Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor maintains its existing lead in the latest Essential poll, despite improving perceptions on the outlook for the economy.

With Newspoll holding its fire ahead of tonight’s budget, the one new federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly result from Essential Research – which, The Guardian reports, has maintained its recent form in recording Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47. Primary votes to follow with the publication of the full report later today. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull on 40% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (steady), Bill Shorten on 37% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (down two), and Turnbull leading 40-26 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 41-26 last time.

As related in The Guardian’s report, other questions relate to what respondents would like in the budget, of which the most interesting findings would seem to be an 11% increase for “assistance for the unemployed” compared with last year, along with 8% increases for age pensions, affordable housing and assistance for the needy. The most favoured categories overall are health care, age pensions, education and affordable housing; the least favoured are foreign aid, business assistance and the military. Eighteen per cent expect the budget to be good for them personally (up eight on last year) compared with 24% for bad (down six), and 39% now rate the economy good (up six since November) compared with 24% for bad.

Note also the post below this one on the looming Western Australian state by-election in Darling Range.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down two to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,901 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Tony Abbot tweets

    George Brandis has begun his ambassadorship with a partisan attack that rewrites history. How could the Liberal Party under my leadership have been “ideologically right-wing” when I had him as part of the leadership group?

  2. BiDG
    P1 self reports as not knowing whether to scream or to weep about the extinction of humanity. Eventually P1 settled on snarking as the preferred compromise.

  3. ‘Bonza says:
    Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 9:24 am

    Any speculation on whether the budget will have any impact on the value of our dollar?’

    Not that I have seen.

  4. guytaur

    Re the Deacon thing.
    Years and years ago, I had a friend who was an Anglican Deaconess. Seemed to me to be a sort of assistant to the Vicar and possibly taught Sunday school. Nothing very high-holy. Even so, I find it hard to imagine Our George in the role.

  6. Let’s have five facts:

    1. How much capitalization will the Volksturmbank require?
    2. Where is the capital coming from?
    3. How much is the UBI going to cost over forward estimates?
    4. Where is the capital going to come from?
    5. When will the Massive National Campaign to Change the Date reach fruition?

    #Show us the money, Di Natale!

  7. Just finished reading this article – https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2018/05/05/inside-the-just-add-people-dogma/15254424006178

    I recommend it to anyone who still thinks a high rate of migration is a sensible means of growth …

    “ONLY IN ECONOMICS IS ENDLESS EXPANSION SEEN AS A VIRTUE. IN BIOLOGY IT IS CALLED CANCER.”

    The problem is that we have been conned into thinking we are growing because of our own efforts, because we are still “the clever country”. But the reality is somewhat different …

    Australia’s per capita growth last year was just 0.8 per cent, by the recent calculation of business journalist Alan Kohler.

    “That is, two thirds of last year’s economic growth came from population and most of that from immigration,” he wrote.

    “So Australia’s actual national economic strategy, as opposed to the pretend one, is to simply add numbers – not to encourage jobs and growth through tax cuts – and it has been since 2005, when John Howard doubled average immigration from 100,000 per year to 200,000.”

    In conjunction with the natural increase in the population, immigration now adds about a million more people to Australia every three years.

    By tacit agreement, both major political parties, as well as the econocrats who advise them, persist with the “just add people” strategy. It’s convenient because it allows them to maintain the fiction that Australia is some kind of miracle economy that due to their superior economic management hasn’t had a recession for more than a quarter of a century.

    It’s convenient, too, for Australia’s corporate sector, because it’s a lazy way to make money. Indeed, the Business Council of Australia would like to import even more people each year.

    “The BCA/boardroom orthodoxy simply says ‘the more the merrier’,” says former New South Wales premier Bob Carr, a long-time sceptic about the benefits of high immigration.

    “Australian growth is dependent on the highest rate of immigration, proportionately, of any developed country. It is excessively dependent on … building apartments and struggling to build infrastructure,” he says.

