Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.
Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.
Morrison’s approval rating rises when he is out of the country…
PB wisdom of the crowd, collated by L R, way too conservative this time.
@Catmomma….more like….. we know you’re not Abbott or Dutton but we’re still not voting for you.
Laocoon @ #2052 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 9:50 pm
Scott Morrison gave a speech. 🙂
Question @ #2053 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 9:51 pm
I was close! 😀
So the LNP is doing the same nationally as the Victorian exit polls.
😆
Laocoon @ #2051 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 6:50 pm
And when parliament isn’t sitting.
C@t, I tried to fix it 🙂
I think anyone who predicted 54 or above should take a bow.
I’m bowing.
It’s quite simple.
There’s no love for Bill. But that ain’t the issue.
The punters are simply waiting for the first chance they get around the nation to give the two fingered salute to the Government who toppled the PM they voted for.
And here it is
PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-11-25
Actual: ALP 55 to 45 LNP
PB mean: ALP 53.4 to 46.6 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 55
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 A different Michael
53 / 47 Al Pal
54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
53 / 47 Aunt Mavis
null / null Barney in Go Dau
52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
53 / 47 BK
52 / 48 Boerwar
54 / 46 briefly
54 / 46 C@tmomma
52 / 48 Confessions
55 / 45 d-money
50 / 50 Dan Gulberry
54 / 46 Davidwh
51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
52 / 48 Felix
54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
54 / 46 Gareth
54 / 46 Gecko
55 / 45 Goll
54 / 46 guytaur
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
54 / 46 John Reidy
60 / 40 KayJay
53 / 47 Klaus Ahlhaus
53 / 47 Late Riser
52 / 48 LongMemory82
53 / 47 Lynchpin
53 / 47 Matt31
55 / 45 nath
55 / 45 OH
53 / 47 Outside Left
52 / 48 Player One
53 / 47 poroti
55 / 45 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar
60 / 40 Question
53 / 47 rhwombat
53 / 47 Robert Ball
50 / 50 Sprocket_
54 / 46 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar
53 / 47 steve davis
53 / 47 Steve777
52.5 / 47.5 The Silver Bodgie
53 / 47 Tricot
52 / 48 Tristo
53 / 47 Upnorth
53 / 47 Victoria
54 / 46 Whisper
53 / 47 Yabba
Yes, the 55-45 to Labor is more likely 57-43 or 58-42 given the evidence that polling organisations understate Labor’s vote and/or overstate the Liberals support, as demonstrated in a series of elections in the past 18 months.
The Libs have slipped into Gillard territory and the outcome will be very similar. We can only hope Shorten will be a better PM than Abbott was. Not a high hurdle to overcome
Well a switch to Morrison did not work. Time to try Dutton.
You are evil Poroti 🙂
A humble suggestion to the Coalition. You need to “Get back in control.”
Sonar,
Yep, for a start, using the traditional, why-change-it Newspoll preference method, this poll is 44-56.
Sohar,
Yep, for a start, using the traditional, why-change-it Newspoll preference method, this poll is 44-56.
poroti @ #2066 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 7:02 pm
Dutton is too obvious and too odious. I think they need to run with either Frydenberg or Hunt.
“Morrison’s approval rating rises when he is out of the country…”
🙂
TPP???? Where the bloody hell are you?????
Shorten won a lot seats off Turnbull in the last election, despite trailing badly at the beginning of the year against the universally adored Mal. If Shorten was disliked and Turnbull was loved, then imagine what will happen to ScoMo once Shorten is finished with him.
Question,
I imagine Labor is quite happy to have its real support under-valued by polling companies.
Confessions @ #2070 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 10:06 pm
They’re already in seppuku territory. Changing leaders again – surely even these idiots are not that stupid. Or are they?
d-money and Goll are the winners!
Sonar,
I think you may be right.
News ltd Sydney columnists and Sky After Dark creeps have been suggesting on social media a change in leadership to Dutton would reverse their fortunes.
C@tmomma @ #2076 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 7:18 pm
Puffy, OH and one other got it right as well.
Sorry sohar, my tablet keeps changing your name.
Remember things are going to change as soon as Kerry’n Phelps is sworn in.
Already the LNP are in same territory with an anti corruption commission as they were with the Banking Royal Commission.
Plenty of scope for LNP to get worse polling
Happy to say that my 54/46 was too conservative 🙂
Newspoll is before the “pull factor” from the Victorian State Election and Labor’s landslide victory
This Newspoll has 60/40 written all over it
No Coalition seat is safe – including from Independents
The messages of Wagga Wagga, Wentworth and now Victoria are resonating across the Nation
Turnbull’s concession speech was highly anticipated
But Australians are even more so looking forward to the blunderbus Borrison making his concession speech which should be a beauty like Henderson blaming Labor “lies” as she has today in defending the Victorian result
The point at which I really lose it on election night next year is when Abbott goes down..
After the Essential and Ipsos this was a great bonus to show there is no sign of tightening.
Abbott has been the most rotten, destructive, dangerous thing in Australia this century.
Yes, Dutton has potential, but Abbott is a proven wrecker. In fact its his only talent.
Looking at the polls is good to while away the time, but none of them really mean much in terms of the actual election. Although they mean more than preferred PM!
I am convinced, based on decades of watching Australian politics, that those voters whose hearts are not with one or the other of the major party groupings simply will not vote for a divided, confused party over.a united party. And scare campaigns won’t make a difference – as they didn’t in Victoria – if these voters have no confidence that the party doing the scaring are capable of providing protection.
If Shorten was able to get within a few seats of knocking off Turnbull at the last election over the course of the election campaign, he will find clownshoes a total walkover.
I won’t predict the outcome, but the only thing that can save the furniture for the Coalition is if they actually started to come up with policies that were relevant to non-committed voters. Anyone but Bill Shorten is not a policy – although they can’t even execute that properly. They seem to have delivered EVERYONE but Bill Shorten.
Cud
Abbott has been the most rotten, destructive, dangerous thing in Australia this century.
Yes, Dutton has potential, but Abbott is a proven wrecker. In fact its his only talent.
_________________________________
This century? My lifetime! And quite possibly since Federation.
One dangerous (for rhe saner part of the Liberal party) in Benson’s article
The poll suggests that core Liberal and Nationals voters have abandoned the Coalition, with votes shifting again to One Nation, which recorded a significant two-point bounce to 8 per cent
That should get the after dark crowd going.
New thread.
Perth Wild Cats (who are Red).
V8 Racing Ford wins (Shell Cars, who are red).
Labor wins landslide in Victoria.
Is the country going to color?