Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.

After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,194 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 24
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  2. A law student has taken on Peter Dutton’s home affairs office and won, in what the Australian Catholic University has called a “breakthrough success” for an asylum seeker facing deportation and for the university’s Refugee Law Project.

    Bachelor of law and global studies student Frances Coyne joined the Refugee Law Project in her final year of law school, a project which sees the university’s students assisting asylum seekers in Federal Circuit Court matters.

    With Ms Coyne having taken on the case just before completing her studies last year, the project’s founder and Sydney barrister Victor Kline called the successful case, and the ACU’s student involvement, “a big win”.

    “Frances took it on with no experience other than the Refugee Law Project and was able to identify a legal precedent that ensured we won the case,” he said.

    Solicitors for Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton had to concede significant legal weaknesses in their deportation case against a Bangladeshi man following an application from his legal representatives.

    Ms Coyne gave a recommendation to the asylum seeker’s barrister, which enabled the citation of precedent to argue that the unnamed man could not be classified as an “unauthorised maritime arrival”.

    https://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/politics/25098-law-student-takes-on-dutton?utm_source=LawyersWeekly&utm_campaign=25_02_19&utm_medium=email&utm_content=1

  5. Dog’s Breakfast @ #740 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 4:13 pm

    Guy on ABCNews telling Patricia K how it is, she’s either playing devils advocate or a died in the wool LNP shrill.
    He’s taking no shit and Patricia’s fighting hard against it.

    PK does the devil’s advocate role very well.

    I’d love to see a poll of Kooyong to see how Yates is going against Frydenberg.

  6. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #742 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 4:14 pm

    I hear (on the FB grapevine) that a certain high ranking figure from Ballarat is due to be sentenced on Wednesday – I wonder if there will be any media allowed about it?

    It’s a shame we can’t use the tactics of the FBI and “flip” that person to spill the beans on his superiors … or should that be “superior” (i.e. singular, not plural).

  7. Ven
    I have a theory that there is a poll ceiling; only 53% of people are willing to indicate to a pollster their intention to vote Labor ( used to be 54% until News poll changed their minor party allocation).

    What varies is the number of people that are willing to vote Labor when no-one is looking. I give you the recent performance in Victoria and WA; the landslides were not expected.

  8. Noting a few minor peccadillos on the Labor and Greens side, and one set of sackable offences on the Labor side (Dastyari) here is where a whole lot of Coalition MPs got lucky and/or unlucky during the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison years:

    Abbott: Lucky $80,000 (?)Rolex Watch
    Robert: Lucky $80,000 (?) Rolex Watch
    McFarlane: Lucky $80,000 (?)Rolex Watch
    Robert: Unlucky China Business Trip
    Ley: Unlucky Gold Coast Business Trips
    Sinodinos: Lucky Water Holdings Sergeant Schultz
    Joyce: Unlucky Motorbike Prang
    Joyce: Unlucky 4×4 Prang
    Joyce: Lucky Love Shack
    Joyce: Lucky Job for the Other Woman
    Joyce: Lucky Mongrel Country Buy
    Joyce: Lucky Farmer of the Year Cheque
    Joyce: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Joyce: Lucky Trip to Smith’s Wedding
    JBishop: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Gambaro: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Brandis: Lucky Wedding Trip to Smith’s Nuptials
    Hockey: Lucky Helloworld Buy
    Cormann: Lucky Free Family Trip
    Morrison: Unlucky Bus Plane Bus Plane Trip
    BBishop: Lucky Mirabella Wedding Trip
    BBishop: Unlucky Helicopter Trip
    Porter: Lucky Campaign Bus
    Keenan: Lucky Fifth Amendment
    Cash: Lucky Fifth Amendment
    Downer: Unlucky Fake Cheque
    JBishop: Lucky $50,000 Liberal Party Donation
    JBishop: Lucky Polo Trip
    Pyne: Lucky Christmas Trip
    Porter: Lucky Campaign Bus

  9. C@tmomma @ #749 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 4:19 pm

    Ms Downer is trying to avoid being ensnared by the Criminial Code wrt her cheque stunt by repeatedly saying everyone at the Bowling Club knew it was a novelty cheque. Not from her but from the government.

