Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.

After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,194 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I’ve just received a letter in the mail from Mackenna Powell who is the Nationals candidate for Wagga Wagga in the upcoming NSW election. Included is a card for $250 to be used towards fuel and travel costs which I’ll get if I vote for her.

    Regional Seniors Transport Card?

  3. The Monthly in March.

    “The times favour me,” Bill Shorten says. Speaking to Laura Tingle in his first in-depth press interview in many months, the Opposition leader is both candid and confident. He speaks as a man who has survived every insult and accusation that opponents have thrown at him, and as someone who has been able to set that stuff aside and instead think about what may come next.
    While Shorten may not be telegenic or loved, or even warmly regarded by the broader Australian public, he has been extremely effective as a Labor leader, and has built a solid platform from which, he hopes, to govern. He has presided over a party that was broken when he took the leadership yet is now more unified than it has been in decades, and has kept its focus on political outcomes rather than infighting.

    As he tells Tingle, Shorten believes that he has a firm grasp of what the Australian public wants in a government, and that he is well placed to deliver it.

    The positions he lays out are rarely radical; nevertheless they can appear this way – simply because they are so at odds with those of the current government and its boosters. Accusations that the two major parties are like peas in a pod seem crazy now. Shorten’s Labor has progressive social policies and redistributive tax plans. It will take a markedly different approach to climate change and energy, to industrial relations and wages policy, to anti-corruption measures and government regulation generally, as well as Indigenous recognition.

    Shorten will also bring a different leadership style. As Tingle notes, “His colleagues will generally tell you that [Shorten] does consult, and that he certainly gives his frontbenchers the room to develop policy, and backs them.” Shorten’s sales pitch is about consensus and evidence-based policy, which couldn’t be further from the Coalition’s “Father knows best” approach and its endless fear-mongering about national security and illegal immigrants. The choice at the next election will be a stark one, between fear and ideas.

    Nick Feik
    Editor

  5. Lizzie

    Of course Dutton wont mention the two policeman who were bashed in St kilda.
    It was done by white self entitled idiots, not the minorities in this city.
    And also how can he demand they return to country of origin.
    Doesn’t fit the script,
    Have to say if it was done by a minority group it would be the biggest news in town

  6. Onebobsworth @ #499 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 11:46 am

    @ LR
    Still tingling from the severe thrashing I gave myself last night, I bow meekly before the Lord of Statistics, the Mighty Median, and humbly offer up my poll prognostication for the Essential-
    ALP 54- Coalition 46.
    PS. My lettuce of choice is Iceberg. It keeps its shape and goes well with curried egg next day for
    lunch.

    You need baked beans on that sanger as well, for true satisfaction.

  7. Simon K
    Is that bribery?

    It sounds like a National Party ballsup. An election promise? A bribe? A mock cash card? Complaints of bribery have been lodged with the NSW EC IIRC.

  8. Thanks lizzie 11:50 am

    I am getting the impression Tingle has made up her mind on this government 🙂

    EDIT: even if Nick Feik compiled it.

  10. PeeBee @ #477 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 11:08 am

    Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the Archbishop of Munich, has told 190 church leaders gathered in Rome that procedures to investigate and punish paedophile priests had often been ignored. “Files that could have documented the terrible deeds and named those responsible were destroyed, or not even created,” he said.
    …………

    Just because a lot of clergy were caught child raping. And just because their deeds were covered up by the church hierarchy. And just because the senior leadership of the organisation did nothing about the child raping, in fact moved perps to new pastures and destroying evidence, you should not condemn the whole church.

    If someone, just someone, in the ‘whole church’ did something meaningful about ‘outing’ the rapists and the culture that nurtured and protected them, then you might have a case. But from where I sit, the ‘whole church’ was why this could and did happen.

  11. I was listening to Mark Butler this morning and he was asked about the CFMMEU potentially campaigning against labor candidates and how it would affect the position of those candidates on Adani.

    I found his response interesting. He said wtte that the CFMMEU was free to campaign as it saw fit and individual candidates would respond as they saw fit.

    I posted yesterday that I thought there had been a shift in language from labor over the past week re Adani. Richard Marles started it off ( albeit in a very clumsy way ) then Terri Butler, Tony Burke, Tanya Plibersek and Mark Butler this morning were all more “ free” in their doubts around Adani meeting its environmental conditions. All shadow or assistant shadow ministers and from both left and right.

    I do not believe that after 5.5 years of tight disclipine labor suddenly falls apart. I do not believe that. So, the change in tone interests me.

