Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A slight narrowing in the Labor lead brings Essential Research’s two-party result in line with Newspoll’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll for The Guardian has Labor’s two-party lead down from 52-48 to 51-49. Primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full results later today. A series of findings on energy policy offer something for everybody. Eighty per cent favoured an inquiry into the contribution of power companies to high power prices; 63% thought energy companies should be returned to public ownership; 61% believing burning coal causes climate change; and 55% thought expanding coal mining would undermine efforts to address it. However, 47% thought coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables; 40% supported the call by some Nationals for $5 billion to be spent on coal plants, with 38% opposed. Thirty-eight per cent thought the government should prioritise renewables over coal, 16% thought the opposite, and 34% thought they should be treated equally.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Confessions

    I have said a few times here I am a big fan of Alannah.

    She takes no prisoners.

    And socialise with her at your peril.

  2. …anyhoo, dtt, your contention was that they were basically all Ukrainian. I think it’s pretty safe to say that a couple of them were, and a couple may have had tenuous links to the Ukraine, but Putin definitely was not the first ‘Russian’.

  3. Rossmcg:

    Yes I’m a huge fan of hers too, dating back to her time as Planning Minister where she revolutionised Perth urban design.

    I’ve heard she can drink anyone under the table and loves her booze. She has a house down here and comes down regularly but I’ve never been invited to her infamous verandah sessions.

  4. Every Thursday just before ABC TV 7pm news there is a short comedy skit…

    Biting, bite-sized comedy as Sammy J rips into the political machinations of Canberra and beyond. With an insatiable appetite for politics, Sammy blends comedy and song where he can harass and heckle the politics of the day.

    Yesterday’s was ‘Rats in the Ranks’.

    In this exclusive Three Corners report, we meet the man charged with tracking down the mythical Latham King Rat.

    https://iview.abc.net.au/show/sammy-j/series/1/video/LE1706V024S00

  6. RD

    Alannah MacTiernan

    We are not pushing to close this trade, and we hope it can resume under much more credible rules in September

    11:23 PM – 19 Jul 2018 from Katanning, Western Australia

  7. rossmcg

    “She takes no prisoners.”
    .
    She sure doesn’t. When she was a minister the first time around I commented how at pressers she looked like she had just been dragged out of a party at 4:00 a.m. . From comments posted here I have learnt that she quite possibly had been 🙂

  8. adrian,

    So sensitive. Would you react with the same angst when he rips into the Coalition, the Greens, or Hanson, SenL, etc? Doubt it.

  9. poroti:

    She frequently had ‘hair wars’ and on any given day could look like she’d been down the Capes during the passage of a cold front, when in reality she’d just walked from her car to the event. 😆

    I loved it that she didn’t give a toss what people thought about her appearance either.

  10. Confessions

    could look like she’d been down the Capes during the passage of a cold front

    That’s the look 😆

  13. Pegasus @ #2008 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 7:12 pm

    adrian,

    So sensitive. Would you react with the same angst when he rips into the Coalition, the Greens, or Hanson, SenL, etc? Doubt it.

    No because I’m fed up with the constant criticism of Labor from most of the media, and the greens. And when it comes to ‘comedy’, I haven’t forgotten At Home With Julia.

    And surprisingly, ABC news gives great prominence from formerly disgraced Barnaby Joyce’s latest diatribe against global warming.

    The ABC is a fucking disgrace.

  16. zoomster @ #2002 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 6:56 pm

    …anyhoo, dtt, your contention was that they were basically all Ukrainian. I think it’s pretty safe to say that a couple of them were, and a couple may have had tenuous links to the Ukraine, but Putin definitely was not the first ‘Russian’.

    Actually Zoomster, my intention in posting (to the extent there was a clear intention other than interest) was really to consider the role of Stalin, whom nearly everyone associates with Russia. For me growing up and i assume for most of us of about my age the term Russian was synonymous with the idea of the mustached Stalin and later on Khrushchev, plus of course the comic characters Boris and Karloff.

