Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.

After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,194 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. briefly

    It’s things like tipping off the press about the AWU raid – I was driving to work listening to breathless reporting about this. All I could think was “Who tipped off the press? This will come back to bite them”. Of course the radio news people weren’t saying that!

    And this Georgia Downer thing – don’t they have anyone ‘filtering’ things to prevent such plainly stupid acts (possibly illegal even).

    There just seems to be a massive lack of nous.

    I suppose given that they nearly made Dutton PM ahead of Turnbull and Bishop, that last statement is an oxymoron.

    I was glad Dutton didn’t get up, that would have just been horrible. But a part of me would love to know how the polls went in that alternative universe.

  2. TPOF one reason why I want this government to go down in the worst possible way is the way they’ve managed to do something that no other government has done.

    Piss tens of billions up against the wall on a temporary NBN. Surely their greatest act of criminal incompetence.

  3. Red Ted,

    I had thought that Ipsos was just crap, but then Kevin Bonham said in two of seven cases they led the aggregate (and presumably he has done the hypothesis testing or whatever it is that psephologists do)

    If instead of conventional statistics they are using machine learning (ML) and in particular something called Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) then:

    1 – the Greens = 13 phenomenons can be explained by a well-known phenomenon in GANs called “mode collapse”
    2 – the “patchiness” in performance can perhaps be explained by the distribution found by the GAN having “holes” in it (and in the Ipsos case it might mostly be holes) such that inputs that map to the holes produce rubbish and those that map to the “distribution fragments” (as one might call them) produce very good results

    That said, if they are using ML then I can’t imagine what they are doing and more than likely it’s something quite clever (but perhaps also flawed)

    Ipsos may be willing to take a short-term hit in terms of reliability, if they can calibrate their machine learning algorithm.

    As someone who works a bit in machine learning, I will be watching Ipsos very carefully, to see what eventuates.

  4. In reality Shorten outsmarted Morrison on two points. First he negotiated changes that made the bill acceptable in most people’s views. Second he destroyed the money bill strategy by undertaking the doctors would not be paid. Morrison was left stranded but instead of accepting that he doubled up and end up looking like a fool.

  8. Rocket Rocket,

    I am interested in this developing ability to analyse (remotely through ?spectography) the atmospheres of exoplanets. This as you say may could point to the signatures of life elsewhere.

    This is fantastic stuff, and I have really enjoyed watching it develop from prediction to observation. We are not there yet – we need an infrared interferometric space telescope to clinch it – but once we can observe the atmospheres of extrasolar planets, we can look for that oxygen spectral line signature, and it will tell us very quickly whether life on that planet has got past the anaerobic stage.

  10. D&M, seriously, how long until we can build star destroyers and start creating some kind of galactic empire? I’m more than a little drunk but I’d really like to start getting this galactic conquest underway asap.

  11. nath, I claim the term ‘Libling’ as an original…a pb-inspired neologism. So far, the only others who have adopted it are the Liblings themselves. This doesn’t trouble me. We’re on the same page, me and the nestlings – the cuckoos – of Oz-politics. I understand them. They have no idea about me nor, I suspect, about themselves.

    Otherwise, nath, you say the nicest things.

  14. briefly
    says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 11:07 pm
    nath, I claim the term ‘Libling’ as an original…a pb-inspired neologism. So far, the only others who have adopted it are the Liblings themselves. This doesn’t trouble me. We’re on the same page, me and the nestlings – the cuckoos – of Oz-politics. I understand them. They have no idea about me nor, I suspect, about themselves.
    Otherwise, nath, you say the nicest things.
    __________________________Just this morning you again accused me of ‘pimping out chloe shorten’. a disgusting thing to allege and something that I have never said ever. You keep mentioning it, but those words were of your creation from your mind. not mine.

  16. Late Riser

    Douglas and Milko, Rocket Rocket, if you’re still about. The novel “Dark Forest” changed my mind on ETs and maybe why we haven’t detected them.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dark_Forest

    It is a fantastic trilogy by Liu Cixin. There is a whole new genre of Sci Fi now coming from China, that is just fantastic. I asked my Chinese friend whether the English translation differed from the Cantonese / Mandarin version, had her answer was an emphatic “No”.

    I am really looking forward to more in this genre.

  17. Rockets….they are so clumsy, as you point out. They confirm the views that voters have about pollies. They really are incredibly bad.

