Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for the year produces a much stronger result for the Coalition – but another poll finds them struggling in Queensland.

The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).

There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.

The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).

The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,918 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 57 of 59
1 … 56 57 58 59

  2. E. G. Theodore @ #22712 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 8:44 pm

    Nicholas: “That is a thoughtless, anti-intellectual proclamation. Lacking intellectual curiosity is unhealthy and self-defeating, even if you don’t notice it (because you lack the self-awareness to do so).”

    I think you mean vicious , rather than thoughtless. And unlike your ad hominem attack I attacked no person, only “bullshit artists”. Viciousness was intentional

    In relation to economics, here is what Norbert Weiner—one of the leading mathematicians of the 20th century but presumably to you an ‘anti-intellectual ‘ (whatever that means)—had to say on Economics and in particular Mathematical Economics (God and Golem, Inc, 1965):
    “Thus the economic game is a game where the rules are subject to important revisions, say, every ten years, and bears an uncomfortable resemblance to the Queen’s croquet game in Alice in Wonderland, which I have already mentioned.Under the circumstances, it is hopeless to give too precise a measurement to the quantities occurring in it. To assign what purports to be precise values to such essentially vague quantities is neither useful nor honest, and any pretense of applying precise formulae to these loosely defined quantities is a sham and a waste of time.

    Here some recent work of Mandelbrot is much to the point. He has shown that the intimate way in which the commodity market is both theoretically and practically subject to random fluctuations arriving from the very contemplation of its own irregularities is something much wilder and much deeper than has been supposed, and that the usual continuous approximations to the dynamics of the market must be applied with much more caution than has usually been the case, or not at all.”

    Economists had selected mid-19th century mathematical physic as their framework (for no apparent reason other than it was seen to add rigor) and shoehorned both their theories and subsequently the data into into it, obliterating data that that failed to conform.

    Either Krugman or Stiglitz calls this a preference for Beauty over Truth…

    Now this is changing in the past twenty years (as data finally become available so as to enable Mathematics to be used). Probably first in Cambridge but now very strongly in MIT and (of all places) Harvard. However there’s no excuse for 70 years of bullshit misuse of Mathematics.

    As to Sociology it is apparently similar. Sociologists understand even less Mathematics than Economists, but whether that makes it worse or better (I suspect the latter) I’m not sure.

    And as for Political Science, that wanker Lomborg was investigated by the Danish Academy of Science in relation to scientific fraud. They found the charge proven by the standards of any science at all, but then found that Political Science was not science in any sense, and not only permitted deliberate untruth but in fact encouraged it, since as far as they could see the only point of Political Science was to make statements irrespective of truth or falsity and generate a reaction. That is, the PS process is:
    – say some bullshit
    – get a reaction, and assiduously avoid engaging with it
    – move on the next bit of bullshit, and repeat
    Bullshit by definition, which reminds me of something, but I can’t quite put my finger on it

    Anti-intellectual enough for you?

    Bravo.

  3. GG

    Another question if I may. A financial one this time. I have a relatively small interest only loan with the ANZ bank at the moment. It currently sits at about $40,000. I have the option of increasing it to as much as $175,000 should I choose to do so, which I am thinking of doing. Servicing it will not be a problem.

    What WOULD be a problem for me would be if the bank suddenly converted it to principle and interest. In light of the fallout from the banking RC, what do you think the chances are of that happening? (Steve Price made some comment tonight on 3aw about the banks ‘calling in’ interest only loans).

  5. Not much love from Tony Wright this evening..

    “Ministerial responsibility has rarely been defined satisfactorily. John Howard tried early in his term and lost seven ministers in less than a year for various sins relating to conflicts of interest and expenses and travel rorts.

    The current Australian government, however, has turned the concept on its head.

    With fast-gathering regularity, ministerial responsibility appears to have all but decayed to no responsibility.

    Daily now the nation is assaulted by revelations of conduct that would get the cold shoulder in a shearer’s pub.

    It is as if Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s homespun motto, “have a go and you’ll get a go”, has transformed in the hands of some of his team to “let’s have a go at having a lend of the mugs”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ministerial-responsibility-in-canberra-appears-to-have-all-but-decayed-to-no-responsibility-20190219-p50yul.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1550654723

  6. ScoMo has promised the grandees of the Liberal Party that he’ll keep it together until tomorrow (which it now appears he will do).

    Then he’ll fudge up a surplus in April.

    And it will all be sweetness and light.

    Or so The Plan goes.

    Across the board – Cash, HelloWorld, Paladin, Hockey, GBF – they’re relying on the standard of proof that demands a confession (or else it’s just He-Said/She-Said). So, there won’t be any confessions. At all. Prove it motherf*ckers, or get outa ScoMo’s face. He da Fair Dinkum Man.

