BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Two polls last week landed right on the existing trend readings from BludgerTrack, which has accordingly recorded next to no movement.

Newspoll and Essential Research both had polls last week, and since we’re probably not due yet for a ReachTEL (the last was three weeks ago), we presumably have a lean week coming up. The latest BludgerTrack update accounts for the two aforesaid polls, and they have had the most minimal of impacts on the voting intention aggregates, on which the biggest move is a 0.6% drop for One Nation. The seat projections have the Coalition up one in Victoria and Western Australia, and down one in Queensland. A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll makes a modest addition to the established pattern of improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, with Bill Shorten flatlining. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

461 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. The Toorak Toff @ #96 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:57 am

    Over more than 100 years, Labor has won from Opposition just four times – under Scullin in 1929, Whitlam in 1972, Hawke in 1983 and Rudd in 2007.

    All exceptional leaders in their own way.

    The shortest gap was between Whitlam and Hawke, 11 years. It is nearly 11 years since Kevin 07.

    Make of that what you will.

    In their history the Liberal Party has won from opposition just 3 times. 🙂

  2. ‘It’s because you’re terrible’: Internet ridicules Sarah Sanders for sniveling about restaurant ejection

    I have infinitely less sympathy for Sanders than I do for the poor gay couple who just want a fucking wedding cake.

    Nobody chooses to be gay. Sanders chooses every day to be a lying propagandist for Trump. If business owners want to refuse her service, I’m cool with it. Businesses should have the right to refuse service to unrepentant assholes. Because nobody is born that way, and nobody has to stay that way.

  3. “In their history the Liberal Party has won from opposition just 3 times.”

    Four times?

    1949, 1975*, 1996 and 2013

    * Fraser was caretaker PM following the Dismissal and had formed a cabinet, but does that count?

  5. I am happy to wait for the apologies from those who claimed the LNP were going to lose Darling Range and told me I didn’t know what I was talking about.

  7. A R @ #100 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:06 am

    ‘It’s because you’re terrible’: Internet ridicules Sarah Sanders for sniveling about restaurant ejection

    I have infinitely less sympathy for Sanders than I do for the poor gay couple who just want a fucking wedding cake.

    Nobody chooses to be gay. Sanders chooses every day to be a lying propagandist for Trump. If business owners want to refuse her service, I’m cool with it. Businesses should have the right to refuse service to unrepentant assholes.

    Totally agree.

  9. https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2018/06/dead-right

    Richard Denniss – Dead Right: How neoliberalism ate itself and what comes next

    How did the big banks get away with so much for so long? Why are so many aged-care residents malnourished? And when did arms manufacturers start sponsoring the Australian War Memorial?

    In this passionate essay, Richard Denniss explores what neoliberalism has done to Australian society. For decades, we have been led to believe that the private sector does everything better, that governments can’t afford to provide the high-quality services they once did, but that security and prosperity for all are just around the corner. In fact, Australians are now less equal, millions of workers have no sick leave or paid holidays, and housing is unaffordable for many. Deregulation, privatisation and trickle-down economics have, we are told, delivered us twenty-seven years of growth … but to what end

  10. Paroti, America is already in a bad place. My sense it is on the precipice and the only real issue is whether it ends up impoverished as Gilead or as prosperous (on the surface and only for the ‘right’ people) as in the Greater Reich. Having just binged on The Man in the High Castle and caught up on The Handmaid’s Tale watching the real news (or is that the fake news, it’s so hard to tell apart these days) is very disturbing.


  11. Mark Graph says:
    Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 9:41 am

    William, I get similar results to you 47.9 to 52.1 per cent TPP.

    https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2018/06/poll-aggregation-update.html

    Mark

    Very nice presentation of the data; particularly the second graph. Also liked the dividing of newspoll into two groups; you can see the effect of the methodology change had on the newspoll, almost 1% on my reading. I suspect it is washing out as the one nation vote collapse.

    A couple of questions if I may.

    1) How do you allow for the ending of a series in your house effect calculation?
    2) Is the youGov series still active; which is as I suspected; way out in right field?
    3) You present 5 methods of predicting the numbers; which look as if they have a 1 point spread; which method gives the same result as Williams?

  12. Pegasus @ #109 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:12 am

    https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2018/06/dead-right

    Richard Denniss – Dead Right: How neoliberalism ate itself and what comes next

    How did the biog banks get away with so much for so long? Why are so many aged-care residents malnourished? And when did arms manufacturers start sponsoring the Australian War Memorial?

    In this passionate essay, Richard Denniss explores what neoliberalism has done to Australian society. For decades, we have been led to believe that the private sector does everything better, that governments can’t afford to provide the high-quality services they once did, but that security and prosperity for all are just around the corner. In fact, Australians are now less equal, millions of workers have no sick leave or paid holidays, and housing is unaffordable for many. Deregulation, privatisation and trickle-down economics have, we are told, delivered us twenty-seven years of growth … but to what end

    Yes, the decades of Lib-Lab trickle down economics has increased inequality.

    The Lib-Lab barrackers have forgotten about society.

