For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.
• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.
• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.
• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.
Looks like Tony Abbot is in real trouble we have a strong independent candidate
@JaneCaro tweets
@TonyHWindsor I have to renounce my British citizenship first but I would be honoured to have your help.
guytaur @ #49 Sunday, October 21st, 2018 – 5:31 am
????
I thought his ranting last night was pretty good – for the faithful.
I didnt hear him mention climate change. Or the parties lurch to the right. Maybe I missed it. But I did hear him attack those that ‘take a contribution’.
So it is no change of course – just full steam ahead; F the climate. F the environment. F any semblance of consensus politics. F the poor and the disadvantaged. F welfare. F public health and education. F legal aid. The Liberal party are here for the wealthy few (they are allowed to take a contribution AND not make one) and the rest should just be happy to have a job – any job, no matter the pay or conditions.
And he calls the ALP divisive?
Barney
Sorry. New England by election. Minority government for a little while. My mistake.
Quoted by Guytaur “@PNSlipper tweeted last night
One tip @drkerrynphelps – watch your back! Vested interests within Australia will not be happy unless you play their game. #WentworthVotes #KerrynPhelps #phelps #auspol”
We can have no doubt that the Liberal-Murdoch dirt units are on the case.
Morrison is already doing this on the sly.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-transfers-refugees-to-australia-from-nauru-amid-internal-pressure-20181017-p50a7a.html
Imagine the uproar if the ALP were doing this.
Simon² Katich® @ #52 Sunday, October 21st, 2018 – 5:38 am
Yep, it’s the thing that’s always stood out in the Liberal’s rhetoric and has become more pronounced under Morrison.
The obvious consequence is to further entrench the divide between the haves and the have nots.
@nowestconnex tweets
This great article outlines why the #WestCONnex tollroad is such an obscene waste of money and terribly backward project.
“No city in history has been able to build itself out of congestion by continually widening roads and building new motorways.”
https://www.thefifthestate.com.au/urbanism/planning/transport-choices-keeping-sydney-moving/
Simon² Katich® @ #55 Sunday, October 21st, 2018 – 5:48 am
Yep, that was partly what I was thinking of, Phelps will have little consequence.
I see it as being all about politics with the Libs trying to clear the books so they can keep the issue as a bat to hit Labor with.
Barney
As an ex union leader Phelps has great backing from the AMA. Good connections. One of the Liberal strengths in the past. This precisely highlights the division in the LNP that she is an independent and not in the Liberal party.
Insiders: “ScoMo is like The Relief Teacher… not here for long, and you get muck up while he is.”
So Phelps leads 50.75 to 49.25, a lead of 1015 votes, with 41 of 43 polling places returned and 73.55% turnout.
Why the celebrations then?
Fran Kelly… Time to take it back
OMG Fran Kelly is singing on Insiders.
And when she sings about Libs and Turnbull she says ‘we’ and not ‘they’.
guytaur @ #59 Sunday, October 21st, 2018 – 5:55 am
She is just one of six independent/minor Party Members.
No more, no less.
The celebrations are not as good. However the swing cannot be denied. Thats if Phelps does not win
Barney
You are not seeing the big picture.
Its not about one independent. Its the fact she has done such damage in the bluest of blue ribbon seats
Considering MT’s personal following, having lifted the Liberal vote in Wentworth considerably, and the traditional swing against the sitting government, if Sharma narrowly gets up Morrison will be feeling hopeful.
guytaur @ #67 Sunday, October 21st, 2018 – 6:06 am
I see and understand the big picture, it’s just your musings this morning have made about as much sense as Morrison will today in his Church.
Go back and read them. 🙂
Its not about one independent. Its the fact she has done such damage in the bluest of blue ribbon seats
___________________________
Wasn’t Wentworth usually regarded as Fairly Safe? at least until MT.
MTs following + traditional swing against sitting gov = 15%
General swing against government = 5% (as born out in recent national polling).
A general swing of 5% would not have Morrison happy. And it also seemed obvious that the more Morrison campaigned the worse it got for them.
So not as bad as the 1995 Canberra by election all things considered?
Barney
I quoted Tony Burke and it was Confessions that relayed what Phelps said.
Her musings so off the mark she has won or almost won that blue ribbon seat.
guytaur @ #73 Sunday, October 21st, 2018 – 6:18 am
That’s why you should give context to quotes posted otherwise they can come out as gibberish.
Freakin hell – the postals are making it very close!
