After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
Regarding the senate… Assuming the 53-47 roughly holds the ALP will not get full control. What precisely will be the Greens position on anything the ALP try to bring to the table re Climate Change and treatment of refugees is of great interest. Will there be a DD? It will be a tricky parliament for the Greens and I am not sure the current leader is the best suited for it.
Speaking of billions, how can it possibly cost 1.4 billion to kick start Christmas Island anyway?
poroti says:
Monday, February 25, 2019 at 10:25 am
Boerwar
I wonder whether Bludgers who extolled the GJs earlier in the piece might now have some pause for thought?
So you smear the whole movement because some @$$@#! F’wits have decided to tag along ? Well I guess the earlier attempt by the ‘establishment’ to smear them with ‘RUSSIA’ didn’t work so let’s try GJ= antisemitism. How ‘Macron’ of you.
___________________________________
Pretty much like antisemitism. Smear a whole people because Netanyahu’s regime follows a @$$@#! F’wit path.
Boerwar @ #426 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 9:00 am
No. They’re right to protest wage stagnation and tax breaks for the rich.
And wrong to call for RIC’s (Brexit is a clear enough indicator of why you don’t open up foundational questions to decisions by a 50% plus 1 margin in a popular vote) and for Macron’s resignation (if not Macron, you get Le Pen).
And to the extent that any individuals in the movement advocate racist things, they’re wrong about that too. However that doesn’t make the movement itself racist.
ItzaDream says:
Monday, February 25, 2019 at 10:37 am
Speaking of billions, how can it possible cost 1.4 billion to kick start Christmas Island anyway?
______________________________
Lots of Liberal chums to funnel money to in the dying days of this kleptocratic kakocratic government
GJ’s?
What are you two on about? Gloria Jeans? Gary Johnson?
Retrial likely given the length of MacDonald’s sentence – maybe less so for Maitland.
MacDonald has another trial coming up anyway.
NSW Libs will be pleased at the timing of this all resurfacing.
I wonder if Jones will publicly support MacDonald again like he did in the past .
What are the GJs?
Oh! OK. Got it.
Urbanwronski writes
https://urbanwronski.com/2019/02/25/hmas-chum-bucket-almost-scuppered-in-a-week-of-sabotage-and-self-destruction/
Any comment, GG
Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the Archbishop of Munich, has told 190 church leaders gathered in Rome that procedures to investigate and punish paedophile priests had often been ignored. “Files that could have documented the terrible deeds and named those responsible were destroyed, or not even created,” he said.
…………
See, “a populist witch hunt” according to GG
People wondering about McDonald’s conviction being set aside should calibrate their outrage.
From the SMH article: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-nsw-labor-minister-ian-macdonald-and-union-friend-john-maitland-s-convictions-thrown-out-20190225-p51002.html
A jury had earlier that year found Mr Macdonald guilty of two counts of public misconduct over the lucrative deal, while Mr Maitland, who had made $6 million from the sale of shares relating to the deal, was found guilty as an accessory.
From Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vales_Point_Power_Station
In November 2015, the NSW Liberal Government sold Delta Electricity, which at that time owned only the Vales Point Power Station, to Sunset Power International for $1 million. In 2017 it was valued at $730 million, and is expected to make energy entrepreneur Trevor St Baker a billionaire.
For more see: https://www.smh.com.au/business/vales-point-power-station-privatisation-put-before-auditorgeneral-20171024-gz6xno.html
I’ve said it before – one of the key enemies is Trevor St Baker. HE’s the driver behind the push for HELE coal plants (e.g. at Mt Piper).
Still on the Seanate, after the last election Labor and the Coalition did a deal which saw Labor get a long term at the expense of the Greens and Liberal get a long term at the expense of Hinch. Given the usual fine balance in the Senate between left and right, it’s not difficult to imagine a future Labor government being continually being frustrated by one vote.
Boerwar, briefly
Before this ‘wow’ poll put a spring in my step last night I had spent the weekend getting very depressed by listening to reports from Europe on the BBC. In particular what elements of the Gilets Jaunes were getting up to in France.
Since visiting the old East Germany in recent years where the far right Alternative für Deutschland is very strong especially around Dresden I have been contemplating the forthcoming centenaries of all the worst events of the 1920s 1930s and 1940s.
On the weekend I started to wonder whether the far right groups in the UK and Europe are going to do more than just ‘celebrate’ some of these centenaries – maybe they are going to almost re-enact them. I saw that picture of “Juden” painted on the window of that Paris bagel shop – is Kristallnacht going to come earlier than its 2038 centenary?
BREAKING NEWS…. BREAKING NEWS….
Paladin has just announced plans to enter the Climate Change Market.
Past Business Government dealings indicate that Paladin could quickly become the favoured Partners to tackle the future proposed Climate Control Industry.
We are expecting a Press Conference from Kangaroo Island as soon as the Director gets back from the beach.
Judgment
http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/nsw/NSWCCA//2019/32.html
Not my area but a misdirection by a judge to a jury rather than a problem with the evidence may be more encouraging for retrial for the DPP.
