The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.
There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.
Familiar campaign director …
“The campaign will begin Sunday morning at a formal launch at North Harbour Reserve. Anthony Reid, who worked on Kerryn Phelps’ successful Wentworth byelection campaign, will run Ms Steggall’s campaign and Louise Hislop – the former president of Voices for Warringah, one of the main grassroots groups formed to oust Mr Abbott – has been installed as operations manager and co-campaign manager.
“She’s the one,” Dr Phelps said last week. “I’ve spent time with Zali and she’s an excellent candidate. She grew up locally, has good name recognition, is articulate, progressive and fearless.
“I grew up on the northern beaches and I think Warringah has changed, particularly on social issues and there is a space to be filled by a small ‘l’ liberal candidate from the sensible centre.”
Steggall certainly reads as an impressive candidate. If she presents in 3d as she does in print then Abbott will have a real fight on his hands.
Steggall is everything Abbott can never be – young, talented, female, progressive on climate change.
He has defined himself as the voice of the past, the face of dispute. He is an obsolete brand….very vulnerable to a voice of the future.
briefly says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 1:08 am
Steggall certainly reads as an impressive candidate. If she presents in 3d as she does in print then Abbott will have a real fight on his hands.
Steggall is everything Abbott can never be – young, talented, female, progressive on climate change.
He has defined himself as the voice of the past, the face of dispute. He is an obsolete brand….very vulnerable to a voice of the future.
———————————————————————————-
And for the Libs the nightmare continues, scarce resources and precious funds being used in what should be one of their safest seats whilst the more marginals are picked off.
I think one of Abbott’s greatest weaknesses is his very combativeness. Voters are very disenchanted with fight-politics. Abbott is the living/breathing embodiment of that political genre. He has really outlived his own utility.
All the signs from Warringah are that Abbott is driving past Liberal voters away, just as occurred in Victoria. In this case, he’s stuffed. Given an appealing, electable and modernising choice of candidate, Abbott will be an electoral goner.
Few things would better serve the country than that.
Upnorth…I can hardly see the Liberals pouring $ into Warringah. If they have any sense they will be trying ensure Abbott loses.
briefly says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 1:19 am
Upnorth…I can hardly see the Liberals pouring $ into Warringah. If they have any sense they will be trying ensure Abbott loses.
———————————————————————————-
Ha you are probably right about that. Fun times ahead.
Rats ship usual….
A foreign affairs specialist who relocated to Perth last week is the frontrunner to replace Julie Bishop in the blue-ribbon seat of Curtin amid fresh speculation the former Liberal deputy leader will resign within weeks.
West Australian Liberal Party sources said Ms Bishop, 62, wanted Erin Watson-Lynn, 33, to replace her in Curtin when she decides to resign, which some in the party believe could be before the federal election. But the party’s conservative forces are opposed to Ms Bishop’s choice of a moderate and the result of any preselection contest would be hard to predict, sources said.
A potential rival being promoted by some in the party is WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief economist Rick Newnham, 30, who lives in the Curtin electorate.
Ms Watson-Lynn resigned as director of diplomacy for AsiaLink at the University of Melbourne this month and moved back to her home town of Perth, where she had not lived for 10 years.
It is understood she has secured a new role at the Perth USAsia Centre, a think tank at the University of Western Australia. The timing of her move back to Perth has fuelled speculation she is gearing up to replace Ms Bishop in Curtin, an ultra-safe seat that takes in Perth’s wealthy western suburbs.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-specialist-ready-if-bishop-jumps-ship/news-story/27e228ddec1e351def8999503fec98b2
Upnorth…Abbott has had an entirely destructive effect on the Liberals. They face a cataclysmic loss and a possible split because of his wholly baleful influences.
The sooner he’s deleted from politics the better. Since the Liberals haven’t been able to do it, the voters will do it for them.
If Steggall is as good as she seems, Abbott’s PV will slide into the 20s. He will be scrapped. The Liberals should rejoice at the prospect.
This is all confusing – apparently John Howard still has a seat and the NSW Premier lives in it. Good to see Morrison keeping a respectful distance.
“Former Prime Minister John Howard has emerged as a secret weapon in the upcoming state election as NSW Liberals prepare to launch a “rock star” campaign that puts Premier Gladys Berejiklian dead centre of their hopes for re-election.
Mr Howard, Australia’s second-longest serving prime minister, has become “a mentor” to Ms Berejiklian, who also lives in his electorate, and has been advising the party on campaign strategy.
