Miscellaneous Liberal leadership latest:
• Roy Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of 1288 respondents with two rounds of preferred prime minister question: Malcolm Turnbull versus Bill Shorten, and Peter Dutton versus Bill Shorten. The former credits Turnbull with a lead of 52% to 44.5%, while the latter has Shorten leading 59% to 36.5%. Morgan’s SMS polling doesn’t have a brilliant track record, and it has been noted in comments that the party breakdown figures suggest a sample with an excess of “others” voters, which includes One Nation. Even so, the poll is unlikely to be so flawed that Dutton’s poor showing should be dismissed outright. The demographic breakdowns are of interest in that Shorten leads Dutton by about 45% among respondents under 35, but Dutton has a slight lead among those 65 and over, which illustrates that Dutton’s constituency closely reflects that of the Liberal Party as a whole. Dutton also does particularly badly in Victoria, but better in Queensland.
• The government has referred the question of Peter Dutton’s potential Section 44 ineligibility to the Solicitor-General, Stephen Donaghue, as Labor circulates advice that a “reasonable prospect” exists that the High Court would disqualify him, given the chance. Malcolm Turnbull’s equivocal comments about the matter in Question Time yesterday angered Dutton’s supporters, given the matter can very easily be swept aside by making no move to refer it to the High Court. The prohibition on parliamentarians with a “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth” was interpreted with extreme narrowness by Chief Justice Garfield Barwick in 1975, then far more broadly by a majority of the court in the Bob Day case last year. It seems a case can be made either way as to whether Peter Dutton lands on the wrong side of the new line, by reason of a family trust that owns two childcare centres in receipt of government subsidies. Anne Twomey in The Conversation notes the government could face a welter of litigation arising over any action taken by Dutton as minister while ineligible, which would apply from three months after the time he became subject to the pecuniary interest.
• Antony Green lays out the case against an early election. On top of anything else, it is noted that the Liberals simply aren’t ready for one, financially or in terms of candidate selection. He also comes down hard on the notion that Malcolm Turnbull could forestall a leadership defeat by going to an early election (which may owe its popularity to the end of season three of The Thick of It), on the grounds that it is so obviously self-defeating as to be unworthy of consideration.
• Nonetheless, the potential for a dissolution to be requested by a tottering leader raises intriguing constitutional questions. In her book The Veiled Sceptre: Reserve Powers of Heads of State in Westminster Systems, Anne Twomey cites somewhat contrary views from Robert Blackburn, who suggests a Governor-General would be “duty-bound to reject any request by a Prime Minister for dissolution during a leadership contest”, and George Winterton, who argues a chief minister should be required to demonstrate his or her support on the floor of parliament where the matter is in doubt. Blackburn’s quote raises the question of what constitutes a leadership contest, which is distinctly different in the British context he was addressing as compared with Australian practice. Winterton’s point arose in a piece on Australian state Governors, and well describes the attitude taken by Queensland Governor Walter Campbell in 1987, when Joh Bjelke-Petersen was setting the current record for intransigence by a leader in the process of being ousted by his party.
ANTONBRUCKNER
“One thing worth noting about the “moderates” in the Liberal Party is that they have suffered an awful shock. They have been kicked around and stomped on. They now realised they are in a different party to the one they thought they were in. That will toughen them up. They will learn and they will fight back. That is basic human nature.”
——-
With respect, I think this must be codswallop. I have never been in the Liberal Party but i have spoken to Liberal supporters often. A five minute conversation with many of them makes one realise that many are despreate to “kick around and stomp on” anyone who may challenge their constipated world view.
The mythical Liberal “moderates” must surely have met a few Liberal Party members before they sat their fat priviliged arses on the green or red leather.
Fess
He has?
It shows why you shouldn’t follow betting markets… JBish and Dutton are swapping lead because of the former’s profile and the news about the latter.
I deeply regret not taking all the sage advice from contributors here to invest in Popcorn. Got home to rivetting news programmes. Can’t wait to check the BBishop video.
“AE – The hard-right is a cult and Turnbull is not an initiate. They know he makes all the right noises, but he does not have faith. He is a phoney. I think you’ve got to think about it in religious terms. They are seriously weird dudes.”
That’s my thinking as well. There is not a shred of evidence. Every position Trimble has taken as MP is on ground already flattened by the rwnjs – only to find out that they have decamped further into the lunarsphere. The NEG is a textbook example of that …
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1637 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:57 pm
Collective insanity.
I just can’t see any way Julie Bishop gets the numbers. Surely any of the more moderate votes will split between her and Morrison, most likely eliminating her in the first round.
boomy1 @ #1625 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 7:48 pm
And will it be final?
Matt31 @ #1660 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 7:10 pm
That is the question, Who gets eliminated first out Bishop and Morrison?