    Or so The Plan goes.

    It’s about this stage – when it’s about to all turn to shit – the Grandees start wondering why they haven’t sacked him.

    Again.

  7. With fast-gathering regularity, ministerial responsibility appears to have all but decayed to no responsibility.

    I see again that deep-seated belief in self-regulation. The belief is buried so deep as to be oblivious to the holder, like that fish asking “What’s water?” And of course to those of us not swimming in it, “Self-regulation is no regulation.”

  8. Darn @ #2798 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 9:04 pm

    GG

    Another question if I may. A financial one this time. I have a relatively small interest only loan with the ANZ bank at the moment. It currently sits at about $40,000. I have the option of increasing it to as much as $175,000 should I choose to do so, which I am thinking of doing. Servicing it will not be a problem.

    What WOULD be a problem for me would be if the bank suddenly converted it to principle and interest. In light of the fallout from the banking RC, what do you think the chances are of that happening? (Steve Price made some comment tonight on 3aw about the banks ‘calling in’ interest only loans).

    I have some information, but not all. Is this an investment loan or an owner occupier?

    I will assume your I/O loan is secured against a property. Lenders advance money against the value of the property. So increasing the loan through a top up is always an option provided the LVR is within bounds and you can service the loan.

    This is only important because interest only gives you a repayment respite for the term of the interest only period.

    This is because the term of the loan means you will need to increase payments on the loan to pay it off in the contracted period (Usually 30 years). of course you can refinance.

    Personally, I believe interest only loans for owner occupier loans is a lousy option. It assumes house prices go up and your economic circumstances improve in the interim.

    I’m covering a few threads here. But, i hope that helps.

  9. Anti-intellectual enough for you?

    Yes, I think you doubled down on your anti-intellectual theme. It wouldn’t be out of place at a Trump rally. You also exhibited culture cringe, and grandiosity in spades.

    Enjoy the dopamine hit from wallowing in your ignorance of entire disciplines that you know little about.

  11. the sad facts are that Corbyn and his clique have betrayed the working people of the UK. Corbyn has led the people on and is now on the cusp of handing them over to the Crazy Branches of the Tory Party

    Serious question, what is it that is driving this opinion. The evidence is really inconclusive, and more consistent with a very significant split in the UK around brexit.

  12. I have always thought it a little bizarre that the “solution” to one of the greatest racial crimes of all time was to establish a racially based state – it has always seemed to me to have been a gross failure of political imagination and a retreat into ancient mistakes.

    Yeah it’s an incoherent concept. Who knew that establishing a state along exclusively ethnic lines might lead to dehumanization and barbaric mistreatment of people from other ethnic groups? What were the odds of that happening?

    Israel has the right to exist as a multi-racial state, not as an apartheid state.

  16. These days ministerial responsibility has been replaced by hold out unless the heat starts impacting on voting trend.

    When the LNP are in power at least, when the ALP was in power they were held responsible for the actions of independent contractors, so there was kind a ridiculous superpowered extended Ministerial responsibility applied to Labor.

    Obviously it isn’t all the LNP having the Fox / Sky / News sewer of racism and hate support wholeheartedly everything you do upto and including torture and crimes against humanity, you might well get the idea you are above the law. As this most corrupt and incompetent Govt ever has.

    but it isn’t a ‘same – same’ thing, it is very much LNP really really bad, ALP held to very high standard thing.

  17. Re “The Holdout”… the media won’t touch a story unless there’s a confession (neither will the AFP or the DPP lately, but that’s another story – except if you’re Peter Slipper, Craig Thomson, Roman’s lady friend, that ATO Deputy Commissioner, or Bill Shorten).

    So, faced with virtually incontrovertible proof of malfeasance, the minister who can look an Estimates camera straight in the eye and claim “Persecution!” (bonus points for unshamefacedly demanding an apology), everything fades away in a confetti cascade of ellipses.

  18. Thanks for your response GG. Just to further clarify, the loan is an investment loan and is for a maximum of $175,000, based on the value of the property. At present I have only drawn down $40,000 of it, but am considering increasing that by about $100, 000. But I am a bit spooked at the thought that the bank may suddenly change it to principle and interest, which would probably result in me having to sell the property into a falling market.

    Would you recommend that I speak to the bank about it before going ahead with the increase?

  19. Israel has the right to exist as a multi-racial state, not as an apartheid state.

    So long as it is a law abiding State, it is not currently it is very deliberately and specifically a rogue state. Those that label every criticism of Israel as anti-Semitic are doing are real real disservice, they use the tag so stupidly and excessively they risk being ignored when they use it against real actual anti-Semites who should be called out. It is a hideously stupid own goal playing out in the US right now.