    The inference from Butler this morning that individual candidates would respond to Adani as they saw fit also was interesting given that Cathy O’Toole has swung behind Adani going ahead if it stacks up at the same time shadow ministers were making public their concerns.

    Subtle but clear change in direction from labor. Where it goes will be interesting.

  12. Onebobsworth

    I seem to remember reading that Iceberg lettuce was invented (bred?) to have such staying power that it would remain fresh and green after travelling for days across America.

  13. Boerwar

    I’m surprised they have gone on as long as they have. The natives are restless and unfortunately Macron keeps coming out with ‘just what not to say’ comments. Like telling a guy who had been looking for work he could get a job by just crossing the street. would have gone down well. Or maybe it’s all in the translation

    Maybe he has now learnt to fake ‘humility’ ? 🙂
    ———————————————
    Henry Samuel, paris
    24 FEBRUARY 2019 • 3:00PM

    Emmanuel Macron apologises for ‘humiliating’ French as he reflects on gilets jaunes protests in new book

    ……………………He adds: “Lots of people were ashamed of their life, of no being able to make ends meet despite their best efforts. We’re the ones who should be ashamed.”

    Mr Macron, whose off-the-cuff comments on the “stubborn Gauls”, the unemployed and the poor infuriated swathes of the electorate
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/24/emmanuel-macron-apologises-humiliating-french-reflects-gilets/

  14. @ Yabba
    Dog no! That idea would put the wind up me! Curried egg and baked beans?
    Gotta love baked beans though. My favourite brekky is eggs,bacon and baked beans (strictly ham-flavoured) on fresh white bread. Yum..

  15. Boerwar

    In 2002 I met an interesting elderly Frenchman (of Armenian family origins – family having decided France was a safer place after 1915). He had served in the elite French Military (paratroops?) in the then French Indochina (now Vietnam) with Jean-Marie Le Pen. Though in Australia for many years he still regarded himself also as French – he had been born there.

    To say he hated Le Pen would be a huge understatement. If I remember right some of it was to do with Le Pen’s attitudes then in the 1950s towards the locals, but lots also to do with later political events. When Le Pen came a narrow second in the first round of the Presidential election, squeezing out the Socialist candidate, this guy was quite distressed. He told me words to the effect that if Le Pen got up he was going to go back to France and have his final reckoning with him! And this from a guy who was about 80.

    I don’t think Marine Le Pen will ever win the Presidency. Last time she got 34% in the second round. I would think this is ‘peak National Front’ but given that her father only got 18% in 2002 you never know.

    Let’s see – a UK under Farage, France under Le Pen with ‘Frexit’, Germany under AfD. Lovely.

  17. ItzaDream @ #510 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:06 pm

    PeeBee @ #477 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 11:08 am

    Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the Archbishop of Munich, has told 190 church leaders gathered in Rome that procedures to investigate and punish paedophile priests had often been ignored. “Files that could have documented the terrible deeds and named those responsible were destroyed, or not even created,” he said.
    …………

    Just because a lot of clergy were caught child raping. And just because their deeds were covered up by the church hierarchy. And just because the senior leadership of the organisation did nothing about the child raping, in fact moved perps to new pastures and destroying evidence, you should not condemn the whole church.

    If someone, just someone, in the ‘whole church’ did something meaningful about ‘outing’ the rapists and the culture that nurtured and protected them, then you might have a case. But from where I sit, the ‘whole church’ was why this could and did happen.

    PeeBee was being sarcastic. I note GG’s absolute silence. Before the RC he was very keen on his support for the ‘church’, also known as the RPPS, and the ‘few rotten apples’ theory, which has now been shown to be utterly false. Has he finally woken up? Fat chance, I suspect.

  18. The Morrison government’s emissions reduction fund – rebadged as a “climate solutions” policy and to be boosted with an extra $2bn – is being used to help one of the world’s biggest gold miners pay for a fossil fuel power plant the company concedes it would have built anyway.

    Fund opponents say it is the latest evidence that design flaws in the scheme are leading to taxpayers’ money being wasted on projects that are commercially viable even without public support. In some cases, the climate funding is going to new fossil fuel projects on the grounds that they are cleaner than the dirty projects they replace.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/25/emissions-reduction-fund-to-pay-for-fossil-fuel-plant-that-would-be-built-anyway?CMP=soc_568

  19. lizzie @ #518 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:13 pm

    The Morrison government’s emissions reduction fund – rebadged as a “climate solutions” policy and to be boosted with an extra $2bn – is being used to help one of the world’s biggest gold miners pay for a fossil fuel power plant the company concedes it would have built anyway.