He is part of a re-election advisory team that also includes former premier and Federal Liberal president Nick Greiner and NSW Liberal Party Campaign Director Chris Stone.
At the same time, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has chosen to “keep a respectful distance” to avoid a repeat of the disastrous Victorian election result, a Liberal source said.
With Canberra having trashed the Liberal Party brand, the NSW party is preparing a campaign focusing almost entirely on Ms Berejiklian in a presidential-style roadshow across the State.
“Gladys has been out there already, but things will definitely step up from today,” a senior Liberal source said yesterday. “While her team will be out and about, Gladys will be the rock star.
“It is going to be the Gladys roadshow. She is better than Baird on the ground. She is so good with people.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/former-pm-john-howard-revealed-as-nsw-lib-partys-secret-weapon/news-story/5caefb26284268780f812bc8e30135de
Upnorth
My sweep prediction might yet come to fruition.
@ steve davis
You might scoop the pool…..
Candidate ready for Bishop exit.
Andrew Burrell
A foreign affairs specialist who relocated to Perth last week is the frontrunner to replace Julie Bishop, if she resigns as expected.
I had a feeling in my water.
Upnorth, the battle for Curtin will be very hard fought. The WA Liberals are really diabolically reactionary, especially when it comes to their very safe seats. They are paleo-Lib.
Bishop has some influence but not enough to anoint a successor.
The peculiar thing is that some of the Liberals are reasonably personable…but their politics are dreadful. They are also utter cowards on the big issues. They know their silence and their weakness is killing them, but they entirely lack the gumption to change.
Tripe from No Cred as usual:
Mundine left, now all Labor voters should follow
Peta Credlin
If a strong and articulate Aboriginal man coming from the wrong side of the tracks thinks the Liberal Party is now a better bet than Labor, voters should listen, writes Peta Credlin
@ briefly
Re the Libs – they don’t realise that the Australia has changed dramatically over the last 5 years. Turnbull’s SSM Plebiscite ended up putting hundreds of thousands of young voters on the Electoral Rolls. Those same young voters are pissed and about to show the Liberals handling of the SSM debate, climate change and the racist dog whistles. I was concerned they might vote Green but as Victoria proved and the polling suggests they are coming home to “Mother Labor”.
Upnorth…you’re quite right. While the country has been moving on, the LNP have been withdrawing into an oppressive past.
I was on the train today for a while…very busy, talkative passengers…people speaking Mandarin, Danish, an Indian language, Indonesian, English, another European language…many nations and colours, all together in the one carriage…in groups, singletons, couples, young and old…I reckon not a single one of them would be thinking of voting for Morrison….
What are these Barnaby Joyce and Western Australia rumours? I hope, like the man himself, they’re just a joke.
bc….I’m with you. We have plenty of locally-grown crazies. We don’t need to import any extras.
briefly @ #766 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 12:33 am
And the local crazies will not take kindly to an import, especially a reject from the east. Which is why I reckon they should do it.
I have the perfect date for Australia Day. August 23rd, the anniversary of the bill enabling full Adult Suffrage for Men and Women (including Idigenous people) in the world. This was the date the bill was presented and passed in the Legislative council. it was signed into law on 18 Dec which is lousy day for AD.
Adult Sufferage for Indigenous people was taken away by Federation but for a few decades Adult Indigenous men had AS from 1858, and from 1895 women were included (including Indigenous women).
That five years of Universal Human Suffrage deserves wider recognition and Australia Day is perfect for it. As this 1895 Bill was when Labor were in power in SA expect the Libs to scream blue murder.
So there is my hat in the ring. On 23 August.
Or better still, 23 August was a Friday in 1895. Let it be the third Friday in August!!!
Kambah Mick @ #746 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 12:02 am
Hello Kambah Mick
Long time no see, I was thinking of you the other day. Probably due to the Aussie Day awards and that people like you are much more worthy recipients than bloody Peter bloody Reith and that mining bloke.
Please put me down for the next Lib to leave being Morrison with a sharp object in his back.
Had a terrific Australia Day. Mrs Growler got her Volunteers Gong among 60 local champions who also received recognition for their great community work. About 400 people joined in the celebration at a lovely afternoon Tea.
Caught up with Kate Thwaites the new Labor Candidate for Jaga Jaga who is anointed to take over from the White Queen , Jennie Macklin post the next Federal Election. She is bright, articulate and focussed on Policy. She should be a terrific new Member for Labor.
