After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
“@GhostWhoVotes
43s44 seconds ago
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#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (0) #auspol”
Thank you Ghost!
Newspoll has been so stable in recent times.
In the 2000s, we would have got a 52 and a 54 week about…
So far Newspoll results seem to indicate one thing only:
No Change To Anything.
Time to order some new shredders 🙂 Nothing much is going to change although the polls will bounce a little and then tighten up a touch once the election is called.
LNP PV@ 37%…..absolutely cannot win an election on that.
NewsPoll for Longman was 51/49
The result was 54/46
That FPV lead for ALP is dire for the LNP
Battle may’ve had a reputation for being difficult but she shines in this little known Donizetti aria:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0Ritpv83wk
Even my non-political friends are just wanting the election over with.
If boats isn’t enough, they’re going to have to pull something remarkable out of their arses in the Budget, considering the headwinds that might be coming…
Yep, it looks like the voters bought the baseball bats some time ago, and have them waiting patiently for Election Day. No amount of baseball caps on Scotty’s head will change anything.
briefly
Yes Phelps and Steggall must love the way Morrison is campaiging for them.
I am really starting to think Abbott is gone – and the more people in Warringah who think that’s possible the more likely it is to happen. Let’s face it, if nearly every non-Abbott voter puts Steggall ahead of him he is toast.
The next government can put his experience in office to appropriate use.
Administrator of Christmas Island maybe?
Actually Ashmore Reef might be a better fit. Early warning person for “boats”.
Paul Murray made a good point. The whole BOATS thing was not in the “Canberra Bubble” where only tragics notice it was played out on FM radio , front pages etc etc in front of the public …………………and it made no difference
Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0)
Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (0)
Morrison: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 48 (+3)
Shorten: Approve 35 (-1) Disapprove 53 (+2)
Preferred PM: Morrison 44 (0) Shorten 35 (0)
The IPSOS poll was really bad timing for Labor.
But the poll might just have done Labor a tremendous failure.
The Coalition’s Canberra Bubble has been pricked.
I tend to think that as the election approaches and voters increasingly focus on the choices, Labor’s vote will improve. We should expect results such as we’ve seen in Victoria and WA, where opinions coalesced in favour of Labor. This will intensify when voters reflect on the complete shambles that has characterised the ATM era. Voters will not – absolutely will not – want to suffer any more of this. They will choose stability and predictable reforms.
Scott Morrison throwing $ around like confetti doesn’t seem to be moving people either. Just like the last days of Howard.
“#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (0) #auspol”
They didn’t accidentally republish the last one did they?
My calculation of 2PP: ALP 0 + 39 + .8*9 + .4*5 + .45*10 = 52.7 –> 53
The most interesting part of this Newspoll will be the questions it asked about AS and perhaps input dividends.
Firstly, how leading the questions are and secondly how people responded.
SkyFoxNews in denial…
The latest Newspoll remains unchanged.
Former Qld Premier @CampbellNewman: ‘I’m somewhat puzzled by it, especially with the Ipsos poll … I still feel like there’s a bit of momentum there with the Prime minister and the Coalition.’
MORE: bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #pmlive
A very good night to you all and sweet dreams.
I wish I had time to look at this, but I think that the Poll Bludger Median statistic is closer to the Newspoll result than the expected margin-of-error from the sample size.
Is this because we all bring a circle of friends / colleagues / relatives to our guess, that means that according to the Central Limits theorem, we are sampling the “vibe” of quite a few different communities (samples)?
Anyway, well done to the Bludgertariat, who got the median spot on.
The median is what I would call a “robust” statistic, in that it:
* quickly discounts guesses such as 99:1 (to either side) and,
* providing the distribution is somewhere between rectangular (all values equally likely – like taking the last 2 numbers of everyone’s phone number from the Sydney White pages) and,
* Gaussian ( the famous bell curve), the median gives a robust estimate of the true (unknown) underlying distribution (this being the ultimate poll, when most people of voting age write on their ballot paper who they want in terms of 2-party-preferred).