  20. briefly
    says:
    Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 8:45 pm
    nath, the sad facts are that Corbyn and his clique have betrayed the working people of the UK. Corbyn has led the people on and is now on the cusp of handing them over to the Crazy Branches of the Tory Party.
    __________________________________________
    So you’re unhappy with the direction the leadership of the Labour party has taken and consider them no longer the legitimate champions of the working class. Sounds like you are a Green to me!

  21. nath, as you’d be aware, the Libling Chapters (UK) have had control of the Labour citadel for some time. They’re wrecking it. The past occupants are fleeing in their boots before the rooves and walls come tumbling down.

  22. briefly
    says:
    Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 9:45 pm
    nath, as you’d be aware, the Libling Chapters (UK) have had control of the Labour citadel for some time. They’re wrecking it. The past occupants are fleeing in their boots before the rooves and walls come tumbling down.
    _________________________
    So I’d take it that you’d be with the DLP back in the 50s?

  23. Bevan Shields
    ‏
    Verified account

    @BevanShields
    Follow Follow @BevanShields

    Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young and about 30 Labor/crossbench MPs have come to hear Kelly O’Dwyer’s final speech to Parliament, but only a little over half the government has turned up. Very poor form #auspol.

    Some were in estimates etc but Sheilds says only about 60% of the HOR team showed up. No, the Coalition don’t have a problem with women [leaving Parliament]

  24. sprocket@9:06pm
    Ministerial responsibility of LNP ministers. Then why O why ipsos poll is 51-49 in favour of ALP?
    It should be at least 55-45 in ALP’s favour. Is Costello putting pressure on Ipsos? Or is it a reflection of Australian people as BW suspects which is very hard for me to believe (according to his opinion ALP may loose the fed election because of Medevac bill)
    As per daily revelations The current set of ministers are one of the most corrupt and inept lot.

  25. WWP

    Those that label every criticism of Israel as anti-Semitic …
    __________________________________

    This is a line that is run all the time by critics of Israel far more than by defenders of Israel. Certainly, there are some entities that conflate the two when defending against criticisms of Israel.

    But it seems to me that these days anyone who wants to criticise the Israeli government invokes this line as some sort of talismanic force field, so that whether or not they stray into anti-semitic tropes they are somehow protected.

    It isn’t as simple as that. There are many legitimate criticisms of the Israeli state and they are expressed in ways that focus specifically on behaviours and policies. But there are also criticisms that intentionally or not import classic anti-semitic tropes – especially around money and allegations of Jews sticking together and the Jewish lobby (as though it is qualitatively and morally more objectionable than other ‘lobbies’).

    If you want to criticise Israel, that’s fine. But take care. Casual anti-semitism only reinforces the worst traits of the Israeli government and makes it less, not more, resistant to genuine and honest criticism.

  26. Ven

    Then why O why ipsos poll is 51-49 in favour of ALP?

    ___________________________

    At this precise point in time – and taking into account all the evidence (as opposed to correlations that are being played as causation) – the most likely explanation is poor polling practices. When we have new polls from Newspoll and Essential we will have actual evidence to indicate how seriously we can take that Ipsos poll.

  27. nath, you’d be quite mistaken to think that. I was in my sandpit learning how to socialise with my neighbours in the 1950s. I’ve never been a grouper. I’m way too cheerful for that.

  29. Darn….. maybe I can help a bit with yr financial inquiry….. to increase yr debt from $40k to $175 k is a decision that has to be weighed up carefully……. the banks have already tightened up with interest only loans it is in my opinion a practice that will continue…….. I suggest you evaluate your loan side by side interest only and principle plus interest….. look at if you can operate with the worse option if so for how long… also how would you be effected if interest rates rose because now they are historically low…….. just my thoughts hope that helps

  30. In regards Interest Only Lending you would first need to revisit the Terms and Conditions of the Letter of Offer

    What Review recourse does the bank have because the Letters of Offer will include “out” Clauses for the bank and other Covenants such as the Loan to Valuation Ratio and Interest Cover requirements?

    Is the facility subject to Annual Review?

    It is concerning if a borrower is unaware of the full ramifications of the Letter of Offer they have accepted

    This is the fault of the borrower not the bank

    No doubt Interest Only Lending is Under the spotlight and correctly so (there are circumstances where Interest Only Lending is appropriate such as a business operating from owned premises and where profits are more appropriately directed to the requirements of the trading business)

    In regards Principal plus interest repayments, the term of the borrowing is central (over 25 years is different from over 5 years or 10 years and that comes down to purpose)

    If the bank transitions the advance to credit foncier (P+I repayments) over what term and therefore what will the instalments be?

