After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor
A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.
I think you are amazingly tolerant with Briefly, William.
Pedant, Menzies was shrewd as well as talented. I can only just remember him. He was certainly nothing like Morrison, who is one of the least talented people we’ve ever seen in high office in Australia. He makes Billy MacMahon seem like a serious leader.
What is really amazing is that the Liberals have allowed their ideological fixations to run off with their sense of pragmatic accommodation. The result is they have imposed a kind of embargo on themselves. They are not permitted to discuss in open company the really serious issues that trouble voters. As a result they appear to be in constant denial of reality. They have made themselves politically irrelevant. Menzies was very good at reading what was going on in the electorate and, whenever possible, stealing Labor’s policies and giving them a Lib-inflection. Contemporary Liberals have really adopted a different politics – the rejectionism of Abbott. They have become true reactionaries. Menzies, for all his faults and prejudices, was not the same reactionary that today’s Liberals have become.
It’s only early in Perth so I didn’t see the Newspoll until much later than everyone else.
I’m pleased the IPSOS was an outlier.
Way back a few weeks ago when Keenan quit I predicted Labor might get 100 seats. This is almost a bridge too far even in the prevaling climate. They could get there, especially on the back of the WA & Vic state results where the LNP were smashed but unless the polling is worse than diabolical I’m going to go for 90+. I think the Libs will win less than 50 seats because independents are going to take more than a few.
Please let Abbott & Dutton lose theirs.
Clem, as usual, you also say the nicest things. I’m much obliged, as always, and can never hope to repay your kindness.
So the past 2 weeks have proven that the L-NP have mistaken a black swan for a goose laying golden eggs … I think.
Briefly
I think you have hit the nail on the head. The coalition with the help of Murdoch have pushed the political framing so far from reality that anytime they try do do something, reality hits them in the face, and they just can’t see it coming.
Briefly, don’t thank me it was another poster who said that you sound like a person muttering in a conversation with yourself. Thank him.
Sohar, I think it’s pretty clear that William, much like myself, makes allowances for briefly.
Roger and Ophuph, I think the votes have not yet really started to swirl around. They will, imo. As the election itself approaches the disengaged will really focus, as they always must, and will choose change. The pressure for this will be overwhelming, as it was in WA in 2017. None but the most rusted-on could hope for the farce that is the ATM regime to continue. They are just hopelessly bad at governing and at politics too. It’s not possible to have any confidence in them at any level.
nath says Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 11:05 pm
The only things stopping us are commitment, imagination and the laws of physics.
clem, I’m much obliged for your sagacity and your endless considerations. Please excuse me. I’m just a humble bludger. You attend me all the time, offering your wisdom and compliments. I can never reciprocate and should be held quite thoughtless by comparison.
Just putting you straight Briefly. I don’t want you to think it was me saying that you you are a bit un hinged, when it was somebody else. There seems to be a lot of that around here of late.
I’ll spin it: The crossbench should propose a no-confidence motion and send this useless government to the GG, after being mired in sleaze for the last 2 weeks.
Why are they protecting these crooks? Anyone who isn’t crooked has already resigned. Yeah yeah I know you said you wouldn’t – but what earthly point is there to us having to endure these zeroes who can’t even rustle a majority?
It’s a waste of time – put an end to it.
Bandt has been saying it for weeks
Clem, your attentions are very generous and most well-taken. Thank you for your solicitations. I Don’t deserve them, I’m sure, and am again in your debt.
“Why are they protecting these crooks? ”
Because most of them are Tory-lite, except Katter who is Tory-nuts.
This poll should have Scummo heaving a sigh of relief. The last time the LNP got more than one poll to within 51/49, they knifed their leader.
The press release has gone out. Didn’t work last time. Won’t work this time. It’s a place filler to say we have a climate policy too, but it will be cheaper, faster, and better. But it isn’t.
https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-announces-2-billion-solutions-fund-to-fight-climate-change&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjSpO_Yv9TgAhVSWX0KHXGMBZIQqOcBMAB6BAgAEAI&usg=AOvVaw0oNYIB4b_-4T18DontMU6M
lefty-e…I doubt that a no confidence motion will be moved. There is an expectation that a budget and an address-in-reply will be delivered. If anything, Labor would like to have more sitting days rather than fewer. This will enable them to show they intend to govern; to draw the contrast between themselves and the Liberals, who are intent on avoiding their responsibility.
