Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:
• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.
• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.
Story from a friend:
___________________________
As for stories — we have ‘whitetail deer’ in our garden thru the
non-winter months, and their piles of pellets, too… but here’s a
true story; I knew the family…
A Danish medical doctor practicing – and well ensconced, with his
family – in a town on the west Greenland coast was ‘invited’ by the
officialdom to relocate in a small village on the east coast.
Their young son, who had become quite accustomed to his previous
circumstances, told me that he’d had a lot of trouble in the new
surroundings — his new teacher was a French anthropologist doing
fieldwork, who communicated in a mixture of French and broken East
Greenlandic [it’s a different language to West Greenlandic] which his
new classmates seemed to understand, but which was totally opaque to
him. There were other strange elements which contributed to giving
the little boy a case of severe depression.
His new classmates were kind, well-disposed, and one of them offered
to help — “We have just the thing to help you get along,” he said.
“We call them Smart Pills.”
The pills looked like large vitamin tablets, brown, and a bit chewy.
The little Danish fellow accepted them, with some misgivings, but
after a few weeks’ regimen he rebelled. “I’ve been eating your “Smart
Pills”, but I don’t feel any smarter — and, besides, I think you’ve
been feeding me Reindeer shit!”
“But, see,” said his little classmate, “You HAVE got smarter!”
ItzaDream @ #130 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:35 am
Most Public (& Private) Hospitals in NSW do.
Does anyone know where I can find a summary of the Venezuelan crisis? How it reached this state, in particular.
Thanks in advance.
Greensborough Growler @ #183 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:18 am
You do have a point there. 🙂
Though I think ther Teal Green appellation can also apply to those sort of people. So, not Deep Green, or Red Green, but Teal Green.
C@tmomma @ #145 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:52 am
Thanks. I have just joined GetUp with a monthly donation.
autocrat says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 11:27 am
Regarding Zali Steggall, she seems exactly the sort of person able to bump fool Abbott out of his seat. Just out of pure spite, I really hope she does it. However what happens after that?
My thought is that once the dust settles the lure of the bigger office and slightly larger pay packet of a shadow minister may prove too much to resist. She just seems too much like a Liberal.
The Lib-loyal ranks want their party back. If they have to purge the ranks of current MPs to achieve it, they will do it.
As an aside, I had dinner last night with my local MP – Labor – who had spent the day door-knocking a Lib-leaning area in their electorate. The report was that Lib-loyal voters are still fleeing the Liberals – that they are receptive to Labor and they are curious, friendly and appreciative.
Lib fear campaigns are just not working for them. In fact RW-troll-politics is eating away at their core support.
Victoria @ #199 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:35 am
People get pissed off about lots of things. But, those people will have the option of voting early to salve their temper.
I said earlier, that Morrison should go as early as possible. Parliament returning to pass the mini Budget of tax cuts is good in theory. But, without a majority in either House, what could possibly go wrong for the LNP?
I just had an ad come up on my tablet, translated into Vietnamese, from the Australian Government warning people not to try and come to Australia in a boat.
Sorry I don’t have a link. 🙂
Victoria says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 11:35 am
GG
i know. but generally the public get damn well annoyed about this sort of stuff. If Morrison called an election to take place on a long weekend, it would not augur well for him and his team at all.
my own experience, is that people get hugely pissed off with their own loved ones who have their wedding on a long weekend. Imagine a federal election. it aint gonna fly
___________________________________
I’m not too sure these days, with so much pre-polling and absentee voting going on. You actually have to turn up at a wedding – you can’t post it in!
If she still believes in trickle down she is part of the problem and not part of the solution. Yeah that she believes in science, and doesn’t like discrimination makes her better than Abbott, but it is harder to find a lower bar than that.
Wonderful if these rwnj like Phelps and Sharkie take on and beat dyed in the wool science denying hate merchants in the LNP just they don’t get to be ‘left’ or even ‘center’ they are far right wing, just not insane.
I got sucked away yesterday and never got to see if greens get to vote in all state and national preselections, or just for seats they reside in, or the seats of the branch they join.
WeWantPaul @ #207 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:44 am
Peg said, just their own seat.
WTF?!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/convicted-for-leaving-water-for-migrants-in-the-desert–this-is-trumps-justice/2019/01/27/9d4b3104-2013-11e9-8b59-0a28f2191131_story.html?utm_term=.ab375ff4b1a2
WWP
Abbott has been an utter pox on this country. Anyone who gets him out of Parliament is better than him. And anyone who thinks the solid majority of Warringah voters will vote for someone whose position is antithetical to their views is as off the planet as Abbott. The problem for Abbott is that he no longer represents the views of his electorate, not that he doesn’t represent your views or my views.
