After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
[“Favourite… some of them not who you’d necessarily expect… Tony Abbott always thinks things through and gives it a go. He’s not what you expect when you get to know him,” she says
]
Annabell Crabb lacks maturity and is everything wrong with our press gallery.
“When you get to know him” — this is vomit-making.
It just shows her distain for ordinary folk — “if only you knew him like I knew him”.
And she’s on a $250k+ package? Outrageous.
IMO LNP has done well because it is still 53-47 in ALP favour after 2 weeks of corruption stench and incompetence.
Matt31 from earlier today has me worried about the two NT seats – it is just essential that the Coalition do not make any gains from their current 74 seats (73/151 after redistribution).
It just has to be one-way traffic.
Labor defied the odds in 1993 by winning seats in Tasmania and a few elsewhere.
57-43 against Abbott is pretty damning for the RWNJs of the party.More independents in Coalition seats please.
Re: Ipsos and Newspoll. How can 51-49 be called bullshit. If it’s 52-48 at the election, isn’t IPSOS and Newspoll equally as wrong?
The stasis in Newspoll also suggests that voters pay very little attention to the daily ruckus that passes for political debate. They basically ignore nearly all of it. Brand values subsist below the noise. For the Liberals this is bad news. Their brand has been smashed repeatedly ever since 2014, since the mad budget delivered by Hockey and Abbott. It’s gone from bad to worse ever since and the Liberals themselves continue to run messages that damage their own brand. There’s practically nothing they touch that works well for them. They are stuffed.
Some insiders having a conversation
Rocket Rocket: ‘Actually Ashmore Reef might be a better fit. Early warning person for “boats”.’
I get the feeling it may be time for the next edition: “Coal-Fired Haw Haw: The Old Man and the Sea”
Unfortunately it is rather difficult to keep up with the asininity of these dickheads. For example I was thinking about “Coal Fired Haw Haw: Coal-rolling* to the Coolies**” but unfortunately the idea of Haw-haw being Envoy unravelled so quickly that I missed the window.
The advantage of “Coal-Fired Haw Haw: The Old Man and the Sea” is it’s more or less timeless, and (to add further confusion) he eats the Albatross!
* For those not in the know:
– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gcb84qn3mU
– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_coal
** Yes I know that “Coolies” is a racist term for Asians, not Aborigines (I knows me racism, yes I does).
“I suppose good Government starts tomorrow.”
Good Government starts in about 3 months.
nath @ #155 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 9:01 pm
No, because Newspoll doesn’t have the Greens on 13%.
Rocket
I truly hope so.
It would be good to have NSW parliament remain Latham free
Steve777
says:
Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 10:04 pm
“I suppose good Government starts tomorrow.”
Good Government starts in about 3 months.
__________________________
Good Government ended in 1996. There have been occasional outbreaks since but nothing sustained.
sprocket_
I like JTI’s prediction ! I hope he is right.
No doubt Kathariene Murpharoo will be talking about another “reset” tomorrow.
briefly @ #156 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 10:01 pm
This is three Newspolls in a row on the same numbers. Sort of shows the electorate has pretty much made up their minds.
The only thing from here is a give away Budget to buy electors votes.
Ipsos had Labor at just 33 on the primary and Greens at 13, which has never happened at an election… that is why Ipsos was most likely bullshit
Well, there we go. Polling still stuck in concrete around 53/47. Ispos “adventure” that had the RWNJobbies so eager not supported by at least the first of the subsequent polls. 🙂 The best they can spin this is that they have had a tough week, made some tough decisions doing it for Australia and are no further behind….now wait for the Budget lolly!!
At the moment i see no reason to revise my current assumption that we will go into the actual election with the ALP ahead 53/47 or there abouts.
Seems to me that ScoMo’s boat may have sailed without him….then sunk. 🙂
Darren
To be fair to Murphy she did not join the media pile on about Ipsos.
Confessions @ #122 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 9:46 pm
Agree, voters have lost interest. They are just slowly whittling down large trees into baseball bats. They have made up their minds and unless something stupendous happens, it’s good night for the COALition. It will just be a count of the seats remaining for them.
The Oz during the week:
As a new opinion poll last night showed the Opposition Leader has been badly punished after backing independent Kerryn Phelps’s medivac bill, the Prime Minister tapped into voters’ concerns, releasing an opinion piece published in three languages, Mandarin, Arabic and Korean, for community newspapers.
a r @ #160 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 10:04 pm
The female vote will be the other stat to look at.
I’d be surprised if Labor got close to 100 seats.
OK… I’ll bite.
