Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research yet again records a solid lead for Labor on two-party preferred, but finds Malcolm Turnbull moving clear as preferred Liberal leader.

The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.

A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).

Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,361 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. It is unseemly for a former Prime Minister to carry on in the way Rudd does. It diminishes him.

    If he’s got all those wonderful jobs to do, surely his time would be better spend doing them, and reaping more fame and glory from his successes in his new fields.

    He could even write letters about how wonderfully well he’s doing.

    He left the office of PM with dignity. It’s not anyone else’s fault he no longer has even that.

  2. This.

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    20m20 minutes ago
    Also says “there’s a really high standard for a raid on a lawyer’s office. Not just the president’s lawyer – any lawyer. Either they proved that he was so uncooperative they couldn’t get the information from subpoena or they had proof there was destruction of evidence.”

  3. Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    19m19 minutes ago
    Source says US Attorney would have had to have received sign-off for raid from head of criminal division of DOJ and perhaps DAG Rosenstein as well.

    I wonder if the president knew?

  4. Barney IDG

    My interest in this imbroglio doesn’t have to extend to everyone on this blog. It is of no concern to me whether you find it funny or not.

    I interact with those who are interested, and for everyone else, they can scroll on by

  5. Shorten: “I think what the #ATO whistleblower has revealed is scandalous and we will be pursuing it with some ferocity in Parliament.” #auspol #4Corners

  6. Barney in Go Dau @ #91 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    bemused @ #87 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:07 am

    I would be equally relaxed if Gillard did any of these things, as she is perfectly entitled to do. Opinions of former leaders are always interesting, agree or disagree.

    Yes, but those opinions are not normally about themselves, unless they are responding to a direct question! 🙂

    Rudd was prompted by Tunbulls big ’30’. Included some context.

  7. jenauthor @ #94 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:21 am

    You really don’t get it Bemused.

    Rudd is inward and backward-looking.

    His view is arguably wrong, or at the very least is self-serving.

    He should look forward and concentrate on what benefits both country and himself. But no, he, like you, still argues over the past.

    In both cases, you are focussing just on what you don’t like and ignoring the many comments on other topics.
    Very selective reading.

  8. On the RGR wars

    Its over water under the bridge. Not in the news today.

    No matter how much some may hate Rudd he did do something which I admire for the party and that was change the leadership rules.

    So now even a tweet from Rudd about past divisions in the Labor party floats by without the media asking one question about it to Mr Shorten.

    The Canberra Press Gallery is finally getting the message of the Newspoll results.
    Labor is a united team presenting a compelling case for being the next government.

  9. daretotread. @ #100 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:29 am


    Moreover because of hostility here he really cannot get a job in Australia and I imagine trump’s USA or May’s UK would not be happy places for any ALP Labor type.

    So you believe Confessions nonsense?
    Rudd’s post politics career is well documented in Wikipedia and was posted a couple of times last night.
    It is extensive.

  10. bemused @ #109 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #91 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    bemused @ #87 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:07 am

    I would be equally relaxed if Gillard did any of these things, as she is perfectly entitled to do. Opinions of former leaders are always interesting, agree or disagree.

    Yes, but those opinions are not normally about themselves, unless they are responding to a direct question! 🙂

    Rudd was prompted by Tunbulls big ’30’. Included some context.

    But no one prompted Rudd directly, he chose to become involved and in a way that made it about himself. 🙂

  11. bemused @ #115 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:48 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #102 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:30 am

    Victoria @ #97 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:28 am

    Barney IDG

    Don’t know how many times I have to say it. Scroll. On by

    Why ?

    There’s a laugh a minute! 🙂

    Better to apply the scroll wheel to all the rubbish from Victoria and Confessions.

    There is an educational element on the layers of the US legal and Government systems. 🙂

  12. Barney in Go Dau @ #113 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:47 am

    bemused @ #109 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #91 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    bemused @ #87 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:07 am

    I would be equally relaxed if Gillard did any of these things, as she is perfectly entitled to do. Opinions of former leaders are always interesting, agree or disagree.

    Yes, but those opinions are not normally about themselves, unless they are responding to a direct question! 🙂

    Rudd was prompted by Tunbulls big ’30’. Included some context.

    But no one prompted Rudd directly, he chose to become involved and in a way that made it about himself. 🙂

    So who invites you to post here? Or your twitter account if you have one?

    Rudd loathes Turnbull. That was sufficient to prompt him.

  13. DTT

    As of course are you and all the Gillard supporters
    Now I am still a strong Rudd supporter, but probably agree that the letter was unhelpful, although I am not sure what triggered it.

