Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.

After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,194 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. poroti @ #695 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    Dan Gulberry

    The chaps in The City were in clover under Blair. Those PPI “management” contracts meant the poor old taxpayer ended up paying 5 or 6 times what they would have for an asset. Hundreds of billions of pounds thank you very much. As for how much tax they pay, how much tax do they avoid and how much money do they transfer to tax havens ?

    Zactly.

  2. Yeah, Nah

    “This morning on ABC Radio Adelaide, Ms Downer said she was “not presenting Commonwealth money” because the cheque was “not legal tender”.

    She said the Fleurieu Peninsula club had asked her to come and present a “novelty cheque” because she had worked with the club to make sure its Community Sport Infrastructure grant application was successful.

    “They didn’t detail the specifics of the novelty cheque,” Ms Downer said.

    “… there was not one person in the bowling club on Friday who thought it was my money, who thought the cheque was real or who thought the grant did not come from the Commonwealth Government.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-25/downer-says-cheque-was-absolutely-not-commonwealth-money/10845904

  3. billie @ #700 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:07 pm

    A $50,000 donation was made to the WA Liberal Party by an elderly Chinese industrialist just days before one of his Australian business associates was appointed to a powerful diplomatic advisory board by former foreign minister Julie Bishop.

    Story broke today

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/julie-bishop-denies-any-link-between-donation-from-elderly-chinese-mogul-and-advisor-s-appointment-20190224-p50zxe.html

    Did she know this story was going to break? Is this the real reason she decided to withdraw from the upcoming election?

    Bill Shorten has questions to answer.

  4. citizen @ #522 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 1:32 pm

    Perhaps the Nationals’ $250 voucher can be put towards a holiday in Spain?

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    A few minutes with a Photo Program would reverse the photo and add whatever text required. Another masterstroke. I’m hoping that some body will offer me a brand new very large ⛄ refreezerator ⛄for my vote at the coming Federal Election. ☕

  5. Julie Bishop denies any link

    She can say that. Because she thinks we are dumb and she knows that, unless there is concrete proof linking the donation to the appointment thats all she has to say to get away with it. You know – hands off process etc etc. These crooks have perfected the art.

    A new legal definition for political corruption must be part of any Fed Icac.

  6. Re the dawn service in France another success for Scomo as he p**s of the French over ruling his Minister another captains pick??

  7. Re Kenny: The Coalition should be worried about their combined (and steady) Newspoll base vote of 37% with only 5% parked in one nation. Labor has been shown to be competitive when polling just under 40% with 9-10% parked in the Greens. Having an under 40% base vote for the Coalition is the true election portent for them!

  8. Briefly, You really are a bit dense sometimes.

    You say: Implicitly, you’re close to saying that religious adherence causes sexual violence. This is self-evidently inaccurate.

    You concede, because it is true:
    The RC found that 40% of the Christian Brothers Sect of the RPPS in Australia were active paedophiles.

    Forty percent!!! And the other 60% never suspected. Never, not at all.

    Is the Christian Brothers Sect a religious organisation? What do the members of that sect have in common? Might it be religious adherence? What caused their foul, disgusting, criminal behaviour?
    Must have been the devil! It is an invention of their religion, after all. Could they get protection, ‘forgiveness’, and continued long term access to victims because of their religious participation? Just possible, maybe. Did their religion insist on ‘celibacy’? Was their a correlation between their religious belief and their behaviour, do you think? Or was it all just coincidence? Somewhere south of 0.05% of adult males participate in paedophile behaviour, but 40% of Roman Catholic Christian Brothers do. Just happenstance, eh, Briefly.

    As you say, in your palpably pompous manner – ‘Self evidently inaccurate!’ Yeah, sure!!!

  9. A new legal definition for political corruption must be part of any Fed Icac.

    There is two issues here, firstly the one I think you are making, that is that the laws should prohibit or at least put a significant but rebuttable presumption of wrong doing.

    But secondly our defo laws are so bad the media can’t mean corruption in the common sense of something that is just off / wrong / misusing power even when it is apparent that is what it is. French media referred to au pair thing as a scandal, but our media never did.

  10. Yabba, it is quite self-evidently the case that religious adherence does not cause sexual violence. Consider the many examples of sexual violence that occur outside religious organisations. How do you explain them? You think you’re the smartest git in the room. You’re not. You’re merely some other git.

    You are an intellectual snob. You’re also a religious bigot. They’re a bad mix.

  11. ‘Dan Gulberry says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 2:49 pm

    Nicholas @ #665 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 11:30 am

    The City puts in around 65 billion quid in taxes.

    So what?

