Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.
Good morning all!
Word that I have received from our sources is that the Liberals are still very interested in going to a general election , the operative date mentioned is 11 August.
Turnbull is currently currently cold on the By- Elections.
The Right are at him about succession planning in favour of Dutton. They have offered him clean air if he agrees to Dutton as his successor.
Win or lose they still want Turnbull gone.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/news/deadly-convenience-keyless-cars-and-their-carbon-monoxide-toll/ar-AAxhwzZ?ocid=ems.display.welcomeexperience
Andrew C Laufer, Esq @lauferlaw
Hey @realDonaldTrump looks like your boy Manafort’s case is going forward. Sad! You’re going to Prison, Traitor.
A Judge Just Denied Paul Manafort’s Motion To Dismiss The Indictment Against Him In DC
The judge rejected Manafort’s challenge to special counsel Robert Mueller’s appointment.
A federal judge on Tuesday denied former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort’s motion to dismiss the indictment returned against him by a grand jury in Washington, DC — rejecting Manafort’s challenge to special counsel Robert Mueller’s appointment.
This is a developing story.
The whole damn Trump saga is a developing story.
Problem is it’s taking so long to develop, you’ve got to wonder if it ever will.
adrian @ #4 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 7:29 am
Isn’t it great to wake up to the mental image of Trump with egg on his face? 🙂
The Bastiaan (RW conservative) push continues to advance in Vic.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-sophie-s-choice-but-mirabella-rules-out-political-comeback-20180515-p4zfge.html
The Australian
The Daily Telegraph
Good morning all. ☮☕
Morning all
Robert Ball
When is super Saturday by elections supposed to be held?
KayJay
Thanks for the pages of our enemies. Labor “cash spree”, “tax grab”. 🙁
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Want to see something about the royal wedding? Well you won’t find it here!
Ross Gittins hasn’t let up on criticising Morrison and his utterings.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rich-whingers-not-as-hard-done-by-as-morrison-would-have-you-think-20180515-p4zfc5.html
And Stephen Koukoulas says the Turnbull government is kidding itself when it claims the labour market is strong.
https://thekouk.com/item/601-the-turnbull-government-is-kidding-itself-when-it-claims-the-labour-market-is-strong.html
North Korea has suspended high-level talks with South Korea scheduled for today due to US-South Korean military exercises and warned that a summit next month between its leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump could be in jeopardy. How’s Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize looking?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/north-korea-suspends-talks-with-south-warns-on-trump-kim-summit-20180516-p4zfiv.html
Katharine Murphy previews the upcoming ALP conference.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/16/labor-right-pushes-for-conference-majority-as-shorten-faces-test-of-leadership
The Australian headlines that retirees will fund Labor’s spending splurge.
https://outline.com/bfttbe
If things weren’t difficult enough for her Rebekha Sharkie could be forced to campaign in Mayo by-election under Nick Xenophon Team banner.
https://outline.com/34CLc8
Jane Halton, the Former head of the Department of Finance, lashes the government’s third budget for lacking the guts to undertake real reform.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/former-finance-secretary-says-budget-fails-on-reforms-questions-wage-predictions-20180515-p4zfbf.html
People with a disability are waiting months for simple callbacks when they complain of errors or inadequacies with their national disability insurance scheme support plan, the ombudsman has found.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/15/damning-report-finds-ndis-complaints-ignored-for-months
New housing proposals in one fast-growing area of Sydney will be slowed down, as the government concedes apartment growth is outpacing infrastructure.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/time-to-take-a-breath-government-hits-brake-on-sydney-housing-hotspot-20180515-p4zfhc.html
The SMH editorial looks at the Israel/Palestine situation.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/more-pain-in-gaza-20180515-p4zffk.html
This article in the AFR says that the celebration of the US embassy relocation to Jerusalem was grotesque. It was a consummation of the cynical alliance between hawkish Jews and Zionist evangelicals who believe that the return of Jews to Israel will usher in the apocalypse and the return of Christ, after which Jews who don’t convert will burn forever.