    With her face and name emblazoned all over it that’s going to be hard to believe.

    If that were the case, why the stunt at all? And even if everyone in the club knew, what about the influence on others in the electorate who saw the publicity shots she made sure were produced and published.

    Ms Downer is toast.

  10. So much for the Greens push for gender equality in the Parliament –

    Terri Butler MP Tweets
    ‏
    Feb 21
    So the Greens are running a bloke against me, and a bloke against Ged. They’re also running a bloke in Ryan, which is the federal seat overlapping the only state seats they’ve ever held in Qld. #auspol

    ‏
    Feb 21
    More
    Replying to @terrimbutler
    They’re also running blokes against me in Lilley, Corinne in Petrie and Ali in Dickson where in each case an ALP progressive victory would flip the seat from a male to a female representative. Cute. #auspol

    I’d love to hear RDN explain this away.

  12. Lizzie, C@t et al, Oliver Yates was taking absolutely no prisoners in tearing down Scott’s “Climate Policy”, I didn’t know he was a candidate ( Pat tried to hook him with the ‘political’ line but failed) but based on what he said and how he put most of Pat’s attempts at pushing the Scott plan to the boundary, he’s the goods. Know nothing else about him but he was completed unfazed by her attempts to counter his line.
    I’m not too knowledgeable about her but she is formidable and not sure which way she leans.
    Anyway Oliver 1, Patricia 0

  14. Audit Office Twitter:

    The Auditor-General has received correspondence from the Hon. @markdreyfusQCMP, requesting that the Auditor-General investigate the conduct of a range of parties with respect to a grant to the Yankalilla Bowling Club. This request is under consideration anao.gov.au/work/request/g…

  15. Now Nick Griener trying to dis Yates. Patricia is defending Yates now so it’s an interesting afternoon of TV on News24.

  20. And the Greens are running female candidates elsewhere (Melbourne Ports/Macnamara, Warringah etc). A whole load of nothing from Terri Butler.

  21. I agree with Shellbell, Green Book is light , feel good entertainment. Go to see ‘If Beale Street could Talk” for real race relations as they stood in the 50/60s and how not much has changed. From the Brilliantly written book by Alec Baldwin . No feel good movie tho.

  28. Oliver Yates

    The Emissions Reduction Fund at 200m per year, represents around the same as what the government is using to market its “wonderful” performance through advertising.

  29. Consolidated List

    Abbott: Lucky $80,000 (?)Rolex Watch
    Robert: Lucky $80,000 (?) Rolex Watch
    McFarlane: Lucky $80,000 (?)Rolex Watch
    Robert: Unlucky China Business Trip
    Ley: Unlucky Gold Coast Business Trips
    Sinodinos: Lucky Water Holdings Sergeant Schultz
    Joyce: Unlucky Motorbike Prang
    Joyce: Unlucky 4×4 Prang
    Joyce: Lucky Love Shack
    Joyce: Lucky Job for the Other Woman
    Joyce: Lucky Mongrel Country Buy
    Joyce: Lucky Farmer of the Year Cheque
    Joyce: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Joyce: Lucky Trip to Smith’s Wedding
    JBishop: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Gambaro: Lucky Wedding Trip to India
    Brandis: Lucky Wedding Trip to Smith’s Nuptials
    Hockey: Lucky Helloworld Buy
    Cormann: Lucky Free Family Trip
    Morrison: Unlucky Bus Plane Bus Plane Trip
    BBishop: Lucky Mirabella Wedding Trip
    BBishop: Unlucky Helicopter Trip
    Porter: Lucky Campaign Bus
    Keenan: Lucky Fifth Amendment
    Cash: Lucky Fifth Amendment
    Downer: Unlucky Fake Cheque
    JBishop: Lucky $50,000 Liberal Party Donation
    JBishop: Lucky Polo Trip
    Pyne: Lucky Christmas Trip
    Porter: Lucky Campaign Bus
    Mirabella: Lucky Sub Expert
    Sudmalis: Lucky UN Observer Stint
    Hockey: Lucky Childcare Leaner
    Robb: Lucky Post China FTA China Job

