Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.

After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,194 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Pedant, Menzies was shrewd as well as talented. I can only just remember him. He was certainly nothing like Morrison, who is one of the least talented people we’ve ever seen in high office in Australia. He makes Billy MacMahon seem like a serious leader.

    What is really amazing is that the Liberals have allowed their ideological fixations to run off with their sense of pragmatic accommodation. The result is they have imposed a kind of embargo on themselves. They are not permitted to discuss in open company the really serious issues that trouble voters. As a result they appear to be in constant denial of reality. They have made themselves politically irrelevant. Menzies was very good at reading what was going on in the electorate and, whenever possible, stealing Labor’s policies and giving them a Lib-inflection. Contemporary Liberals have really adopted a different politics – the rejectionism of Abbott. They have become true reactionaries. Menzies, for all his faults and prejudices, was not the same reactionary that today’s Liberals have become.

  3. It’s only early in Perth so I didn’t see the Newspoll until much later than everyone else.
    I’m pleased the IPSOS was an outlier.

    Way back a few weeks ago when Keenan quit I predicted Labor might get 100 seats. This is almost a bridge too far even in the prevaling climate. They could get there, especially on the back of the WA & Vic state results where the LNP were smashed but unless the polling is worse than diabolical I’m going to go for 90+. I think the Libs will win less than 50 seats because independents are going to take more than a few.
    Please let Abbott & Dutton lose theirs.

  6. Briefly
    I think you have hit the nail on the head. The coalition with the help of Murdoch have pushed the political framing so far from reality that anytime they try do do something, reality hits them in the face, and they just can’t see it coming.

  7. Briefly, don’t thank me it was another poster who said that you sound like a person muttering in a conversation with yourself. Thank him.

  9. Roger and Ophuph, I think the votes have not yet really started to swirl around. They will, imo. As the election itself approaches the disengaged will really focus, as they always must, and will choose change. The pressure for this will be overwhelming, as it was in WA in 2017. None but the most rusted-on could hope for the farce that is the ATM regime to continue. They are just hopelessly bad at governing and at politics too. It’s not possible to have any confidence in them at any level.

  10. nath says Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 11:05 pm

    D&M, seriously, how long until we can build star destroyers and start creating some kind of galactic empire? I’m more than a little drunk but I’d really like to start getting this galactic conquest underway asap.

    The only things stopping us are commitment, imagination and the laws of physics.

  11. clem, I’m much obliged for your sagacity and your endless considerations. Please excuse me. I’m just a humble bludger. You attend me all the time, offering your wisdom and compliments. I can never reciprocate and should be held quite thoughtless by comparison.

  12. Just putting you straight Briefly. I don’t want you to think it was me saying that you you are a bit un hinged, when it was somebody else. There seems to be a lot of that around here of late.

  13. I’ll spin it: The crossbench should propose a no-confidence motion and send this useless government to the GG, after being mired in sleaze for the last 2 weeks.

    Why are they protecting these crooks? Anyone who isn’t crooked has already resigned. Yeah yeah I know you said you wouldn’t – but what earthly point is there to us having to endure these zeroes who can’t even rustle a majority?

    It’s a waste of time – put an end to it.

    Bandt has been saying it for weeks

  14. Clem, your attentions are very generous and most well-taken. Thank you for your solicitations. I Don’t deserve them, I’m sure, and am again in your debt.

  15. “Why are they protecting these crooks? ”

    Because most of them are Tory-lite, except Katter who is Tory-nuts.

    This poll should have Scummo heaving a sigh of relief. The last time the LNP got more than one poll to within 51/49, they knifed their leader.

  17. lefty-e…I doubt that a no confidence motion will be moved. There is an expectation that a budget and an address-in-reply will be delivered. If anything, Labor would like to have more sitting days rather than fewer. This will enable them to show they intend to govern; to draw the contrast between themselves and the Liberals, who are intent on avoiding their responsibility.

    Parliament is a total shambles. Every sitting day is a day that helps Labor/hurts the Liberals.

  19. BK says Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 9:15 pm

    So, has it STILL been a good two weeks for the government?

    Well newspoll didn’t get worse, so some might count that as good news for the government.