  13. If the producers of Insiders want to reinvigorate it (which I believe is necessary) then they should start looking outside the usual list of suspects on the panel. I would be happy with at least one new face each week.

  14. This may not be as far from current American politics as it appears.

    Research estimates that 12 per cent of dogs older than eight years have dementia, rising to a third of dogs older than 14 years. In many cases, dog owners think signs like the dog staring at a wall is normal ageing. It is not.

    Leo’s transplant was performed as part of a Dogs and Cells program at Sydney University headed by Michael Valenzuela, a professor of regenerative medicine who specialises in dementia and Alzheimer’s in humans (and dogs).

    Signs of doggy dementia
    Staring at the wall.

    Not recognising you when you come home.

    Not finding dropped food.

    Getting stuck behind furniture at home.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-leo-s-doggy-dementia-reversal-gives-hope-for-a-cure-in-humans-20180622-p4zn7f.html

  15. and caught up on The Handmaid’s Tale watching the real news (or is that the fake news, it’s so hard to tell apart these days) is very disturbing.

    I can absolutely see America becoming a real life Gilead. Very scary times ahead.


  16. Compact Crank says:
    Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 10:07 am

    I am happy to wait for the apologies from those who claimed the LNP were going to lose Darling Range and told me I didn’t know what I was talking about.

    I don’t think I expressed an opinion, but just in case my apology.

  17. Not finding dropped food.

    Getting stuck behind furniture at home.

    At the time I had my baby put to sleep she was displaying some of these signs. Not so much not finding dropped food, but not caring there might be food dropped. She used to constantly get stuck on the couch too, forgetting how to get off.

    Very sad to watch.

  18. Andrew_Earlwood @ #110 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:17 am

    Paroti, America is already in a bad place. My sense it is on the precipice and the only real issue is whether it ends up impoverished as Gilead or as prosperous (on the surface and only for the ‘right’ people) as in the Greater Reich. Having just binged on The Man in the High Castle and caught up on The Handmaid’s Tale watching the real news (or is that the fake news, it’s so hard to tell apart these days) is very disturbing.

    Yes

    I tend to agree. If they could come up with a real leader they could pull out of it but that seems unlikely. I think we all had hope in Obama but he proved pretty ineffectual. He just did not have enough clout to get things done even closing Guantanamo which would have been at least a symbolic achievement.

    The election of Trump should be read as a massive warning sign that things were changing and trouble lies ahead. Actually I think Palin’s selection was a sign too – that the nutters in the Tea Party had effectively taken control of the Republicans.

    The US will muddle along PROVIDED that the economy stays tolerable. However given the US borrowing this is problematic. However a severe drought knocking food production or a major oil crisis could knock them – as could a major natural disaster – eg a big earthquake in California.

  19. So, the big question. You’re Malcolm Turnbull. You get to August and your internal polling has the libs at 48 versus Labor 52. Do you call an election? I suspect he might. It’s hard to imagine the situation getting any better and he’ll think he can run Labor down in the straight with his massive charm.
    Any views?

  20. Wasn’t long ago there was condemnation of John Howard for ignoring infrastructure for fistfuls of dollars in election bribes …and now we have Shorten doing the same by abandoning FTTP NBN.

  21. Andrew_Earlwood

    It will be some flavour of Plutocracy. The plutocrats just have to decide which flavour will best secure their dominance be it Gilead or a Greater United States Reich. given their surveillance capabilities it could be a bit 1984 .

  22. Sexy Rexy sees the world as a kind of bolean equation. There is only one question to ask: Does a person or political party espouse a form of socialism? Yes or No. if the answer is no then they are cast into a basket of deplorables called “neo-liberals”.

    You know it makes sense. The party that created medicare and lately the NDIS, not to mention Family Tax Benefits, who always supported a minimum wage etc etc etc is of course, obviously engaged in trickle down economics. … Lib-Lab. Same. Same. Woof. Woof.

  23. ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #119 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:29 am

    So, the big question. You’re Malcolm Turnbull. You get to August and your internal polling has the libs at 48 versus Labor 52. Do you call an election? I suspect he might. It’s hard to imagine the situation getting any better and he’ll think he can run Labor down in the straight with his massive charm.
    Any views?

    I don’t believe Mal will call an early election.

    But Dutton might.

  24. Fess

    So sorry. Luckily I’ve never had a dog like that.
    BTW, this morning I was perturbed to see my new poodle was fascinated, watching Cormann on the TV. I had to explain to her that we’re not a Coalition house!!

  27. AE – But Albo calls the Libs “Tories” so he’s the worker’s friend and on the right side of history.

  30. Melbourne “misses out”. Good.

    One option being considered is for a visit that takes in Sydney, Canberra and Cairns, but nothing had been “locked in” yet, a US government source has told The Australian newspaper.

    Federal cabinet minister Christopher Pyne said any US President is welcome in Australia, despite a high chance of protests.

    “We have 100 years of mateship with the United States this year, of course we would welcome him here,” Mr Pyne told reporters in Adelaide on Saturday.

    “There’s almost always protests when an American president visits Australia.”

    Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek also gave a Trump visit a seal of approval, saying Australia’s relationship with the US was very valued and important for national security.

    “That doesn’t mean that we should be unquestioning allies,” she told reporters in Sydney.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/06/23/donald-trump-visit-australia/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sunday%20Best%2020180624

  33. Andrew_Earlwood @ #122 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:30 am

    Sexy Rexy sees the world as a kind of bolean equation. There is only one question to ask: Does a person or political party espouse a form of socialism? Yes or No. if the answer is no then they are cast into a basket of deplorables called “neo-liberals”.

    You know it makes sense. The party that created medicare and lately the NDIS, not to mention Family Tax Benefits, who always supported a minimum wage etc etc etc is of course, obviously engaged in trickle down economics. … Lib-Lab. Same. Same. Woof. Woof.

    One can’t be a little bit pregnant.

  35. “One can’t be a little bit pregnant.”

    Of course you pick up that analogy. Another bolean equation. You must find that comforting.

    Quantum computing is truly going to blow your mind.

  38. Andrew_Earlwood says: Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 10:17 am

    Paroti, America is already in a bad place.

    ******************************************************

    Reports like this does not help a cause of unity in the US – a country that will need very little provocation to tear itself apart.

    Trump supporters expect him to lie and it makes them want to defend him more: ‘He’s not a perfect guy — he does some stupid stuff’

    Why do Donald Trump’s supporters continue to defend him despite a long string of lies, risky decisions and provocations?

    According to The New York Times, it’s because they feel compelled to defend him.

    “He’s not a perfect guy; he does some stupid stuff,” said Minnesota man Tony Schrantz, 50. “But when they’re hounding him all the time it just gets old

    “It bothers me that he doesn’t tell the truth,” said Julie Knight of Washington. “But I guess I kind of expect that, and I expect that from the media, too — not to always tell the truth or to slant it one way.”

    The people interviewed also repeated lies from Fox News and other outlets—especially when it came to defending Trump’s decision to take small children from their parents and lock them in cages along the border.

    “Those cages and those families — that was actually filmed during the Obama administration, not the Trump administration,” said Illinois man Clayton Smith.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/trump-supporters-expect-lie-makes-want-defend-hes-not-perfect-guy-stupid-stuff/

  39. BTW, this morning I was perturbed to see my new poodle was fascinated, watching Cormann on the TV.

    I once house sat a German Shepherd over the Anzac Day long weekend and she would howl whenever the Last Post was played on TV.

  40. phoenixRed:

    On Trump supporters, at his most recent Minnesota rally a media outlet interviewed a crying woman in the crowd. They thought she was crying because of the cruelty of Trump’s forced child separations policy. But no, she was crying because he “tries so hard but everyone is down on him all the time.”

    How do you even begin to appeal to such people on rational grounds?

  41. poroti @ #108 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:11 am

    A R

    If that sort of thing catches on it is a path that leads to a very bad place.

    Or it’s a defense mechanism against fascism because the people who actively work to enable it are shunned by the rest of society rather than tolerated or worse, obeyed. And thus, having been made aware of how grossly unacceptable their actions are, have the opportunity to reconsider their future options and choose a better path.

    America is already in a very bad place. The fact that society has noticed and is taking action (even small action) on its own is cause for hope.

  44. Confessions says: Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 10:45 am

    phoenixRed:

    On Trump supporters, at his most recent Minnesota rally a media outlet interviewed a crying woman in the crowd. They thought she was crying because of the cruelty of Trump’s forced child separations policy. But no, she was crying because he “tries so hard but everyone is down on him all the time.”

    How do you even begin to appeal to such people on rational grounds?

    ****************************************************

    Exactly Confessions – and these are the people who will go rogue if Trump is evicted from office – and Civil War 2 will be on for young and old …… Vlad must be doing sommersaults in working out the American psyche better than they know themselves

  45. Andrew_Earlwood@10:07am
    Does it count? Yes it does. Why?
    Because
    1. I think Fraser called the elections very soon after he became caretaker PM unlike current federal by-elections.
    2. Even though Whitlam was dismissed unjustifiably, people overwhelmingly voted for a caretaker LNP government

  47. “How do you even begin to appeal to such people on rational grounds?”

    You don’t.

    The key is to appeal to those in the majority demographic in America to exercise their right to vote. Every time. AND (unless preferential voting takes off) always vote democrat, no matter who is on the ticket. If republicans can nominate and vote for a shit gibbon it is simply being precious to have reservations about voting for a Hilary or a Bernie or any other democrat candidate in between.

    If Americans want democrats to be ‘more progressive’ then those same said Americans have a responsibility to let said democrat politicians that they have their back and won’t just abandon them like they did in 1994 (consequence – no universal health care, no lift in the minimum wage, no mechanism for future lifts in the minimum wage) or 2010 (consequence – no lift in the minimum wage, no ETS). That’s even before we get to the omnishambles of the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections.

    Progressive America – stop gifting your country to fascists.

  48. OK. So the Gini Coefficient isn’t indicating rising inequality so that means they go and look at other ways of making the statistics say inequality is rising. Got it.

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