Note that polling sampling (like tonight’s Newspoll) has a margin-of-error of around 3%, but aggregating a few different poll samples, as William does in Bludger-track, can give a far smaller MOE.
So, my hypothesis, which for now time precludes me from testing, is that the Bludgertariat median predicts each poll (especially when we name pollsters) with a lower margin of error than we would expect for said poll.
Feel a bit embarrassed explaining statistics on this blog – something like “Bringing cool to Newcastle” or “Teaching your grandmother to such eggs”.
Maybe Peter Costello could go down to Portsea and get some of the yachting chaps to paint their yachts to look like asylum seeker boats and then sail them up to Ashmore Reef for Scotty? 😉
have we moved closer to that dangerous reef, or have we moved farther away from that dangerous reef, mr hornblower ?
just taking a *SECOND SOUNDING* now, capt’n cook !
-a.v.
What’s the secret sauce Newspoll use to get the libs on a 37 primary to 53/47? It’s also possible that a lot of lib voters have, through inertia, kept ticking the Lib box. But when the election is called, they will wake up and head for the doors like everyone else. This could be a bloodbath.
Davidwh @ #100 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 6:37 pm
It might just be in my neck of the woods, but I’ve been saying for a while now that voters are waiting with baseball bats for the election. The knifing of Turnbull was the final straw, and even rusted-on Lib voting friends here are saying the party needs a hard-won lesson.
MSM wrong again.Totally out of touch just like Morrison. Boats 53-47,franking credits 53-47,negative gearing 53-47,Adani still 53-47. These issues are dead in the water for the Coalition. The Oz journos talking to a brick wall.No one reading or listening to them or the Govt.
Go and cry in your chardonnay you ‘think your entitled’ load of shite.
Surely you mean AM radio? FM radio has zero politics (except for Hack on jjj), also no one under 87 listens to AM radio…
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 9:39 pm
NewsPoll for Longman was 51/49
The result was 54/46
Indeed. The polls are not registering the shifts….explaining why Reachtel has done such a huge survey. They can recalibrate their population profiles.
The under-estimation of Labor support could also be a factor in NSW. We’ll soon see.
sprocket
Former Qld Premier @CampbellNewman: ‘I’m somewhat puzzled by it, especially with the Ipsos poll … I still feel like there’s a bit of momentum there with the Prime minister and the Coalition.’
Campbell Newman – an excellent judge of polls and election forecasts.
Fozzie Logic @ #2507 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:35 pm
You should get an ‘Edit’ option, however it’s only available for 10 minutes or so after posting:
No ‘Delete’ option because I think that feature was enabled on the blog sometime later than the edit feature, and because it seems like a relatively low-value addition to the plugin. Workarounds are possible:
1. Don’t post stuff you feel like you may need to delete.
2. Use the ‘Edit’ feature to remove the undesired content and/or request deletion.
3. Disable the extension, refresh the page, and then use the blog’s built-in delete link.
Anton,
The libs primary would be 34 at best with the nationals on at least three.
34 PV in a head to head with labor on 39 is tragic.
Cheers.
From Benson’s article: “The Greens’ primary vote remained unchanged at nine per cent with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation also steady at five per cent with ‘Other’ minor parties rounding out the total with 10 per cent of the vote.”
It would be handy to know what percentage Clive had. On the surface it doesn’t seem he’s got much bang for his buck. Of course, does he care if the whole thing is just a vanity project?
William wrote, re. my undertaking to check for a link to recollections of Annabel Crabb nominating Abbott as her “favourite politician”:
Well, try this, William:
So I guess your “obvious bullshit” isn’t so obvious, after all, eh?
I follow our FM stations on Facebook and the times my phone isn’t synced to the car, listen to FM radio when driving. I’ve not heard boats mentioned at all on FM radio or seen it on their Fb pages.