Presumably both MacDonald and Maitland will be bailed promptly.
WeWantPaul @ #458 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 9:40 am
French people.
Thanks shellbell.
Don’t get me wrong – he may well be guilty, but the magnitude of the public loss should be put in perspective.
Jeffemu
I think Paladin have moved their Australian office across the Backstairs Passage to Yankalilla Bowling club. There has been an unexpected windfall there which will help build new offices – and it is still very close to a beach.
deleted – commented on old post.
Itsa Dream
“Speaking of billions, how can it possibly cost 1.4 billion to kick start Christmas Island anyway?”
Budget:
$100 million to refurbish centre
$100 million for staff costs over a year
$100 million for PR and media
$100 million management fee
$1000 million profit
So Morrison plans to recycle Tony Abbott’s bucket of sh*te and give it a fancy new name..
..should fool the punters!!..
a r says:
Monday, February 25, 2019 at 10:55 am
WeWantPaul @ #458 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 9:40 am
What are the GJs?
French people.
_____________________________
Plus ring-ins.
ItzaDream
Yes 1.4 billion dollars to reopen Christmas Island!!! Isn’t that the cost of one of this Sydney Staium constructions? Or the new Royal Adelaide Hospital ?
Mates rates perhaps?
Good Morning all. A bit busy today, but I’ll be back later to harvest any Essential Poll guesses, which currently stands at
PB-Guess: Essential 2019-02-26
PB mean: ALP 53.9 to 46.1 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 40
On hearing about the Climate Solutions fund this morning it occurred to me that our government operates as if it is powered by a room full of “too-clever-by-half lawyer-squirrels”. And this mind set is Malcom Turnbull’s true legacy.
Examples include:
Turnbull’s NBN Multi-Technology mix
Turnbull’s snap DD election
Turnbull’s $444m gift to GBRF to keep the GBR rating
Morrison’s “It’s a money bill” to stop medevac.
Morrison’s “Well in that case we’ll send ’em to Christmas Island”
Morrison’s Climate Solutions Fund ($$$mates?)
This is just what sprang to mind, I’m sure there are more.
Back later. 🙂
Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the Archbishop of Munich, has told 190 church leaders gathered in Rome that procedures to investigate and punish paedophile priests had often been ignored. “Files that could have documented the terrible deeds and named those responsible were destroyed, or not even created,” he said.
…………
Just because a lot of clergy were caught child raping. And just because their deeds were covered up by the church hierarchy. And just because the senior leadership of the organisation did nothing about the child raping, in fact moved perps to new pastures and destroying evidence, you should not condemn the whole church.
Did I hear that Paladin was going to turn KangarooIsland into a forest island and open an Ewok theme park as a carbon sink with a $2bn injection of government funds?
nRAH was $2.5b
What’s Gina been up to?
The billion bucks to renovate the CI detention centre puts the two billion for climate change over 10 years — 200 million a year — in perspective.
Must be gold plated taps in the Marble spas on CI.
After the Paladin contract all ScumMo financial deals should be questioned. It costs taxpayers $1200 per night per detainee on Manus and Nauru.
Somebody should ask ScumMo how much taxpayers would save per detainee flying them all to Singapore and putting them up in the Sheraton?
A good story from the USofA and a reminder of how different it is. Look who set the minimum wage.
.
.
NYTIMES.COM › Annotations
The $15 Minimum Wage Doesn’t Just Improve Lives, It Saves Them
MATTHEW DESMOND FEBRUARY 21, 2019
On a historic Tuesday night in May 2015, the Emeryville City Council voted to raise the city’s minimum wage to about $16 an hour by 2019. It would amount to the highest minimum wage in the country, outpacing San Francisco’s and Seattle’s. Emeryville’s minimum for workplaces with 55 or fewer employees jumped to $13 an hour in 2016, then $14 an hour in 2017, then $15 an hour in 2018. On July 1 of this year, it will reach $16 an hour for all businesses.
https://outline.com/CW9tKr
All these billions being thrown about by ScoMo don’t entice me to vote LNP, it just makes me more worried about their hidden acts. Cui bono?
1. The original GJ protests were righteous. I have no criticism of them, of the need for them, or of the motivations of them, or of the initial behaviours. As I have previously written, this was part for the recent French tradition of political protests. No smears. No anti-semitism. No problems.
2. The original GJs achieved some, at least, of their short term objectives when Macron caved.
3. The GJ protests have now been hijacked by Le Pen folk. I have seen some of these operating directly, first hand when I was in Paris. They are your standard far right race hate, race baiting, anti-muslim, anti-semitic arseholes. Does their presence reflect on all GJs? You can’t ignore their presence. And you can’t ignore the political consequences.
4. The GJ protests have most probably been hijacked by the Far Left as well. But I have no evidence for this.
5. My main point is that the notion that the GJ protests are, politically, a straight-forward fight for justice between the oppressed masses and the evil Macron Government, is both simplistic and unreal.
6. IMO, what it most likely comes down to is this. The Le Pen nasties, at least, have hijacked the GJs and the electoral result is, IMO, most likely to end with Macron being replaced by Le Pen.