    And if the meeting of those instalments over the term of the lending causes hardship it is preferable to make the decision to repay the loan before the bank takes action with penalty interest rates and charges including recovery charges to those acting for the bank plus a mortgage auction if it comes to that course of action by the bank

    Plus there are the Personal Covenant Clauses in the Mortgage document

    If a further draw down is requested what is the purpose and does that purpose result in a further income stream?

    At $40,000- and $170,000- the figures are small – but the property may be in a regional town so the LVR may still be high – and this will be a consideration also

    Investment is a long term strategy

    My view has always been that you repay personal debt at soonest – and that the most advantagous time to repay debt is when interest rates are low because more of the instalment is coming off principal than going toward the interest cost

  31. TPOF @ #2822 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 9:04 pm

    WWP

    Those that label every criticism of Israel as anti-Semitic …
    __________________________________

    This is a line that is run all the time by critics of Israel far more than by defenders of Israel. Certainly, there are some entities that conflate the two when defending against criticisms of Israel.

    But it seems to me that these days anyone who wants to criticise the Israeli government invokes this line as some sort of talismanic force field, so that whether or not they stray into anti-semitic tropes they are somehow protected.

    It isn’t as simple as that. There are many legitimate criticisms of the Israeli state and they are expressed in ways that focus specifically on behaviours and policies. But there are also criticisms that intentionally or not import classic anti-semitic tropes – especially around money and allegations of Jews sticking together and the Jewish lobby (as though it is qualitatively and morally more objectionable than other ‘lobbies’).

    If you want to criticise Israel, that’s fine. But take care. Casual anti-semitism only reinforces the worst traits of the Israeli government and makes it less, not more, resistant to genuine and honest criticism.

    TPOF

    I find that comment offensive and outrageous. Some of us have the brains to distinguish between racism and criticism of Israel and you do yourself a disservice by suggesting that ANYONE on this blog has expressed racist comments of the nature you suggest.

    indeed it is as stupid as saying that because i oppose what Australia is doing to people on Nauru that I am anti Australian.

    Israel is behaving towards the Palestinians as the very worst sort of colonialists at best and at worst a reincarnation of the Warsaw ghetto. I say the state of Israel NOT even its people. No one who comments on Palestine has EVER made those racist comment you suggest.

    Yes they ARE around and in blog commentary I find them. Indeed one site that I go to had so many that it had to close down its comments section (or move to a heavily moderated one). Of course the Palestinian issue inflames many and in a sense gives licence to the frank racists BUT that is an argument for addressing the issue, not calling those who comment racists.

  33. DTT

    I didn’t say anything of the sort that you suggest. Discussing further with you is accordingly pointless. I’ll leave the rabbit hole to Alice.

  34. Darn @ #2813 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 9:34 pm

    Thanks for your response GG. Just to further clarify, the loan is an investment loan and is for a maximum of $175,000, based on the value of the property. At present I have only drawn down $40,000 of it, but am considering increasing that by about $100, 000. But I am a bit spooked at the thought that the bank may suddenly change it to principle and interest, which would probably result in me having to sell the property into a falling market.

    Would you recommend that I speak to the bank about it before going ahead with the increase?

    Unsurprisingly, I’d suggest you talk to a Mortgage Broker. A MB will give you a range of options, be focussed on your needs and come to you.

    This is not a tout!

  35. to read any thing into to the iPos poll is way too premature…… such a big swing in a short period? as other’s have mentioned there may be problems with the sample taken and therefore the results. The belief that the border protection scare is biting is counter intuitive…….. I feel that the environment now is very bad for the libs and nats and any poll will over estimate their vote…….. they face coping with a nsw election loss as well…… I also think the scare campaign on Franking tax refunds and border protection are over the top and will be counter productive for the liberals

  36. I am so sick of the Israel-Palestine fetish.

    It has no direct relevance to Australia.

    Our two main parties are only obsessed by it because they are servants/clients of religiously obsessed foreign powers.

    I think the middle east is the coal in a global warming world.

    Best left buried.

  37. “With fast-gathering regularity, ministerial responsibility appears to have all but decayed to no responsibility.”

    True enough. In the previous Liberal regime Amanda Vanstone was nicknamed “2nd Amendment”. Should we nickname Cash “5th Amendment” or should we stick with “minister for whiteboards”?

  40. DG, Labour and the Tories are competing for the Leaver vote. The IG are going after the Remainer vote, which is larger. They have no real competitor. They might just do it. Labour and the Tories can become branches of UKIP.