  31. Robb’s lucky job came with a ‘Super Lucky Bonus’ .As the SMH put it ……………
    .
    .contains terms so vague and ill-defined he gets paid $880,000 a year even if he does nothing..

  32. On the Dawn Service in France.

    I am actually REALLY pissed at this. ScoMo should STFU about it. Its a FRENCH commemoration where they have strong reference to Australians and they have the right to honor those Australians how THEY see fit. They wnt to change the time so more people can participate? Fine, good move i reckon.

    Our prat of a PM should just pull his silly head in.

  33. IoM says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 4:37 pm
    And the Greens are running female candidates elsewhere (Melbourne Ports/Macnamara, Warringah etc). A whole load of nothing from Terri Butler.
    —

    Oh really. Running men against women in at least 6 winnable seats is a “whole lot of nothing” and you know as well as I do those Green’s women standing in Macnamara and Warringah have no chance of winning; how about putting more WOMEN in winnable seats ? No, that would be too much to ask.

  35. Mogotrone @ #770 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 4:38 pm

    I agree with Shellbell, Green Book is light , feel good entertainment. Go to see ‘If Beale Street could Talk” for real race relations as they stood in the 50/60s and how not much has changed. From the Brilliantly written book by Alec Baldwin . No feel good movie tho.

    THE Alec Baldwin!?!

  36. Ms Downer is trying to avoid being ensnared by the Criminial Code wrt her cheque stunt by repeatedly saying everyone at the Bowling Club knew it was a novelty cheque. Not from her but from the government.

    And on their facebook page.
    But hey, there are so few people that are members of or associated with that Bowling Club to be there or look at the facebook post… so it shouldnt matter.

    It does beg the question, why such a small club got so much money. We at the Stirling Socialists and Communists Cricket Club find it hard to get funds to remove asbestos from the ricketty shack they call a change room. Surely nothing to do with the fact Georgina’s brother played up the road for Mt Lofty W@nkers and Bankers Cricket Club and we used to sledge him without mercy.

  39. Shorten-Was given first an Abbott then a Turnbull and finally a Morrison. Once is an accident,twice is a coincidence but thrice is a conspiracy. He has questions to answer.

  40. Too bad if you are a PBer and you wanted to watch the Oscars “live” tonight. Not even a warning “I am about to disclose Oscar winners.” Typical.

  42. Okay, I’ll take the brains trust’s word for it about Green Book. I must say I’m looking forward to ‘The Favourite’ though.

  45. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #742 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 1:14 pm

    I hear (on the FB grapevine) that a certain high ranking figure from Ballarat is due to be sentenced on Wednesday – I wonder if there will be any media allowed about it?

    Australian media related to that certain high ranking figure from Ballarat is allowed to recommence once the outstanding matters related to said high ranking figure are resolved, presumably at the conclusion of the second set of outstanding matters concerning said figure are resolved, which if your information is right will be on Wednesday, assuming there are not third or subsequent matters for the said individual to deal with.

  48. Psyclaw @ #789 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 4:48 pm

    Too bad if you are a PBer and you wanted to watch the Oscars “live” tonight. Not even a warning “I am about to disclose Oscar winners.” Typical.

    Well, it was ‘Live’ when it was actually ‘Live’ you know. So by tonight it would have been on every news break and all over the internet. But hey, take the opportunity to give the PB Whipping Boy a kick why don’t you!?!

    Sheesh! Some people!

  49. I have no idea but could the sudden Tasmanian resignation be related to the report of a woman who reported to being sexually molested as child?

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