After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
Buttrose is a terrible, yet typical choice for ABC Chair. No experience in public broadcasting, something that is alien to her whole professional life and beliefs.
As a former Director of ACP and Newcorpse she has drunk the cool-aid that the national broadcaster should be privatised. She will prove incapable of implementing the incoming Governments funding plans because they will undercut the outgoing governemnt’s ideology, which she has proven to be a loyal spear carrier for.
God forbid that a Shorten Labor government inquire into Canadian styl;e media laws – she will use her position as ABC Chair to campaign for the media establishment and their Liberal Party backers.
Holden Hillbilly @ #395 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 8:51 am
As Labor’s policies tend to be more progressive and less punitive than LNP’s most get’s past independents (see Julia Gov) why even poorline votes for most of it…
ScumMo is recycling Abbott’s old direct donation climate policy to “reduce emissions”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/25/scott-morrison-to-reboot-tony-abbotts-emissions-reduction-fund-with-2bn
Really? Even Turnbull knew it didn’t work. This is just more pork for rural property owners. They will use the money to buy bigger 4wds. This won’t fool anyone who follows the debate.
This is what the Congress should be doing: using its power to hold the administration to account.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-democrats-will-subpoena-mueller-if-report-is-not-made-public-schiff-says/2019/02/24/0a0dc906-3841-11e9-a2cd-307b06d0257b_story.html?utm_term=.958dbdd4ed76
Labor’s PV in Ipsos was 33%; in Newspoll, 39%. As at 31 Dec 2018, there are 16,222,336 people enrolled to vote, meaning that in the 8 days between the releases Ipsos & Newpoll, there’s a shift back to Labor in the order of some 973,000 voters. Either my math is suspect or one pollster’s got it terribly wrong.
https://aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/
Socrates:
Meanwhile in the US…..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/white-house-to-select-federal-scientists-to-reassess-government-climate-findings-sources-say/2019/02/24/49cd0a84-37dd-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9_story.html?utm_term=.55039b102ff0
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/feb/24/meet-the-neuroscientist-shattering-the-myth-of-the-gendered-brain-gina-rippon
Holden Hillbilly, the problem is? Based on Gillard’s term , Labor will have little problem I’d say, only the LNP don’t know how to negotiate
I reckon Morrison has made a mistake.
If there’s $2B available for climate change funding, why not give $1B to ARENA and the CEFC each?
CEFC already fund energy efficiency, and ARENA fund clean energy sources for industrial processes. Labor don’t even have to argue about the size of the expenditure.
Someone’s fixed georginas problem…
Well, well, it doesn’t seem like the Glory Days – when ScoMo advised going in hard on Muslims and then took over as Generalissimo of Sovereign Borders himself – are coming back after all.
He promised the party grandees that it would be a doddle to whip up national fear again. Like Johnnie Rocco in Key Largo, we were all set to return to the policy bootlegging rackets, where the mugs would buy any old cheap hooch the Libs were peddling, and then say, “Hmmm, tastes good… More please!”
The media, after some tut-tutting at the obvious cynicism of the ploy, forgot all about that aspect of the scam (and about any benefits that might accrue to the actual health of the poor bastards from the legislation), then reverted to type, as in explaining everything in terms of who won Question Time, who outfoxed who, what-this-election-is-all-about, and how Charlie Bubbles himself, Scott Morrison, had cleverly placed his opponents inside the “Canberra Bubble”, while stepping out of it himself. Brilliant! If you can fake sincerity this skilfully, you’ve got it made. Heh, heh. It was so easy, so obvious. The newspaper columns and the live crosses to Parliament House scripted themselves.
Even News Corp swallowed their pride and conceded that Newspoll wasn’t the only polling game in town. Little Ipsos, while not really a serious effort, had come through with a winner, just when a winner was needed. With a followup disinformation campaign, a few editorials telling us we finally had a decisive issue, and that Bill Shorten while a gifted amateur (for a union thug) had made his first big mistake and had thereby lost the election, News and the rest bootstrapped an obviously rogue poll (just look at the last half a dozen Ipsos yo-yo efforts) into a catastrophe for Labor. There was a spring in the step of Coalition MPs as they dared to dream. Australia had finally cone to its senses.
It was always on the cards that Newspoll could be a letdown. And it is. Shorten has “dodged a bullet” but, as someone upthread pointed out, Prohibition wasn’t coming back after all, because turns out the Gang that had him in their sights couldn’t shoot straight.