    Once you realise that neither were in fact Russian in the traditional sense it changes perspective quite a bit. This s obviously particularly the case with Stalin who really seemed more like a middle eastern dictator (eg Saddam Hussein) than even an autocratic European leader. How many of us even here on this blog have an image of Russians men based on Stalin and Boris (the cartoon character). I know I still sort of.

  18. Yesterday’s Mumble on Abbott and his undermining. Love how the ‘after dark’ crazy at Sky News has taken off after those idiots with SenL.

    And so he directs his offensive more and more to those at the extreme — the Sky News-after-dark consumers who consider themselves the heart and soul of the Coalition and project their own obsessions onto the general electorate.

    Current obsession number one is coal, emblematic of the fight against global-warming warriors and the wider battle against progressivism. When a chortling treasurer Scott Morrison unveiled a lump of it in question time last year, he was targeting this self-proclaimed “base.” He, too, has future leadership aspirations to consider.

    http://insidestory.org.au/careful-what-he-wishes-for/

  20. poroti

    I remember when Alannah oversaw the Mandurah rail line construction and there were lots of problems and Wal King, the head of major contractor Leighton and a bit of a darling of the business press, declared he would sue the pants off the government.

    Alannah said, see ya in court.

    All these years later, Wal King has disappeared, Leighton has been taken over and executives have been linked to bribery scandals.

    Alannah is still going.

    She is smart enough to know that live sheep exports are doomed and she will work towards an orderly winding down of the business. In the meantime steps will be taken to improve things, such as a ban on shipments in the hottest months.

    There are even Liberals who agree with her so it’s a fair chance she is on the right track.

  21. Behrouz Boochani
    ‏Verified account @BehrouzBoochani
    Jul 19

    Today marks 5yrs imprisonment of 2000 innocent children, women and men on Manus & Nauru. For us this is 5yrs of suffering and 12 young lives cruelly taken. It is countless pleas for justice ignored. For the government this is 5yrs of lying, torturing & propaganda. Such a dark day

  22. People attacked me on this blog for blaming an entire country for their behavior towards animals, but they completely ignore the cruelty of what they are doing to our own country by ignoring all the Abused Animals, Children, Refugees and the Poor.

  23. Something I posted on twitter.

    If Abbott is sabotaging the Liberals efforts to win back Mayo, Braddon and Longman. Abbott might get credited in achieving that, especially if there are sizable swings to Labor in Braddon and Longman. However Abbott is too disliked by the Liberal caucus for any return to the leadership.

    or else he is trying to sabotage the Turnbull government’s efforts to get re-elected. I do wonder what will happen if the Coalition get re-elected.

  24. … Bushfire Bill’s “boot-strapping” process.

    The end of Stage #1 is when they start quoting each other, citing “news reports”.

    Stage #2 ends when they quote themselves, citing “news reports”.

    Stage #3 ends when they don’t quote anyone, just refer to the subject as fact (e.g. “botched Pink Batts program”, “disastrous Carbon Tax”, “Labor leadership rumblings”)

  25. Labor fucking over Labor in the ACT.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/federal-labor-intervenes-in-act-factional-woes-20180720-p4zsqu.html

    Labor’s powerful national executive is concerned with the party’s preselection processes in the ACT, opening the door for the party’s national branch to step in and take over the process.

    The national executive met on Friday, less than 24 hours after a local ACT administration committee committed to investigate how a flyer making personal allegations against preselection candidate Kel Watt was distributed to members.”
    ::::::
    We have recently conducted a review into our party’s culture and processes in relation to bullying, harassment and assault and I am appalled that someone or some group of people would try to highjack our preselection process to make personal attacks on a member in this way,” he said.”

  27. Tristo @ #2023 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    Something I posted on twitter.

    If Abbott is sabotaging the Liberals efforts to win back Mayo, Braddon and Longman. Abbott might get credited in achieving that, especially if there are sizable swings to Labor in Braddon and Longman. However Abbott is too disliked by the Liberal caucus for any return to the leadership.