Australia Day is great day to celebrate the past, recognise the contribution of the unsung heroes of our community and an eye opener for how the future will unfold.
GG,
Well done to Mrs GG. They are the people who really deserve these gongs.
a_r: If it was transferred over the internet, there would likely be a metadata trail that intelligence agencies could follow. Even if DNC used a VPN, it would exit from US servers.
So Intelligence agencies are likely able to support or refute that argument, they have a pretty clear vendetta against leaks after their trove of tools in Vault7 where leaked, if they could prove it was hack and not a leak they should be obligated to share such information at least privately, and it would end up being the focus of an investigation.
Keep in mind that the DNC refused to hand the computer to any agencies for analysis, they had a private friendly corporation do their analysis, they didnt want a proper investigation.
GG
Great to hear you’ve had a terrific Australia Day. Congratulations to all the unsung heroes.
As each year passes I find it harder to reflect on the words of Woodley and Newton “we share a dream and sing with one voice”.
Australians are not sharing with Sydney the celebration of the colony at Circular Quay. The awards seem more and more convoluted each year as do the accompanying platitudes from many politicians and most media outlets.
The commercialism of the day is staggeringly veracious but interesting in its scope of imaginative ideas for crass symbols.
The matter of the indigenous first peoples is not going to disappear.
The utter irony of the succession of fleets arriving in Sydney, the Rum Rebellion and the amounts of alcohol consumed to celebrate Australia Day is never more apparent as the alcohol epidemic shows no sign of abating.
The January weather conditions are often a distracting aspect of the days celebrations. I wonder how many Australians adjourn to a club and play the poker machines for the duration.
The long weekend to mark the end of the Christmas break and the start of the real year ahead is much appreciated by all.
I’m glad everyone has had a good day.
Impeccable Liberal credentials, and she’s blonde as well. (Not being a sports fan, I’ve never heard of her, but that’s unimportant from down here.)
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/underestimate-tony-abbott-at-your-peril-the-man-knows-how-to-win-20190126-p50tt7.html
GG
Congratulations. Is Kate Thwaites related to John Thwaites former minister under the Bracks government?
She sounds like an excellent candidate particularly wrt her focus on policy and substance.
This reminds me of a funny story re the Bracks dream team when they came to power. Steve Bracks was seen as the affable and somewhat goofy premier who was one of those helpless males that needed help selecting ties (which was apparently true) and was popular with the female voters.
John Brumby was seen as dour and a policy ‘wonk’ good on detail.
John Thwaites was apparently popular with the gay population due to his exceptional good looks and physical appearance. As one of the younger members of cabinet he also had a following with young families.
Rob Hulls was the ‘hard man’ of cabinet. A cross between Doug Cameron and JPK. Ready to kick heads and debate policy.
Years ago when I lived in Williamstown I ran into Steve Bracks at our local supermarket. We were both sent on respective errands to get certain ingredients / products and we both ended up in the same aisle looking for the same item – mint jelly.
Despite our best efforts we failed and Steve said “I er (sigh) better ring Terry… [his wife]” and I said hang on I’ll ring my mum which I did and who saved the day. Steve was very grateful and said somewhat sheepishly that this saved him from being in the dog house for failing a simple task. We had a laugh and went our separate ways.
A lovely, gentle and humerous man. Very down to earth.
http://ethnicelebs.com/scott-morrison
Good Morning Dawn Patrollers. (Outline is not working for me today).
Matthew Knott headlines this contribution with “Shutdown surrender reveals President with No Clothes, 35 days later”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/shutdown-surrender-reveals-president-with-no-clothes-35-days-later-20190126-p50tsk.html
World champion athlete-turned-barrister Zali Steggall has called time on Tony Abbott’s “destructive and divisive” 25-year career in federal politics, launching a major bid as an independent to seize the former prime minister’s blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/four-time-olympian-zali-steggall-launches-bid-to-topple-tony-abbott-in-warringah-20190125-p50tqs.html
Bevan Shields tells us to not underestimates Abbott’s ability to win.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/underestimate-tony-abbott-at-your-peril-the-man-knows-how-to-win-20190126-p50tt7.html
But Peter FitzSimons reckons Abbott’s met his match in Warringah.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fitz-on-sunday-tony-abbott-meets-his-match-in-warringah-20190126-p50tsy.html
In a long article Anna Patty explains how questions are now looming over the legal validity of school funding.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/questions-loom-over-legal-validity-of-school-funding-20181126-p50idp.html
Jill Abramson writes that Roger Stone’s indictment shows us Robert Mueller is steaming ahead.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/26/roger-stone-indictment-robert-mueller-trump-russia
The SMH editorial looks at the use of Sydney’s desalination plant.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/desalination-plant-should-be-reserved-for-extreme-occasions-20190125-p50tot.html
Thankfully, there will be no Imperial knighthoods awarded this Australia Day. On Australia Day 2015, the then Prime Minister Abbott made his “captain’s pick” and appointed Prince Philip a Knight of Australia. The public exploded and the Australian Republic Movement’s webservers melted down. Prime Minister Morrison has now chosen the next Governor-General without any consultation. The captain’s picks continue, writes Independent Australia’s history editor Dr Glenn Davies.
