The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.
There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.
Abbott’s an old man with previous convictions. He won’t poll more than 35%.
Z
Judging by the posts from the Laborites on this blog, whinging and venting 24/7 is the glue that holds them together.
Pegasus @ #1196 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 1:47 pm
Boo hoo, they made me post it! 😆
Show me one system that doesn’t have it’s quirks and flaws.
How do they elect the leader of the Greens?
Pegasus @ #1199 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 5:51 pm
Look in to that bathroom mirror. That’s you talking to yourself!
@Peg
Haha Deflections.
Change subject why don’t ya.
Greensborough Growler @ #1200 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 4:48 pm
I don’t know the first thing about forming a political party, but women like Banks, Phelps and Steggall might be a good place to start.
BiGD
As a Greens member I am able to vote in every local government, state and federal preselection, my vote being of equal value to every other vote.
How does that compare for Labor preselections?
Barney in Go Dau @ #1200 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 5:53 pm
it’s a secret bullshit.
Here’s the update as promised. It’s a week off, but such was the enthusiasm/boredom we have some early entries.
PB Newspoll-Poll 2019-02-03
PB mean: ALP 54.1 to 45.9 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 19
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 Al Pal
54 / 46 BK
54 / 46 C@tmomma
53 / 47 Confessions
55 / 45 Dave from Wagga
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
53.5 / 46.5 Frednk *permanent
52 / 48 It’s Time
54 / 46 jenauthor’s head
55 / 45 jenauthor’s heart
54 / 46 Late Riser
53 / 47 Mavis Smith
55 / 45 Player One
55 / 45 poroti
54 / 46 Rex Douglas
54 / 46 steve davis
54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
55 / 45 Upnorth
The ALP stooges getting upset to be reminded that even if they are members, they are just stooges compared to the real players in the ALP machine. Rather than do something about it they attack Peg. Weak.
Greensborough Growler @ #1195 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 2:44 pm
Do as I say not what I do!
Just the State and Federal electorate you are in, or every federal and state electorate?
Genuinely interested. Would you argue it has served the greens well, or is it part of the greens problems and the ceiling that seems to exist with the green vote.
An edited version of a speech given at Davos this week by Swedish school strike activist Greta Thunberg, aged 16.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/25/our-house-is-on-fire-greta-thunberg16-urges-leaders-to-act-on-climate
You do know how State conferences work in the ALP no? You do know that the ALP is the political arm of the union movement? You should google it.
How does Labor preselection work?
Man Baby is having another tantrum.
Rossmcg says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 3:23 pm
Poll bludger is the election channel
That about sums it up.
WeWantPaul
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:03 pm
The ALP stooges getting upset to be reminded that even if they are members, they are just stooges compared to the real players in the ALP machine. Rather than do something about it they attack Peg.
You do know how State conferences work in the ALP no? You do know that the ALP is the political arm of the union movement? You should google it.
___________________________________
Yes and that it is why the ALP will never be a genuine social democratic party because it is just an arm of the union movement.
P1: “ourselves transition from coal to gas while waiting for renewables to come on stream.” You make it sound as if we have no renewables yet, and we’re facing a long wait. In fact – as I’m sure you know – they’re coming on stream month by month and the process will continue for the indefinite future. See https://theconversation.com/at-its-current-rate-australia-is-on-track-for-50-renewable-electricity-in-2025-102903 Sure, some of the coal plants are limping, but most of them will last a while yet, and the focus of everyone with serious money to invest seems to be on building wind and solar rather than gas. So would you like to rephrase your “while waiting” remark? Is there really going to be a period where we seriously need gas? And who is going to invest in it?
WWP
Just the State and Federal electorate I am in.
Grassroots party, grass roots selection
Diogenes
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:04 pm
How does Labor preselection work?
___________________________
First you need an ethnic warlord…..
It was the Macedonians that stacked Maribyrnong for Shorten.
This Democrat Governor looks like a nice balance to the likes of Warren, Harris and Ocasio-Cortez. She doesn’t do social media at all. In the elections all social media mentions of her were apparently opposed to her, creating the impression she was in trouble. But she beat a more progressive Democrat in the primary by 20 points, and thrashed her Republican opponent in the general election 52.8% to 37% (a reminder that most people aren’t engaged with politics through social media).
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/26/opinion/sunday/gina-raimondo-2020.html
Diogenes says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:04 pm
How does Labor preselection work?
Been a member for a while so I have seen a couple. I can only talk about the house of reps.
You get flyers in the mail from hopefuls; you go to meetings to see them talk and put their case; you cast your vote. It is one of the pluses of being a member you actually get a byte at the cherry before the general public. A lot of very good people put here hand up; and a lot of good people get to cast their vote.
A Green member gets to vote for nothing; gets to post rubbish on poll bludger and that is about it; a Labor member gets to vote for someone with a chance of winning. They are involved in a process that matters.
Pegasus @ #1204 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 5:56 pm
And the consequence of all this voting is that you have a large influence on nothing at all, whereas if you had joined the ALP you would have a smaller influence on something both meaningful and effective.