7. This is NOT smearing the original GJs with accusations of being anti-semitic.
Bushfire Bill at 9:21 am,
Yes, the past week shows the press gallery still don’t need much to lapse into “the government is back in the game”. Compare and contrast the number of resets they allowed Gillard. I suppose the Ipsos offered an excuse, even though many of them qualified it as “bouncy”.
One notable exception was Tingle, who didn’t seem impressed by the boats rhetoric at all.
I’ve just received a letter in the mail from Mackenna Powell who is the Nationals candidate for Wagga Wagga in the upcoming NSW election.
Included is a card for $250 to be used towards fuel and travel costs which I’ll get if I vote for her. Nothing about the LNP having to win the election first, just if I vote for her! Very generous. Whilst I’m very tempted, although $250 won’t get me far with my Queensland travel plans in June (lol), I think I’ll give her a miss. I’ve never voted LNP in my life and I’m not going to start now.
Am I forgetting things now that I’ve reached 70 or is this a relatively new phenomenon – the promise of something but only “if” the party concerned wins the election? Surely that would be a given, however even then it’s no guarantee that it’ll actually be implemented.
I am hopeful, however, of a promise given by Mr Shorten in a recent email about Medicare funding for comprehensive heart health checks especially as it includes management as well as prevention/detection.
Why hasn’t Dutton commented on the thugs who beat up two police officers in Melbourne?
Boerwar
Hijacked ? No, just tagged along . The ‘Le Penites’ have however hijacked the attention. Unfortunately most of the media reports are from Paris. I suppose is saves them bothering to travel.
am
Is that a bribe? Is it against the Electoral Act?
Holden Hillbilly says:
Monday, February 25, 2019 at 8:51 am
If ALP wins with 53-47 and has a primary vote of around 40% there is no way they will have a majority in the Senate. Even with greens help they will need votes from independents.
—
Kevin Bonham conjures a scenario where the ALP can form an Alliance with the Greens and Centre Alliance to form a majority of 39 in the senate without the need to deal with the likes of PHON or Cori Bernadi.
Thursday, January 17, 2019
What Are The Prospects For A Labor-Green Senate Majority?
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/01/what-are-prospects-for-labor-green.html
ScoMo has no shame. CC is all Labor’s fault, obviously. 🙁
‘poroti says:
Monday, February 25, 2019 at 11:24 am
Boerwar
Hijacked ? No, just tagged along . The ‘Le Penites’ have however hijacked the attention. Unfortunately most of the media reports are from Paris. I suppose is saves them bothering to travel.’
The Le Pen mob are strong in some of the regions as well. Whether ‘tagging along’ or ‘ hijacking’ is an interesting question. I noted that some of the original reports were of GJs who were upset at the violent stuff that was being carried out under the GJ ‘brand’.
It is always going to be an issue in France that broad protest movements have great difficulty controlling Left or Right extremists who (ab)use these movements in the quest for extremist outcomes. Part of the difficulty is that some groups of the extremist players are pan-EU, well connected and very mobile. The instruments of control inside broad protest movements typically, IMO, are too weak to deal with the extremists effectively.
Just who owns just what becomes an interesting issue.
Fran Kelly begins at 6am with ABC news, then news commentary by her.
By 6.15am, no mention of Newspoll. So I sent her a txt, pointing this out (0418 226 576) and at 6.25am she said “some people are enquiring about Newspoll” and gave the result, with very brief commentary “Newspoll remains unchanged”.
So I sent her another txt saying that she ought mention the contrast with Ipsos which she and others were calling as the big comeback for Coalies just a week ago.
Haven’t listened since 7.15, three quarters of an hour later, but no mention till that time.
lizzie @ #492 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 11:30 am
I wonder how long it will be before we see the line “Emissions will always be higher under a Labor government” trotted out?
Always been a bloke with too much time on his hands
[AshGhebranious
@AshGhebranious
42m
42 minutes ago
More
When are the media going to apologise for their attacks on McDonald now he is found not guilty? You do the shit stirring but you refuse to lick from your own spoon. So lick away media. Mmmmmm thick and browny. Go ahead. Eat it. EAT IT!!! You made it. Now eat it. #auspol #NSWpol]
@AshGhebranious doesn’t understand what “retrial” means.
Alan Moyes, there was a situation in Indi where Sophie Mirrabella, amongst other things, promised a big Hospital upgrade/project if the sheep voted for her. Cathy McGowan saw her off ( for good I hope) bit the bribe was a ‘test run’ I guess for this election. Sadly, Learning is not one of the LNP’s strong points.
@ LR
Still tingling from the severe thrashing I gave myself last night, I bow meekly before the Lord of Statistics, the Mighty Median, and humbly offer up my poll prognostication for the Essential-
ALP 54- Coalition 46.
PS. My lettuce of choice is Iceberg. It keeps its shape and goes well with curried egg next day for
lunch.
This is how the Tories do climate change policy.
Handouts for industry
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/25/emissions-reduction-fund-to-pay-for-fossil-fuel-plant-that-would-be-built-anyway