This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.
UPDATE: Further findings from the poll record 24% of respondents saying Scott Morrison has made them more likely to vote Coalition, 31% less likely and 36% no influence; and 46% nominating Morrison as the more “authentic” of the two leaders, compared with 31% for Shorten. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.
Turnbull got to 51-49 then they got rid of him.How stupid was that?They go straight to 56-44.How do you think a change of another leader would go down?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/sep/23/hayabusa2-japanese-robots-land-on-moving-asteroid-in-world-first
Japanese doing well this time apparently. Good on em. 🙂
Yes, I agree. It also evoked troubling comparisons to Kevin Rudd, of whom Albanese, of course, was a major supporter during the Rudd/Gillard wars.
“Immaca, that Vanstone article was part of Kill-Bill v121.603.20144d from over a year ago.”
Ta forpointing that out. However, from what i have seen of Vanstone speaking since then she is coming across as a bit of a dick with a nasty, condescending streak .
Yep Roger, Morrison can get away with various backflips without having too many old contradictory quotes of his being dragged up. That period ends soon.
Aunt Mavis:
I actually agree.
I also feel like I really need to re-post the full sentence that you cherry-picked from, as the bit you quoted suggests I was saying something quite different from what I actually said, which was:
nath
[‘sorry Mavis, don’t know what you mean. I was talking about C@t being fierce and likely to scare sons in laws. Not sure whats wrong with that.’]
Sterotyping mothers-in law, as you did, is not a good look, in my view. As a son-in-law I aways made it a point to be obliging to them. Crossing your wife’s mother is generally counterproductive; but as cat took it on the chin, then sobeit, myself being from the old school. I would add that I think I know where cat’s coming from.
Nasty git pills – does Peter Dutton take those? Or maybe he doesn’t need to.
Mavis. I like you, but really. Stereotyping mothers in law? I’ve committed worse atrocities in my sleep.
Will people here see how long it takes the ALP under it’s rules, to ballot all it’s affiliates and members in a contested leadership ballot and then look at the statutory time for conducting a federal election.
You will then quickly understand why there can be no change in the leadership under these circumstances.
Any attempt to change leaders by the ALP would see an election called. A no brainer.
So, let’s stop all this stupid leadership nonsense and get on with it.
Hey! I think i may have been blocked over at the Nuttertruckers site. 🙂
I committed an evil sin and posted the Newspoll result in their echo chamber . 🙂
“Any attempt to change leaders by the ALP would see an election called. A no brainer.”
Yup. A point some should take on board.
Asha Leu:
No matter what the 2PP might be in the future, Labor would have rocks in their heads were they to change leaders – the R/G/R years being instructive. The Tories changed a popular leader and look at the result. Shorten will lead Labor to a decisive victory at the election.
The Libs have problems everywhere. Disgruntled Abbott and Dutton on the right and Turnbull and Bishop from the not as much right. Problems with women, problems fund raising, problems with lack of policy (the parliament ran out of work). Problems with education, climate change, wage growth.
Meanwhile the ALP have to decide what to do with the money their announced policies will save.
Anyone here know Javascript and speak English? I’ve got a problem I’d like help solving.
Interesting leak about Ken Wyatt’s office today.
Somebody wants him gone and the seat clear. Not a happy bunch the WA Liberals at present.
William,
Yep,
What’s the problem
“Somebody wants him gone and the seat clear. ”
And they want the kaos that will ensue if they try to unseat a sitting, indigenous member, in a seat that he stands at least a realistic chance of retaining?? Nah….they have enough trouble with the women thing and can possibly be stupid enough to make things worse??
Although…….:)
Cheers, South – I’ve emailed you.
imacca @ #147 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:07 pm
Apparently he made two over the weekend! 🙂
Robert Ball:
Right. I actually forgot about the new leadership rules. You’re right, a full membership ballot with multiple candidates, particularly if one was the sitting leader, would definitely not be something the opposition would want at this point in the electoral cycle.
That said, if Shorten resigned*, and only one person contested, there wouldn’t be a ballot, right? I can’t see that being especially damaging, even if a snap election was called – didn’t work out too badly for Hawke back in ’83, after all. But otherwise, yes, way too risky to consider this close to an election.
* And, again, I’m not saying this is something he should do, I’m talking about a hypothetical situation in the future where the Coalition seemed on the verge of being re-elected. I’m all for Shorten staying leader, and I think he’s doing an excellent job, as I’ve said untold times over the years.
Out of curiosity, is there any point where people here would actually support a change in leader? 50-50? 52-48 to the Coalition? 55-45? 60-40? Because I can guarantee you that Morrison would be calling a snap election as soon as some polls like that started coming out. I like Shorten, but I don’t like him so much that I’d be willing to see Labor lose the next election just to avoid the dreaded “leadershit.”
I just don’t think you can really make comparisons between leadership changes in government and in opposition. The former are (well, were) rare, and need to have very good reasons behind them to be accepted by the public. The latter are pretty common, and generally people just don’t really give a shit about them.