  20. Lefty-e…..It doesn’t surprise though that the Liblings would like an immediate election. The longer the Parliament lasts the better it is for the Indies, the better it is for Labor….the better it is for the Liblings’ competitors….they better they do in the election, the tougher it will be for the Liblings in the next Parliament.

    One day, maybe after the coming election, the Liblings will seriously ask themselves where they have gone wrong. There has been a spectacular implosion, now lasting more than 20 years, on the Right in Australian politics. Not one single Right-affiliated vote has been collected by the Liblings, who have focused on trying to shave support from Labor. Why have they failed to attract any of the homeless votes from the Right? And now their vote is receding. What will they do?

  21. The Australian front page warns of a “$650 million hit” by Labor on the banks… to compensate victims of those same banks.

    Are they insane at The Oz, or do they really believe this is bad news for Labor?

  22. Re no-confidence motions, parliament has risen until April 2. A campaign has to be at least 33 days long so even assuming the crossbench backed such a motion, it would only bring the election forward by a week or maybe two – unless the government decided to call a half-Senate election and not go to the general at the same time (which would be extremely silly even by its standards.)

  23. The trick will be how to get the “on water matters” on the front page. What they need is a lot of boats on the horizon, that Morrison can heroically turn back.

    This brings to mind a vision of Supreme Leader Morrison, in full Kim Jong-un mode, standing on the bridge of a warship, arm outstretched and ordering a flotilla of asylum seeker boats to turn back around; which of course they immediately do, being overawed at his majestic ability to command and cowed by his mere presence. Meanwhile on board the flagship, the propaganda film crew capture the look of wonder on the faces of dozens of Admirals as they struggle to comprehend the tactical and strategic brilliance of our leader as he grandly directs his all conquering fleet.

  24. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/24/alain-finkielkraut-winds-of-antisemitism-in-europe-gilets-jaune

    The French philosopher Alain Finkielkraut is at home: an airy apartment with walls packed floor to ceiling with books in one of Paris’s more chic arrondissements.

    Today, however, the writer and commentator does not feel entirely at home in France. That feeling was heightened dramatically when, last weekend, a gilet jaune protester shouted at him that he was a “dirty Zionist shit” who should “go back to Tel Aviv”.

    “I am home, but not to these people. Those who shout ‘go back to Tel Aviv’ believe Israel is stolen land, so what they are saying is that I have no place here, I have no place there … that I have no place on earth,” he told the Observer.

    It is all part of what he calls “new winds blowing across Europe. Where are they taking us? Nobody knows,” he said. “It’s very worrying.”

    The sharp rise in antisemitism and racism in France is a “new turn of events” that could be linked to the gilets jaunes demonstrations that have swept the country, according to President Emmanuel Macron. Swastikas have been daubed on public buildings, on Jewish gravestones and on postboxes bearing portraits of the late Simone Veil, a politician and Holocaust survivor. The German word Juden (Jews) was sprayed on the window of a bagel bakery on the Île Saint-Louis, in the heart of Paris.

    In a video recorded of the verbal assault on Finkielkraut, whose Polish-Jewish father survived deportation from Paris to the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp in 1942, a man whose face is contorted with rage screams: “We are the French people, France is ours.” At one point the protester, who was later arrested, shows his keffiyeh, a traditional Arab scarf.

    The truculence, the violence, the division on political, racial and economic grounds are all very deeply disturbing. This is fear turning on itself. It is anger that could catch fire.

  25. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/24/newspoll-53-47-labor-16/comment-page-7/#comment-3083339

    The Greens have no control over the election date, other than supporting a no confidence motion in the current government (which they would do), as they are not in government. The Greens would benefit most from a Senate focused Senate campaign, which has a much less two-party media coverage and thus vote, which can only really occur if the House of Reps election is held separately (which by now means later than the half-Senate election). The high Greens result from the 2014 WA half-Senate election and the high minor party result from the separate half-Senate elections 1964-70 provide evidence for this.

    The Green have attracted very few right-wing votes because they are a left wing party. It is not the right wing voters they seek to represent because they do not share policy aims with them. The ALP moved right in the 1980s and 1990s and that left a segment of Australia`s left up for grabs. Initially the Democrats were beneficiaries, however, the Democrats were divided between the left and the centre and thus the left-wing voters dissatisfied with the ALP moved to the Greens and increased due actions taken by the ALP that dissatisfied many left wing voters.