At this rate the Libs’ll want a recount
Jenauthor:
Barney
If you are going to argue against someone saying Tony Burke said on Insiders that timing on banking royal commission came down to a period they were in minority government watch the programme first.
Then argue the point. Common ground.
The biggest shock of the Wentworth election will be if Antony Green is proven wrong 😮
lizzie
Mr Green will only be wrong if he personally got the numbers wrong. Otherwise its the AEC that got the count wrong.
The ABC is still running all the Hung Parliament comments.
Editorial must think Peter Van Onselen is right that even a closer result will still see Phelps win
Morrison presser
If Sharma wins, who will wipe the egg off the splattered faces of every Press Gallery know it all. It’s an extremely big if, but the fat lady is still singing – and I don’t mean Fran Kelly.
Morrison will stand and fight on current policies, because he knows he’s right.
Then back to Bad Bill. Geez.
Fran Kelly is not fat by any stretch of the imagination.
I know it is not Wentworth by-election thread. But here it goes. Phelps has secured the biggest swing against any government in federal political history i.e. to put it mildly, under so called Morrison leadership LNP government has suffered the biggest swing ever, I repeat ever.
The thing is Morrison and Frydenburg did not show even a grain of sand humility let alone a ounce of humility. They have displayed exactly the opposite in spades.
Confessions
Agreed. An innocent remark I expect referring to the saying. Good of you to call out the mistake given the stigma of fat shaming in our society 🙂
Always “the Liberal family” from Morrison. So warm and friendly.
Sheeeit! I calculate if remaining postals all come in, and run the same percentages as now – Sharma will win by about 900 votes … hope I am wrong!
William, if you’re not busy number crunching, what % of postals are usually returned? Do you know?
Al Pal says:
Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 10:37 am
If Sharma wins, who will wipe the egg off the splattered faces of every Press Gallery know it all. It’s an extremely big if, but the fat lady is still singing – and I don’t mean Fran Kelly.
———
I am sure William Bowe , Kevin Bonham will correct me if my under standing is outdated
as i read it , offical conceding of the seat by the political party and its political leader has the seat vacant
The liberal party has formally conceded the setoff wentworth is lost , so if the liberal party member does get enough votes
the seat of wentworth will be vacant , as there is no winner to be declared
,because it is now under 6 months til the general federal election there can be no by-election again for the seat of wentworth
Phelps’ margin is 884 …slim
Currently Phelps leads by 884 votes after 73.91% are counted as per AEC.
I love all the requests to William for obscure data. As is those asking are running some kind of complicated mathematical formula and needs that info asap.
From WB other thread.
Can Bonham win it for Phelps?
Jen
uytaur says:
Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 10:31 am
lizzie
Mr Green will only be wrong if he personally got the numbers wrong. Otherwise its the AEC that got the count wrong.
———————
Can’t agree. Like most of us Antony assumed the prepolls would be similar to the normal votes and he was wrong. He called it based on that assumption and could be caught out. The AEC isn’t responsible for that misread.
The last week’s insanity is the only thing that really put Wentworth in danger.
Scrot can’t hide from that even if Sharma squeaks in. That is all on him.
Marginal seat holders won’t want him campaigning anywhere near them.
In view of what’s coming out of the Tally Room I think I will repeat my whinge for those who might not have seen it. I certainly hope it doesn’t come to pass:
beguiledagain says:
Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 1:29 pm
The AEC have disenfranchised me.
I had assumed that in the Wentworth by-election, electors overseas could, as in general elections, vote at Australian diplomatic missions.
When I learned on Oct. 6 that this option was not available, I registered for a postal vote and was told by the AEC on Oct. 9 that it had been mailed with Australia Post.
At the close of business Friday, Oct. 19 in North America, the ballot package had not arrived. It is now 1 p.m Sydney time on election day and I will not be able to exercise my democratic right in what is probably the most significant by-election in Australian political history. The only silver lining is the fact that probably more Coalition supporters would be overseas and affected by this, than voters for the other candidates.
It’s extraordinary that in this cyber age that the AEC rely on snail mail, posting the ballot half way around the world and having the elector mail it back half way around the world. The ballot will probably arrive next week, taking two weeks go get here.
I will be particularly p….., annoyed, if Sharma gets up by one vote.
Lesson for the LNP out of this.
Keep your scrutineers in place and don’t let them walk away. I saw posts on twitter last night that LNP scrutineers had walked away.
Oh and maybe don’t cut funding to the AEC too.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/electoral-commission-aec-failed-to-ensure-the-election-ran-smoothly-20160705-gpyzxo.html