Parliament is a total shambles. Every sitting day is a day that helps Labor/hurts the Liberals.
I’m celebrating tonight…gotta betta job… bout time too…lotsa fun ahead…
BK says Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 9:15 pm
Well newspoll didn’t get worse, so some might count that as good news for the government.
Lefty-e…..It doesn’t surprise though that the Liblings would like an immediate election. The longer the Parliament lasts the better it is for the Indies, the better it is for Labor….the better it is for the Liblings’ competitors….they better they do in the election, the tougher it will be for the Liblings in the next Parliament.
One day, maybe after the coming election, the Liblings will seriously ask themselves where they have gone wrong. There has been a spectacular implosion, now lasting more than 20 years, on the Right in Australian politics. Not one single Right-affiliated vote has been collected by the Liblings, who have focused on trying to shave support from Labor. Why have they failed to attract any of the homeless votes from the Right? And now their vote is receding. What will they do?
The Australian front page warns of a “$650 million hit” by Labor on the banks… to compensate victims of those same banks.
Are they insane at The Oz, or do they really believe this is bad news for Labor?
Re no-confidence motions, parliament has risen until April 2. A campaign has to be at least 33 days long so even assuming the crossbench backed such a motion, it would only bring the election forward by a week or maybe two – unless the government decided to call a half-Senate election and not go to the general at the same time (which would be extremely silly even by its standards.)
This brings to mind a vision of Supreme Leader Morrison, in full Kim Jong-un mode, standing on the bridge of a warship, arm outstretched and ordering a flotilla of asylum seeker boats to turn back around; which of course they immediately do, being overawed at his majestic ability to command and cowed by his mere presence. Meanwhile on board the flagship, the propaganda film crew capture the look of wonder on the faces of dozens of Admirals as they struggle to comprehend the tactical and strategic brilliance of our leader as he grandly directs his all conquering fleet.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/24/alain-finkielkraut-winds-of-antisemitism-in-europe-gilets-jaune
The French philosopher Alain Finkielkraut is at home: an airy apartment with walls packed floor to ceiling with books in one of Paris’s more chic arrondissements.
Today, however, the writer and commentator does not feel entirely at home in France. That feeling was heightened dramatically when, last weekend, a gilet jaune protester shouted at him that he was a “dirty Zionist shit” who should “go back to Tel Aviv”.
“I am home, but not to these people. Those who shout ‘go back to Tel Aviv’ believe Israel is stolen land, so what they are saying is that I have no place here, I have no place there … that I have no place on earth,” he told the Observer.
It is all part of what he calls “new winds blowing across Europe. Where are they taking us? Nobody knows,” he said. “It’s very worrying.”
The sharp rise in antisemitism and racism in France is a “new turn of events” that could be linked to the gilets jaunes demonstrations that have swept the country, according to President Emmanuel Macron. Swastikas have been daubed on public buildings, on Jewish gravestones and on postboxes bearing portraits of the late Simone Veil, a politician and Holocaust survivor. The German word Juden (Jews) was sprayed on the window of a bagel bakery on the Île Saint-Louis, in the heart of Paris.
In a video recorded of the verbal assault on Finkielkraut, whose Polish-Jewish father survived deportation from Paris to the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp in 1942, a man whose face is contorted with rage screams: “We are the French people, France is ours.” At one point the protester, who was later arrested, shows his keffiyeh, a traditional Arab scarf.
The truculence, the violence, the division on political, racial and economic grounds are all very deeply disturbing. This is fear turning on itself. It is anger that could catch fire.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/24/newspoll-53-47-labor-16/comment-page-7/#comment-3083339
The Greens have no control over the election date, other than supporting a no confidence motion in the current government (which they would do), as they are not in government. The Greens would benefit most from a Senate focused Senate campaign, which has a much less two-party media coverage and thus vote, which can only really occur if the House of Reps election is held separately (which by now means later than the half-Senate election). The high Greens result from the 2014 WA half-Senate election and the high minor party result from the separate half-Senate elections 1964-70 provide evidence for this.