C@tmomma @ #203 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:38 am
What it might tell us is that Environment Policy is now mainstream and that moderates from both sides of the aisle are prepared to work together for better Climate Change outcomes rather than the partisan bitchery that has blighted our politics for too long.
It basically makes the Greens more irrelevant than ever before if the mainstream Parties can get on with good environmental outcomes rather than be dependent on the treacherous virtue signalling Greens who never saw a good environmental policy they could support.
WeWantPaul @ #209 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:44 am
You might have to ask Pegasus. But I vaguely remember something about being able to vote in local, state, and federal pre-selections, and I think meaning the member’s local, state and federal electorates. So for the Senate that would mean the entire state, but HoR only the local member, and so on. ??? Sorry. Vague memory only.
Save me 5 seconds and post the link.
So it looks like parliament will be returning on the 11th of feb as planned by selfish Morrison and the election will be held in May as he as been saying it would be….
WeWantPaul @ #209 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:41 am
What we’re seeing with all these Lib-lite Independents is the beginning of the Liberal Party split.
The momentum will build and the remaining wets will disappear from the Liberal Party of Australia.
Maybe it won’t be long until we see an Independent get a ministry portfolio in a minority govt.
Greensborough Growler, that was my first thought on reading about Steggall. Inner city affluent Greens are going to lose a plank.
Wayne, I think Don has some vitamin pills.
I can also report much lower than usual expressions of mindless nationalism this Australia day. It was a pleasant surprise.
TPOF @ #210 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:46 am
I don’t think it’s quite as absolute as that, but it would be very difficult to be worse. 🙂
Late Riser
54/46 to ALP please
Rex Douglas @ #206 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:39 am
I’ve been with GetUp since 2007 and have been making a monthly donation since they were targeted with legislation, which ultimately didn’t get up ( 😉 ) in the parliament.
Late Riser @ #220 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:53 am
Yep, cheap. Only local, organic ingredients.
Wayne
55/45 to ALP
nath
Er, ‘the cuts’ were actually introduced (by Howard) long before 2012. What happened in 2012 was that those single parents who were being ‘grandfathered’ were put on the same scheme as all other single parents.
So when you say you want to ‘reverse the cuts’ do you mean returning the funding to those who were being grandfathered out (and who, by definition, would no longer be on the payment anyway) or reversing the cuts introduced by John Howard?
Labor’s reviewing the whole of the system. This makes sense, because there’s usually more than one payment those on benefits receive, and what matters to someone getting the payments is the total benefit they receive, not just the size of one. For example, I know many students on Youth Allowance. They say the basic YA is sufficient to live on, but what kills them is rent. They ‘d prefer to see the rent allowance increased rather than the YA as such.
I also don’t see what’s wrong with expecting single parents to seek work, once their children are of school age. Both people in a couple receiving benefits are expected to seek work – the government doesn’t let one off so that they can look after the children – and if one gets low paying work, the other is still expected to keep looking.
So a fair system wouldn’t just support a single parent not looking for work, but would apply that same principle to one member of a couple as well.
pheonixRED:
[‘I read an article yesterday : “Stone is too untrustworthy for a prosecutor to ever rely upon.”’]
Yes, I saw that reported on CNN; however, Cohen’s a pathological liar too, yet Mueller accepted his co-operation. In some ways, Stone could be a more effective grass than Cohen give that the former has been close to Trump for some forty years. If Stone goes to trial, he’s stuffed. He’s all bravado now, but when the door to his cell closes, he’ll be like all crims who go to gaol for the first time: scared shitless.
Player One:
[‘I can’t believe there are still people who haven’t opted out of this shambles ‘]
The feedback I get is there’s nothing to worry about. I respond by saying that unauthorised access to the database could result in, say, blackmail (one party may have a communicable disease), life insurance companies gaining access, and so on. My doctor opted out, as did a number of his colleagues, as have I.
still think it will piss people off and cause a backlash for those already on the fence. By all means, Morrison should call an election for the 9th March
Agree completely. The club of eligible Australians ‘worse than Abbott’ is very very small. However, the Sharkies, Phelps and this new one, are not heros of the center or the left. They are far right. They need to be called far right, because if a new political force build around them it is still a very very bad political force, and if the real center and the left have not been challenging them as dangerous right wing, because they are replacing even nastier more dangerous right wingers then they pretty much get to move the overton window so they are ‘center’ and anyone to the left is the dangerous extremists.