Anyway, I’m off to bed, as I’ve expended far more words than I ever intended to on what was originally just a side comment in a post largely just about why I don’t think Albanese should be leader.
I see there was a bit of talk here tonight about Mr Shorten moving into Kirribilli House if he becomes PM.
I wouldn’t mind hearing how a PM representing an electorate in Melbourne and working predominantly in Canberra could justify living in Sydney, rather than in The Lodge.
Also available for JavaScripting, if any further help is needed and you can put the gist of it up on jsfiddle (or similar).
And I hope everyone thoroughly enjoyed watching Piranha 3DD on Viceland. It fully earned all of its 3.7 marks on IMDB. 🙂
I wouldn’t mind hearing how a PM representing an electorate in Melbourne and working predominantly in Canberra could justify living in Sydney, rather than in The Lodge.
_________________
Shorten says that he doesn’t just represent his electorate, he represents the nation and much of its business is transacted in Sydney. Of course he uses the Lodge during Parliament but when he’s not in Canberra do you expect him to go back to his modest Melbourne home when Kirribilli is vacant? Turnbull was different of course, his house was better than Kirribilli so……
Asha, if there is only ONE thing the public is jack of, it’s political parties changing leaders.
Besides, Shorten did reasonably well in the 2016 election against Mr Actual Harbourside Mansion, bring the party back from virtual oblivion in one term. He does well in campaigns.
Albo may be the “people’s favourite”, but whoever was Labor leader they’d be crucified by News Corp anyway.
Lastly, whether Shorten went voluntarily or not, if the leadership was contested, the new rules would kick in and ScuMo would call an election instantly. I doubt whether a Labor Party without a leader would win it.
ScuMo always goes too far. He will again. For sure.
Kirribilli House is the PM’s Sydney residence, pure and simple. When in Sydney Shorten as PM would stay there.
Thanks AR, I’ve emailed you.
What a bunch of panicking pessimists we have gathered here.
One poll that is well and truly still in landslide territory and the sky has apparently fallen.
Get a grip people! 🙂
Leader change revives Coalition
12:00amJennifer Oriel
Bill Shorten appeared street smart in front of Malcolm Turnbull but looks tired against Scott Morrison.
Typical Murdoch commenter.
Leadership change “revives” coalition TPP from 2 point gap in Newspoll to 8 points. Hah!
nath @ #174 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:13 pm
Yes.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/sep/23/hayabusa2-japanese-robots-land-on-moving-asteroid-in-world-first
Moving asteroid? It would be much more interesting if they had landed on a completely still asteroid.
The only honest headline that exists at the moment .
LNP HEADED FOR WIPEOUT AT NEXT ELECTION
Simon Benson in The Australian
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/a-good-start-but-so-little-time-to-shine/news-story/6933913c636ca97197086f5733e8b1d8
The turmoil of the Liberal party leadership change might have been worth it, according to the most recent Newspoll.
Interesting interpretation! He does actually concede that..
The difference between this poll and the last is that 20 Coalition MPs look set to lose their seats, rather than 30. Seen in this stark light, the latest results are in no way heartening.
(opened for me with a workaround – if won’t open you may have to wait for a BK outline link)
And this is strange –
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victoria-election/labor-mps-fear-andrews-is-making-plans-to-quit-parliament/news-story/297192add9246c8e71bdef6356f6054c
Andrews is 46 – in the USA he’d just be getting started on his next 20-30 years in public office. Maybe the Liberals because they fear getting smashed in Victoria are wanting to plant this seed in the public’s mind. I doubt it will work.
We have a Prime Minister who lives in Sydney. Why are we discussing where the likely next Prime Minister (depending on whether Scummo can stay the course) will stay when in Sydney when nobody is even discussing whether we are going to spend another fortune on turning Scummo’s Sydney home into a fortress (a la the Harbourside Mansion) or whether he will take the CHEAPER option of using Kirribilli House when in Sydney?
BB:
I’ve heard a lot of people complain about the revolving door of Prime Ministers. I’m yet to hear a single person complain about a revolving door of leaders in general.
I basically agree with the rest that you’ve said. And with the new leadership rules – which I had forgotten about last night – a challenge would almost certainly be much more trouble than it was worth.
I think people are misunderstanding what I’m saying here. I’m not in the least bit worried about this Newspoll, nor do I think there’s any cause whatsoever for the ALP to even think of replacing Shorten. My comments about potential leadership changes in future weren’t in response to the poll, they were in response to posts others had made about the possibility of Albo taking over, my main point simply being that if Shorten did have to be replaced, there are better candidates than Albo.
I’m having trouble grasping the logic behind this one too.
Asha
I think people are referring back to Bob Hawke, who effectively transitioned his life to Sydney whilst PM.
The difference is that while Hawke represented a Melbourne electorate, he had no roots in that city, having been born in SA and grown up in WA before going to Oxford. Shorten, on the other hand, is Melbourne through and through.