Ipsos
1. Has Morrison’s approval WAY higher than anyone else
2. Has the Labor primary where no one else has it
3. Overplays the Green vote – which, with the 2/10 votes leaking away from Labor, impacts the 2PP
It’s not just about the headline, it’s about the guts of the poll… so Ipsos will be the smartest in the room, or discredited … unless it starts to herd at the end of the campaign.
So it’s not just about being right or wrong, but whose methodology is more sound.
Confessions
Pleasantly though 🙂
a r
says:
Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 10:04 pm
nath @ #155 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 9:01 pm
Re: Ipsos and Newspoll. How can 51-49 be called bullshit. If it’s 52-48 at the election, isn’t IPSOS and Newspoll equally as wrong?
No, because Newspoll doesn’t have the Greens on 13%.
___________________________
they got almost 12 once, it’s not impossible.
Confessions @ #172 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:08 pm
Pleasantly surprised I assume. 😉
100 seats off 53? Rudd got 83 off 52.7
Rockets, I think the slump in ON is inevitable in contests where voters wish to vote for change. It makes little sense to make a protest if change is possible. If there is a mood for change in NSW – there appears to be – than ON will come in short. I think the voting system might still deliver then a seat or two, though I’m guessing as I’m not well-versed in NSW election rules.
Having said that, Latham is a very well-known idiot. He has remarkably little to offer other than objectionable opinions and a talent for negative attention. If ON is sliding – and they seem to lack a machine in NSW – then it’s hard to see what good Latham might do. He is a nut job. He will bring recognition…but the wrong sort of recognition. In any case, Latham and Hanson deserve each other. They are jointly and severally utterly imbecilic.
Nath: “Re: Ipsos and Newspoll. How can 51-49 be called bullshit.”
Ipsos is called bullshit because it behaves in ways that indicate systematic problems. Whatever the problems are, they must be very peculiar otherwise someone would’ve worked it out.
Note that it is still possible that they are doing something which has (or they think has) some power to detect an aggregate-leading signal (which would be a goal for a pollster I should imagine), but whatever they’re doing is quite unreliable. I.e. if they detect the signal they do so only some of the some of the time, but most of the time detect crap (which seems likely to be emergent from their method???), and have no way (beyond comparison to the aggregate) to work out which case it is.
Where’s Mundo?
In the last polls before the Victorian state election the results were Newspoll 53.5 – 46.5, Retchtel 54 – 46, Morgan 54-46 and Yougov 55-45 after two days earlier 53-47.
The actual result after all was said and done was 57.3-42.7. Basically every polling company got the winner right but missed the magnitude.
I suspect the same is happening now.
fair enough theodore. I just thought there was a lot of hostility for a slightly lower than average 2pp. But if people have methodological problems with it I’m not in a position to argue.
nath
JTI must think think the Coalition will do way worse than what the poll says.
“and even rusted-on Lib voting friends here are saying the party needs a hard-won lesson.”
davidwh… that shows you hang with actual Liberals rather than the RWNJ end of the spectrum? 🙂
I have to agree with them. The Libs need a substantial spanking this time around. If it DOESN’t happen then they wont be able to neuter their RWNutjobbie element. And that’s essential for them to become some kind of reasonable opposition, much less be a Govt. If they go back to the Abbott model of opposition they are fwarked.
The problem is that seems to me most of the dickheads in the Libs are in safe seats and may survive even a good thwacking. 🙁
does the poll factor in …..Paladin and Helloworld……if not then worse to come for the libs
Boats are dead. Thank god for that.
Thank you William, but what do you want? Sworn testimony? Even Crabb knew that statement was rubbish, as soon as she uttered it. Nevertheless, utter it she did.
I didn’t say it was considered opinion on her part. In fact I said it was “idiotic”, with the point made that much of what Crabb says and writes is similarly idiotic. She regularly expresses herself in order to shock and tittilate, to be outside the square. She goes for effect over substance.
Not a serious journalist, and I challenge anyone here to supply a substantial example of anything non-trivial she has ever published, beyond the odd apparently sane sentence or so. Hence the “schoolgirl giggle” comment and the characterization of her as (literally) a “Lady-Who-Lunches” (cf. her trivialization of politics via the “Kitchen Cabinet” programs).
No need to even go to how she dresses, which I did not do anyway.
Boats were dead in the last election too.Voters are over it.
Its goodnight from me as well.
I look forward to what the scribes are going to say. Especially the Nine papers 🙂
scandals… corruption
paladin
Hello world
imputation tax credits inquiry
indue card
cash ‘s awu raid and police tip off
“does the poll factor in …..Paladin and Helloworld……if not then worse to come for the libs”
I’d think not. Can take a while for “events” to filter through.