https://outline.com/BvGeDC
Pastors at the Jerusalem embassy opening highlight evangelicals’ deal with The Donald.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/15/donald-trump-evangelicals-christian-right-jerusalem
The United States ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, has defended Israel for its “restraint” in dealing with protests that left at least 60 Palestinians dead in violent clashes with the military.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/05/16/israel-gaza-nikki-haley-restraint/
Jonathan Steele says that there is a cost to Trump and we are seeing it now in Gaza.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/15/donald-trump-gaza-palestinians-israel
John Crace opines that the boorish Boris Johnson is now a one-man rogue state, a believer in his own genius, seeming safe in the knowledge that no one will dare sack him
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/15/boorish-boris-johnson-one-man-rogue-state
Sydney’s homeless population increased more than three times faster than the national rate due to soaring house prices and policy inaction, a landmark study has found.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/sydneys-homeless-population-increases-at-more-than-triple-the-national-rate-landmark-report-finds-20180515-h101i1/?utm_campaign=featured-masthead&utm_source=smh&utm_medium=link
As the reality sinks in that Telstra earnings have fallen off a cliff, so the chatter about the need for a management overhaul is re-emerging. Whether chief executive Andrew Penn can escape this time remains to be seen.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/penn-under-the-gun-as-telstra-s-earnings-hangover-gets-worse-20180515-p4zffa.html
How do people and institutions get away with prejudice? Simple, they dress discrimination in the cloak of merit. Just ask Jane Prentice.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/jane-prentice-and-the-biggest-con-of-our-age-20180515-p4zfek.html
The numbers don’t lie on the Liberal Party’s ‘woman problem’
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/14/liberals-female-representation-jane-prentice/
Labor will vow to beat the Turnbull government at budget repair by posting bigger surpluses over the next four years, unveiling a bold economic message for voters who cannot be won by tax cuts alone. Chris Bowen will talk to this at the NPC today.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-makes-bold-pledge-to-prioritise-budget-repair-20180515-p4zfg2.html
Michelle Grattan previews Bowen’s speech.
https://theconversation.com/labor-would-deliver-bigger-surpluses-than-the-coalition-bowen-96678
Phil Coorey reports that Labor has accused the federal government of swindling the elderly in last week’s budget by taking $1.6 billion from nursing homes, using it to fund 14,000 places for home care and badging it as new money.
https://outline.com/gSBStA
John Collett writes that the vertical integration business models of the banks, the “wealth” managers like AMP and some of the independently owned financial planning businesses, will likely be the focus of the royal commission’s recommendations concerning financial advice.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/something-will-have-to-give-in-financial-advice-20180515-p4zfbr.html
Highly-regarded fund manager Geoff Wilson has warned against investing in beaten down AMP shares, saying the embattled wealth manager’s financial planning business was “rotten” to the core. Ouch!
https://outline.com/cWBac7
Adele Ferguson writes about the heads that keep rolling in the murky world of superannuation.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-heads-keep-rolling-in-the-murky-world-of-super-20180515-p4zfh7.html
Why we can’t just throw more regulation at the ethical issues raised by the banking royal commission.
https://theconversation.com/why-we-cant-just-throw-more-regulation-at-the-ethical-issues-raised-by-the-banking-royal-commission-96646
The Victorian Department of Public Prosecutions has narrowed its application for a complete ban on media reporting of the trials of Cardinal George Pell, but is still seeking an order that will have the effect of a ‘super injunction’.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/05/15/prosecutors-narrow-application-media-ban-cardinal-george-pell-trial/
The erratic nature of policy-making in the Trump era may produce unintended consequences. – including the status of the US dollar.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/unintended-consequences-how-trump-is-threatening-the-us-dollar-20180515-p4zfdg.html
Peter Hannam tells us that the Abbott-Turnbull government was warned about the potential of consumers being gouged by electricity networks for more than three years but failed to act until now. And he’s got letters to prove it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-government-knew-for-years-about-network-rorts-letters-show-20180515-p4zffo.html
Federal Labor has proposed new powers to crack down on tree-clearing across the country, in a move that could transform Queensland’s heated debate over land management into a nationwide row.