    _____________________________________

    Actually, we “Gillard supporters” would rather not discuss it at all.

    The fact is that almost all, if not all, of us here who indulge in the RGR 100 years war strongly want a Shorten Labor Government as soon as possible. The second fact is that nobody has changed their views on who was the bad guy or gal for the last five years at least and no endless repetition of strongly held opinions are going to change those views now.

    So, with Trumble on the ropes and down for the count (30 Newspolls already) the last thing us Shorten Labor supporters want is an opportunity provided to the Trumble adoring media to divert attention away from the catastrophic government that is destroying Australia’s future right now.

    We would welcome with glee any former coalition leader who bags Turnbull (thank you Barnaby) even if we despise the bagger (Barnaby again). So why should a former Labor Prime Minister have carte blanche to make adverse comments about the current Labor Opposition leader when we all know that no good could come of it?

    As for Julia Gillard, I fully expect that she will not respond to Rudd’s provocative letter based on my assessment of her character and her conduct since losing office in 2013 (the highly regrettable Sarah Ferguson doco aside). If she does, I will be severely disappointed in her and make no excuses.

  14. Barney in Go Dau @ #117 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:50 am

    bemused @ #115 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:48 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #102 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:30 am

    Victoria @ #97 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 7:28 am

    Barney IDG

    Don’t know how many times I have to say it. Scroll. On by

    Why ?

    There’s a laugh a minute! 🙂

    Better to apply the scroll wheel to all the rubbish from Victoria and Confessions.

    There is an educational element on the layers of the US legal and Government systems. 🙂

    Ummm, I suggest you take your education from people who know what they are talking about.

  15. zoomster @ #101 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 8:30 am

    It is unseemly for a former Prime Minister to carry on in the way Rudd does. It diminishes him.

    Exactly. Witness the difference between Rudd and Gough Whitlam, a far greater man than Rudd will ever be.

    Gough had a very real reason to have been bitter about the very real injustice inflicted on him. Did he spend his post-political career continually bemoaning what happened to him? No, although he had every reason to do so. In his later life he even became friends with, or at least friendly towards, the benefactor of the injustices perpetrated on him.

    To be sure we can all be grateful to Rudd and his team for saving us from the GFC, but, to put things in perspective, we can also thank John Howard for saving us from any US style gun massacres after Port Arthur. Hell, even Hitler was responsible for what is still the most efficient road system in the world, and Mussolini made the trains run on time. Despite all of these great acts, these men are remembered for the damage, not the good, they did.

  16. Zoomster, or something like this to convert a photo into jpeg format:

    https://image.online-convert.com/convert-to-jpg

    Looks easy to follow.

    Once you have the image in jpeg format ( http://blahblahpuppydogpic.jpeg ) copy and paste the url into the comment section here and it should on submission come out as the photo.

    (I haven’t used it; I use blogger)

    Like this:

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qxVXUw7kbgk/WshSmpGBUPI/AAAAAAAAGlA/2v0vlUQiqaI11YXgqCo0ZtJkLAKC0o6AgCLcBGAs/s400/fullsizeoutput_3244.jpeg

  17. Guytaur

    So now even a tweet from Rudd about past divisions in the Labor party floats by without the media asking one question about it to Mr Shorten.

    ________________________________

    In fact they did. And Shorten responded by repeating his statement that Labor had learnt from its mistakes. End of story. Nowhere to go.

  18. The Labor Party is poised to go to the next Federal election with policies that will lock in larger budget surpluses and lower government debt than the Coalition.

    The Coalition is actually loosening fiscal policy with company tax cuts and a likely pre-election agenda to reduce personal income tax rates, both funded by bracket creep and higher than expected prices for iron ore and coal. Labor, conversely, are planning to lift government revenue with its proposals on superannuation dividend imputation, negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.

    Also read: Here’s why AU needs to trim immigration levels

    The economic policy hard heads in Labor will ensure its spending commitments are lower than the combined effect of these revenue measures. This will mean Labor can campaign on more prudent fiscal policy than the government when all its policies are rolled out in the lead into the next election.

    While there are few specifics on the spending side of the ledger, Labor is likely to use its financial war chest of extra revenue to outline the maintenance of the role of government in the provision of education, health, aged care and disability services.

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/labor-party-poised-next-federal-election-235227254.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

  19. TPOF @ #119 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:52 am

    DTT

    As of course are you and all the Gillard supporters
    Now I am still a strong Rudd supporter, but probably agree that the letter was unhelpful, although I am not sure what triggered it.