The Green have attracted very few right-wing votes because they are a left wing party. It is not the right wing voters they seek to represent because they do not share policy aims with them. The ALP moved right in the 1980s and 1990s and that left a segment of Australia`s left up for grabs. Initially the Democrats were beneficiaries, however, the Democrats were divided between the left and the centre and thus the left-wing voters dissatisfied with the ALP moved to the Greens and increased due actions taken by the ALP that dissatisfied many left wing voters.
The increase in political parties, partly driven by Group Ticket Voting creating opportunities for preference snowballing victories, has provided increased competition for the Greens. Reason, Animal Justice and in Victoria the Victorian Socialists have increased competition for the left wing vote and won voters off the Greens who then usually return on preferences, much as the Greens do with the ALP. The ALP has also moved slightly to the left, with the trend of politics in the post-GFC world, and is currently well run and in Opposition and this has swung some voters from the Greens to the ALP who will likely swing back to the Greens in once the ALP has been in government a while.
bc,
Much better than what I had in mind, which was a few nautical poses with binoculars and looking at maps 🙂
Ttfab, it’s highly doubtful that a Senate-only campaign would advantage the Gs. The 2014 WA rerun election was anomalous, for several reasons.
I know the Gs like to see themselves as leftish. But the fact is they do not challenge the Liberals. They challenge Labor. This reduces their effectiveness and drives away potential support. They would do far better if they appealed to disaffected Lib-affiliated voters. The Right hegemony is breaking down. It’s a magnificent opportunity for an environmental party, but it’s one the Gs have chosen not to take up. As a result they may disappear almost entirely.
Many of the good people of this ‘fare’ land have plenty, strong opinions and importantly, no debt. Some just think that they are part of this group.
Some of the good people are able to see beyond their next fare and sometimes consider that all is not fair.
Plenty of the good people roll along and keep maxing out their credit. This habit has formed over the last forty years. These good people live beyond their means because house price increases have allowed them to do so.
Debt up to the limit and over, stagnant wages, lack of prospects and stress are Morrison and the LNP’s huge obstacle.
A bunch of crooks are in government but no respite for the debted. Vote the bastards out.
Morrison, the genius in his own manner, will throw the kitchen sink at the debted to be re-elected. Morrison won’t succeed.
Fraser and Howard succeeded.
The debted don’t really care that the government are crook. They don’t even know their representatives by name. The debted can’t and won’t seperate the levels of government as seperate entities.
Morrison and this government are the most inept team on the paddock in my lifetime.
Will Morrison be prepared to risk all to be re-elected? And will the voters allow Morrison a long risk?
The polls suggest no chance for Morrison and the crooks.
The MSM will spin this disaster of a government because of their own debts. The debt free MSM have departed with as much as their reputations as they are able.
A long wait till parliament sits again, a long wait till the election, a decisive sharp result and a long wait to see the unbeknown fortunes of a new Labor government.
The Oz is now moving to the upcoming budget to boost the Libs. Since when has a budget ever changed the opinion polls.Hardly ever.
I’ve run this through BludgerTrack, with unexciting results. Haven’t done the leadership ratings yet though.
Does anyone have any idea what Shorten could or would do to Rupert?
It seems to me that Shorten has made the right move in snubbing Rupert (not accepting the invite to come to New York to negotiate terms) and Rupert is pissed with that.
It’d be nice to see Shorten not just ignore Rupert but start damaging his empire.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/24/newspoll-53-47-labor-16/comment-page-7/#comment-3083357
What are these reasons you believe that the 2014 WA half-Senate election election was an anomaly in the Green vote being at the high end of the current Green vote range, when the same thing happened with the DLP vote in the separate half-Senate elections of 1964-1970? Separate half-Senate elections inherently lack the two-party media coverage dynamic of the single member chamber of government House of Reps elections and thus medium sized parties (such as the Greens now or the DLP in the 1960s) get closer to their fair share of media coverage and thus do better. The Greens and DLP`s comparison being in size, not political position.
The Greens are a party of largely left-wing policies and left-wing people. The ALP does not have a monopoly on the left. The Greens keep many left-wing ideas in the political arena that the ALP do not. The Greens have a model, compete with but still preference the ALP, that allows intra-left competition without undermining combined left vote. The Greens are not stopping a more centre-right pro-environment party forming to get the votes of moderately right-wing pro-environment voters, this could indeed be in the early stages of happening with the surge in independents in safer Coalition seats.