https://outline.com/xdJ8sM
Nicholas Stuart writes that the single-most critical defence spending issue this government ever makes will be made and announced next week. Not just in terms of cost, or size, or impact on Australian industry, but in terms of the very future of our defence force. This is the big one.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/three-ships-but-only-two-options-20180515-p4zfgg.html
Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and senior staff from his department could face criminal prosecution over delaying medical airlifts for refugees, says former WorkSafe Victoria prosecutor Max Costello.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/peter-duttons-rule-of-law-comments-could-come-back-to-haunt-him-,11497
Will small scale plastic pyrolysis plants be one answer to our packaging waste problem?
https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/a-solution-for-the-recycling-crisis-turn-plastic-into-energy-20180515-h1033w.html
$30m to Fox Sports, $84m from the ABC: A tale of two broadcasters
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/15/abc-cuts-foxtel-womens-sport-grant/
Baby formula will join razors and cigarettes behind the counter at some NSW supermarkets to ensure Australian parents have enough to feed their infants.
https://outline.com/c9FJTH
The Bureau of Meteorology says the federal government is jeopardising its ability to provide accurate rain and storm observations through plans to expose its radar systems to harmful radio wave interference.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/government-sell-off-threatens-accuracy-of-weather-radars-bureau-of-meteorology-warns-20180515-p4zfdz.html
Cartoon Corner
There’s a lot in this poignant contribution from David Rowe.
Cathy Wilcox lines up the Uber Tuber.
Chris Downes on the aftermath of the Tasmanian floods.
Glen Le Lievre on the Israel/Palestine situation.
Alan Moir unpacks vertical integration in the finance industry.
Mark Knight in Collins Street.
Paul Zanetti on the power of Google and Facebook.
Jon Kudelka with some suspicious behaviour at the airport.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/d0541ac8a06fb06221b28453a0fd6bd9
Some more in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-16-2018-20180515-h103dl.html
The Sydney Morning Herald
Found a bit of info on Camillus O’Kane.
http://www.news.com.au/world/aussie-couple-tell-of-their-joys-and-fears-about-marriage-while-almost-speechless-in-front-of-the-pope/news-story/1abcb1b1d78cf851d63d1434f02e4671
The Right are at him about succession planning in favour of Dutton. They have offered him clean air if he agrees to Dutton as his successor.
lizzie @ #9 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 7:49 am
You will probably sense my embarrassment when I confess that I have a very high regard for Mr. Shorten.
The revelation, courtesy of that old favourite, man and boy, “The Australian, of his (Mr. Shorten’s) perfidy only heightens my shame.
Still, we soldier bravely on.
The kettle has boiled – all is well. ☕
Time to work through BKs Dawn Patrol.
Ross Gittins gets it wrt Scott Morrison’s persiflage of pointless and misleading statistics:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rich-whingers-not-as-hard-done-by-as-morrison-would-have-you-think-20180515-p4zfc5.html
I see Murphy is back on her favourite hobby horse, Bill is facing a leadership test.
She’s reeled out this one a few times :
At the previous Labor conference
After the last election
After appointing Kimberly Kitching
After the Daystari affair
After Butler renominated for ALP president
I think there may have been a few other tests in there too.
Funnily, Mal never seems to have any tests…
Given those self or partly self funded retirees (those who have been impacted by the changes this government has made to part pension eligibility) who are self managed and who avail of a cash back of the Franking Credit when they are not assessed to pay tax in the first instance are invested into the ASX and Companies paying fully franked dividends by the advice of their Financial Advisers, how is the performance of Telstra impacting on their wealth?
They may be getting their cash handout but their wealth is being decimated with Telstra shares now under $3- and the business model the Balance Sheet is invested into under pressure
And who sold them their Telstra shareholding and at what prices?
Despite the dividends, included in the IPO’s aka Qantas, the Stock has been and continues to be a dog
The greed of receiving the cash back by imputation is sending the investors broke
And that is the bottom line
How does a broke Company still pay a dividend after the IPO Capital runs out?