And, people seem to be inoculated against Liberals being dicks. I mean LOTS has happened over the months in terms of bad behavior that should have had minsters dropping like fruit bats on a hot day….and the polling is STILL stuck at 53/47???? People have made up their minds.
I reckon all the Libs have left is Budget Lolly and Fear.
guytaur
I joked that Latham will take over Alan Jones’ show if Jones retires. Getting elected might stop that – but then again I can’t get Jones’ show on the radio in Melbourne so it wouldn’t directly affect me anyway.
What is more (other than boats not moving things – though I think it is a bit early for the Helloworld thing to really bite) the government has been flooding the tv airwaves with lots of ‘your govt is doing fantastic things for you’ ads on jobs, tax and education … and they aren’t impressing anyone either, it seems.
Maybe “boats” cancels scandals.
A bit earlier there was mention of posting Abbott to Christmas Island or Ashmore Reef should he lose his seat.
Possibly a better choice for this role would be JBishop. She could stand lookout for approaching asylum seeker boats. Ten seconds of the famous death stare and the boat would hightail it back to where it came from.
The Libling PV will be lucky to touch 9% in May. Ipsos was just completely wrong. In view of the ructions in NSW and Victoria, it’s likely their vote will decline to 7 or 8%.
I’m quietly optimistic that their Senate votes will far enough that their prefs will elect Labor Senators rather than the other way around.
Rocket Rocket,
The WOW signal is still something we think about when looking for life “out there”. It has not been satisfactorily explained, but maybe just a result of the same phenomenon as an infinite number of monkeys at the typewriter, and one of them comes up writing Shakespeare. It has also been suggested it was a FRB (fast radio burst: something we detect all the time now), but no one is sure.
A bit like polling, if it remains a one-off, then we assume it is a rogue signal that looked like a message from ET, but was just a blip.
I actually work a bit in looking for life-like things “out-there”, but I look for “little green molecules”, rather than for little green men. The molecules in question are the things that life needs to get going. I will give the brief version, as I am rambling a bit, but basically every region in the Milky Way galaxy that forms stars and planets also forms the molecules needed for life to get going, all by itself (see the RNA world).
After many years of assuming that, as Douglas Adams said, “Space is big, really big” and that our chance of finding proof of existence of ET is negligible, I have a faint hope that as we venture out into space, we will start to find such artefacts. Oumuamua is interesting, although my best guess is that it is a rogue asteroid-like object formed purely by nature, but not from out solar system, and hence travelling through too fast to be influenced by gravity in out system (https://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/27/us/mystery-object-solar-system-trnd/index.html).
I guess the other comment I would make, is that nothing happens only once in the Universe – the most probable outcome occurs. We see enormous numbers of stars , galaxies, black holes etc. I am pretty sure life is also very common. Whether it gets past the bacterial stage, whether it ever gets to the stage of communicating with other civilisations, we do not have enough information to tell.
I was lucky a few decades ago to be at a conference with Frank Drake (of the Drake equation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). We socialised, and I feel the same way as he did – we are not sure, but should consider the possibility that “We are not alone”, and ponder all possibilities. They could bite us in the arse if we assume there are no aliens, and Predator or Alien turns up. But, most importantly, we would learn a lot more about science and the universe if we discovered that there was life elsewhere, or the reverse.
Are their similarities between the debate in the 1920s and 1930 about whether nuclear fusion or fission was possible? I do not know, but the implications of answering the question may be not just academic!
B.S.Fairman
If the same happens in NSW and the polls miss out predicting the Berejiklian government’s dumping, a few more Federal Liberals and Nationals may decide they need to spend more time with their families.
Assuming the polls continue with Labor ahead on 2PP until the election, will this be the first time an incumbent government has not won a single poll during an entire term of government (ignoring those outlier, rogue YouGov polls)?
If my memory is correct, the Coalition tied the ALP on one or two polls early in the term, but they haven’t won outright a single poll (again, ignoring the questionable YouGov polls) yet this term.
I believe that Matt Wade’s article about the Australian Issues Survey which indicated that the Coalition have suffered a slump in people’s expectations that they would make their family better off as a result of their policies, down a significant amount since the 2016 election, might be the key to the electorate not jumping back on board with the Coalition and their Boats scare campaign.
People want their wages to start going up again first. I believe they might remember how Labor was able to keep them going up, even in the teeth of the GFC, and so might be putting their store in them to do it again.