    Fund opponents say it is the latest evidence that design flaws in the scheme are leading to taxpayers’ money being wasted on projects that are commercially viable even without public support. In some cases, the climate funding is going to new fossil fuel projects on the grounds that they are cleaner than the dirty projects they replace.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/25/emissions-reduction-fund-to-pay-for-fossil-fuel-plant-that-would-be-built-anyway?CMP=soc_568

    I think the Coalition would disagree that this was “taxpayers’ money being wasted”, since this is precisely what they believe taxpayers money is for 🙁

  20. yabba @ #517 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    ItzaDream @ #510 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:06 pm

    PeeBee @ #477 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 11:08 am

    Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the Archbishop of Munich, has told 190 church leaders gathered in Rome that procedures to investigate and punish paedophile priests had often been ignored. “Files that could have documented the terrible deeds and named those responsible were destroyed, or not even created,” he said.
    …………

    Just because a lot of clergy were caught child raping. And just because their deeds were covered up by the church hierarchy. And just because the senior leadership of the organisation did nothing about the child raping, in fact moved perps to new pastures and destroying evidence, you should not condemn the whole church.

    If someone, just someone, in the ‘whole church’ did something meaningful about ‘outing’ the rapists and the culture that nurtured and protected them, then you might have a case. But from where I sit, the ‘whole church’ was why this could and did happen.

    PeeBee was being sarcastic. I note GG’s absolute silence. Before the RC he was very keen on his support for the ‘church’, also known as the RPPS, and the ‘few rotten apples’ theory, which has now been shown to be utterly false. Has he finally woken up? Fat chance, I suspect.

    Mi scusi. I didn’t know PeeBee’s stance on this.

  22. ItzaDream

    I accidentally found this (pretty long) article on the ABC website written by an openly gay catholic priest, talking about that recent Frederic Martel book release and the culture of secrecy, lies and fears of blackmail permeating through the catholic church. He has obviously experienced a lot of what he talks about first hand.

    https://www.abc.net.au/religion/fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric-martel-and-the-structure-of-the-clerical-closet/10843678

  26. Onebobsworth @ #512 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:11 pm

    @ Yabba
    Dog no! That idea would put the wind up me! Curried egg and baked beans?
    Gotta love baked beans though. My favourite brekky is eggs,bacon and baked beans (strictly ham-flavoured) on fresh white bread. Yum..

    Some time ago, at a sandwich shop under Milson’s Point station, the person in front of me ordered such a sandwich, on multigrain, no less. I was very glad not to have to work alongside him.

  27. briefly @ #299 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 11:25 pm

    Of course, thinking about it, the Medevac bill has also served to sharpen perceptions of the differences between Labor and Liberal. This has been achieved by the Liberals’ reaction more than by anything else. They have accentuated difference. This can only work in favour of Labor. Voters want not-Lib. They’re gonna get it with Labor. There is also the sheer joy of helping the Indies, who are the natural 3rd-voice competitors of the Liblings. The Indies have accomplished in 5 minutes things the Liblings have not achieved in 25 years. RDN was foaming at the mouth.

    Yes, it did render The Greens irrelevant. In one fell swoop the Indies and Labor solved a problem that is causing great suffering while providing the Libs and The Greens with sticks to bash the ALP. Now of course the Libs are being duplicitous with the legislation by reviving Christmas Island but hopefully they will be kicked out of government soon and the ALP can follow the intent as well as the letter of the law.

  29. I was in New Orleans in the final stages of the first Clinton Gore campaign. It was a warm night down by the levee, with the crowd getting frenzied waiting for the arrivals. Al and Tipper were first, she in a hot pink suit. Hot pink. I kept thinking bad thoughts about Jackie and Dallas. Security wasn’t evident, back then. Finally Bill arrived. I don’t recall Hillary.

    He moved along the face of the crowd. I shook his hand. After the speeches, there was a magic moment where the candidates threw (fake) doubloons out into the crowd, a shimmering spray of glittering gold coins, everyone trying to catch one or scramble them from the ground. It was a tradition that harked back to when the electorate was literally bribed.

    (Later, we would be at the Democrat Party party at the Boston Park Plaza on the night he was elected. That was sumthin’.)

  32. Player One @ #513 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:16 pm

    lizzie @ #518 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:13 pm

    The Morrison government’s emissions reduction fund – rebadged as a “climate solutions” policy and to be boosted with an extra $2bn – is being used to help one of the world’s biggest gold miners pay for a fossil fuel power plant the company concedes it would have built anyway.