    The increase in political parties, partly driven by Group Ticket Voting creating opportunities for preference snowballing victories, has provided increased competition for the Greens. Reason, Animal Justice and in Victoria the Victorian Socialists have increased competition for the left wing vote and won voters off the Greens who then usually return on preferences, much as the Greens do with the ALP. The ALP has also moved slightly to the left, with the trend of politics in the post-GFC world, and is currently well run and in Opposition and this has swung some voters from the Greens to the ALP who will likely swing back to the Greens in once the ALP has been in government a while.

  27. Ttfab, it’s highly doubtful that a Senate-only campaign would advantage the Gs. The 2014 WA rerun election was anomalous, for several reasons.

    I know the Gs like to see themselves as leftish. But the fact is they do not challenge the Liberals. They challenge Labor. This reduces their effectiveness and drives away potential support. They would do far better if they appealed to disaffected Lib-affiliated voters. The Right hegemony is breaking down. It’s a magnificent opportunity for an environmental party, but it’s one the Gs have chosen not to take up. As a result they may disappear almost entirely.

  28. Many of the good people of this ‘fare’ land have plenty, strong opinions and importantly, no debt. Some just think that they are part of this group.
    Some of the good people are able to see beyond their next fare and sometimes consider that all is not fair.
    Plenty of the good people roll along and keep maxing out their credit. This habit has formed over the last forty years. These good people live beyond their means because house price increases have allowed them to do so.
    Debt up to the limit and over, stagnant wages, lack of prospects and stress are Morrison and the LNP’s huge obstacle.
    A bunch of crooks are in government but no respite for the debted. Vote the bastards out.
    Morrison, the genius in his own manner, will throw the kitchen sink at the debted to be re-elected. Morrison won’t succeed.
    Fraser and Howard succeeded.
    The debted don’t really care that the government are crook. They don’t even know their representatives by name. The debted can’t and won’t seperate the levels of government as seperate entities.
    Morrison and this government are the most inept team on the paddock in my lifetime.
    Will Morrison be prepared to risk all to be re-elected? And will the voters allow Morrison a long risk?
    The polls suggest no chance for Morrison and the crooks.
    The MSM will spin this disaster of a government because of their own debts. The debt free MSM have departed with as much as their reputations as they are able.
    A long wait till parliament sits again, a long wait till the election, a decisive sharp result and a long wait to see the unbeknown fortunes of a new Labor government.

  29. The Oz is now moving to the upcoming budget to boost the Libs. Since when has a budget ever changed the opinion polls.Hardly ever.

  31. Does anyone have any idea what Shorten could or would do to Rupert?
    It seems to me that Shorten has made the right move in snubbing Rupert (not accepting the invite to come to New York to negotiate terms) and Rupert is pissed with that.
    It’d be nice to see Shorten not just ignore Rupert but start damaging his empire.

  32. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/24/newspoll-53-47-labor-16/comment-page-7/#comment-3083357

    What are these reasons you believe that the 2014 WA half-Senate election election was an anomaly in the Green vote being at the high end of the current Green vote range, when the same thing happened with the DLP vote in the separate half-Senate elections of 1964-1970? Separate half-Senate elections inherently lack the two-party media coverage dynamic of the single member chamber of government House of Reps elections and thus medium sized parties (such as the Greens now or the DLP in the 1960s) get closer to their fair share of media coverage and thus do better. The Greens and DLP`s comparison being in size, not political position.

    The Greens are a party of largely left-wing policies and left-wing people. The ALP does not have a monopoly on the left. The Greens keep many left-wing ideas in the political arena that the ALP do not. The Greens have a model, compete with but still preference the ALP, that allows intra-left competition without undermining combined left vote. The Greens are not stopping a more centre-right pro-environment party forming to get the votes of moderately right-wing pro-environment voters, this could indeed be in the early stages of happening with the surge in independents in safer Coalition seats.

  33. What are these reasons you believe that the 2014 WA half-Senate election election was an anomaly in the Green vote being at the high end of the current Green vote range, when the same thing happened with the DLP vote in the separate half-Senate elections of 1964-1970?