ABC OTOH may have been a different story.
Abbott had best apply for the post of Prince Philip’s third footman.
Douglas and Milko
I am fascinated with this – it seems the PB median is accurate. I think Late Riser’s PB median for Essential was a bit higher at 54-46 – we shall see.
By the way – as an expert – do you think there is ANY possiblity that the WOW! Signal from 1977 could be something other than a natural phenomenon?
I expect my heart to be broken, like when I asked Kevin Bonham in his role as a naturalist who had explored lots of wild areas of Tasmania whether there could be a small colony of Thylacines in the remote South-West of the State. His answer, sadly, was a definite “No”.
“Scott Morrison throwing $ around like confetti doesn’t seem to be moving people either. Just like the last days of Howard.”
Two of the most persistent myths about “conservative” parties:
1. they care about balancing the budget
2. they want to curb government spending.
The first is a myth pure and simple. While they bash opponents over it, it doesn’t really matter to them. They deliver huge tax cuts to busines, spend billions on pork-barreling targeted constituencies and more billions on purely political projects (e.g. reopening Christmas Island)
And they only hate spending on things that don’t benefit mates, like social security, public hospitals and public schools. Spending stuff they like, for example the military, on special projects that benefit mates, on stuff that deliver votes to them – no worries.
Fozzie Logic
Whatever the band his point was it was played out widely in public in the media. Result………………crickets, That Old Black Magic doesn’t work so well any more.
citizen:
Clive’s robotexting seems to have gone nowhere? Except for pissing off a large number of Australians.
I suppose good Government starts tomorrow.
It’s very gratifying to see the ON numbers shrinking. Presumably, this support is drifting back to the LNP, and yet LNP PV is static, meaning some LNP-affiliated support is gravitating to Labor or other focal points as well. The declining ON vote will likely settle about at 2-3% in the election, as they will not be able to muster candidates in every seat. This will knock them out of Senate races.
Their very weak numbers will also make it easier for the LNP to place them last on their HTVs. This will help send back into the oblivion they so richly deserve.
I suspect that Cliev is ripping out a chunk of Poorline’s vote: the ‘low information’ (ie drongo) voters.
She doesn’t actually say Abbott is her favourite politician, and it was 14 years ago besides — but yes, you have established that “obvious bullshit” was overreach on my part. Mea culpa.
briefly
Do you think the One Nation fade could stop Latham in NSW? A longshot I know.
Looking forward to the cheersquad identifying the seats the Tories will win from Labor and/or the crossbench to make the net gain of three they need to form majority government.
With a primary vote starting with a 3 that looks like mission impossible.
Rocket Rocket @ #110 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 8:11 pm
If the voters of Warringah think Labor is going to win the election anyway, then it is a good chance for them to dump Abbott knowing it won’t affect the basic outcome.
Toby Esterhase @ #138 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
I’d be very happy if this were the case. Like two parasites competing for the host, they eventually cancel one another out. Our parliament would be way better without either of these parties in it.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-boat-battle-fails-to-lift-polls-for-coalition/news-story/581288bd3a5c12eabdddcd66fcef52c8?from=htc_rss&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_content=SocialFlow
Rocket Rocket, Douglas and Milko
I suspect there is a subtlety in PB guessing, namely including an underlying bias adjustment for the pollster into the guess, and perhaps ‘caring’ more about Newspoll. As an aside PB does not always guess the Newspoll result. The January 28 Newspoll, for example, was 53/47 versus the PB guess at 54.5/45.5, which I put down to Christmas drift. 🙂
If nothing in that Newspoll hardly moved then I think the punters already have made up their minds.
After Insiders, I switched over to Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. Azkaban, not to be confused with Azerbaijan, is where the Wizarding parallel world exile people they want to get rid of, their equivalent of Nauru. The prisoners are imorisoned there by the Dementors, agents of whatever dodgy company to which the Ministry of Magic has outsourced the management of its exiles.