I’m not saying this is the whole story, but there was that business about Joe Bullock’s off-colour remarks about Louise Pratt’s sexuality coming out a few days before the poll, feeding into anger that it was Bullock rather than Pratt at the top of the ticket (and Pratt was duly defeated), together with sympathy for Scott Ludlam after he appeared to lose his seat at the original election.
FUN FACTS FOR ANYONE BUT COALITION (ABC) VOTERS
According to the 51 NEWSPOLL polls registered on PB since the last election, the average result has been ALP 52.9/47.1 and the last three polls have been, you guessed it, 53/47
NEWSPOLL SINCE 2016 ELECTION
NEWSPOLLS
(TOTAL 51)
56/44 2 times
55/ 45 5 times
54/ 46 7 times
53/ 47 19 times
52/ 48 10 times
51/ 49 6 times
50/ 50 twice
MEAN 52.9/ 47.1
MODE 53/ 47
The Coalition ‘may have some trouble’ winning the next election and this queue will get longer unless the sky falls in or Noah is a relative of Schomo
Douglas and Milko @ #119 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 9:44 pm
Thanks D&M – though Newcastle is already pretty cool.
William Bowe @ #333 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:04 am
I can agree with that. In that election I put Ludlam in #1, followed by the rest of the Labor candidates, and Bullock dead last.
simon holmes à court
5h5 hours ago
♂️ preparing for a talk on wednesday night about australia’s energy policy quagmire.
{screws up notes, grabs new sheet of paper} 😀
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/coalition-to-announce-35b-climate-solution-fund-20190224-h1bnjx
Joe Bullock was a dud and it should have been Louise Pratt at the topic of the ticket. By saying that Labor should have done better in that election though. Pratt was put at 2nd spot which was hardly ‘unwinnable’ and two seats should have been easily won by Labor.
Pratt was put on fourth spot at the full Senate election at the last election not an improvement in her position although the ticket was much stronger with Pat Dodson replacing the waste of space Bullock. This time though she was elected.
Morning all. Newspoll largely as predicted. Ipsos was a blip.
Labor should demand more sitting days, for the nation’s interests and its own.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/sluice-gate-money-laundering-and-real-estate-shape-as-an-election-issue/
Meanwhile the spins doctors at the Australian open with their exploration of the 53/47 News Poll thus –
“Scott Morrison was correct last week when he told MPs they could not win on the single issue of border protection” Dennis Shanahan. But then this from another spin doctor in the same paper
“Scott Morrison’s all-out assault on Labor over the softening of border protection ..has boosted his credentials on national border security but failed to lift the Govt’s stocks with voters” Simon Benson.
Benson then goes on to tell front page readers that “almost one in five Labor voters (are) now backing Mr Morrison over Bill Shorten as the more trusted steward of the nation’s finances” and it goes downhill from there.
Oh your wondering about Chris Kenny ? AWOL from the Monday bleating. Wonder why.
Fear not fearful Coalition supporters. The BOATS! did not work out but Dennis Shanana has spotted another Coalition wunderwaffe on the horizon.
.
.
Budget could give PM the edge
DENNIS SHANAHAN
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/healthy-budget-could-give-morrison-the-edge/news-story/d76cac3a0ae0c370a5af4344ec4c509c
It’s funny how the writers at The Australian think they give the impression of being fair-minded.
EB
Triple 😆 for Benson’s headline.
THE COALITION CHUM BUCKET EPISODE 10
https://twitter.com/StephenJonesMP/status/1099741583820259328
poroti @ #342 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 6:44 am
He works hard for his 350k+ a year, poroti. So you better treat him right! 😉
poroti @ #344 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 6:46 am
From The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight. 🙂
The GG has some comedy gold today. Come on down Mr Kenny.
Jokers on Insiders were claiming Porter was doing a great job prosecuting government’s case. Apparently he had “cut through”.
Now Newspoll and West Australian’s expose on his rorts come out and we get to see how much of a joke media is.
Climate solutions fund? Another direct action bucket of money which will do nothing to change behaviour.
A blue leaflet immediately springs to mind.