  18. It will be entertaining to watch the Tory campaign strategy.

    Most of the cabinet are not able to be let out on their own and a few have work to do in their own seats.

    So the focus will well and truly on Morrison. Can he stay on message and gaffe free for 33 days?

    I can see him running around like the proverbial headless chook desperately trying to put out fires in marginals all over the country.

    For all the sneers and jeers and PPM polling, just remember 2016 where Shorten’s campaign saw a gain of lazy dozen or so seats against the man seen by many as a shoo-in.

  19. The 2014 Budget was the catalyst for the demise of this dysfunctional, idealogy driven government

    The impact of government policy in the wake of sub-prime lending saved the Australian Nation from the ravages elsewhere globally

    Those ravages are still most apparent today – look at where official interest rates are

    It is the responsibility of government to manage across the economic cycle – and supports were still required in 2014 because the private sector had not picked up the slack the government was financing

    Instead we got the right wing idealogy that confidence is restored by withdrawing government supports and allowing “free markets” to drive confidence and recovery

    At precisely the wrong time

    Including because the National statistics confirmed that post 2000 until the GFC the growth of the economy was reliant on private debt and the growth of private debt resulting in inflation and increasing interest rates, so a double whammy given the growth in private debt

    The National statistics today show what they show – that private debt and the wages growth data plus rises in utility costs, home insurance costs and Council Rates have a great number of households under financial stress

    This is confirmed by the sentiment in regards the next interest rate movements (plural) being down, to 1% or lower

    And Lowe commenting continually on wages – since he was appointed Governor of the RBA

    We have inequality

    But, those with financial resource have their own agenda with this government starting with coal and climate

    The science is in

    Obviously there are many more strands, because the greater number of people are questioning the relevance of this dysfunctional government and its right wing austerity ideology

    Who is is serving – and why

    As with the dying days of Howard there are issues upon issues – including concocted issues for perceived political point scoring such as “children overboard” and WMD’s

    The government is not governing because it is not capable of governing – it is dysfunctional

    It can not even command the numbers on the floor of the House which determines the Party of government – so it has closed the Parliament down

  21. nath….you certainly did figuratively pimp out Chloe. I’m not going to reiterate. But you did it twice. You were trying to traduce Shorten…you staple gig. You are a sexist disgrace, an obscenity really….and this is one of your better qualities.

  23. You are the one talking about Chloe Shorten in this way. I said that Bill would give Murdoch her number to ingratiate himself. You have transformed that into this ‘pimping chloe’ bullshit. This is from your mind, not mine. You are the ones saying things about her, not me.

  28. nath @ #215 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 9:37 pm

    In the deluded minds of some, Greens supporters are Liberals in disguise. The Liberals themselves fail to see the resemblance and uniformly preference the ALP ahead of the Greens.

    I actually looked into this, and in Labor vs Green seats, Liberal preferences to Greens actually varies quite a lot depending on the seat and time; but there seems to be a correlation between higher flow of Liberal to Green preferences when there is a higher likelihood of a Green candidate defeating an ALP incumbent, I suspect due to Liberal HTV cards.

    To give an example:
    In 2013, in the Green-held seat of Melbourne, Liberal preferences went about 33% to Greens.

    In 2010, in the Labor-held seat of Melbourne, Liberal preferences went about 80% to Greens.

  29. In my youth my Grandfather counselled that the extreme right was as dangerous to society as was the extreme left

    And there is the similarity between the Coalition of today and the Greens

    Both are unelectable

  30. Nath,

    D&M, seriously, how long until we can build star destroyers and start creating some kind of galactic empire? I’m more than a little drunk but I’d really like to start getting this galactic conquest underway asap.

    I wish I knew the answer! My rational mind tells me that faster-than-light travel is impossible, so we could not even subdue the planet/s around our closest star (alpha Centauri) if they actually exist – result saying they do are subject to better observations before we have a statistically meaningful result.

    On the other hand, H.G. Wells “War in the Air” was written before “heavier than air craft flight” was known to be possible.

    So basically, buggered if know, but I hope it happens soon!

  33. Rocket Rocket,

    Is that the James Webb Space Telescope? I heard people talking about this last year in LA actually.

    No, JWST will be a great (but non-interferometric) infrared telescope (if it ever actually gets off the ground).

