Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Meanwhile, this month’s (bring back) TONY AWARD must go to the political insight of Chris Kenny at the Smearstralian, yes the same man who predicted a Drovers Dog could win the Victorian election for Coalition, who offered up this pearl of wisdom in the last week of the month.

    “the Coalition, if it chooses the right policy battles during a period of reasonable economic progress, has a chance of winning. Especially if it embraces strong and justifiable negative tactics that warn of the perils a Shorten Labor government could bring — a tried, proven and, you would think, mandatory political ploy that was inexplicably eschewed at the last election”

    What do you know- scare mongering works ? Gee thanks for that hot tip Mr Kenny. The members of Warringah have rattled the tins on your behalf and come up with a shredded Get Up T shirt for your drover’s dog. Moron.

  2. I’ve been flat chat all day and missed most news services … so, can someone please explain to me the justification for the now Independent Julia Banks running in Flinders, rather than Chisholm?

    I heard only “unfinished business”, but that makes so sense. Surely she has a much better chance of winning – as an Independent – in the seat where she is the sitting member?

    Or … does “unfinished business” refer to some argy-bargy she has going on *personally* with Greg Hunt?

  5. Bowen reminds me of a super aggressive car salesmen who steals customers off colleagues. He is inextricably linked to the idea of ‘selling’, even if he does it badly. He always reminds me of a character in Glengarry Glen Ross.

  8. I think it can be assumed that Hunt was the one that was ‘at’ her during the spill. That much is obvious. She would only be going after a former colleague if there was personal stuff behind it.

  13. When the Liberals have tried something really complex, they haven’t been able to convince each other, let alone anyone else. That’s why Malcolm lost his job, after all.

    I wouldn’t be as generous as to say that the idea ‘science is a thing’ counts as ‘something really complex’, but I suppose we are talking about relativities and the brain dead here so the point stands.

  14. Re: Banks in Flinders. Of course it all depends what kind of swing is generated, but Banks needs to cobble together enough preferences to get over the ALP and get 2nd spot, which will be harder if there is a general swing to Labor.

  15. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/31/ireland-hard-border-brexit-backstop-good-friday-agreement

    A heartfelt plea from Ireland:

    The Brexit backstop – this fundamental need to avoid a border, rightly articulated in stark, if belated and obvious terms at Davos by the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar – is about so much more than tariffs and trade. It is about our identity.

    The writer argues that ongoing peace in Ireland requires there be no border. It won’t continue with a hard border or a soft border, only with no border, such as can exist inside a customs union.

    Those who want to tear up the backstop, or feel gleeful at the prospect of no deal, should recall that the first shots of the Troubles were fired at customs posts such as Newry, requiring the RUC, and later the British army, to protect officials, civilians and military alike.

    Arguments emerging in the UK are casting the Irish as the villains.

    …Ireland’s supposed intransigence have resurfaced in the UK’s political and media discourse. This process has been accompanied by astonishment in some quarters that Ireland, arguably England’s oldest colony, is a saboteur, reprobate or badly behaved underling…

    On present course it won’t end well.

    the return of a border, even one that starts out as soft and virtual, will – like the customs posts of old – invite a regulatory and security mission creep that will disrupt lives and livelihoods and prove tempting for some who are intent on taking us back to darker times.

    backtracking on the backstop is a mistake, and a dangerous one at that.

  24. Thanks for the image Zoidlord. Morrison’s response isn’t a surprise, but the article on the Greens is more provocative. I found this link: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/nsw/bob-brown-held-talks-with-greens-mps-about-splitting-from-the-party-20190131-p50ur8.html

    The discussions, which were continuing among the MPs as late as last December, advanced to the point that designs for a party logo and website, as well as party branding as “Green independents”, had been canvassed, sources told the Herald.

    Describing an internal party document:

    “There is a considerable ideological divide between the party [on] ideological communism and ecological realism,”

    Poor timing.

  25. chinders, Banks has precisely zero chance of retaining her seat of Chisolm. She only won it narrowly on the back of a particularly nasty smear campaign against unionised firefighters in Victoria, which unfortunately labor didnt react particularly smartly to. This election it will easily revert back to labor.

    As for Flinders, I guess she figures she’ll follow the current trend of conservative independents challenging safe, high profile liberals in progressive electorates. Good luck to her. My only hope is that she causes the conservative vote to splinter so far as to help labor get over the line.

  27. Seems there’s trouble in Qld LNP, with serious,”disgusting” behaviour (alleged by an 18 year old girl) on the part of a state MP.

  30. [‘Couldn’t agree with you more Mavis, although I’m bog Irish myself my family converted to atheism in the 1960s. ‘]

    We wish you well in said endeavor – stirring, that is.

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