    Fund opponents say it is the latest evidence that design flaws in the scheme are leading to taxpayers’ money being wasted on projects that are commercially viable even without public support. In some cases, the climate funding is going to new fossil fuel projects on the grounds that they are cleaner than the dirty projects they replace.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/25/emissions-reduction-fund-to-pay-for-fossil-fuel-plant-that-would-be-built-anyway?CMP=soc_568

    I think the Coalition would disagree that this was “taxpayers’ money being wasted”, since this is precisely what they believe taxpayers money is for 🙁

    A half decent opposition could grab this and create and control a ferocious daily narrative of Govt mismanagement re the ‘climate solutions policy’.

    But we’re talking about Labors debating skills here…

  33. Someone asked what GJs meant.

    =Gilets Jaunes

    This is the name for a large number of protestors who protested against various initiatives by Macron to get France’s debt and deficit under control. (Debt to GDP is around 100%.) The immediate spark was an increase in petrol price, mandated by Macron’s predecessor, to improve CO2 emissions outcomes.

    This was a spark to the growing anger at the process of de-industrialization, job losses and declining costs of living among all the people who were losing out to globalization, robotics, and the digital revolution. In France the spatial pattern was of the urban elites doing well and the rural and regional non-elites faring poorly. There is good reason to consider similarities between the GJs, Trump’s deplorables, to those Labour voters who voted for Brexit and to elements (but not all) of PHON voters.

    Initially small, and initially based in regions were protestors were hit particularly hard by rising petrol prices, the protests rapidly became nation-wide and involved hundreds of thousands of protestors. How many hundreds of thousands, I am not sure. (When we were in Paris there were several protests involving over a million protestors).

    The name comes from the hi viz vests worn by protestors.

    The protestors have little formal organizational structure. No leader or group of leaders appears to have emerged. We know that the Le Pen far right extremists are engaged, as well as les casseurs – extremist Left persons.

    Macron responded by giving in on various cost cutting measures and by taking some action or other on the minimum wage.

    So far the GJ protests have resulted in four dead, many hundreds injured, and several billions in damage.

    The protests continue on a weekly basis but the number of protestors has fallen considerably.

    I assume that ratio of extremists has continued to climb as the overall numbers of protestors have continued to fall.

    Open anti-semitism is the latest development in the GJ protests.

    What would be interesting would be to know whether the six million or so of France’s muslim population have participated to any great extent. Their overall poverty levels would be worse than the overall poverty levels of France as a whole.

  34. Interesting that lettuce was once associated with sexual stamina, in that it is often associated nowadays with flaccidity.

    If anyone’s keeping a list, I prefer iceberg letti. Those designer ones look too much like something I’d tip into the Green Bin after mowing the lawns.

  35. Gillian Triggs view is I’m sure shared by many others re Medevac
    From a speech in support of Stephanie Hodges-May, Greens candidate for MacNamara

    In her speech on Sunday, Profes­sor Triggs lashed the government for opposing the Kerryn Phelps-­inspired medivac bill, which became law last week with the support of Bill Shorten.

    She criticised Labor for failing to take a stronger stand against the government’s treatment of asylum­-seekers. “The opposition has lacked the courage to challenge polices for fear of opening up a chink of light between it and the government of the day,” she said.

    Duplicitous rewriting of matters may seem to briefly sooth the mind of the partisans, please feel free to remain as delusional as you wish about other people’s perceptions

  36. PuffyTMD @ #521 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:24 pm

    briefly @ #299 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 11:25 pm

    Of course, thinking about it, the Medevac bill has also served to sharpen perceptions of the differences between Labor and Liberal. This has been achieved by the Liberals’ reaction more than by anything else. They have accentuated difference. This can only work in favour of Labor. Voters want not-Lib. They’re gonna get it with Labor. There is also the sheer joy of helping the Indies, who are the natural 3rd-voice competitors of the Liblings. The Indies have accomplished in 5 minutes things the Liblings have not achieved in 25 years. RDN was foaming at the mouth.

    Yes, it did render The Greens irrelevant. In one fell swoop the Indies and Labor solved a problem that is causing great suffering while providing the Libs and The Greens with sticks to bash the ALP. Now of course the Libs are being duplicitous with the legislation by reviving Christmas Island but hopefully they will be kicked out of government soon and the ALP can follow the intent as well as the letter of the law.

    Of course the reality is the Independents and Greens initiated the medevac changes while the Lib-Labs ignored the torture for years. Labor was dragged to voting yes before Christmas and have been pooping themselves ever since about it.

  37. Quoll @ #529 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:38 pm

    Gillian Triggs view is I’m sure shared by many others re Medevac
    From a speech in support of Stephanie Hodges-May, Greens candidate for MacNamara

    In her speech on Sunday, Profes­sor Triggs lashed the government for opposing the Kerryn Phelps-­inspired medivac bill, which became law last week with the support of Bill Shorten.