    I’m not saying this is the whole story, but there was that business about Joe Bullock’s off-colour remarks about Louise Pratt’s sexuality coming out a few days before the poll, feeding into anger that it was Bullock rather than Pratt at the top of the ticket (and Pratt was duly defeated), together with sympathy for Scott Ludlam after he appeared to lose his seat at the original election.

  34. FUN FACTS FOR ANYONE BUT COALITION (ABC) VOTERS
    According to the 51 NEWSPOLL polls registered on PB since the last election, the average result has been ALP 52.9/47.1 and the last three polls have been, you guessed it, 53/47

    NEWSPOLL SINCE 2016 ELECTION

    NEWSPOLLS
    (TOTAL 51)
    56/44 2 times
    55/ 45 5 times
    54/ 46 7 times
    53/ 47 19 times
    52/ 48 10 times
    51/ 49 6 times
    50/ 50 twice
    MEAN 52.9/ 47.1
    MODE 53/ 47

    The Coalition ‘may have some trouble’ winning the next election and this queue will get longer unless the sky falls in or Noah is a relative of Schomo

  35. Douglas and Milko @ #119 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 9:44 pm

    I wish I had time to look at this, but I think that the Poll Bludger Median statistic is closer to the Newspoll result than the expected margin-of-error from the sample size.

    Is this because we all bring a circle of friends / colleagues / relatives to our guess, that means that according to the Central Limits theorem, we are sampling the “vibe” of quite a few different communities (samples)?

    Anyway, well done to the Bludgertariat, who got the median spot on.

    The median is what I would call a “robust” statistic, in that it:
    * quickly discounts guesses such as 99:1 (to either side) and,
    * providing the distribution is somewhere between rectangular (all values equally likely – like taking the last 2 numbers of everyone’s phone number from the Sydney White pages) and,
    * Gaussian ( the famous bell curve), the median gives a robust estimate of the true (unknown) underlying distribution (this being the ultimate poll, when most people of voting age write on their ballot paper who they want in terms of 2-party-preferred).

    Note that polling sampling (like tonight’s Newspoll) has a margin-of-error of around 3%, but aggregating a few different poll samples, as William does in Bludger-track, can give a far smaller MOE.

    So, my hypothesis, which for now time precludes me from testing, is that the Bludgertariat median predicts each poll (especially when we name pollsters) with a lower margin of error than we would expect for said poll.

    Feel a bit embarrassed explaining statistics on this blog – something like “Bringing cool to Newcastle” or “Teaching your grandmother to such eggs”.

    Thanks D&M – though Newcastle is already pretty cool.

  36. William Bowe @ #333 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:04 am

    What are these reasons you believe that the 2014 WA half-Senate election election was an anomaly in the Green vote being at the high end of the current Green vote range, when the same thing happened with the DLP vote in the separate half-Senate elections of 1964-1970?

    I’m not saying this is the whole story, but there was that business about Joe Bullock’s off-colour remarks about Louise Pratt’s sexuality coming out a few days before the poll, feeding into anger that it was Bullock rather than Pratt at the top of the ticket (and Pratt was duly defeated), together with sympathy for Scott Ludlam after he appeared to lose his seat at the original election.

    I can agree with that. In that election I put Ludlam in #1, followed by the rest of the Labor candidates, and Bullock dead last.

  37. simon holmes à court
    5h5 hours ago

    ‍♂️ preparing for a talk on wednesday night about australia’s energy policy quagmire.
    {screws up notes, grabs new sheet of paper} 😀

    The Morrison government will take the climate change fight to Labor today – and try to shore up some of its own seats – by pledging up to $3.5 billion in carbon abatement and other environmental measures, including a $2 billion extension to the Abbott’s government’s emissions reduction fund.

    Despite insisting repeatedly that Australia was on track to meet its 2030 Paris emissions reduction target “in a canter”, Prime Minister Scott Morrison will unveil the new spending, which he says will ensure Australia meets the target while not damaging its economy.

    “We don’t believe we have to choose between our environment and our economy. We don’t believe such an outlook is measured, balanced, practical or helpful,”‘ he will say at a speech in Melbourne.
    …
    The new policy to be unveiled today will lock in the Paris commitment as Coalition policy and comes following behind-the-scenes pressure led by moderate Liberals.