    “That’s not a smart society. That’s not innovation. Maybe it’s time to shift the debate to the appropriateness of this economic model. I pose the question: would it be such a tragedy if we took about six years before we added another million to our population, instead of three, as we do now?

    And the problem is actually much worse than most people realize. Most articles only consider the population growth out to 2050, when we will hit 40 million … but of course that’s not the end of the story …

    “But it is self-evident that population cannot expand forever. We need a long-term goal because of the inertia of growth. If we had zero net migration today … the population would take about 20 years to stabilise.

    “The ABS has done three projections of future population based on different assumptions about birthrate and migration rate. The ‘A’ projection has us at 60 million at the end of the century, but we are currently tracking above the A projection.”

    Australia is the driest continent, with a very limited carrying capacity, Lowe says. “At 60 million people, we could not even feed ourselves.”

    The more immediate problem, though, is that Australia’s infrastructure just can’t keep up, and will fall further behind over time, Lowe says.

    Growth through migration is a ponzi scheme.

  8. Lizzie

    As compassion and empathy with others is a vital part of being a Deacon or at least I think thats whats required I think Christensen is unsuitable for the role.

    His hard line right wing views should preclude him from that.

    Shows how stuffed religious hierarchy is.
    Its why I am against organised religion. Be that Christian Islam Buddhist whatever.

    When people organise in the name of religion and put polices in place compassion and empathy seem to be far from the thoughts on policy of these people.

  9. Peter Evans, whom I mentioned earlier, has this to say on the Schneiderman story. hmmm

    Pete EVANS
    ‏

    @911CORLEBRA777
    20m20 minutes ago
    More Pete EVANS Retweeted Donald Trump Jr.
    Note the time stamp on this & KellyAnn Conway’s similar tweet. Literally within minutes of the story dropping. I was wrong. This is smelling more of a setup by the minute. Team Trump seem to have been waiting for this to drop

  11. The Kouk tweets
    Utterly horrible retail trade data:
    0.0% ‘growth’ in month of March
    March Qtr up a puny 0.2% in real terms (accounts for approx one-fifth of GDP)
    The weak wages/high household debt impact

    Are the budget forecasts under question before they are released?

  14. Is it just me, or is the scepticism surrounding tonight’s budget so thick you could scoop it up in a fishing net? I don’t mean just on PB, but even in outlets that would normally be sympathetic to a coalition government.

    I can’t remember anything like it, even for a Labor budget.


  15. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 11:30 am
    ..

    Boerwar grow up; it’s not as if a government bank has not existed before. Selling of the Commonwealth bank made the government a few bucks and resulted in the state pretty much losing control of the whole banking sector.

    When it comes to financing the government pretty much underwrites the whole dam lot of them anyway.

    I don’t know what the Greens proposed but your questions are just make you look silly.

  16. BW

    P1 and I have had some long arguments. It been about the pace of take up of renewables. However we both agree that gas is a transition fuel.

    P1 is not out there with the pixies when it comes to the environment.

  19. Frednk

    Grown-up parties fund and cost their policies. Time for the Greens to stop playing kiddiwinks with their youthful groupies.

    Let’s have five facts:

    1. How much capitalization will the Volksturmbank require?
    2. Where is the capital coming from?
    3. How much is the UBI going to cost over forward estimates?
    4. Where is the capital going to come from?
    5. When will the Massive National Campaign to Change the Date reach fruition?

    #Show us the money, Di Natale!

  21. I don’t know about skepticism, but so much of the budget is already out, despite so-called ‘lock-up’ is really hilarious.

    What’s he going to announce tonight? Or will he just stand there with his shit-eating smirk and expect applause?

  23. The lack of movement towards the Coalition in Essential must be quite worrying for them.

    At the point Essential was sampling, the infrastructure announcements and tax cuts had all been ‘leaked’.

    The detail/discussion since then in the mainstream media has been:
    * The tax cuts are smaller and slower than expected.
    * The government is hiding the debt from the infrastructure, and other budget shenanigans.
    * Former Liberals treasurers lining up to point out all the flaws in the budget.