    _____________________________________

    Actually, we “Gillard supporters” would rather not discuss it at all.

    Then why are there screams from the cultists every time Kev is mentioned in the media?

  20. For the sake of all those who no longer give a shit about who is right and who is wrong in the RGR wars (it’s all been raked over a million times before), can those involved please stop trying to have the last word all the time and just let the bloody thing go. No-one is going to change anyone else’s mind on the subject, we know that, so why persist?

    The only way I can make any sense of it is that some of the combatants must find the argy bargy cathartic in some way. The hurt they felt at the time has never properly healed and they find some solace in venting their anger here every time the matter comes up. But for the rest of us who have managed to move on from those stressful times it does get a bit tedious hearing it all over and over again.

  21. Dan Gulberry @ #121 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:54 am

    zoomster @ #101 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 8:30 am

    It is unseemly for a former Prime Minister to carry on in the way Rudd does. It diminishes him.

    Exactly. Witness the difference between Rudd and Gough Whitlam, a far greater man than Rudd will ever be.

    Gough had a very real reason to have been bitter about the very real injustice inflicted on him. Did he spend his post-political career continually bemoaning what happened to him? No, although he had every reason to do so. In his later life he even became friends with, or at least friendly towards, the benefactor of the injustices perpetrated on him.

    To be sure we can all be grateful to Rudd and his team for saving us from the GFC, but, to put things in perspective, we can also thank John Howard for saving us from any US style gun massacres after Port Arthur. Hell, even Hitler was responsible for what is still the most efficient road system in the world, and Mussolini made the trains run on time. Despite all of these great acts, these men are remembered for the damage, not the good, they did.

    Whitlam was struck down by his opponents.
    Rudd was struck down by treachery on his own side.
    Spot the difference?

  22. Darn

    It was an excellent presser from Mr Shorten.

    Very Prime Ministerial including lets talk about his project before we move onto other subjects.

    Very clever and Mr Shorten hitting all the right spots in his presser in my view. Lots of genuine laughter too.

  23. bemused @ #125 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:56 am

    TPOF @ #119 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:52 am

    DTT

    As of course are you and all the Gillard supporters
    Now I am still a strong Rudd supporter, but probably agree that the letter was unhelpful, although I am not sure what triggered it.

    _____________________________________

    Actually, we “Gillard supporters” would rather not discuss it at all.

    Then why are there screams from the cultists every time Kev is mentioned in the media?

    https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/983120484605849601

  24. The attitude of some to one of our former Prime Ministers reminds me of the way Soviet history was fabricated by removal of references to Trotsky and others, even to the extend of air-brushing them out of photographs of leadership groups.

    All former Prime Ministers are part of our history and an attempt to air-brush out any is beyond pathetic.

  25. Darn @ #126 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:57 am

    For the sake of all those who no longer give a shit about who is right and who is wrong in the RGR wars (it’s all been raked over a million times before), can those involved please stop trying to have the last word all the time and just let the bloody thing go. No-one is going to change anyone else’s mind on the subject, we know that, so why persist?

    The only way I can make any sense of it is that some of the combatants must find the argy bargy cathartic in some way. The hurt they felt at the time has never properly healed and they find some solace in venting their anger here every time the matter comes up. But for the rest of us who have managed to move on from those stressful times it does get a bit tedious hearing it all over and over again.

    Darn. I have no comments on what happened then. My only concern and my only comments have been on the self-injection of this former LABOR Prime Minister into the current political environment in a way that was demonstrably UNHELPFUL to the party he professes to continue to support.

  26. bemused @ #127 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:58 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #121 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:54 am

    zoomster @ #101 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 8:30 am

    It is unseemly for a former Prime Minister to carry on in the way Rudd does. It diminishes him.

    Exactly. Witness the difference between Rudd and Gough Whitlam, a far greater man than Rudd will ever be.

    Gough had a very real reason to have been bitter about the very real injustice inflicted on him. Did he spend his post-political career continually bemoaning what happened to him? No, although he had every reason to do so. In his later life he even became friends with, or at least friendly towards, the benefactor of the injustices perpetrated on him.

    To be sure we can all be grateful to Rudd and his team for saving us from the GFC, but, to put things in perspective, we can also thank John Howard for saving us from any US style gun massacres after Port Arthur. Hell, even Hitler was responsible for what is still the most efficient road system in the world, and Mussolini made the trains run on time. Despite all of these great acts, these men are remembered for the damage, not the good, they did.

