The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).
Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.
It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.
The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.
Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.
Confessions @ #2692 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
Went backward in SA too.
lizzie @ #2669 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:43 pm
Nearly a cats’ bum
That pic of Mal is a classic Stan Laurel
KJ:
May the Good Lord bless you and maintain your supply of Choccy Frogs.
Thank you, you are a scholar and a gentleman.
So far the chockie frogs have stood up to repeated depredations by students, and requests for same.
May it continue!
When I was a regular teacher with a full time job, (I now tutor individual students on a part time basis), students got a chockie frog for telling me something I didn’t know, for making me laugh, (not usually jokes, just clever comebacks to something I said, irreverent or no) and for noticing that I had a new tie, as well as the obligatory chockie frog for first, second and third in any test.
But sometimes I handed them out for no good reason. Random rewards are often better than rewards for known reasons.
Keep ’em guessing, and leave ’em laughing when you go is my motto.
Tony!
“Liberal – Green, same, same.”
No. The Greens don’t want to dismantle Medicare, privatise the provision of health and education services, sell off what little remains in public ownership to mates, give $65 billion to the big end of town (most of it going overseas), trash the environment for profit, ignore climate change, exploit asylum seekers and play the race card for political gain or attack welfare recipients.
There is a difference. Let’s be real.
Seth
You’re referring to this one released today? That’s the second poll recently. Maybe they’re trying to re-enter the polling market.
Don
You clearly had a bit of personality on display in the classroom. The unsuccessful teachers I observed had either had a personality bypass, were psychopaths or just plain nuts.
Fortunately, most I experienced had a personality.
Morgan
Lib primary down 1.5%
Labor up 2%
And no change
I think Mal might be paying for them
@samdastyari
5h5 hours ago
More
They just created a new electorate called ‘Bean’ in the ACT. I’m being trolled by the electoral commission. #auspol
don (Block)
Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:19 pm
Comment #2646
🐸🐸🐸👍👍👍
Mari says:
Friday, April 6, 2018 at 5:53 pm
Noticed talk on cataracts, I had always 20:20 vision . About 10 years ago had a detached retina , happened on a Saturday of a long weekend, while.away at a birthday party
Pro tip:
While this is of no use to anybody, not even me, I guess, trust me, don’t ever get sick in Armidale between Christmas Eve and the end of the first week in January.
There is nobody – I mean nobody – with medical training that can help you, short of a rush trip to Sydney or Brisbane. Even then, I suspect you are pushing your luck.
That was my experience when my left eye got a clot in the supply to the retina on Boxing Day.
The local specialist was on holiday in Greece or somewhere.
And it was pretty obvious to me that what had happened was not going to unhappen, so a rush air trip to Sydney was not going to do me any good.
There were not even any common or garden variety optometrists available until the end of the first week in January.
Confessions @ #2689 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
Yeah I reckon #Greenspill is much more likely than #Libspill.
I had, a few minutes ago, another case of being logged out and post disappeared into a black hole.
Dammit. Does anybody know why this is now happening ❓
As a resident of the Bean electorate, it seems I will have to become resigned to Bean jokes for a while!
KayJay @ #2707 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:35 pm
No, but it keeps damn well happening! Without rhyme or reason! I don’t really want to have to Copy every one of my posts before posting either!
😡
citizen @ #2708 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:37 pm
Better than Cox jokes.
I reckon they should have named an electorate after May Gibbs, not May Cox!
citizen
That’s it. Some of the state figures look a little funny to me, for one I don’t get how Federal Labor could be that far behind in SA.
lizzie says:
Friday, April 6, 2018 at 5:55 pm
William
might cause young children or their older mental equivalents to snigger.
Quite so. My name is Don Hitchcock.
Trust me, I have heard every possible variation on that theme.
Itchy cock, how’s your cock, on and on and on.
I learned to laugh and agree with them, and add my own variations. They got tired of it before I did.
You grow up quickly on the boy’s playground at Mt Gravatt Primary School.
And that is where the variations on the seat of Cox should remain.
Cox and cock means son of. Hitchcock means Richardson, since ‘Hitch’ used to be a diminutive of Richard.
It is primary school humour, and should remain there.
Of course it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t remain there, it just redounds on the person who thinks it is funny, and tells you what their intellectual level is, if you hadn’t already guessed.
Great news! Another public intellectual may join Labor’s ranks after the next election!
ACT Labor sources believe the Greens are overly-optimistic about their chances, and expect a third Labor MP to join Andrew Leigh and Gai Brodtmann in the lower house, with speculation St Vincent de Paul Society chief executive John Falzon will put his hand up for the backing of Labor Left.
Re the non appearance of posts, that happened to me a few days ago. William posted that two others and myself had been sent to the spam sin-bin but that he had fixed the problem. I’ve never been logged out that I remember.
Does Cox border Batman? Maybe they should have renamed it Robin.
Re a Labor candidate for the third ACT seat, there was talk that Katy Gallagher could be nominated should she be booted from the Senate under s.44
I have to say I’ve never thought about electorate names until today’s almost unhinged comments from some PBers upset they now live in the Division of Cox, Bean etc. It’s a freakin electorate name, not the name of your firstborn child for goodness sakes! In another 20 or 30 years it might be named something different.