Which it will
The Prospectus included the deployment of Capital raised to dividends across the out periods – aka Qantas – but all good things come to an end and the Capital deployed to future dividends will run out including because it needs to be deployed to business operations which is where the pressure is – as the Share price confirms
These people will be spitting chips as their wealth erodes including because of the sentiment re bank shares and bank business models where the “rivers of gold” revenue from grow the book regardless have finished
Good luck to these ill advised, greedy people
Dutton’s prosecution for failure of duty of care is the least of what I would like to see happen to him., although it would suffice. It is needed if for no other reason than to show the people that we have to capacity to admit to our wrongs.
Like a truth and justice commission into the indigenous history, a very necessary black arm band review of our past.
More on the Victorian DPP media ban at the Pells trials (plural). It is of little surprise that there is need to prevent the risk of contamination of the second, with the risk of its abortion, I suppose.
It was the defence who requested the separation of charges into two trials wasn’t it.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/05/15/prosecutors-narrow-application-media-ban-cardinal-george-pell-trial/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=breaking-news_-prosecutors-narrow-application-for-media-ban-on-cardinal-geor-_-2018-05-15-_-10-29-27
Vogon Poet @ #16 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 8:08 am
She, Ms. Murphy, has the benefit of several “Well Placed Sources”.
I would like to see this story combined with another dealing with inside information concerning Naplan Tests. Although the ages concerned with Naplan may make the current story appear on a level with Once Upon a Time.
Back to BKs dawn patrol. 😎
Robert ball @6:52am
“Coalition right are at MT about succession planning in favour of Dutton” to give clean air.
Robert
Whether MT favours Dutton or not, he will be PM LNP wins next election.
So ALP slogan should be “if you vote Turnbull you get Dutton as PM”
Morning all. Thanks BK. I cant help feeling a bit dissappointed in the poll. It is clear that there are people out there stupid enough to fall for cynically designed budgets, and so Morrison keeps giving them to us. As time goes on people will realise the deep flaws in this budget, but by then it may be too late.
Every National Conference is a ‘test’ for the leader. That goes without saying.
Is there any corporate crime the Turnbull government will actually prosecute? Why do we even have laws and an AG?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-government-knew-for-years-about-network-rorts-letters-show-20180515-p4zffo.html
In case you missed it.
John Brack 1955
Collins Street 5pm
Adrian @7:29am
“It is a developing story”
Also, it is entertaining and deadly story.
Morning all thanks BK for today’s wrap. Is there a royal wedding on ? 😉
I’m glad this story is getting msm attention (I posted tweets about it yesterday), but can’t for the life of me work out why Trump is not facing any legal action for these breaches.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/05/15/trumps-latest-violation-of-the-emoluments-clause/?utm_term=.b6e06458a190
Thanks, BK and a special thanks to KayJay who brings a much-needed sweet whimsy to this blog.
Socrates @ #22 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 8:25 am
Yes, and the Cons know that too, along with the failure of the kill bill meme to gain any more traction. Hence the salient first post today from Robert Ball:
Now we here many on hear waxing lyrical about Russia and the Trump “collusion” and interference etc.
Now THIS is active government interference in the affairs of a foreign nation. Should be quite a few tit for tat embassy staff reduction etc. There will not be but still!!!! What does “tke down” mean.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46179.htm
This is so true. Who has the real power?
ItzaDream
Thank you for spotting the reference .
I had occasion to work through some questions similar to the NAPLAN test for year 9 students.
It is a tough test. While there are a few easy questions, most are difficult, some exceedingly so. The way they are asked is often hard to fathom, and the methods suggested (sometimes the answers are along the lines of ‘which method should you use’) are not always the best ones, and are needlessly complicated.
I can certainly see why teachers ‘teach to the test’ since they will be judged according to how well their students do on the test.
From the BK files.
People with a disability are waiting months for simple callbacks when they complain of errors or inadequacies with their national disability insurance scheme support plan, the ombudsman has found.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/15/damning-report-finds-ndis-complaints-ignored-for-months
The success of Centrelink response and NDIS adopting a similar outsourcing plan can only result in a benefit for somebody.