    When these all filter through to the polling, Trumble could end up getting a negative movement from his pre-election budget.

  24. All the posters who were caterwauling about facts have gone studiously silent on total lack of costings and fundings for the Greens trillions. Instead they have resorted to people bashing.

    But these are not little facts. They are big facts.

    #Showusthemoney, Di Natale.

  26. j

    ‘Or will he just stand there with his shit-eating smirk and expect applause?’

    That could turn out to be the $64 billion question.

  28. Just like the Liberal Party, Christianity is a broad church.

    There are any number of “Christian” organisations where Big George would be made most welcome because of what many of the rest of us would regard as most unChristian attitudes.

  29. Eric Schneiderman, New York’s Attorney General, Resigns Amid Abuse Accusations

    “It’s been my great honor and privilege to serve as attorney general for the people of the State of New York,” Mr. Schneiderman said in a statement. “In the last several hours, serious allegations, which I strongly contest, have been made against me.

    “While these allegations are unrelated to my professional conduct or the operations of the office, they will effectively prevent me from leading the office’s work at this critical time. I therefore resign my office, effective at the close of business on May 8, 2018.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/07/nyregion/new-york-attorney-general-eric-schneiderman-abuse.html

  31. lizzie @ #104 Tuesday, May 8th, 2018 – 11:26 am

    guytaur

    Re the Deacon thing.
    Years and years ago, I had a friend who was an Anglican Deaconess. Seemed to me to be a sort of assistant to the Vicar and possibly taught Sunday school. Nothing very high-holy. Even so, I find it hard to imagine Our George in the role.

    Lizzie, being a Deacon is the immediate step before being ordained as a Priest (at least it is in the Anglican Church), so your friend was reasonably on their way up. All Priests are Deacons.

    Tom.

    Tom.

  32. Is anyone able to get up a copy of today’s Daily Telegraph front page? I had a quick glance at it as I was out and about and was thinking that it might answer the scepticism question about the budget, as they are Scrote’s greatest boosters. Until they aren’t. 🙂

  33. ‘frednk says:
    Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 11:56 am

    As I said Boerwar it just makes you look silly.’

    Mere people bashing. The standard for credible parties is that they cost their policies and identify funding for them.

    Di Natale has promised to set up a people’s bank. That bank will provide cut rate interest to hundreds of thousands of home buyers in Australia. Neither the costings nor the funding has been identified.

    Now THAT makes Di Natale and his sock puppets on Bludger look very, very silly.

    #Showusthemoney, Di Natale.

  35. I reckon they should call the LITO ‘Tax Cut’ the ‘You’ll get a sandwich and a milkshake next year if you’re good and you vote for us’ ‘Tax Cut’. 🙂

  36. Boerwar @ #106 Tuesday, May 8th, 2018 – 9:30 am

    Let’s have five facts:

    1. How much capitalization will the Volksturmbank require?
    2. Where is the capital coming from?

    You can easily answer the first two questions by answering these questions:

    1 How much capitalsation did the original People’s Bank (the Commonwealth) require?
    2 Where did the capital come from to form the original People’s Bank (the Commonwealth)?

    Whatever the answers to these questions are, then they are the answers to your questions. Simples.

    The other questions are non-sequitur red herrings designed to deflect away from your self inflicted embarrassment over the post after post after post rants you made about di Natalie “nationalising the banks”. By throwing in the non-sequitur red herrings, it’s obvious that even you realise how idiotic your “bank nationalising” rants (post after post after post for at least the last few weeks) are and were, and how there was not a skerrick of truth in them. Typical of the fear mongering Tories like you are famous for.

    Oh, and BTW you think your constant use of the term Volksbank makes you look clever . It does the exact opposite.

    Remember , we did actually have a “people’s bank” once upon a time. It was called the Commonwealth Bank. The reason we now need another people’s bank is because the original people’s bank (the Commonwealth) was flogged off in a homage to your beloved neo-liberalism. And by crikey, didn’t that work out well for the “people”.