    Tax receipts don’t finance the UK Government’s spending. Taxes delete some of the purchasing power of the private sector. That is their main function. Inflation control. Other functions of a currency issuer’s taxes are 2. influencing the distribution of income and wealth; and 3. influencing the behaviours of households and firms via the incentives and disincentives created by tax obligations.

    You might have also added that the chaps in The City have bled the UK Treasury of many times that amount, including, but not limited to, the privatisations of state owned assets they picked up for a song.

    Someone who defends the banksters can never call themselves a “centrist”. They are way out on the far right fringes, alongside the IPA.’

    Here we go again another post, another strawman.
    Who is this ‘someone’ whereof you speak?
    I can’t recall defending banksters.
    What I have said is that the Brexiteers Corbyn and May have both failed in their leadership by failing to explain to the people of Britain the full consequences of Brexit.
    One such consequence is that the functions of the City will stay inside the EU by leaving the UK.
    The consequence of that is that the UK loses 65 billion quid in taxes a year.

  12. Forty percent!!! And the other 60% never suspected. Never, not at all.

    So you are suggesting collective punishment? Have you got some thinking behind this whole collective punishment thing, how it might work, its strengths and weaknesses?

  13. Player One @ #697 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 3:02 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #686 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 2:50 pm

    briefly

    ..We would have to close every civil organisation, including scouts and sporting clubs, political parties and schools…

    Why ?

    Do those organisations have such a child abuse issue as recorded by the RCC ?

    Of course they don’t.

    Enough with the deflections and nonsense.

    So you have a benchmark you apply? Is it 5% of members? 10%? More?

    benchmarks ? percentages ??

    You and anyone else trying to peddle that sort of narrative needs to stop it.

    The overwhelming culture of this organisation is clear for those with a pinch of civility.

    The defence 0f this organisation, with all its inglorious misdeeds, is very uncivilised. You really sure you want to go down that path… ?

  14. simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    7m7 minutes ago

    government’s “national strategy for electric vehicles” fact sheet is the most vacuous gov’t document i’ve ever read.

    the most ‘informative’ paragraph reads like a grade 6 project… but wtf is “tailpipe” doing in an australian document?

  15. the laws should prohibit or at least put a significant but rebuttable presumption of wrong doing

    Yes. Only in relation to donations to political parties (with a broad definition of donations).

    After the calamity of several attempts (and mostly avoidance) at reforming election campaign finance and donation rules; this simple change would cause a dramatic decline in donations and noticeable improvement in governance.

  16. EB @ #549 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:51 pm

    That bollocks won’t get a rise out of me Rexy boy but I’m sure you will pleased to set off another mindless useless bun fight between the Greens and ALP reactionaries again- I don’t know why they bother.

    Not this little black c@t. I came back to the blog after watching the Oscars and the first comments by 2 of the usual suspects that I saw were slags of Labor. Not interested.

    I have Womens’ dignity to protect as the blog’s caped Moral Crusader! For I am Wonder Woman C@t. Hear me meow! 😉

  17. Rex Douglas @ #719 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 3:41 pm

    benchmarks ? percentages ??

    You and anyone else trying to peddle that sort of narrative needs to stop it.

    I will if you will.

    The overwhelming culture of this organisation is clear for those with a pinch of civility.

    The defence 0f this organisation, with all its inglorious misdeeds, is very uncivilised. You really sure you want to go down that path… ?

    So, what is your criteria – I mean the one that convicts the church but exonerates the boy scouts?

  18. So here’s Mr Morrison again trying to fatten a pig on market day with his latest environment policy. One would have thought, after the last few weeks, that the government might at least have tried to avoid something so easily characterised as handing over public money to its own mates.

    Pointless for them to try anything really: everyone is well aware by now that the coalition parties are so full of climate change deniers that anything they might attempt will just be smoke and mirrors, something they don’t really believe in. At best this announcement will provide a talking point for their supporters; it won’t shift any votes. But it’s a sign of how detached they have become from community sentiment that they (a) feel the need to come up with a last minute policy; and (b) may think they will get away with it.

  19. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 3:10 pm
    Yeah, Nah

    “This morning on ABC Radio Adelaide, Ms Downer said she was “not presenting Commonwealth money” because the cheque was “not legal tender”.

    She said the Fleurieu Peninsula club had asked her to come and present a “novelty cheque” because she had worked with the club to make sure its Community Sport Infrastructure grant application was successful.

    “They didn’t detail the specifics of the novelty cheque,” Ms Downer said.

    “… there was not one person in the bowling club on Friday who thought it was my money, who thought the cheque was real or who thought the grant did not come from the Commonwealth Government.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-25/downer-says-cheque-was-absolutely-not-commonwealth-money/10845904


    Sproket if I’m not mistaken there is a pig slaughterhouse in the Mayo electorate – maybe the spirit of a couple of pigs flew over the bowling club that night –

  20. wtf is “tailpipe” doing in an australian document?