    I think the latest name for the type of space infrared interferometric telescope needed to detect free oxygen in planetary atmospheres is TPF (Terrestrial Planet Finder). But I am not following closely, and may have missed new developments.

  34. briefly
    says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 11:22 pm
    ohhh, nath. That’s not an accurate rendition. Not at all. But I’m going no further with this.
    _______________________
    that isd an perfectluy accurate account of what I said. I demand you retract what you said about this.

  36. nath @ #275 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 10:18 pm

    I said that Bill would give Murdoch her number to ingratiate himself.

    Okay.

    You have transformed that into this ‘pimping chloe’ bullshit.

    That’s not much of a transformation. What ‘ingratiating’ circumstance is there for one man to volunteer his spouse’s number to another man, aside from the obvious one that you claim is wrong?

    You admit to saying the thing. You can’t be upset that what you said has been taken at face value.

  39. That’s not much of a transformation. What ‘ingratiating’ circumstance is there for one man to volunteer his spouse’s number to another man, aside from the obvious one that you claim is wrong?
    ____________________
    bullshit. It was a joke, an allusion to Shorten sucking up to Murdoch. Which in fact did not eventuate. Transofrming that into me pimping anybody is totally insane.

  40. nath, I retract nothing. Your constant purpose is to traduce Shorten. You used his wife in a completely fabricated setting to do that. Your depiction went further than you’ve allowed here. You used a sexual innuendo involving a woman – Chloe Shorten – to sneer at Shorten. The entire thing was a falsehood. You’re an absolute f&*&*8 disgrace. You’re a pimp. Go jump.

  43. That’s the best Newspoll till the election for the L/NP. Feed in Helloworld, that unbelievable stunt by a candidate in Mayo, the stupidity of reopening CI. Scummo will now lurch from blunder to blunder in desperation.
    Have to question the ability of those on Insiders today. Plenty to talk about but probably one of the poorest in the last 6 months. Made light of some pretty serious stuff.

  44. I think that we can be pretty sure that a “Star Trek” style Universe brimming with species that look like other races of humans travelling in what appear to be combination battleship-luxury liners that can traverse interstellar distances in days or weeks doesn’t exist.

    Otherwise, Earth would have been colonised by now, probably before humans evolved.

    Earth-sized planets in habitable zones no doubt abound. Microbes almost certainly abound, possibly also complex life. Of course, no one knows.

    And light-speed seems to be a pretty hard and fast limit, built into the structure if the Universe. Interstellar travel by humans, should it ever eventuate, will be sending DNA plus AI & robots on decades- or centuries-long journeys.

  45. You just summon some fake indignation over a stupid comment I made to call me a disgrace. You are the disgrace, using the words ‘pimping chloe’ again and again on here. You are the pimp.

  46. Mr Ed…I agree…! Things will only get worse for the LNP.

    I think we should not underestimate the quality of the data that Labor receives, including both polling data and feedback from face to face campaigns. They would have been quite sure what they were doing on Medevac. The electorate is positive on Medevac, and Labor have not lost by supporting the bill. On the contrary, they will have shored up their credentials, especially with G-leaning voters and Indy-Lib-positive voters. By contrast, the Liberals have campaigned against themselves in key safe-held Lib seats. Labor has helped the Indy campaigns. Very very smart.

  48. Davidwh, re ‘liblings’ a poster in the Deal or No Deal thread asked the same question and commented that it sounded like Briefly was muttering, as if in in a conversation with himself. I think he nailed it

  49. Of course, thinking about it, the Medevac bill has also served to sharpen perceptions of the differences between Labor and Liberal. This has been achieved by the Liberals’ reaction more than by anything else. They have accentuated difference. This can only work in favour of Labor. Voters want not-Lib. They’re gonna get it with Labor. There is also the sheer joy of helping the Indies, who are the natural 3rd-voice competitors of the Liblings. The Indies have accomplished in 5 minutes things the Liblings have not achieved in 25 years. RDN was foaming at the mouth.

  50. The second volume of A W Martin’s superb biography of Menzies has this quote from Clyde Cameron on the dustjacket:

    “… the most impressive orator in Parliament since I first entered it in 1949. He looked like a PM, he behaved like a PM and he had the presence of a PM.”

    The complete opposite of Mr Morrison. Apart from anything else, Menzies didn’t shout. People expect a PM to have a certain calm and gravitas, and not to be jumping around like a frog on a hotplate.

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