All they have left now is planting $2 billion worth of trees in a pathetic effort at pretending they’re strong on Climate Action, trickle down inequality as a desirable national aspiration, and several courtesy buses full of grumpy gramps grumbling about one bar radiators and the Claytons Pension (the pension you’re entitled to when you not entitled to the pension).
Just as you can give away only so many sets of steak knives before the punters get sick of cheap cutlery, you can only slice and dice smarmy, recycled PR droppings for a certain limited time before the mob says, “Hey… this tastes like shit!”
And THAT is probably going to be what the election is REALLY about.
Holden Hillbilly, the problem is? Based on Gillard’s term , Labor will have little problem I’d say, only the LNP don’t know how to negotiate.
++++++
As a result of them totally lacking in humility.
Control, dear Watson.
@lenoretaylor
41m41 minutes ago
Could this be the kind of project Morrison Government is planning with new $$$ for the ERF….Emissions reduction fund could be used to upgrade 40-year-old coal-fired power plant
https://twitter.com/lenoretaylor/status/1099790542529941504
More grist for the Chumgate mill.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/liberal-duo-christian-porter-and-joe-francis-taking-voters-for-a-ride-over-complimentary-campaign-bus-ng-b881114295z
I was listening to the first bit of Morrison on Jon Faine’s morning show. Talking about the emissions reduction plan and Faine was really getting stuck into him.
Newscorp has trawled through the dirt files to see if they can come up with anything on NSW Opposition Leader Michael Daley. They apparently found nothing since 2006, but there were some developer donations to Randwick council back in 2004-6 while Daley was a councillor. It seems to be nothing, but it is aimed at people who only scan the headlines and the first paragraph or two. Developer donations were legal in NSW back then in any case. The item got prominence on ABC RN this morning.
Meanwhile, no mention of Chumgate or AFPRaidGate.
Just shows what Labor is up against.
Morrison says the coalition doesn’t believe you need to choose between the climate and the economy.
HAHAHAHAHA!!!
Unless, of course, it is ALP policies …. then we defitely will — in his eyes.
Socrates
As a description of Tones’ Direct Action policy 🙂
ScoMo Speaking waaaaaaaaay too long for the little he has to actually say. Not a good look.
Now on to how bad the ALP is……
It’s a joke right?
How risible is 200 million a year to pay for motherhood statements like
*stopping farmers from land clearing (not to mention breaking the law)
*revegetation
*reducing bushfire risk
*changing lighting and refrigeration systems
“The 10-year program will provide funding for farmers, businesses and local governments for projects such as revegetating land, reducing bushfire risk and replacing lighting and refrigeration systems” (ABC)
If this were a marketing presentation it would be laughed out of town.
I’ve never thought of Warren as particularly bright, but I’m afraid he’s proving it. Keneally has been trying to explain Labor policy to him.
“I reckon Morrison has made a mistake.”
ScoMo must be getting to the point where getting out of bed feels like a mistake. 🙂
If there’s $2B available for climate change funding, why not give $1B to ARENA and the CEFC each?
It will be $200M / year for pork to farmers and irrigators.
lizzie
So in touch with the ‘common man’ with his comment. What % of people would have this to struggle on with !
No way Labor will win a majority in the Senate with a primary below 40. The best they could hope for is a combined Labor-Green majority, and as history has shown, even that is fraught. However, with the rest of the crossbench likely dominated by centrists (Xenophones, Hinch, etc), Labor should be able to negotiate most of its legislation through. As long as Liberal+National+Nutjob (One Nation, LDP, shooters, racists and authoritarian Christians) is a minority, Labor should do OK.
briefly
from your link:
‘The sharp rise in antisemitism and racism in France is a “new turn of events” that could be linked to the gilets jaunes demonstrations that have swept the country, according to President Emmanuel Macron. Swastikas have been daubed on public buildings, on Jewish gravestones and on postboxes bearing portraits of the late Simone Veil, a politician and Holocaust survivor. The German word Juden (Jews) was sprayed on the window of a bagel bakery on the Île Saint-Louis, in the heart of Paris.’
That confirms that the Le Pen brown shirts are part of the GJs. They are quite catholic about their racism. They hate Muslims and Jews.
I wonder whether Bludgers who extolled the GJs earlier in the piece might now have some pause for thought?
I see the Villiers dawn service dates all the way back to…2008!
Actually think Ita is the best of an awful bunch..she was a revelation as a leader during the early Aids epidemic..she may surprise on the upside..I know the others wouldn’t
What exactly ‘drought proofing’ assistance will be is anyones guess. But I am going to take a stab and say it will be a bunch of climate change denying, partisan political animals that will control the process. Scientists and specialists cant be trusted to make these sorts decisions you know.