  37. lizzie @ #25 Tuesday, May 8th, 2018 – 11:48 am

    We seem to have a medical description of Bob Hawke’s problem.
    He had “the wobbles”.

    Thanks Lizzie. The following is a piece from 9News.com.au.
    I have become a master at spending a lot of time putting together a post only to hit a key (pick a key – any key) which deletes the lot.I now have installed Comfort Clipboard Manager, which, if I can remember to keep doing Ctl A – Ctl C, will retain a series of clips. It seems to work quite well. Note – not a single reference to Ancient Greek or Roman Gods.

    Long-serving Labor prime minister Bob Hawke has been admitted to Royal North Shore Hospital in Sydney.It is not yet known what Mr Hawke is being treated for, but wife Blanche d’Alpuget denied reports he suffered a stroke or pneumonia.She said her husband was nothing more serious than a case of “the wobbles”.

  38. As a nominal Anglican, I am happy to tell George Christianson to go hell, get the fuck out of my denomination and go over to the crazy fundies where he belongs. No wonder I don’t go anymore, even though I do like the services, especially the music. The man has not got the intellectual rigour or compassion to be a good Anglican priest.

    You are not wanted, you bigotted prick.

  42. Tom

    I’m not sure that at that time, female priests were possible. I never discussed it with her. Our friendship was based our love of cooking. 🙂

  43. Wow! The Eric Schneidermann stuff is toxic! Courtesy of Ronan Farrow in The New Yorker:

    Now Schneiderman is facing a reckoning of his own. As his prominence as a voice against sexual misconduct has risen, so, too, has the distress of four women with whom he has had romantic relationships or encounters. They accuse Schneiderman of having subjected them to nonconsensual physical violence. All have been reluctant to speak out, fearing reprisal. But two of the women, Michelle Manning Barish and Tanya Selvaratnam, have talked to The New Yorker on the record, because they feel that doing so could protect other women. They allege that he repeatedly hit them, often after drinking, frequently in bed and never with their consent. Manning Barish and Selvaratnam categorize the abuse he inflicted on them as “assault.” They did not report their allegations to the police at the time, but both say that they eventually sought medical attention after having been slapped hard across the ear and face, and also choked. ..

    In a statement, Schneiderman said, “In the privacy of intimate relationships, I have engaged in role-playing and other consensual sexual activity. I have not assaulted anyone. I have never engaged in nonconsensual sex, which is a line I would not cross.”

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/four-women-accuse-new-yorks-attorney-general-of-physical-abuse

    Hmm. One man’s ‘Role Play’ is another woman’s abuse, it seems.

  44. C@tmomma @ #39 Tuesday, May 8th, 2018 – 11:59 am

    Is anyone able to get up a copy of today’s Daily Telegraph front page? I had a quick glance at it as I was out and about and was thinking that it might answer the scepticism question about the budget, as they are Scrote’s greatest boosters. Until they aren’t. 🙂

    Daily Telegraph – with a photo of Mr. Morrison to colour in.

  45. Kellyanne Conway tweets

    Gotcha. https://twitter.com/schneiderman/status/918141644490321920

    This is an e.g. o f replies she is getting

    @KellyannePolls @AGSchneiderman U lie daily&back a rapist; a serial sexual assaulter; serial sexual abuser; a pedophile; DJTsaid his daughter had great tits, he’d date her; that she was a great pc of ass;serial adulterer; a racist; a pathological liar; a homophobe; a xenophobe; a misogynist.

  46. The Aged Care package won’t go far to help the 1000s already registered for one an in typical fashion there will be assistance for the elderly to start up businesses. Whoopy-do. Typical Coalition “self-help” programs.

  49. Why aren’t ALP people out saying they won’t cop a lecture about taxation levels from a Party whose leader parks his dough in the Cayman Islands?

  50. poroti

    So typical.
    Was it you or someone else who reminded us that the Coalition idea of financial generosity is to cut $millions from a program one year and then reward us with $thousands in the following budget.

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