wing political organizations are far worse.
And yes, I’ll add the commonly noted observation that probably half the alleged ‘anti semitism’ has been anti Israel, not anti jewish.
Chinese Satellite TIANGONG 1 Live tracking
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z23S_6TVTU
C
Yep. The backwards movements were in the Queensland Adani seats and in the demographic most impacted by the dividend imputation credits. Not surprising at all.
The dividend imputation credit is a decision among a suite of decisions which will be a fundamental recast of the Australian Federal Budget that Labour will take to the next election.
Getting the bad news out early is a tactical/strategic decision by Shorten and his team.
The Adani wedge was played for all it is worth by the Greens in Batman. Remember the 7.30 interview by Sales and Cousins? William’s analysis is that Adani WAS important in the Batman by-election.
The irony? The Greens will not make a difference on Adani. And the only Party that will – Labour, is being actively damaged by the Greens.
The real on-ground outcome for Adani? More likely to happen as a direct result of Greens’ politicing.
Year 35.
Hmm. More Liberals like Peter Reith, eh? The vicious Anti Unionist who co-opted a vain Union leader to betray her members and her values and join with him in trying to destroy the good name of Unionism generally in Australia. Whilst at one and the same time being guilty of doing exactly the same things that she loudly and longly accused others of doing.
So Tom Switzer would like more politicians like that in the Liberal Party!?!
Bring it on!
Because the electorate doesn’t.
Good Morning
BW
I am under no illusions of the barbarity of the Assad Regime. Or the fact the fight is not over.
The reality is however the US cannot win. They lost. Time to cut losses.
I used the word cruel about the Assad regime deliberately.
There is hypocrisy here with the US UK backing Saudi Arabia. They do chop off heads.
As I said not having the No Fly Zone was where the US lost Syria. They showed they were not serious about being there. Russia and Assad got the message.
I am no fan of war. However that was where the US failed. They did not use the same seriousness about actual WMD that they did about fictional WMD in Iraq.
As for loss for democracy thats a given Putin is winning he has his puppet in the White House. However in Syria the US had already lost.
Again the mission changed. It was supposed to be about Assad and his WMD use but then became about ISIS.
This is why I think the US pulling out is the correct policy. Its called cutting your losses. No winners here.
Big A Adrian says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 8:08 am
‘BW, I dont doubt there is an “ant semitic problem” in UK labour, …’
OK.
So, a reasonable standard is that is no possible excuse for any anti-semitism at the highest level (let alone among ordinary members) of the British Labour Party.
1. Should Corbyn resign for his acti-semitic behaviour to demonstrate that anti-semitism is totally unacceptable?
2. Should British Labour Party members who have actively demonstrated their anti-semitism be expelled permanently? After all, if Corbyn can sack Owen for not toeing the Party line, then anyone who engages in anti-semitic behaviour is not toeing the Party line either.
3. Is the currently accepted routine and anodyne apology for anti-semitic behaviour an adequate response by Corbyn and by the British Labour Party?
4. What are the minimum internal steps the British Labour Party should take to clean up its anti-semitic act?
Morning all. Thanks BK for today’s reading and viewing, esp the video of Eddie Woo. If only my high school maths teachers were that interesting maybe I wouldn’t have found the subject so boring.
g
There are many possible ways of looking at the US and Australian withdrawal from Syria.
One is that it is a huge and deliberate betrayal by the West of its one true ally: the Kurds.
guytaur
A No Fly Zone =- Head Choppers Win. Syrian army was going down until the Russians arrived. Well before the Russians arrived US top brass testified the so called moderates were ‘ineffective’ and ‘sidelined’ .
The salafist lot were the ones fighting and winning. Can you imagine what would have happened if they had taken control of the state of Syria ? The arms and money that would have come under their control ? The humanitarian disaster that would have ensued ?
Reith nicely summarised.
@DTD – 7:37am
Although my analysis of the seat by seat breakdown of what is likely differs to a degree (I have Labor as picking up Hasluck for example) I end up close to what you predicting on a state by state breakdown. I reckon 83 Labor seats is the most likely outcome given the present political climate (which of course could all change between now and the election).
Boerwar
What right does Australia have to be bombing Syria any way ?
The problem with the Liberal party is there are too many members the likes of Peter Reith!
BW
You mean a continuation of the betrayal of the West as soon as Turkey demanded it. Despite the fact Turkey has a dictator now.
The Kurds are the biggest losers aside from the population of Syria themselves.
My point remains there is no winning anything by the West remaining in Syria. The regime will be cruel and barbaric but the West failed to be serious when it had the upper hand and has been in retreat ever since.
The strategies in the Pentagon should have seen Russia entering when their base was threatened and remained serious about being there. Russia would have accepted that the price of protecting their base was too high.