One final point re leadership changes, as I ran out of time to edit it into my earlier post:
There are plenty of other reasons why a leadership change could be a pretty bad idea – the aforementioned issues with holding a rank-and-file ballot with an election due, the new leader might turn out to be a loose cannon or just incompetent, it might threaten the united front the party has maintained since 2013, there are challenges involved in potentially coming up with new directions and policies this close to an election – I just don’t think the electorate potentially being angry about Labor changing leaders in opposition is one of them.
Rocket Rocket:
[‘The turmoil of the Liberal party leadership change might have been worth it, according to the most recent Newspoll.’]
That’s certainly a buoyant comment by Simon Benson given the Newspoll of August, 12 recorded a 2PP of 51-49, evidencing that Turnbull had all but closed the gap. But I suppose the OZ felt compelled to give its readers some hope following what was a dumb move to roll Mal.
@Asha Leu
In the extremely unlikely event of a Labor leadership challenge before the election, Peter Brent aka Mumble bet for Chris Bowen to replace Bill Shorten. He even put down a bet for a Scott Morrison vs Chris Bowen contest at the election.
In my opinion the current government is simply too dysfunctional to be re-elected. My only question is how big the Labor margin of victory is going to be and the percentage of the vote will go towards right-wing populist parties. I have no doubt it would have been at least 14% if Malcolm Turnbull had still been leader. That crowd absolutely despised him as a ‘globalist’ shill.
Asha
” I just don’t think the electorate potentially being angry about Labor changing leaders in opposition is one of them.”
I agree. But Labor would be throwing away a critically important point of difference that it can and will use to sell itself at the next election. By being able to emphasise that it has had a united team in Opposition since 2013 it can demonstrate that it has learnt the lessons from RGR. The Government, on the other hand, is a complete mess – not only with three PMs in just over three years, but ongoing disruption, disunity and worse.
Apart from the fact that there is no Hawke or Turnbull in the wings (i.e. a potential leader with huge amounts of political capital already in the bank), Labor would be mad (while even within touching distance let alone leading in polls) to throw away the single most critical point of difference between it and the rabble.
Frankly, I see the slight readjustment to the Coalition and Scummo evidence that the voters were willing to give him and them a go, in the same way US voters were willing to give Trump a go, even when they strongly opposed him before the election.
These polling trends tell us nothing about the coming election. And the myth that the voters will pull back a couple of points towards the government is just a myth. They didn’t against Turnbull- quite the opposite. A protest vote will dissipate, but a vote that reflects that enough is enough will not. My guess is that a Labor TPP majority of at least workable proportions is solid and won’t change in the absence of a black swan political event.
The Australian is noted for gilding Turds when it comes to explaining away bad Newspolls. Today’s issue is another extreme example.
You want to talk about leadership change, go back to my earlier post last night where I wrote about Julie Bishop. You all missed it.
“Scummo and Co must be praying for Labor to keep Shorten. He has won all the polls for a long time so imaging the result if someone with the charm of Turnbull or Scummo were at the helm of the ALP! Heaven forbid a 60 – 40 would be a near certainty.”
Wow! Really Mr Ed? Gee you must think highly of this replacement for Shorten considering Labor has never won a federal election with two party preferred at 60% and the best they ever got was 58.2% in the federal election in 1943 under John Curtain. Don’t let the facts get in the way from some good old Shorten bashing though.
Shorten’s skill is he knows haw to run a team; not a skill many have and not a skill it would seem the majority appreciate. But then if your a rusted on Liberal are you going to have a positive view of someone who looks as if he is going to pretty much destroy the Liberal party, with a lot of help from the Liberal party I will admit.
Running a team is a pretty good skill if you want to run a government. How much the Liberals, Murdoch press and the Greens fear him can be gauged from where the kill-bill posts, articles and twitter come from.
Much ado about very little re this poll. It’s still a wipeout. Morrison’s hokey schtick won’t cut it in the lead up to an election where the government basically doesn’t have any policies, and even fewer which benefit average people. They’re gone.
TPOF
It is really irritating that we have had to pay millions for security upgrades etc. to keep PMs comfortable (Howard, Abbott, Turnbull) just to salve their little egos. Didn’t anyone tell them they are the servants of the people?
frednk
This seems to be a point that most have missed. And then there’s ‘charisma’. Let’s not pretend that Morrison has it, yet the morning report on RN made it sound as if he were god’s gift to Australia.
Attorney Avenatti hints more to come out on Kavanaugh in cryptic tweet about judge’s Georgetown Prep days
The attorney for adult actress Stormy Daniels hinted darkly that there may be more allegations about Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s high school days in a cryptic tweet on Sunday morning.
Saturday night Avenatti posted a tweet, saying, “All indications are that Dr. Ford is not alone. Buckle up – that includes you Mark Judge.
“What happens at Georgetown Prep does not stay at Georgetown Prep. #Truth #Courage #Basta,” he hinted, leading to speculation that he is seeking other students with stories to tell about the embattled judge.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/attorney-avenatti-hints-come-kavanaugh-cryptic-tweet-judges-georgetown-prep-days/