    Whitlam was struck down by his opponents.
    Rudd was struck down by treachery on his own side.
    Spot the difference?

    Yes, Whitlam had the support of his caucus. Rudd did not. Yes/No?

    (Please, please, I don’t post much. Mainly read them. I certainly have never entered the RGR battlefield. I’ll take my bat and ball and go and leave the field quietly. Sorry for saying anything…)

  27. bemused @ #130 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:04 am

    The attitude of some to one of our former Prime Ministers reminds me of the way Soviet history was fabricated by removal of references to Trotsky and others, even to the extend of air-brushing them out of photographs of leadership groups.

    All former Prime Ministers are part of our history and an attempt to air-brush out any is beyond pathetic.

    Speaking of which, I saw “The Death of Stalin” last night. Grimly hysterical. And a reminder of what happened in the really ugly world. A great performance, among others, from Michael Palin as a doctrinaire Molotov trying to come to terms with the return from the dead (engineered by Beria) of his allegedly treacherous wife who was painted back into history.

  28. Darc @ #135 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:08 am

    bemused @ #127 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 10:58 am

    Whitlam was struck down by his opponents.
    Rudd was struck down by treachery on his own side.
    Spot the difference?

    Yes, Whitlam had the support of his caucus. Rudd did not. Yes/No?

    (Please, please, I don’t post much. Mainly read them. I certainly have never entered the RGR battlefield. I’ll take my bat and ball and go and leave the field quietly. Sorry for saying anything…)

    On the fateful night, NO.
    It was a well executed ambush. It worked.
    But in the end the mistake was recognised.

  29. bemused @ #134 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:07 am

    TPOF @ #129 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:02 am

    https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/983120484605849601

    So your point is?

    My point is that you forgot to include the whole quote that I responded to.

    I think you are a compulsive obsessive who can never be wrong once you have decided something – an anti-Keynesian perhaps. Somewhat like your King Lear like hero (more sinned against than sinning!!!).

    Enough of this rubbish anyway. Go and do something good for Labor and stop boring us shitless with this hysterical, over the top, utterly obsessive defence of a narcissistic ex-Labor leader.

  30. TPOF @ #137 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:08 am

    bemused @ #130 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:04 am

    The attitude of some to one of our former Prime Ministers reminds me of the way Soviet history was fabricated by removal of references to Trotsky and others, even to the extend of air-brushing them out of photographs of leadership groups.

    All former Prime Ministers are part of our history and an attempt to air-brush out any is beyond pathetic.

    Speaking of which, I saw “The Death of Stalin” last night. Grimly hysterical. And a reminder of what happened in the really ugly world. A great performance, among others, from Michael Palin as a doctrinaire Molotov trying to come to terms with the return from the dead (engineered by Beria) of his allegedly treacherous wife who was painted back into history.

    It is fascinating history in all its horror.

  31. @guytaur – exactly, as I’ve been saying, watch Shorten’s Budget reply speech. It’s gearing up as a pre-election Budget and the framing on what the election will be fought on.

  32. Darn

    I viewed it via ABC News 24. As it was a presser I am sure it was covered by Sky too.

    So usual outlets I would imagine.

  33. TPOF @ #142 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:12 am

    bemused @ #134 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:07 am

    TPOF @ #129 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:02 am

    https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/983120484605849601

    So your point is?

    My point is that you forgot to include the whole quote that I responded to.

    I think you are a compulsive obsessive who can never be wrong once you have decided something – an anti-Keynesian perhaps. Somewhat like your King Lear like hero (more sinned against than sinning!!!).

    Enough of this rubbish anyway. Go and do something good for Labor and stop boring us shitless with this hysterical, over the top, utterly obsessive defence of a narcissistic ex-Labor leader.

    Hilarious!

    I studied Economics at Monash University when Keynesian ideas dominated and I remain convinced. I never bought the Friedmanite kool aid that was dispensed later in my course, nor the re-branded neo-liberalism.

    I keep my posts short and leave it to you and others to bore everyone shitless with lengthy rants.

  34. It’s passing strange that the same people who are complaining that Rudd is living in the past, is an obsessive, won’t let it go etc etc, are the same people blathering on about the same historical events they’ve been blathering on about for years now.

    At least no one has used the dread phrase ‘past history’, that I heard on the national broadcaster this morning, to the best of my knowledge.

  35. J3

    I think the LNP are going to be in for a surprise with the budget reply. The way Mr Shorten is campaigning now I am starting to expect some real policy announcement in his speech.

    That will take the wind out of the LNP budget media coverage.

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