    The biggest component will be the revival of the emissions reduction fund, which is budget money used effectively to purchase carbon dioxide emissions.

    The fund has about $250 million left and was not funded beyond 2020. Mr Morrison will commit another $2 billion at $200 million a year, between 2020 and 2030. The fund will be renamed the Climate Solutions Fund and its remit will be broad.

    …
    The Climate Solutions Fund will be available for numerous uses ranging from paying farmers to revegetate degraded land and drought-proof their farms, to subsidising small businesses to install energy efficiency lighting and equipment.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/coalition-to-announce-35b-climate-solution-fund-20190224-h1bnjx

  38. Joe Bullock was a dud and it should have been Louise Pratt at the topic of the ticket. By saying that Labor should have done better in that election though. Pratt was put at 2nd spot which was hardly ‘unwinnable’ and two seats should have been easily won by Labor.

    Pratt was put on fourth spot at the full Senate election at the last election not an improvement in her position although the ticket was much stronger with Pat Dodson replacing the waste of space Bullock. This time though she was elected.

  39. Morning all. Newspoll largely as predicted. Ipsos was a blip.

    Labor should demand more sitting days, for the nation’s interests and its own.

  40. https://www.michaelwest.com.au/sluice-gate-money-laundering-and-real-estate-shape-as-an-election-issue/

    “Most Aussies, especially first homebuyers, would be furious to learn they’re competing for houses with people who are trying to wash the proceeds of illicit drug sales, fraud or corruption,” writes financial crime expert Nathan Lynch.

    Yet incredibly – as global money laundering authorities are increasingly annoyed about Australia’s failure and dithering on compliance – real estate agents, lawyers and accountants still remain free from money laundering laws which were supposed to be introduced 12 years ago.

    In the story below, Lynch, a financial crime expert from Thomson Reuters, examines how the government has been making cuts to the Australian Federal Police and ASIC as Australia falls further behind the rest of the world on fighting financial crime.

    Two years ago, this website revealed how the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) had put Australia on a watch-list for its failures to comply. For five years, we have been contacting the Minister for Justice to ask when its promised legislation would be enacted, only to be stonewalled.

    Now however it is shaping up as an election issue in the wake of the systemic fraud unveiled by the Banking Royal Commission.

  41. Meanwhile the spins doctors at the Australian open with their exploration of the 53/47 News Poll thus –

    “Scott Morrison was correct last week when he told MPs they could not win on the single issue of border protection” Dennis Shanahan. But then this from another spin doctor in the same paper

    “Scott Morrison’s all-out assault on Labor over the softening of border protection ..has boosted his credentials on national border security but failed to lift the Govt’s stocks with voters” Simon Benson.

    Benson then goes on to tell front page readers that “almost one in five Labor voters (are) now backing Mr Morrison over Bill Shorten as the more trusted steward of the nation’s finances” and it goes downhill from there.

    Oh your wondering about Chris Kenny ? AWOL from the Monday bleating. Wonder why.

  46. poroti @ #342 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 6:44 am

    Fear not fearful Coalition supporters. The BOATS! did not work out but Dennis Shanana has spotted another Coalition wunderwaffe on the horizon.
    .
    .
    Budget could give PM the edge

    DENNIS SHANAHAN

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/healthy-budget-could-give-morrison-the-edge/news-story/d76cac3a0ae0c370a5af4344ec4c509c

    He works hard for his 350k+ a year, poroti. So you better treat him right! 😉

  49. Jokers on Insiders were claiming Porter was doing a great job prosecuting government’s case. Apparently he had “cut through”.

    Now Newspoll and West Australian’s expose on his rorts come out and we get to see how much of a joke media is.

  50. Climate solutions fund? Another direct action bucket of money which will do nothing to change behaviour.

    Tony Abbott’s controversial policy has so far failed to stop total emissions increases since replacing the carbon price in 2014, and shadow climate change minister Mark Butler has responded ($) by quoting Malcolm Turnbull’s description of the fund as “a fig leaf to cover a determination to do nothing”.

    A blue leaflet immediately springs to mind.

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