https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/no-captains-picks-in-an-australian-republic,12315
The ABC is going to elevate The Drum this year.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/abc-takes-on-commercial-big-guns-with-steroid-enhanced-panel-show-20190125-p50tkt.html
There was no way 200000 Victorian households could have been warned their power would be cut during Friday’s heatwave, the energy market operator has said.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/victoria/why-power-outage-warnings-would-have-been-impossible-20190126-p50tuv.html
A bizarre stoush has enveloped an Australian energy company, with claims of mismanagement, breaches of confidentiality and misleading conduct levelled as a major shareholder tries to remove most of the board.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/misleading-deceptive-cronyism-wild-claims-fly-in-corporate-fight-20190123-p50t48.html
Thousands of people carrying placards and Aboriginal flags have swarmed Australia’s city centres as part of a growing movement to lament Australia Day as ‘Invasion Day’
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/26/australia-day-invasion-day-rallies/
With the Chinese looking to gain an infrastructure funding foothold in East Timor, here is the opportunity for Australia to test its newfound commitment to major infrastructure funding for its Pacific and Timorese neighbours. Michael Sainsbury reports.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/east-timors-dangerous-mix-of-gas-revenge-politics-and-chinese-money/
And it’s goodbye and good riddance to Nigel Scullion.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/indigenous-affairs-minister-nigel-scullion-to-quit-politics-20190126-p50tsn.html
The Pope talks in riddles and does nothing about the sexual abuse within the organisation. Of which he is the CEO.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/south-america/pope-says-weary-church-wounded-by-her-own-sin-in-reference-to-abuse-20190127-p50tw5.html
Will super-capacitors become the next generation of large scale electricity storage?
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/sustainability/melbourne-s-radical-engineers-storing-electricity-in-2d-sheets-20190124-p50tdt.html
Morrison applies the spin on the exodus of ministers.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/all-governments-refresh-morrison-says-mp-exodus-won-t-hurt-coalition-at-election-20190126-p50tv2.html
Geoff Lawson writes that the WBBL has gone quickly from a competition that had a few professionals to a serious professional sporting competition.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/given-a-fairbreak-the-wbbl-has-shown-its-true-value-20190126-p50tu0.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe and a political Australia Day celebration.
From Matt Golding.
Mark David has another slap at Morrison over Captain Cook.
An Invasion Day flag from Peter Broelman.
Zanetti on the Date.
From the US.
Will have to wait to see how ‘The Drum’ on steroids looks.
It is by far one of the best ABC programs, not least because it uses a wide and knowledgeable pool of panellists mostly without an obvious political bias, as well as some even handed (mostly) presenters – Julia Baird in particular.
If they go down the Ch7 & 9 approach with Pauline Hanson, Jeff Kennett, Mark Latham, and Derryn Hinch then it will be a dead duck.
Ex-CIA director warns Trump that Mueller is coming following Stone indictment: ‘We all know where this trail leads’
The former director of the Central Intelligence Agency suggested on Saturday that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigations will ensnarl President Donald Trump.
John Brennan on Saturday issued a blistering tweet following the indictments of longtime Trump political advisor Roger Stone.
“Your cabal of unprincipled, unethical, dishonest, and sycophantic cronies is being methodically brought to justice,” Brennan wrote.
We all know where this trail leads,” he continued.
“If your utter incompetence is not enough to run you out of office, your increasingly obvious political corruption surely will,” he added.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/ex-cia-director-warns-trump-mueller-coming-following-stone-indictment-know-trail-leads/
Trump’s closest advisors panicked he may get primaried and lose in 2020 after endless series of failures: report
After yet another disastrous week for the White House, some of his closest advisors have grown pessimistic about his 2020 reelection prospects, The New York Times reported Saturday.