I live in an electorate named after a famous WA engineer who enabled drinking water to be piped to the desert via the Goldfields Pipeline. This doesn’t define me or embarrass me or whatever. It’s just the name of the electorate where I happen to now live.
citizen
If only you could get Dastyari to stand as your MP 🙂
C@t:
I note from media reporting that Labor’s preselections in the ACT are on hold pending an outcome of Gallagher’s High Court case.
I reckon Falzon would be a worthy candidate for the party room though, and hope he is able to run at the next election in the new seat.
Don
Good on you
Back in the 1960s we had here in WA a footballer named Mycock. Yep. and pretty good player he was too, playing in a premiership at Claremont in 1964. He and few others were farm boys and back in those days they were able to stay home and work and the club chartered a plane to flown them to Perth on Saturdays for games
We also have here a public schools football competition named the Alcock Cup. But as in Cockburn Sound, which is Co-burn sound, the c and k were silent so it was announced as the Alco Cup.
The story goes local ABC sports broadcasters could not cope with a block named Mycock so took to calling him Myco. He is said to have contacted the ABC and put them right.
citizen @ #2719 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 4:49 pm
Socrates made a good point this morning about how long the HC is taking to hand down the Gallagher ruling.
It’s been nearly 4 weeks since the hearing and whether the delay was an indication that they may be going to rule in her favour and that the new ruling is the cause of the delay.
Here’s hoping! 🙂
Rossmcg:
The story goes local ABC sports broadcasters could not cope with a block named Mycock so took to calling him Myco. He is said to have contacted the ABC and put them right.
I suspect it goes back to the Domesday book from 1086, when everybody had to have two names because William the Conqueror wanted to know what taxes needed to be paid, by whom, who occupied land, and its value.
I presume they’d write down, for example, Jon (or John) and ask who his child was, and he would reply ‘My son’ so Mycock was written down.
Just like ‘Hitchcock’ for Hitch’s son.
I presume there are scholars here who could give a better explanation, but that is my understanding.
Don
It also is interesting that the Dave Warner incident in South Africa a few weeks ago is said to have been sparked by his persistent sledging of Quinton de Kock in relation to his name.
Really … grown up people sniggering over a name.
Speaker: I remind the Member for Co that props are not allowed in the chamber.
rossmcg @ #2725 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 8:13 pm
I think it goes deeper than that. Once a name, any name, gets established as a derogative it doesn’t matter what its original meaning might have been. It’s the continuing jibe that hurts. The intent behind the word matters. (I have a personal example. My skin colour is “Mediterranean”. At school I was bullied with the name “prune”. Go figure. I expect de Kock felt the same.)
South Australia: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%
Did Morgan miss their release date for the poll. Shouldn’t it have been April 1st
Sceptic
Probably a sample of 88!
Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #2666 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:37 pm
If your ambition is to stretch cheap coal out for as long as you possibly can, then yes, clearly.
Otherwise, not so much.
Funny how, as newspoll 30 approaches the libs leak internal polling that shows the split is 52 – 48 and Morgan comes riding over the hill to the rescue.
We had the Cox thing when West Coast had ruckman Dean Cox on their list.
The commentators invariably referred to him as big Cox.
You could almost hear the sniggering.
Grown men.
I bet William won’t be including Morgan in his prognostications … no rationale for 2PP
I went to school with the Ramsbottom lads. Sons of a sheep farmer.
One of my sons got bullied for being a redhead.
L-NP holds a two-party preferred lead in South Australia: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%?
Joke. ALP ahead.
Morgan must have polled Pyne’s family. 59-41 to the LNP in SA is rubbish.
Seriously though, two things should be remembered. 1-it’s Morgan and therefore should not be taken seriously, and 2-the state samples, particularly in the smaller states would be rather small and therefore are best ignored.
Puffytmd @ #2734 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 8:42 pm
I went, for a couple of my younger years, to a very small rural school where there were two large families that were closely related. The family names were Case and Bottles! I kid you not!
Tom
If the Morgan poll has a sample size of about 2,000, the SA component would be about 140, for which the margin of error would be about 8.5%. I wouldn’t give it much attention. If the sample size were about 1,000, the 70-odd South Australians on their own would be too small a sample to give a meaningful state-level result.
So…..
Newspoll 30 imminent,
AGL tell Turnbull to get nicked, naff off, and dont tel us what to do with our assets,
Abbott and the Monkey Pod mob do a bad taste re-branding,
The Libs lose out big time on that latest AEC re-distribution,
And resort to trotting out that mongrel Howard…………..
Basically all the signs and omens are that they are in serious manure, know they are, but have no idea what to do about it. The dogs above are good to us for a while. 🙂
There was a family of Sidebottoms prominent in WA football (and later the VFL) from the early 60s on.
And of course Steele Sidebottom is going around for Collingwood as I type.
My dad used to tell me when I was a child for a joke that the name was pronounced Sidee-bott-om.
Confessions @ #2720 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:51 pm
An embarrassment of riches. 🙂
One of the main family names on our family tree is Worboys. I think that’s how they spelled War back in the Olde England days. I was actually told yesterday by my mum that one of our family has traced one of the Worboys back to the ship William the Conquerer sailed over to England on! I guess you could say we’ve always been up for a battle. 🙂
rossmcg,
More than once, there was a banner in the Eagles’ crowd saying “We love Big Cox”.
Van Badham goes looking for the Government’s Best and Brightest! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/what-can-the-liberal-party-do-about-its-talent-problem