BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  2. https://theconversation.com/its-time-australias-conscientious-objectors-of-ww1-were-remembered-too-106169

    “As we commemorate the centenary of the Armistice, it is appropriate that we pay tribute to the thousands of largely forgotten people who formed a significant social and political coalition at the time of the first world war: those who fought against conscription, and against the war, including a significant number of conscientious objectors.
    ::::::
    It is regrettable that Australia has no public memorial to our forebears who campaigned against compulsory military service, and the war itself, for reasons of conscience and faith. As we commemorate the centenary of the Armistice, there is no better time to remedy that oversight.”

  3. I wonder if asking same people on state and federal voting intention polls would cause some cross contamination. I feel as if people would be more likely to give straight answers without exposure to previous poll.

  4. I see Galaxy has the majors level-pegging in Queensland federally.

    I think I’ll wait for Newspoll before commenting further.

  5. Gorks

    The few times I have been polled it has just been for federal (maybe also an NT one when we lived there). It would be strange to answer a series of questions on federal stuff and then have a whole lot of state things. I understand polling is expensive and I suppose this is money-saving, but it makes you wonder about how useful it would be.

  6. Explains Dutton’s press conference,. Their early mail on the Newspoll results must be pretty bad for them.

    Newspoll could show them ahead and he would still be frothing hate and whistling to dogs.

  11. Lucid point:

    Queen Victoria
    ‏@Vic_Rollison

    Isn’t it telling that Dutton thinks a man who has been here since a child – 20 years – is responsibility of leaders of Muslim faith, and not responsibility of leaders of his country – Australia. In other words, immigrants might live here, but Dutton sees them as outsiders.

  13. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
    The tears should be shed, the world is forgetting; we all have relatives that died, but I believe what we are supposed to remember is the utter futility of war; the jingoism that has crept in is a disgrace.

  14. After long discussions with William I am glad to announce that I will be officially named as Poll Pludger ‘Peace Keeper’. My job will be to maintain order and sanity on the blog in his absences and dispense punishment and chastisement when appropriate, including the power to ban disruptive and excessively antagonistic or troublesome contributors. That is all.

    Nath ‘Peace Keeper’

  20. Perhaps Australia needs the other Marsh as well. Coulter-nile best batsman in the first game surely could have got a run, he’d be useful about now, which is when he’d be in. Maxwell much much less so.

  27. C@t
    There were lots of injuries like that after WWI. Those people used to die but medical care could keep them alive by then. There was no medical care that could actually reconstruct them though. Harold Gillies invented techniques to fill holes like that and that is considered the birth of plastic surgery. That guy would have had a tubed pedicle flap in two stages to transfer skin up there.

  30. Bolt lists 20 untruths by MT in Q&A,

    Bolt? Factchecker? FFS. That’s it. I cant take this madness anymore. I am off to wash my hair.

  31. Diogenes @ #1727 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 9:11 pm

    C@t
    There were lots of injuries like that after WWI. Those people used to die but medical care could keep them alive by then. There was no medical care that could actually reconstruct them though. Harold Gillies invented techniques to fill holes like that and that is considered the birth of plastic surgery. That guy would have had a tubed pedicle flap in two stages to transfer skin up there.

    Oh, yes, I didn’t say it was a fantastic job such that he ended up looking normal again! It was a photo from the Queen Mary Hospital, Sidcup. If that was the one Dr Gillies practiced at.

  34. Asha Leu:

    [‘It’s not undemocratic, just flawed.’]

    Given that one of the central elements of a democracy is that elections are “fair’, would you be so kind to explain the difference between a flawed and an undemocratic system. And do bear in mind that my argument was/is based on what ought to be, not what’s extant in the US.

  35. C@t
    Yes Gillies was at Sidcup. Nowadays he would have a free flap from his abdomen which would fix him fairly well in four hours.

  37. Here we go!

    Kevin Bonham
    ‏
    @kevinbonham
    50s50 seconds ago

    #Newspoll is not good at all (with a lot of pauses between words for effect) for Morrison according to @chriskkenny .

  44. sprocket:

    [‘Chris Kenny saying NewsPoll bad news for Scotty…’]

    He’d know but blaming Turnbull’s over the top. Perhaps the Blunderbus tour didn’t work out as planned.

  45. Peacekeeper as in:

    LGM-118 Peacekeeper, also known as the MX missile (for Missile-eXperimental), was a land-based ICBM deployed by the United States starting in 1986. The Peacekeeper was a MIRV missile that could carry up to 10 re-entry vehicles, each armed with a 300-kiloton W87 warhead in a Mk.21 reentry vehicle (RV). A total of 50 missiles were deployed starting in 1986, after a long and contentious development program that traced its roots into the 1960s.

    Good to see you have the same sense of irony as the US military Nath 🙂

  48. Scott Morrison has failed to arrest the slide in support for the government, with his own approval rating taking another hit in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s tirade against those who plotted his downfall.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition falling back another point to trail Labor 55-45 on a two-party-preferred basis.

    It is the second poll in a row showing a fall in support for the government since its defeat in the Wentworth by-election and erases almost all the gains made during September and October as it began to show signs of recovery from the damage of the leadership spill.

    The Prime Minister’s initial popular appeal also continued to fade, with his approval ratings dipping further into negative territory while the margin to Labor leader Bill Shorten for preferred prime minister also narrowed.

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