“President Trump’s defeat in his border-wall standoff with Congress has clouded his already perilous path to a second term in 2020, undercutting Mr. Trump’s cherished image as a forceful leader and deft negotiator, and emboldening alike his Democratic challengers and Republican dissenters who hope to block his re-election,” The Times explained.
Trump’s sinking poll numbers are harming his appeal.
“Privately, some of Mr. Trump’s 2016 aides have said they are pessimistic about his path to 270 electoral votes after his party’s midterm defeats in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, The Times reported.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trumps-closest-advisors-panicked-may-get-primaried-2020-lose-endless-series-failures-report/
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Now THIS is a candidate who could beat Abbott:
World champion athlete-turned-barrister Zali Steggall has called time on Tony Abbott’s “destructive and divisive” 25-year career in federal politics, launching a major bid as an independent to seize the former prime minister’s blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah.
Bevan Shields may say that Abbott knows how to win, but so does 4 time Olympian, Zali Steggall.
Game on!
Alpo @ #709 Saturday, January 26th, 2019 – 11:02 pm
Apologies if I misinterpreted your description of yourself. Terms like “warmist” should probably be avoided. Some people (such as in the article I posted) use the term interchangeably with “luke-warmist”, which is a form of climate change denial.
So yes, on global warming we appear to be on the same side. But on the issue of sustainability, we are not – you are simply wrong 🙂
Hard to imagine why the Republicans would want to do this!
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/gop-delay-appointing-members-house-intel-committee-stalling-investigations-trump-family-report/
steve davis @ #762 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 2:03 am
We’re not all political fair weather friends willing to sell our soul to the highest bidder, in this case for $200000, Peta.
Unlike you, we aren’t political alley cats.
Unfortunately we do not have public banks anymore – that is not to say that we could not create one:
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/01/25/financial-secret-behind-germanys-green-energy-revolution
Zali’s website is up for those interested. She is definitely going after the moderate Liberals with her policies (particularly as shes against changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax)
https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/
C@t
She just alters reality to suit her.
Yellow vest leader with very serious eye injury from explding ‘riot control” grenade.
This will not end well in France. 11 weeks of demos, and last night they went through the night also.
I read that the crowd was estimated at 7,000 but from the visuals last night it was more like the crowds in the moratoriums so I am guessing about 20,000. From the live visuals there was at least 2 km of people marching 7 (on average) abreast. That was just in one long stretch.
By the way I think there may be some truth in the D notice stuff.
We KNOW there were large semonstrations in paris yesterday, one guy lost an eye and 200 or so were arrested. Without going over the top I would expect the BBC, Guardian and others to at least have brief articles on it.
There do not seem to be any. This seems very odd. maybe later today.
Bees just cannot catch a break:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/01/bees-are-facing-yet-another-existential-threat/
In October, the US Environmental Protection Agency extended its approval of the weed killer for use on genetically modified soybeans and cotton, mostly in the South and Midwest, for two more years. At the time, the EPA said: “We expect there will be no adverse impacts to bees or other pollinators.”
But scientists warned the EPA years ago that dicamba would drift off fields and kill weeds that are vital to honeybees. The consequences of the EPA’s decisions now are rippling through the food system.
nath @ #737 Saturday, January 26th, 2019 – 11:53 pm
I won’t mention soap duty. At. All. 😉
Morning all
GG
Hearty Congratulations to Mrs GG.
Great to hear that replacement for Jenny Macklin is a worthy One! Especially as I am now in Jaga Jaga
Zali is Abbotts worst nightmare- born and bred in the electorate, academically successful, youthful, attractive and worst of all for macho Abbott, a real sporting hero and World Champion.
His self image and meaning is so derived from his sporting endeavours, the fact she is a former world champion and Olympic medalist will really mess with his head!
booleanbach
This is why I don’t like genetically modified crops. They are designed to kill.
torchbearer
Good point. I’d forgotten that Abbott is a sportsman extraordinaire (in his own eyes).
I can’t help but think zoomster is onto something: the flood of independent candidates in Warringah helps Abbott get re-elected.
To Mr and Mrs GG, mostly Mrs GG…
Confessions @ #795 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 8:51 am
On the other hand, using the Glenn Druery method of organising minor players to direct their preferences in an orderly fashion, they might have a chance to knock him off.