    She criticised Labor for failing to take a stronger stand against the government’s treatment of asylum­-seekers. “The opposition has lacked the courage to challenge polices for fear of opening up a chink of light between it and the government of the day,” she said.

    Duplicitous rewriting of matters may seem to briefly sooth the mind of the partisans, please feel free to remain as delusional as you wish about other people’s perceptions

    Triggs should run as an Independent.

  38. Rocket Rocket says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 10:48 am
    Boerwar, briefly

    Before this ‘wow’ poll put a spring in my step last night I had spent the weekend getting very depressed by listening to reports from Europe on the BBC. In particular what elements of the Gilets Jaunes were getting up to in France.

    Racism is clearly being used as a tactical device by the organisers of the various national, anti-establishment and protest groups. They are using hate to generate intensity of feeling, to tighten discipline and to recruit. It also helps precipitate violence, which is another political device in itself. Violence attracts attention and sometimes induces counter-violence. These can become self-sustaining, spontaneous and radicalising. Racism and violence embody revenge and force. Someone somewhere has decided these are useful instruments. So far, the established order – the institutions – have mostly immunised themselves against racism. The exception is UK Labour, which has been become a carrier.

    I think you’re correct to be anxious. We know only too well what happens when racist feelings become mobilised for political purposes. The neo-Nazi gangs will try to glamorise the past, to affiliate themselves with historical atrocities. They will bask in the condemnation, as anti-heroes. We have lost contact with the idea of the heroic. Instead, we have been asked to kneel down for anti-heroes, for the criminals and the gangsters, the vendors of hate.

    We must not lose our voices.

  39. Unannounced decisions $8.9 billion. It is hard to track the spend.
    $1.3 billion announced in Hobart – but how much was rebadging and how much new expenditure?
    $.8 billion (?) over forward estimates for the Climate Boondoggle. But they have about a quarter of a billion in the kitty unspent from Abbott’s Climate Boondoggle.
    Still, they must be biting into that $8.9 billion.
    The big announcements would have to be tax cuts over the forward estimates. How they are to be paid for is interesting. Even the total of $8.9 billion would not make a hole in any decent tax cuts.
    Creative accounting might just have to underpin the Coalition’s Budget announcement.

  40. RR
    Re: the rise of the Right extremist wreckers, I agree.
    They triggered the Brexit process which is wrecking the joint in Britain.
    We live in interesting times.

  41. Morrison must think he is a better at selling Abbotts revamped shit so he is keeping Price out of the way.The RWNJs are so obviously in charge.

  42. PeeBee and ItzaDream

    I would also note that, a couple of months ago, our blog-god William chided me for dubbing the organisation in question the “Roman Paedophile Protection Society” (RPPS). They have now revealed themselves to be exactly that, thoughout the world, from his poap infallibilityness down.

  44. PeeBee @ #471 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 11:08 am

    Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the Archbishop of Munich, has told 190 church leaders gathered in Rome that procedures to investigate and punish paedophile priests had often been ignored. “Files that could have documented the terrible deeds and named those responsible were destroyed, or not even created,” he said.
    …………

    Just because a lot of clergy were caught child raping. And just because their deeds were covered up by the church hierarchy. And just because the senior leadership of the organisation did nothing about the child raping, in fact moved perps to new pastures and destroying evidence, you should not condemn the whole church.

    Clear grounds for the cult to be outlawed.

    But our major parties are infested with cultists who will protect it.

  45. I have no doubt that much of the million donated to a miner will come back as a donation to the Lib party. Corruption taking place in plain sight.

  46. “Included is a card for $250 to be used towards fuel and travel costs which I’ll get if I vote for her. Nothing about the LNP having to win the election first, just if I vote for her! Very generous. ”

    I’d question the legality of that?? 🙁

  47. If anyone’s keeping a list, I prefer iceberg letti. Those designer ones look too much like something I’d tip into the Green Bin after mowing the lawns.

    I like pies. Meat pies. Kangaroos, football and Holden cars.

  49. That bollocks won’t get a rise out of me Rexy boy but I’m sure you will pleased to set off another mindless useless bun fight between the Greens and ALP reactionaries again- I don’t know why they bother.

  50. Love the way Briefly throws around generalizations willy nilly. Tell me, Briefly what are the ALP doing about all the racists and anti Semites in it’s rank? Are you of the belief that there are none? I’m sure there are some, just as there are some in British Labour Is it a ‘carrier’ too? You do spout some ridiculous, but offensive guff at times.

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