    As Mumble points out the only by-election Abbott faced as PM was Griffith in 2014, which saw a swing to the LNP. Therefore it stands to reason that Abbott will be using this as more whiteanting fodder in the upcoming by-elections as something to hit Turnbull over the head with if the LNP loses ground.

    It doesn’t matter anyway, because the Liberals are not going to return to Abbott. Mores the pity.

  28. If that’s big Trev in the space suit during his lunar landing, then he can’t stand for Parliament unless he renounces his US citizenship.

    That’s an American flag on his shoulder.

  29. Needless to say Ch9 News did not show any interaction between Beetrooter and AlMcT. Kind of sympathetic “his sins overlooked” stuff while he told farmers they put food on the plates for Oz people. Really? And, of course, the boos for AMcT which she duly ignored and said her piece. The farmers all looked sullen rather than angry with them sensing, I think, that Joyce’s days of being able to influence anything other than a bottle of warm milk are over.

  30. The live animal trade is on its way out. I have no sympathy for anyone who invested their money or farms in such a cruel trade.

    It was their investment decision, made on the assumption that they would never lose their social licence to engage in cruel practises.

    I am of the same opinion for people who use intensive factory farming, in a way which compromises the well-being of animals.

    I am all for eating animals, I do it most days, but I expect them to lead reasonable lives while they are alive and for them to be killed in a painless, stressless way.

    Just because I eat something doesn’t mean I want it to suffer.

    If farmers cannot start providing meat farmed with those ideas in mind, then more people will start to turn of certain products. (caveat: at least in wealthy countries).

    I want my meat and my conscience too.

  31. For those interested in NSW politics and the shite storm surrounding Daryl Maguire, I can confirm that the National Party will preselect former Liberal Party member Julian McLaren to contest Wagga Wagga at a soon-to-be-announced by-election. This is via MLC Wes Fang on the Wagga Daily Advertiser’s Facebook page.
    It opens up the juicy prospect of a bitterly fought three-cornered contest.
    Whether ‘Dollar Daz’ quits or is forced out via a Labor sponsored motion to expel him (where the Nats will abstain) remains to be seen.
    Labor has already announced that the thoroughly decent WWCC councillor Dan Hayes will be their candidate. Speculation is rife that the Libs will preselect Tumut deputy mayor John Larter.

  32. Tricot @ #2029 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 6:10 pm

    Needless to say Ch9 News did not show any interaction between Beetrooter and AlMcT. Kind of sympathetic “his sins overlooked” stuff while he told farmers they put food on the plates for Oz people. Really? And, of course, the boos for AMcT which she duly ignored and said her piece. The farmers all looked sullen rather than angry with them sensing, I think, that Joyce’s days of being able to influence anything other than a bottle of warm milk are over.

    I think most farmers admit the industry is on the way out even if they don’t do so publicly. There was one farmer at the Katanning forum who did agree with MacTiernan that the industry would likely be dead in 5 years.

    And therein lies the problem for the Liberals and Nationals. They can either be part of the transition, doing so in a way that helps industry, or they can keep clutching at the past and baying at the moon. It’s pretty obvious the WA govt knows which way things are heading and is prepared to position accordingly. In sending Barnaby to greet farmers, the coalition has essentially said it is sitting on the sidelines with their eyes closed and hands over their ears. No better than the Greens really.

  34. I would also like meat animals bred to be so dumb that they do not have much idea what is happening to them.

    This brings on the tricky area of genetically modifying animals so they feel little to no pain, and brains that do not register emotions such as fear and happiness.

    Could we end up with animals devolved to be just a bit more sentient than plants? (Though we do not know much about plants and if they have ‘feelings’. Think of that next time you mulch kale for your smoothie!)

    It would probably be easier to devolve animals than to grow muscles fibres for meat.

    But would global warming push us back to a grain diet?

    Lot’s of questions for a future I will never see. Damn I would really like to see the answers.

  35. peg

    So a Labor committee meets to try and work out how to resolve a problem and you think that’s a bad thing?

    What it seems to refer to is the practice of giving preselection candidates copies of membership lists so they can contact voters. In this case, someone has used this to vilify a particular candidate.