    I know what a tailpipe is. Although an electric car wouldn’t have one. Or if it did, it would be purely an aesthetic choice by the manufacturer.

  21. Maybe Ted Kunkel in Scotty’s Office dug out some US electric car stuff off Google and repurposed it into the policy announcement

    tailpipe probably meant more to the Septic than exhaust pipe, in any case

  22. Speaking of the Oscars, it was good to see, and yes, I know this is Hollywood, but…it was good to see a film about Racial Vilification and Segregation in America, ‘Green Book’, win the Best Film. Plus the best short film was ‘The Skin’ about tattooing Jews, I think. Also, Best Documentary, in this #MeToo era, was a film called’Period. Should Be the End of the Sentence’, about how menstruation, around the world, is used to discriminate against women.

    Not bad for a day’s work. Congratulations the American Academy of Motion Pictures, Arts and Sciences.

  23. The Climate Boondoggle Flim Flam

    Climate magic: our emissions are rising but we will meet our targets.

    1. Will increase irrigation. Building the irrigation will emit more CO2. Rivers are already dying.
    2. Will light more fires. Fires emit CO2. More CO2.
    3. Will not stop clearing. Clearing emits massive amounts of CO2. Will not stop tax break to farmers who clear. Will pay farmers to revegetate land thy have already received a tax break to clear.
    4. Some of the ‘Reef Rescue Fund’ is going to pay farmers to stop erosion consequent to clearing. Three hits on the taxapayer: clearing tax break, revegetation tax break, erosion control grant money. Erosian control works will generate more CO2.
    5. Drought proofing farms will not stop Global Warming from destroying farms.

  24. @MERCURY

    ‘BREAKING: A long-serving State Liberal MP has announced their immediate resignation from politics. Story on @themercurycomau soon. #politas’

  25. briefly @ #715 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 3:34 pm

    Yabba, it is quite self-evidently the case that religious adherence does not cause sexual violence. Consider the many examples of sexual violence that occur outside religious organisations. How do you explain them? You think you’re the smartest git in the room. You’re not. You’re merely some other git.

    You are an intellectual snob. You’re also a religious bigot. They’re a bad mix.

    Beautifully put, Briefly. See if you can spot the logical non-sequitur in your rant.

    Try this.

    I believe mange causes dogs which have it to itch.

    Some dogs (actually lots of dogs) get the itches from causes other than mange. (Now how could I possibly explain that?)

    Plainly, according to your impeccable thought processes, it is self evident that mange does not cause dogs to itch. Doh.

  26. and because no amount of currency issuance will result in inflation

    What?

    No. MMT does not claim that.

    If total spending in the economy (from the government and / or the non-government sector) increases at a rate that is faster than the increase in the available goods and services for sale in the currency, the result is inflation. This type of inflation is called demand-pull inflation.

    If increases in the production of output are sufficient to absorb any increases in total spending, then the increased spending is not inflationary.

    Inflation can also result from ongoing increases in the price of an important commodity (such as oil) that is embedded in the prices of a range of goods and services and that creates pressure for wage rises that keep pace with increases in the cost of living. This type of inflation is called cost-push inflation.

    The other claim you made – that unemployment is always the fault of the currency issuer – is completely true. A currency issuer can always employ labour that is available for sale in its currency. Therefore if there is any involuntary unemployment at all (except for *”wait unemployment” and **”frictional unemployment”), it is a sign of insufficient government spending to employ all available labour.

    The private sector never does enough spending on its own to employ everyone who wants to work – not even at the peak of the business cycle.

    The most efficient way to eliminate unemployment is for the government to make an unconditional offer of employment at a living wage that sets the wage floor for the economy.

    The currency issuer also needs to be a significant employer of people at a range of skill levels i.e. the regular public sector needs to employ people at a range of skill levels and pay them market wages.

    But to eliminate involuntary unemployment completely, it is important to have the currency issuer determine the wage floor, that is the minimum acceptable wage that a person can be paid, and guarantee people an interesting and meaningful job at that wage whenever they want it.

    Let local governments, NGOs, and community-based organizations collaborate with job-seekers to design jobs that suit the job-seeker’s interests and abilities.

    There is ample scope to create jobs for people in ways that meet social, environmental, artistic, cultural, and small-scale public works needs at the grassroots level of communities where the market and the state are not particularly well-engaged.

    * wait unemployment refers to job-seekers who have enough money to hold out for an optimal job vacancy.

    * frictional unemployment reflects the fact that it can take some weeks for employers and job-seekers to find each other.

    At any given time, wait unemployment and frictional unemployment combined will probably be 1 or 2 percent of the labour force. This is the only unemployment that should be tolerated.