As soon as the US dithered and did not do the No Fly Zone it was over. Thats the sad reality.
guytaur @ #24 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 8:18 am
Guytaur
By the time that the no fly zone was seriously talked about by Hillary in her campaign it was already too late. The Russians had their planes there and it had become too risky.
The question I suppose is whether the USA could have imposed one back in 2012, but that was still in the “spring mode” when it was all supposed to be peaceful democratic people power.
I think even in 2012 it would have been quite a challenge because Syria did have an airforce and the backing of Russia, so imposing a no-fly zone via use of NATO air forces would have resulted in quite a few losses. Moreover that was the period of the Iran deal and attacking Syria (which is what a no-fly zone is) would have put the kybosh on that deal.
‘poroti says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 8:28 am
Boerwar
What right does Australia have to be bombing Syria any way ?’
Well, come to think of it…
My point is that once Australia invaded Iraq and Syria, and actively encouraged and made use of the Kurds, it accepted accountability for the fate of its closest ally.
Only a national toe rag would leave its mates to their horrible fates.
“The long road from Bradman’s moral lesson to Bancroft’s ball tampering”
Good article on the cricket over at the ABC news online. All taken from Caught Out, an ABC documentary into the ball-tampering scandal airing tonight at 7.30pm.
Will the PM give the Victorian Liberals a good talking to.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/liberals-good-friday-stunt-a-double-insult-20180401-p4z7bc.html
g
Your point is that you are an appeaser to the motley assorted of theocratic thugs who are going to massacre the Kurds, ethnically cleanse the Kurds, oppose Kurdish democracy, and suppress the Kurdish nation.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #30 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 8:28 am
Andrew
My main reason for not including Hasluck is the basic popularity of ken Wyatt. He seems to me to be the sort of candidate that bucks the trend.
Poroti
Thats the argument that the US should not have entered Syria in the first place.
My point is if you are going to be serious about WMD and invade a country because of it. Be serious.
The US was not. For a simple reason they did not want a repeat of Iraq. The price of the fiction of WMD in Iraq is now we have a state using WMD winning.
Obama was a good President. However from the start he was hamstrung over Syria precisely because the neo cons had stuffed so badly in Iraq. The backing of the US domestic population for a serious response was gone. Especially after the Libya disaster.
Obama only entered Syria due to the WMD. He had no choice. Going in he had to go as full on as Iraq. That was the intention complete with toppling Assad. We would have the mess in Syria that we have had with Iraq.
At least Obama was dealing with real WMD
Boerwar,
It is true that we are just beginning the Tax Reform discussion that we need to have. Interestingly, the Neoliberals at The Australian and elsewhere appear to have co-opted Ken Henry and the Henry Review to lead their charge into battle. Whereas it was anathema when Labor were in power federally and brought it forward. Plus ca change, I guess.
I think the point I was trying to make about the 54-46 was, that although there may be detectable chagrin among the voters that the Dividend Imputation Cash Back decision affects the most, generally it has been approved of by the wider electorate. I would hazard a guess that it will generally politically advantage Labor in Regional marginal seats, such as in SA, but also in the other States, where the cohort of voters skews towards young families who don’t see the benefit of the policy at all!
Interestingly, it was reported today by the AFR, I think it was, that Turnbull’s re-election strategy is going to concentrate on the Baby Boomers to get him back. Now, yes, they are one of the largest cohorts of the electorate, if not the largest, but I don’t think they are as uniform a voting bloc as Turnbull might hope. From my experience, a lot who have children are tending to see things through their eyes and vote accordingly. That is, a lot are selfless, not selfish voters.
As far as Adani goes, it is true that the push is on for it, by the company and the government. Especially as far as the Coalition and The Greens wishing to use it to wedge Labor. I imagine that much war-gaming thought is being put into how to square that circle by federal Labor.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/04/01/this-trump-legal-defeat-may-force-trump-to-decide-his-presidency-or-his-businesses/?utm_term=.f5122a9275da
Please choose your businesses and leave government to people who actually know what they’re doing.
Ball tamperer was Australian Cricket’s Mother of ALL Black Swan Events.
What Black Swan events might occur to derail Labour over the next 14 months?
BW
Nope. Thats the West backing Turkey instead of the Kurds and helping them establish an independent Homeland in Iraq.
I am just pointing out the reality. I am not excusing it. In strategic terms the US has lost Syria and needs to cut its losses.
poroti says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 8:28 am
Boerwar
What right does Australia have to be bombing Syria any way ?
The same reason all nations go to war – because they can.
Ms Jewellery Clotheshorse stays at the Trump-mandated Trump Hotel in NY.
Maybe she will be subpoened by the Maryland authorities to give evidence?
g
Your total indifference to the fate of our main ME ally is noted.
BW
Your total hypocrisy on the Kurds is noted
Boerwar @ #47 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 6:39 am
Wouldn’t that be hilarious!