    A quite normal part of the preselection process has been abused. It’s only sensible to look at what’s happened and what to do about it.

    The Greens have committees which do exactly the same job – why, the candidate for Batman was referred to one only a few months ago. In that case, of course, they pretended there wasn’t a problem.

  36. Bushfire Bill,
    Many thanks for clarifying the stages of boot-strapping. Your perspicacity regarding the Orwellian tactics of our MSM is incomparable.

  37. @Confessions

    However Abbott still will be a thorn in the side of Malcolm Turnbull and the cabinet. Because Abbott is arguing for policies which some in the caucus and a lot of the base supporters like. For example; Australia withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.

  38. ‘That’s an American flag on his shoulder.’

    That’s an honest mistake, Fulvio. He mistook it for an Australian one.

  39. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    1m1 minute ago

    BREAKING: A major cyber attack on Singapore’s government health database stole the personal information of about 1.5 million people, including Prime Minister.

  40. Tristo @ #2039 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    @Confessions

    However Abbott still will be a thorn in the side of Malcolm Turnbull and the cabinet. Because Abbott is arguing for policies which some in the caucus and a lot of the base supporters like. For example; Australia withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.

    Because Tony Abbott believes that the Earth is flat and God is in his Heaven above it pulling levers, therefore, ‘Climate Change is absolute crap!’. 🙂

  41. Prof. Higgins

    Bushfire Bill has the advantage of having seen it from the inside. His ‘Bootstrap’ sequence is sooooo on the money.

  42. Tristo:

    I get the sense that Abbott’s whiteanting is falling on deaf ears, simply because nobody thinks for a second he’s got a shot at returning to the leadership while the coalition is still in govt.

    Quite simply, he is wearing out his welcome with mainstream media. Alternative media like shockjocks and Sky News however are another matter. I agree they still love him and his cronies.

  44. CFMEU
    ‏ @CFMEU_CG
    2h2 hours ago

    .@ellenmfanning’s characterisation of the #CFMEU as a “criminal outfit” on last night’s #abc730 appeared to rely on inaccurate material facts which were framed in a way that misled her audience. We’ve made a formal complaint which lays out the facts below #auspol #ausunions

  45. I don’t follow the Byzantine machinations of the Victorian chapter, but I believe this is significant

    ‘It last night emerged that Natalie Suleyman, the state member for St Albans, could be catapulted into the new federal seat of Fraser to make way for Ms Garrett.At Bill Shorten’s request, Labor’s national executive met yesterday and took over the state’s federal preselections, with a deadline of Monday for candidates to nominate.

    The future of Ms Garrett, presently without a seat in state parliament, has become the main sticking point preventing a federal preselection deal that would satisfy all factional leaders.

    Mr Shorten, the Opposition Leader, who yesterday revealed he would be staying in his seat of Maribyrnong and not moving to Fraser, has made it clear he wants Ms Garrett accommodated.

    A senior Victorian powerbroker said it was now “more than likely she will end up in a Lower House seat”.

    The powerbroker said Mr Shorten would prefer Fraser be given to his former staffer Daniel Mulino, now a member of Victoria’s Upper House.

    But if Mr Mulino is not prepared to accept the offer the seat will be given another state MP — likely to be Ms Suleyman — in order make way for Ms Garrett.

    “We might just have to hold our nose,” a senior federal MP said.

  46. Poroti,
    Oft-times, I have wished there was an ebook collection of Bushfire Bill’s longer posts. Better still would be an audiobook with BB reading them in order to capture all his nuances of tone. 🙂

  47. @Sprocket ~

    I believe Jane Garrett could get JagaJaga being vacated by Jenny Macklin. It is fortunate that the redistribution has made it a bit safer for Labor (from 4.7% to 5.6%).

    Natalie Suleyman in the federal parliament is going to make certain people froth at the mouth. Because she is of a Turkish-Cypriot background. These people will be shouting that Muslims are taking over the parliament. Given that Anne Aly and Ed Husic are from a Muslim background.

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