  42. swamprat @ #2833 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 9:33 pm

    I am so sick of the Israel-Palestine fetish.

    It has no direct relevance to Australia.

    Our two main parties are only obsessed by it because they are servants/clients of religiously obsessed foreign powers.

    I think the middle east is the coal in a global warming world.

    Best left buried.

    Swamp

    We have been focusing on Brexit recently and like it or not the 8 leavers have made it clear that anti semitism is a “reason” for them leaving. They too seem unable to separate criticism of Israeli actions and anti semitism.

    Recently it came close to home with Malaysia banning an Israeli swimming team.

    it is hard not to consider Israeli influence when thinking of US affairs. Most obviously of course Jared Kushner and the Trump shift to Jerusalem, but US engagement in Syria, Iraq, Iran and even Libya were vry much with the encouragement of Israel.

    So sorry Swamp it does matter, especially should the US attack Iran and we get dragged into the conflagration.

  43. DtoT

    “So sorry Swamp it does matter, especially should the US attack Iran and we get dragged into the conflagration.”
    …………..
    Of course, we must be as wise as serperts, but as harmless as doves. 🙂

    We must be aware of issues but honest and removed.

  44. Spence, I know. However the splitting of the majors on the issue of Brexit is potentially very significant. We’ll soon see. There is a constituency that supports Remain. If it’s seen to be viably represented anything could happen.

  45. briefly

    “There is a constituency that supports Remain.”
    ———

    Well the 2016 referendum had a 52% to leave to 48% leave, so yes there is about a 48% constituency.

    In England, however it was a bit lower.

  46. dtt equates the actions of Israel with the atrocities of the SS in Warsaw. There is no doubt whatsoever that this is an anti-Semitic defamation. dtt routinely strays into racist stereotyping. They are shameless.

  48. “briefly @ #2844 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 9:50 pm

    Spence, I know. However the splitting of the majors on the issue of Brexit is potentially very significant. We’ll soon see. There is a constituency that supports Remain. If it’s seen to be viably represented anything could happen.

    Numbers game. My first question was “How many Tories need to split before May’s governing coalition is in minority territory?”

    Searched and found: https://www.smh.com.au/world/uk-election-follow-it-live-20170608-gwnm0c.html

    326 seats needed for majority
    after the election
    Conservatives 318 + DUP 10 = 328
    Labour 261

    currently
    Conservatives 315 + DUP 10 = 325
    Labour 253
    IG 11

  49. And I would not be going near a Mortgage Broker for a raft of reasons including those identified at the Hayne RC

    A Mortgage Broker is not the lender – they merely point you to a lender for a (trailing?) fee (given the lender then approves the application)

    You do not leave such decisions to others in my view

    You do the work yourself and come to your own decisions based on your individual requirements

    Simply, you talk with the Organ Grinder (the lender) not the monkey (a Mortgage Broker)

    And a lender should approve eye to eye

    The reason being that one of the fundamental considerations in respect to any lending is intent

  50. Swamprat

    I am so sick of the Israel-Palestine fetish.

    It has no direct relevance to Australia.

    I wish it were so that this had no direct relevance to Australia.

    Until the Israel/ Palestine question is settled fairly, we can have no peace in the rest of the world. The current government of Israel is not treating the occupied territories fairly, and this leads to a lot of unrest and violence from those who want to see their compatriots fairly treated.

    I am Irish (a Catholic atheist), and was brought up under the shadow of the “Troubles”. As a protestant Belfast-man colleague of mine (and very good friend) said, in the early 1990s, well before 9/11, “At least the Catholics believe that suicide is a mortal sin, so they do not have the same abilities to cause havoc as Al Qaida insurgents”.

    1) The violence from the Irish troubles was not able to spread past the British Isles, because the technology and networks did not exist.

    2) Those who are concerned about the fate of the Palestinians – many people of different types – now operate on a world stage – including the few violently inclined ones.

    3) I cannot believe that the fricken DUP got the balance of Power in the last British Isles election, and will now be able to put back the hard border between the Republic and Northern Island.

    4) The obvious answer is just to have Northern Ireland part of the EU customs Union – no need for a hard border – but DUP says no! DUP says that N Ireland cannot be treated any differently to the rest of the UK. Sticking to their principles? I don’t think so. Abortion is still outlawed in N Ireland, unlike the rest of the British Isles.

    5) Time for us all to remember we are all part of the human race. I have loathed nationalism since I first encountered the idea in early high school, and I still take that position.

Comments Page 57 of 59
1 … 56 57 58 59

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *