Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research yet again records a solid lead for Labor on two-party preferred, but finds Malcolm Turnbull moving clear as preferred Liberal leader.

The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.

A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).

Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,361 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 48
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  2. daretotread. @ #248 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 11:11 am

    Scout @ #244 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 2:09 pm

    Geoffrey – why the , should Shorten apologise to Rudd??? Seriously

    As stated previously – 99.99% of people go through some sort of trauma but they do not have a platform that Rudd does AND would have moved on by now instead of acting like a petulant child.

    I like others have been sucked in to this as distraction – can not believe the immaturity and self indulgence.

    The battle should be about fighting the huge tax cuts to those who don’t need it, lack of wage growth, etc etc

    Actually Scout the real issue RIGHT NOW is will we have WWII sometime in the next two months.

    The rest is pretty meaningless.

    Are you time travelling again?

    Or are you so eager to sprout your prophecies of doom that you forgot an “I”?

  3. Scout
    Sorry but 99% of people when faced with a similar level of combined work and personal betrayal DO take action.

    First they take union action for unfair dismissal if they can and had Rudd been the foreman on a work site he would have had every right to take such action

    Second they may seek legal damages (eg our silly farting case)

    Third they whinge incessantly and bore their friends and colleages with I was wronged stories

    Fourthly in many, many cases it tears their marriage apart

    Since the Gillard Swan tam up had many of the same personal aspects of a partner running off with the best friend, people use the divorce courts to find a platform or they use the kids
    Fifthly many, may do deliberate damage – nail the fish under the floor boards, key the car or pierce the tyres. Some will actually seek to have a fistfight, and if it was the USA a goodly share of the wronged will fire on the offender and take out another 10 as well

    Finally they claim (or are genuinely cursed with) PTSD and go on compo at taxpayer’s expense.

  5. jenauthor @ #250 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 2:16 pm

    An apology to Rudd and Aussies? Puhlease …

    —

    Besides, few here actually know the inside story – most operate on their own allegiances and in some cases ‘fandom’ which might or might not be based on facts.

    —

    We’re tribal creatures, and politics is the ultimate tribal sport.

    So you purport to know?
    I can’t really say I do. I only know what I could extract from my local MP and a couple of others.

  7. From an engineer’s perspective I would recommend that you find an actual expert who can take a look at what is going on so that the cause can be explained. If you just wipe your OS and start afresh you won’t know what you did that caused it in the first place meaning you might inadvertently end up back in this position down the track.

    Plus, understanding the problem will probably lend itself to a very easy/simple/non-disruptive fix. Networking isn’t fundamentally that complicated from the end-user perspective so working out which bit is going wrong and why shouldn’t be that hard for someone with a good background in it.

  8. Jen

    You summed it up in your last sentence. The RGR war protagonists remind me of footy fans still arguing about an umpire’s decision in some otherwise long forgotten game.

    Just as we will never know how a game would have panned out had this free kick or that not been awarded we will never know what Rudd would have done next.

    Just don’t mention the 1979 GF to Collingwood fans …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZQDQhtEfYM

  10. William

    You could join the Windows Insiders program, opting for the Active Development of Windows. Fast install.

    This would be like a reinstall in place keeping all your bits and bobs and would take an hour or so depending on download speed.

    If this should fail to correct you could then go ahead with your reinstall of windows as a new install.

    I quite regularly do a reinstall and have all my Docs, Favourites etc backed up quite often, as well as install programs for Ms Office, Photo Impact etc.

    Just a suggestion, feel free to ignore me, my favourite daughter usually does. ☮

  11. It’s about time I got a new laptop in any case. Donations gratefully accepted through the link at the top of the page.

  12. The last time I had to deal with web stuff was 15 years ago, so this is probably out of date, but back then a name like http://www.pollbludger.net resolved to either a single IP address (nnn.nnn.nnn.nnn)or a combination IP address followed by the forward slash and then a name (nnn.nnn.nnn.nnn/pollbludger). The PC would occasionally get confused specially if I was running a copy of the web site on my PC. But the IP address or IP address/name would work. The other thing that tripped me up from time to time was https versus http if the server wasn’t configured right.

  13. William Bowe @ #261 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 2:32 pm

    It’s about time I got a new laptop in any case. Donations gratefully accepted through the link at the top of the page.

    I’ve got one hanging about the house if you really meant that. It’s in quite good nick, if a little old and heavy. It’s a Dell. With Windows 10. 🙂

  14. William Bowe says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 1:39 pm

    …”Absence, your advice on how the blog should be run is most unlikely ever to impress me. The exchange you describe would be seen as give-and-take faults-on-both-sides by any reasonable person”…

    …
    The behaviour has little if any personal effect on me and, if you are aware of what was written last night, this should be fairly obvious.
    I simply found it deeply hypocritical and requiring exposure.
    In fact, I think this should be done regularly, for a number of people here and would probably be quite beneficial for their health.

  16. Puffytmd says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 11:27 am

    …”Absence of Empathy
    I left you an answer on the other thread, not wanting to clog this one up”…

    …
    I am sorry for the terror you must have endured.
    On Mr Rudd, I will simply say I disagree.

  18. That story about the Australian union official running a Black Lives Matter page scam is … just bizarre.

    If the allegations are true this is lower than your regular ‘Nigerian Prince’ con … cons rely on the greed of the victim to be successful … this would appear to be fraud, plain and simple, exploiting peoples’ concern and generosity.

    And good work on making ‘Australian Union Official’ the likely butt of comedy about dodgy behaviour.

  19. Scout et Al miss my point
    I am not discuss merits or issue but two things

    Public perception. Is a mistake was made ..I also happen believe

    Esp has anyone considered risk that Rudd will start debunking shorten

    Re 8 years and past ..get over it ..we let hawke Keating Howard continue to talk about past .. Rudd is here to stay
    Strategically I say bring on apology or something magnanimous …

  20. Geoffrey @ #269 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 3:08 pm

    Scout et Al miss my point
    I am not discuss merits or issue but two things

    Public perception. Is a mistake was made ..I also happen believe

    Esp has anyone considered risk that Rudd will start debunking shorten

    Re 8 years and past ..get over it ..we let hawke Keating Howard continue to talk about past .. Rudd is here to stay
    Strategically I say bring on apology or something magnanimous …

    Right about Hawke and Keating.
    And I still harbour some bitterness about Hawke’s behaviour during the Whitlam Govt.

  21. “Apparently I don’t have backup set up. Thought I did but I don’t.”

    Recent Restore Point maybe?? Not the same as a full disk image backup but sometimes good if its a registry setting or something like that gone scquew iff??

  22. nope Geoffrey – get over it

    Keating / Howard continue to talk about the past, can’t recall either apologizing. Dessicated coconut would never do so!

    strategically it would be better for Rudd to stop having a sook every opportunity he gets, I respect him for the apology to the stolen generation, helping get us through the global financial crisis but all that has been diminished and takes away from everything else by his ‘re inventing the past’ re JG.

    Move on

  24. Bemused you have it backward – I purport NOT to know and you likely don’t either. It is all perception. Your local MP and others have a perception about it — unless they were in the room? Doubt it.

    The fact that you still harbour bitterness from the 70s tells me you REALLY need to learn to let go.

    The past cannot be changed, only your perceptions can change.

  26. jenauthor @ #274 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 3:19 pm

    Bemused you have it backward – I purport NOT to know and you likely don’t either. It is all perception. Your local MP and others have a perception about it — unless they were in the room? Doubt it.

    The fact that you still harbour bitterness from the 70s tells me you REALLY need to learn to let go.

    The past cannot be changed, only your perceptions can change.

    He was at that meeting where Evatt urged his supporters to take down the names of dissenters in the Caucus back in the early 50s.

  29. Nath – you just have to go to the actual reports and statistics. Not the cherry-picked stuff taken in isolation without context.

  31. Still I suppose a hundred house fires is less of a waste than spending $40 billion on submarines to patrol the vast oceans that surround us.

  34. Well here is one report.

    Coroner Michael Barnes criticised the men’s employers and supervisors and state government agencies for the safety failings that lead to their deaths.
    But the report offered particularly damning criticism of one of Mr Rudd’s pet programs that was designed to help shield Australia from the global financial crisis.
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/coroner8217s-findings-over-home-insulation-deaths-a-blow-to-kevin-rudd/news-story/f518efff27dadd75c17b876374e534ac

  35. William Bowe says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 1:41 pm
    I will be drawing a line under accusations of bullying and stalking and suggestions that other comments should fuck off.

    That can only be a good thing William. I hope you will police it without fear or favour.

  37. Nath – are you a troll?

    The comment re house fires sounds like it is straight from a Abbott staffer. Critical analysis is good, but having a go at Rudd re the insulation scheme is cheap politics that does not acknowledge the context ie WHS Laws etc

    BTW what do you think of the current coalition attempt to argue that tax cuts to the rich leads to wages increase for all?

  39. every time I make a critical comment about the A.L.P I get termed a troll. It is so sad. The home insulation saga was just the most poignant episode in a government for which I voted for and which was utterly dismal. Oh but I am an Abbott staffer! And no I don’t support tax cuts. There has already been enough tax cuts over the past two decades.

  40. nath @ #273 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    Rudd has a legacy to protect. How many house fires were caused by the home insulation shenanigans? Over 100 I think.

    Oh really?
    So what does that have to do with Rudd or the Government?
    All those installations were carried out by private businesses, selected for the job by householders. The Govt just provided funding.

  42. Rudd created the environment where these businesses could make big money and do a shitty job. They interfered with the laws of supply and demand in an unfortunate way. Why not make higher standard insulation for new builds instead of creating the poor system they did create?

  43. jenauthor @ #274 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 3:19 pm

    Bemused you have it backward – I purport NOT to know and you likely don’t either. It is all perception. Your local MP and others have a perception about it — unless they were in the room? Doubt it.

    The fact that you still harbour bitterness from the 70s tells me you REALLY need to learn to let go.

    The past cannot be changed, only your perceptions can change.

    I can forgive, but I never forget.

    Forgiveness comes a lot easier if there has been an apology and true contrition.

    I do not let such bad past events guide my future conduct and campaigned just as hard for Gillard as I did for Rudd and more recently, Shorten.

  44. Greensborough Growler @ #276 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 3:22 pm

    jenauthor @ #274 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 3:19 pm

    Bemused you have it backward – I purport NOT to know and you likely don’t either. It is all perception. Your local MP and others have a perception about it — unless they were in the room? Doubt it.

    The fact that you still harbour bitterness from the 70s tells me you REALLY need to learn to let go.

    The past cannot be changed, only your perceptions can change.

    He was at that meeting where Evatt urged his supporters to take down the names of dissenters in the Caucus back in the early 50s.

    Oh yes, seared into my memory as a toddler. Idiot!

  46. bemused
    says:
    Tuesday, April 10, 2018 at 3:40 pm
    nath @ #277 Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 – 3:22 pm
    happy to be enlightened if you have a link to an article that can point to some other culprit!
    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    As funny as a burning orphanage

  49. Nath.

    Simple fact:

    Per installation the risk of your house catching fire as a result of an insulation install under the HIP was 7 times less than it was before the program.

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