Yes, I see where you’re coming from … 🙁
Recalling the recent preselection battle for McNamara i.e (Melbourne Ports).
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/branch-stacking-and-dirty-tricks-in-melbourne-ports,12097
Nowadays, there is no discernible difference between the factions. They exist only as grubby job-creation schemes for those within the factions, who would, metaphorically speaking, kill their own mother to become an MP and, from there, a millionaire ,then later, if you are halfway smart, a multimillionaire.
From Bevan Sheilds.. last September, he interviewed Peter MacDonald, who was an independent member of NSW parliament – from the seat of Manly, in the heart of Warringah
I see nth is back, hitting bum notes again
ALP / LNP 54 /46
Jack Aranda @ #1216 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:05 pm
And how much coal generation have we actually retired as yet because of renewables? Oh, that’s right – none at all. All the retirements are for reasons of age and infirmity.
This is like waiting for your ageing relatives to die so you can inherit. As a wealth management strategy, it has significant downsides. As a policy to prevent global warming, it is just another name for suicide 🙁
frednk
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:14 pm
Diogenes says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:04 pm
How does Labor preselection work?
Been a member for a while so I have seen a couple. I can only talk about the house of reps.
You get flyers in the mail from hopefuls; you go to meetings to see them talk and put their case; you cast your vote. It is one of the pluses of being a member you actually get a byte at the cherry before the general public. A lot of very good people put here hand up; and a lot of good people get to cast their vote.
_______________________________
this is hilarious from fred. Then after all the ALP members met the hopefuls they met under the magic mushroom at the bottom of the garden and sang merry songs.
Not a factional presence, a branch stack, a super delegate or an head office imposed candidate in sight!
sprocket_
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:16 pm
I see nth is back, hitting bum notes again
______________________________
Maybe you should petition journalists to stop reporting on all the goings on during ALP pre-selections. Or is it just that you don’t want it mentioned here? Or anywhere?
frednk
Spoken like a true Labor member who is anti-democracy.
A single party only! Or two!
Upwards of 30% of voters do not give either major party their primary vote.
How fortunate there is bipartisan agreement to ensure business as usual, aka the status quo, to entrench the parties’power and self-interest.
HoR proportional representation now to reflect the will of the people.
I hope this isn’t the kiss of death!
nath
In NSW those nice Sussex St. people have put out a poster explaining step one for those hoping for candidature.
NSW Labor leaves a lot to be desired. A lot. Still needs cleaning up. Maybe some Marie Kondo’ing.
I always hated the Borg. Human individuality and originality is probably a bit of a delusion, but it’s a nice one!
I think the politician that said “those that show up run the place”; was right. Labor encourages membership of policy committees. Zoomster has posted details of the work she has done; she showed up she influenced the outcome.
The Liberal’s real problem is the only people who show up also go to church on Sunday and speak in tongues.
As a Greens member I can cast a vote for senators in my state, in every election. My vote is of equal value to every other vote cast.
What’s Labor’s process.
In Singh’s preselection the rank and file votes were not of equal value.
Does this occur in every Labor preselection?
Soooo…
Will Scott Morrison travel down the road to have a chat with the GG tomorrow?
Any takers / further insights?
sprocket_ @ #1225 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:15 pm
Whatever talent you start with, you don’t win olympic medals without knowing how to win – commitment, perseverance and endurance.
She’s likely to bring out the worst of Abbott the more the campaign progresses. He hasn’t a gracious bone in his body. This time, he won’t be able to get his female opponent up against the wall and punch it either side of her head.
I relish the day he’s looking for a job as a truck driver, fireman, or onion taster.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:21 pm
frednk
Spoken like a true Labor member who is anti-democracy.
…
To spend you time doing stuff with no consequences really is your choice. I’m sure your bright enough to work out how the system works.
nth, the ALP factions are able to bring together multiple streams of Australian society, workers and progressive thought into coherent groupings. Yes, there are regular conflicts within factions and amongst personalities, however this is expected with a collection of passionate advocates.
Look at any successful democratic party globally and you will find the same.
https://insidestory.org.au/for-whom-a-bellwether-tolls/
In Australia, the system advantages the two major parties.
Easy to be ‘successful’ under those conditions.
Kingston normally is. We had wall to wall photos of her embracing indie candidates down here during the State election. I don’t think any of them got up.
Confessions @ #1232 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:22 pm
Not sure what you mean Confessions. As on the ground reporting goes, she’s good and keeps her distance. I can’t see that she would have any bearing on the campaign, but interested in any thoughts.
I had no idea Mundine was a member of the Liberal Democrats last year.
Nath @6:01
“It was the Macedonians that stacked Maribyrnong for Shorten.”
I have made a personal vow not to engage with Nath, but every now and then a
flash of comprehension comes to me.
Very early in Nath’s appearance early last year, I asked him why he had such a personal animus against Mr. Shorten. His reply was such a farrago of evasions that I shrugged my shoulders , and made the vow I mentioned.
But now my guess is the nath, or someone near and dear to him was outmanoeuvred in the squalid turmoil of a preselection battle!
If I’m wrong, I’ll just shrug my shoulders, and move on , lamenting a spurious flash of inspiration