My nephew (Canberra) told me of a recent multi call (50 plus) to Centrelink followed by an hours wait after connection. Yes I know, many people have no problems at all.
This is the sort of system that appears necessary if the NDIS can be successfully remade into a Claytons system.
I managed 2000 paces yesterday – mowing some of my joint plus the vacant yard across the street.
Big day vacuuming and cleaning and more mowing.
Ah ❗ The wonder of it all.
The best news of all ❓
I woke up this morning. ❤ ❤
Now this is quite an imprtant artic;e
Never fear it is the WaPo so even Phoenix can read it without having to take a bath in disinfectant.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/world/wp/2018/05/11/chinas-new-train-line-to-iran-sends-message-to-trump-well-keep-trading-anyway/?utm_term=.66e8e6b65f91
Now what it means is that China has an investment interest in Iran, If Israel or the US try to attack Iran they have a big friend – with money.
What i am surprised about is that this railway is actually built. I had heard it was on the drawing board and expected it in 5 years or so!!!
Unless he’s planning to decimate the population, he’ll need eight numbers.
lizzie says:
Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 8:36 am
Eddy Jokovich @EddyJokovich · 8h8 hours ago
Police asking for ID at airports? Surely Peter Dutton can do better than that. Why not just tattoo six numbers on the left forearm of each person in Australia? #auspol
Nitpick: Eddy, you would need eight digits for each person in Australia to get a unique ID.
Jaeger and don
😆
Quasar (AnonBlock)
Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 8:33 am
Comment #28
You are very kind. Thank you. 😻
Gee whiz and here I thought Trump was a shoo in for the peace prize.
Pulling out of the Iran Deal, and the carnage on the Gaza Strip cos he promised this yet to be constructed Embassy in Jerusalem. Add to that North Korea getting cold feet.
Yep. Everything Trump touches dies. And anyone or any organisation associated with him included
Jaeger @ #38 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 8:45 am
Jaegar
We can be more sophisticated these days – microchips in ears should be the go. No need for unsightly tattoos. We can outsource to the local vets. They can go into schools and of course to all centrelink offices so that before you get to see anyone you go to visit the vet. Then before you take any sort of government job, or get a Hex debt.
lizzie @ #39 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 8:46 am
Although when Mr. Dutton is part of the equation
nitpick should read nitwit.
😵
Vic:
Plus Trump is preparing to place asylum seeker kids in military bases after separating them from their families.
Vogen poet @8:08am
Why after last election?
Don,
Only an idiot would not teach to the test. Not just for NAPLAN but anywhere. That’s the whole point of teaching and tests. I find it hard to believe that any sensible person would do otherwise.
If the outcome of passing the test is stuffed, that’s an indication the test is stuffed, not the teaching.
I’m not having a good morning.
Overnight one of my dogs had a diarrhoea attack all over the floor of two rooms (and he’s a big dog).
My other dog won’t speak to me.
And when I read through the overnight posts, I discovered that I am part of a ‘Confessions coven’ because I dared to criticise Bemused.
It seems my attempts to be tactful lead to endless misunderstandings.
Blind Freddy could accurately predict that the removal of USA forces (and war games) from their borders will be a not negotiable condition sought by North Korea – and in the absence of such an undertaking by Trump there will be no summit
In regards Israel, let them build a fence around the 1948 boundary line, and put a roof over themselves if they so wish – and then live within that wall and that roof
The nonsense that all Jews will return “home” one day so they need the territory they have assumed with aggression is an abject nonsense
Jerusalem needs to be a City under United Nations control given its religious significance to competing religions
Possibly a dumb question on baby formula shortages.
This has been going on for years, where retailers don’t have enough stock as people buy it, to send it overseas.
Why don’t the baby formula companies use all the money they are getting from the increased sales, and invest that in new cows and processing facilities to increase output?
How is there still a shortage?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-15/cashless-welfare-card-causes-horrible-financial-stress-users-say/9738954?pfmredir=sm
Given the examples quoted in the article, how can Dan Tehan say it’s improving lives?