This is the Coalition, a coalition of kleptocracy and cronyism.
Roger Miller @ #316 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:50 am
But … but … I thought we were going to meet the target “in a canter”!
What went wrong?
Ye Gads….ScoMo still banging on………
Spin and advertorial wank.
Labor can’t win control of the Senate. Even if their primary vote were to soar above 50%, they would only win a majority of the senators in the half up for election, not the chamber overall.
They had to address climate change eventually, and to do it in such an asinine way with a return to Abbottworld and a continued failure to reassure business about any meaningful certainty in energy policies, manages to pull off a cack-handed double twist with pike – 1) confirm climate change as an election issue, and 2) make themselves look stupid and regressive, flirting with smoke and mirrors while taking the punters for fools,
all at the same time.
Simon² Katich® @ #428 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 10:05 am
They will obviously need lots of conferences at posh resorts to get to know each other and work out how best to spend their new found resources.
Irresponsible reporting. It should say “scientists” in sarcastic air-quotes to indicate that these people are more like propagandists than scientists and won’t actually be doing any science.
Anyone else get the feeling that Labor is gradually closing in ?
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/labor-to-consider-rules-to-stop-poaching-of-government-it-workers-20190222-h1blik
So what is up with the NSW Court of Appeal!!!!
Did Australia meet its Kyoto target So?
Well we may have, but our target was:
Australia’s committment had become an allowance to actually increase emissions by 8 per cent on the 1990 base year level.
Nothing to crow about.
So true.
https://www.philly.com/opinion/commentary/robert-kraft-prostitution-jeffrey-epstein-sex-slavery-trump-20190224.html?clearUserState=true
And other high profile men caught up in the sting include former president of Citigroup, and the founder of private equity firm JW Childs and Associates.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/us/robert-kraft-trafficking-florida.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Itza,
Yep, that was the point I was trying to make. Morrison has just made climate change a $2B election issue!
Of course the LNP want to direct the funds, but there are a chunk of voters who will see “$2B for climate change to be spent on farmers” vs (potentially more than) “$2B for climate change to ARENA and the CEFC for renewables.”
And this guys was an advertising man!?
For Labor to win control of the senate in its own right after this election it would need to secure 56%+ of the senate vote in at least 4 states and not dip below 42% in each of the other two states. It’s nice to dream … but.
Edite: Labor would actually have to secure 56%+ in each state (to secure 4 quotas), thereby winning 24 seats in the states, plus 2 Territory seats, plus the 13 long term senators = 39 and majority. Of course, it could pick up both senate seats in a territory. Maybe 67% vote in ACT. Still dreaming, though!
Such a shame to lose Jon Faine. He holds such a lot of corporate memory.
Boerwar
So you smear the whole movement because some @$$@#! F’wits have decided to tag along ? Well I guess the earlier attempt by the ‘establishment’ to smear them with ‘RUSSIA’ didn’t work so let’s try GJ= antisemitism. How ‘Macron’ of you.
This morning, while he was being interviewed by Michael on the ABC, I saw Mr Morrison tell a lie that nobody could possibly believe, not even Jenny.
Mr Morrison stated that his words and actions in relation to the Medevac Act had NOTHING to do with the polls.
Apparently Mr Morrison can’t stop himself from being strong, very strong, on boats!
They certainly will. You need the team to be able to work well together. And they will need to bring select stakeholders with them too, preferably Liberal Party donors, who will be able to explain to the ‘team’ in simple media ready terms where the money needs to go.
‘poroti says:
Monday, February 25, 2019 at 10:25 am
Boerwar
I wonder whether Bludgers who extolled the GJs earlier in the piece might now have some pause for thought?
So you smear the whole movement because some @$$@#! F’wits have decided to tag along ? Well I guess the earlier attempt by the ‘establishment’ to smear them with ‘RUSSIA’ didn’t work so let’s try GJ= antisemitism. How ‘Macron’ of you.’
Not at all. I was referring to earlier uncritical comments about the wonder of the GJs. My piont is that they have been hijacked by Right Wing and Left Wing extremists.
If you really wanted to do something about climate change it wouldn’t be two billion over 10 years, or even over the forward estimates (four years).
Try one year.
Itza
If this were a marketing presentation it would be laughed out of town.
___________________________________
It is and it will.
If you really wanted to do something about climate change it wouldn’t be two billion over 10 years, or even over the forward estimates (four years).
It’s alright, there’s billions in private capital waiting for some policy certainty too.