    An unemployment rate above 2 percent is unacceptable.

    Underemployment should be zero and hidden unemployment should also be zero.

  27. The WA pensioners’ fuel card is quite generous, funded by the National’s Royalties for Regions.

    Country Age Pension Fuel Card – Travel Assistance in Western Australia
    A Country Age Pension Fuel Card allows the cardholder to purchase up to $575 of fuel and taxi travel from participating providers, (ie. to purchase petrol, autogas, diesel and taxi fares). Eligible applicants live in non-metropolitan areas and do not need to hold a driver’s licence or own a vehicle. Eligible applicants are entitled to one card per financial year. One card is issued per couple and cards are non-transferable. If cardholders remain eligible they are entitled to a new card every year. The Fuel Card may be used by a nominated person to transport the eligible person. For all Fuel Card transactions both the cardholder’s Pensioner Concession Card and Fuel Card must be presented to the participating provider at the point of purchase.

    https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Barnett/2017/01/Fuel-card-continued-for-regional-pensioners.aspx

  28. Guy on ABCNews telling Patricia K how it is, she’s either playing devils advocate or a died in the wool LNP shrill.
    He’s taking no shit and Patricia’s fighting hard against it.

  29. Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude @GeorgeBludger
    6h6 hours ago

    OMG Bevan has outdone himself.

    “Morrison has spent his 6 months as PM quietly working to craft a policy response that balances the differing views inside his divided administration and counters the public’s doubts over the government’s climate change credentials.”

  30. I hear (on the FB grapevine) that a certain high ranking figure from Ballarat is due to be sentenced on Wednesday – I wonder if there will be any media allowed about it?

  31. electionblogger2019.simplesite.com @ 3:57 pm

    It would be interesting to see how Ms Downer is placed in relation to section 150.1 of the Criminal Code (https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2018A00044), which was enacted by the Turnbull government in response to the 2016 “Mediscare” campaigning.

    “150.1 False representations in relation to a Commonwealth body

    (1) A person commits an offence if:

    (a) the person engages in conduct; and

    (b) the conduct results in, or is reasonably capable of resulting in, a representation that the person:

    (i) is a Commonwealth body; or

    (ii) is acting on behalf of, or with the authority of, a Commonwealth body; and

    (c) the person is not:

    (i) the Commonwealth body; or

    (ii) acting on behalf of, or with the authority of, the Commonwealth body.

    Penalty: Imprisonment for 2 years.”

  32. A $50,000 donation was made to the WA Liberal Party by an elderly Chinese industrialist just days before one of his Australian business associates was appointed to a powerful diplomatic advisory board by former foreign minister Julie Bishop.

    Ms Bishop, who said on Thursday she would not contest the next election, announced the appointment of Sydney businesswoman Margaret Jack to the board of the Australia-China Council on December 12, 2016, after Hong Kong-based manufacturing mogul Sun Kin Chao deposited the cash into Liberal coffers on December 9.

    Ms Jack is a director and shareholder of the Australian branch of Hong Kong-headquartered manufacturing multinational Kinox Enterprises, which was founded by the 99-year-old industrialist in the 1940s.

    Ms Jack and Kinox Enterprises are also significant donors to the NSW Liberal Party and the Nationals. Companies controlled by Ms Jack and the Sun family have donated $127,000 to the parties over the past decade in addition to the $50,000 WA donation.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/julie-bishop-denies-any-link-between-donation-from-elderly-chinese-mogul-and-advisor-s-appointment-20190224-p50zxe.html

  33. WeWantPaul @ #717 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 3:35 pm

    Forty percent!!! And the other 60% never suspected. Never, not at all.

    So you are suggesting collective punishment? Have you got some thinking behind this whole collective punishment thing, how it might work, its strengths and weaknesses?

    Now you are being silly. They are different charges. One is rape or indecent dealing with a minor, the other is concealing a crime. There is nothing collective about it. Each individual crime is a crime by an individual. However, there may also be charges of multiple persons involved in conspiracies, either to commit crimes, or to conceal and facilitate crimes.

    Clearish?

  34. lizzie @ #741 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 4:13 pm

    Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude @GeorgeBludger
    6h6 hours ago

    OMG Bevan has outdone himself.

    “Morrison has spent his 6 months as PM quietly working to craft a policy response that balances the differing views inside his divided administration and counters the public’s doubts over the government’s climate change credentials.”

    Oliver Yates just demolished that narrative.

  35. Ms Downer is trying to avoid being ensnared by the Criminial Code wrt her cheque stunt by repeatedly saying everyone at the Bowling Club knew it was a novelty cheque. Not from her but from the government.

    With her face and name emblazoned all over it that’s going to be hard to believe.

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