In some ways they are a bigger threat to ‘Change the Rules’ than Abbott.
If this is right it is critical that they be painted, from now, where they belong and that is in the dust bin of history with failed trickle down economics. They are not ‘sensible’ or ‘center’ they just are not as evil and as insane as the current LNP.
Crazy as it seems I kind of want Abbott to win his seat, close result but no Cigar for the closet Lib Steggall.
After the election Abbott will continue to wreck and divide the Tory party. His RWNJ media supporters will get behind him.
The Tories won’t stand a chance to beat a united Labor team.
don @ #1391 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 12:01 pm
…actually, poo pills may have some effects on mood (via an interaction between gut microbiomes and neurobiomes) and are being seriously considered. Not sure if reindeer (or local roo) gut microbiomes would be an advantage. Wombat microbiomes, on the other hand….
Maybe an election on a Victorian long weekend would reduce the vote in the state that likes the Coalition least. A minor piece of voter suppression. After all, the Coalition have form – remember Howard’s attempt to close the electoral rolls early.
BB; hard to find good information on Venezuala, but basically there where allegations previous elections where not ‘free and fair’, with the main opposition boycotting it.
There seems to be a division of power between two houses, national assembly and congress, each think they should have control, and both claiming the constitution is on their side.
I find it hard to accept that the party that boycotted the election can be put in charge, no matter how bad the election was run.
rhwombat @ #233 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 12:10 pm
Wombats give you the shits. Who knew?
Upnorth,
I’m with you on the Abbott-Steggall Liberal Party stoush. Abbott by a whisker preferred between the two, but anyone else would be better than either of them.
Wayne, may I ask what precipitated your apparent conversion, you having formerly been in Morrison’s camp?
@ Sohar
Agree
Agree WWP 12:05
I’m in 2 minds about Abbott/Steggall.
I think if Steggall wins AND the L-NP decided to stop listening to nutter’s, people like Steggall would soon join the L-NP and make them electable again. A shift to traditional Liberal Party would be good for climate policy (or the appearance of it), but might not so good for reversing the rise in inequality we have seen over recent decades. It’s the inequality that feeds the recent rise in nationalism. In some ways Abbott, as a figure of mirth, is less of a threat.
It has been good to read the anecdotal experience of PB has been a lessening of the flag-cape brigade. Perhaps the nationalism fad is getting old and we can look forward to more sensible times?
The benefit to the community of a candidate like Zali Steggall is that should she win, she will not be anywhere near as vindictive as Tony. The same happened when Cathy McGowan replaced Sophie Mirrabella. They may be far right in many aspects but that vicious streak is mostly absent.
[Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 11:38 am
Does anyone know where I can find a summary of the Venezuelan crisis? How it reached this state, in particular.
Thanks in advance.’
CHECK OUT THIS ONE MOFO:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-tragedy-of-venezuela-1527177202
Mavis Smith says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 12:16 pm
Wayne, may I ask what precipitated your apparent conversion, you having formerly been in Morrison’s camp?
———————————————————————————-
Wayne just got back from Damascus.
I want Abbott out if Parliament. He can continue wrecking the Liberals from there. Maybe he could join Peta on Sky After Dark. Possibly also get a shift on 2GB and write an unhinged weekly piece for The Australian.
“Wayne just got back from Damascus.”
Don’t tell Peter Dutton.
Steve777 says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 12:19 pm
I want Abbott out if Parliament. He can continue wrecking the Liberals from there. Maybe he could join Peta on Sky After Dark. Possibly also get a shift on 2GB and write an unhinged weekly piece for The Australian.
———————————————————————————-
Point taken Steve777 – the Libs might even roll him out at election time like they do to the last PM to lose his seat.
I dunno if it’s correct to describe Phelps and Steggall as ‘far right’. The far right are not only almost always climate change sceptics, they tend to be reactionary nationalists; to echo white supremacist/racist opinions; to be homophobic and sexist. They are also usually authoritarian, are often clappers, and are Trumpy on economic, environmental, migration, refugee and geo-political issues.
Clearly, Phelps is none of these things. Likewise, Steggall does not seem like a reactionary.
In fact, they are the physical, living-breathing embodiments of the “elite” against whom the FR wage ideological war. Phelps and Steggall in cultural terms are exactly what the FR are not.
Wayne is doing my head in! 😆
Steve, if the Liberals come to their senses they will ignore SAD and 2GB. Indeed SAD and 2GB might even have to recalibrate to traditional Liberal values (the new base). That could make it very difficult to do any tax reform. The ALP will probably have to wait for the next senate even if things go well.