There I think will be our next PM. 🙁
AE – Another scenario is that, if Malcolm survives for a week or two, the moderates will recover from their shock and rally around him. They will use him to send a direct message to the hard-right that they will not be pushed around. It will be a huge F.U. to the hard-right. The party will split, of course. But that is going to happen anyway.
Vic:
I haven’t seen this reported myself, but C@t mentioned it earlier.
Sky News goes free-to-air on WIN TV on 2 September in Canberra. Don’t know about other WIN stations.
It will be handy to compare how its audience rates against the host of shopping channels.
Barney
That’s what I thought in 2009 with Turnbull-Hockey-Abbott but Abbott won.
I can see Bishop going out first round, with Dutton already on say 35 and then the Lemmings, thinking that Morrison can’t make up the gap, vote for “stability” in Dutton.
Until PM Dutton gets booted later and Abbott rides in to save the day.
Turnbull is widely perceived to be socialist or at the very least unacceptably liberal by RWNJs.
——
One of the disadvantages of speaking English.
I am convinced that there is a sort of madness afflicting the anglophone countries.
The UK and USA and now Australia are dominated by the recent belief that fantasies are real, that facts are whatever you want, that science is not a method of discovering demonstrable facts but is discardable left wing spin, that making the super rich super richer is serving the poor, that destroying public services will result in better public outcomes, that sacrificing the bioshere will make everyone better off.
Is Anglophonia a disease??
Don’t go gently into that goodnight, Mal, Dutton’s family trust being extremely suspect, not to mention his purchase of a $23M purchase of a property in Palm Beach.
DG@1658.
Dangles get’s it, he alway’s get’s it. Sorry Adrian if i was overdoing the apostrophes”’
Fess
I have followed most of today’s shenanigans.
Haven’t seen Frydenberg mentioned which I thought was kinda weird
What about the kool aid?
the punchlines were too long.
Not one of the candidates will be able to govern effectively now. This escapade will have shocked the populace.
Come election time I won’t be politely declining Liberals’ HTV materials or closing the door gently on them when they come knocking. I’ll be roundly chastising them and instructing them to disband their party. I’ll let them know that not only do I consider their politicians beyond contempt but, for the first time, I’ll be telling these everyday folk representing the party on the ground that they too are a disgrace for even showing their face.
I’ll be referring to the adjournment of the House on 23 August specifically and letting them know that I detest their contempt for the voters of Australia. That they should show shame and remorse for this day.
I won’t be aggressive or abusive about it
Solid analysis Equal.
Without scanning, so apologies, is there any explanation of Mr HIH that it was Dutton who closed the House of Reps down?
Dutton is a back bencher
For any who haven’t seen it, Fairfax has a great story on a Peter Dutton in Texas who was flooded with tweets meant for the potato and has a great sense of humour. Peter is a 30yo African-American and part owner of an appropriately named business, Soul Food Popcorn.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/african-american-peter-dutton-flooded-with-tweets-amid-leadership-crisis-20180823-p4zzas.html
Boomy Ha!
The government are taking the Kool aid.
Vic:
It might be fake news like so much of the leadership speculation has been on social media.
Fess
I just may have missed it
Observer
Without scanning, so apologies, is there any explanation of Mr HIH that it was Dutton who closed the House of Reps down?
—-
I saw Turnbull say on television that the Parliament was closed because Dutton requested it. He was just following his knee-jerk obedience to the far right, i assume.
Why didn’t Turnbull show this kind of resolve and spirit when he was PM? He has been the most gutless leader I can think of in the western world in my time.
Paul Osborne AAP
Verified account @osbornep
6m6 minutes ago
Au pair issue is now heading to a Senate inquiry #auspol #Dutton
@Dio
Its called saving your own ass.
Bit like Tony Abbott “I’ll sell everything but my own ass”.
Insiders ABC
Verified account @InsidersABC
9h9 hours ago
PM @TurnbullMalcolm will wait on advice from the Solicitor-General on whether @PeterDutton_MP is eligible to sit in Parliament before any party room meeting #libspill #auspol #Insiders
Why didn’t Turnbull show this kind of resolve and spirit when he was PM? He has been the most gutless leader I can think of in the western world in my time.
He’s like a sick cat that just curled up and died.
Zoidlord @ #1681 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 10:32 pm
Amazing how Mal is now such a stickler for process, after giving away half a billion dollars with none at all!
The Liberals are anticipating defeat….and are blaming each other. Expectancy is a powerful force. It can be self-determining. In a context where defeat means great upheaval and heavy costs, the reflex is to fight; to take all-or-nothing risks; and to sacrifice the common good for partisan gains.
It also inspires revenge games – payback. It’s impossible not to see this mayhem as being Abbott’s revenge – revenge on Turnbull and on all those who turned against him in 2015; revenge on all those who’ve declined to take him back again, to turn to him in their time of need; at a time when defeat looms and hopes were breaking down.
In the face of defeat, Abbott has inflicted this on his party and they have leapt into the fire, into mutual violations of their unity, their self-regard, their very purpose and sense of being.
This is the macabre dance of the vain, the malevolent and the phobic. They will not get over it anytime soon, and the rest of us look on, aghast, unable to look away.
Dutton gets a mention in this CNN article:
So have I got it correct that despite being very right wing, Morrison is not a monkey pod faction member?
If Turnbull does get replaced by a conservative, i expect mainstream will look back and have sympathy for Turnbull, and it will hurt the LNP for a long time, there are some votes that a party just cant win, they can only lose, thats whats happening now, LNP is losing votes ALP cant win by their own actions.
If Turnbull gets replaced by a moderate, there would be less blowback against the conservatives, but then, what would have been the point, other than revenge…
Zoidlord: if he could, he would.
“I saw Turnbull say on television that the Parliament was closed because Dutton requested it. He was just following his knee-jerk obedience to the far right, i assume”
No, blame shifting whilst buy time for his own rear guard fight back … Dutton’s camp were furious because they had minions out there saying Dutton wanted QT to go ahead, thereby forcing a lunchtime party room meeting. It seems he knows that the longer this drags out the less chance he has. Either Malcolm holds on until the weekend (and calls an election presumably) or another compromise candidate emerges.
As it turns out Dutton is probably in a pickle because of Trimble’s tactical manoeuvring today. Not just one, but two alternative candidates. Trouble mustering 43 signatures and neither Malcy or the whip likely to budge unless he does. Plus that sticky s.44 issue.
Look at Sukkar’s description of who he is going to get rid of from the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party
And who he and Bastiaan are recruiting
Broad Church?
Just watching Paul Murray Live on Sky. Some fool describing Mattheus Cormann as the most honourable man to ever enter political life (yes, ever).And outraged the Prime Ministership being held hostage by Turnbull.
These RWNJs are truly deranged, talking about Turnbull lacking honour for not gifting the job to Dutton.
The more I think of it the more I move to Morrison or the Potato.
Bishop supporters would be more moderate.
Morrison supporters would be more diverse.
The Potato supporters the rest.
I don’t think anyone would suggest that the Potato would lose the first round.
If Bishop lost the first round I would expect most of her votes to flow to Morrison.
If Morrison lost the first round then it is likely a significant number of his votes would go to the Potato.
As a result I think it would be much harder for Bishop to beat the Potato than for Morrison.
My 2 cents. 🙂
This is like a rerun of “Party Games” aka Yes Minister has anyone seen their MI5/ASIO files.
Andrew_Earlwood
OK. that Turnbull’s explanation was self-serving makes more sense.
The adjournment debate was effectively a vote of confidence. Had the adjournment been defeated, Turnbull would have been toast. Challenged by Dutton to prove his capacity in the House, Turnbull could have declined, but this could have been construed as an unwillingness or inability to protect the government.
As it is, this has put Dutton and his challenge into a kind of limbo. With the House adjourned and the party room shut down, Turnbull is calling the tactical shots, controlling the timing of events.
Dutton cannot impose himself on Turnbull.
The fact that 24 hours later they still don’t have 43 signatures is pretty damning- it really must have fizzled.
And they can try and dismiss the S44 thing, but if there is any smear on Dutton’s legitimacy, Australians will be aware we are staring down the possibility of yet another PM!!!
Three bearded RWNJs on PML, fulminating, raging, pleading for Dutton.
Branch members of Labor have a say in who leads them.
Bet L/NP members and supporters wish they could have a say. Anyone who is not ‘right’ can win then be slowly undermined and removed. Farewell Malcolm. So the party has become a party of the extreme right that will appeal to supporters of Pauline, Anning and others. Dutton is their man.
Will those who currently vote L/NP be comfortable with unlimited detention on Manus and Nauru? No pollution restrictions, less money for TAFEs, no penalty rates, plenty of visa workers to force wages down.
The reality is getting stark. Do you want your private personal rights controlled by the likes of Abbott and friends. Look and listen their statements on SSM, euthanasia reform etc
Sort it out on the opposition benches.
The most hilarious thing is that the entirety of the electorate breathed a communal sigh of relief when Turnbull took the leadership because they felt he’d be more progressive and honest than Abbott.
He has turned out to be wimp who bowed to the r-w rump and just continued the policies of ABbott.
YET THE IDIOT R-W RUMP THINKS THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE BECAUSE TURNBULL IS TOO LEFT WING?
Sorry for shouting but there are times when the illogic of an argument is alarming.
Yeah, not really seeing that mate. Looks like you are trying to put the best light on what is really dark.