Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.

After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,194 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 24
1 8 9 10 24
  1. Buttrose is a terrible, yet typical choice for ABC Chair. No experience in public broadcasting, something that is alien to her whole professional life and beliefs.

    As a former Director of ACP and Newcorpse she has drunk the cool-aid that the national broadcaster should be privatised. She will prove incapable of implementing the incoming Governments funding plans because they will undercut the outgoing governemnt’s ideology, which she has proven to be a loyal spear carrier for.

    God forbid that a Shorten Labor government inquire into Canadian styl;e media laws – she will use her position as ABC Chair to campaign for the media establishment and their Liberal Party backers.

  2. Holden Hillbilly @ #395 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 8:51 am

    If ALP wins with 53-47 and has a primary vote of around 40% there is no way they will have a majority in the Senate. Even with greens help they will need votes from independents.

    As Labor’s policies tend to be more progressive and less punitive than LNP’s most get’s past independents (see Julia Gov) why even poorline votes for most of it…

  3. This is what the Congress should be doing: using its power to hold the administration to account.

    Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Calif.) said Sunday that House Democrats will subpoena special counsel Robert S. Mueller III to testify before Congress if his report on Russian interference in the 2016 election is not made public.

    Schiff, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said on ABC News’s “This Week” that Democrats will also subpoena Mueller’s report and are prepared to go to court against the Trump administration.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-democrats-will-subpoena-mueller-if-report-is-not-made-public-schiff-says/2019/02/24/0a0dc906-3841-11e9-a2cd-307b06d0257b_story.html?utm_term=.958dbdd4ed76

  4. Socrates:

    Meanwhile in the US…..

    The White House plans to create an ad hoc group of select federal scientists to reassess the government’s analysis of climate science and counter conclusions that the continued burning of fossil fuels is harming the planet, according to three administration officials.

    The National Security Council initiative would include scientists who question the severity of climate impacts and the extent to which humans contribute to the problem, according to these individuals, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

    The group would not be subject to the same level of public disclosure as a formal advisory committee.

    The move would represent the Trump administration’s most forceful effort to date to challenge the scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions are helping drive global warming and that the world could face dire consequences unless countries curb their carbon output over the next few decades.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/white-house-to-select-federal-scientists-to-reassess-government-climate-findings-sources-say/2019/02/24/49cd0a84-37dd-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9_story.html?utm_term=.55039b102ff0

  5. One major breakthrough in recent years has been the realisation that, even in adulthood, our brains are continually being changed, not just by the education we receive, but also by the jobs we do, the hobbies we have, the sports we play. The brain of a working London taxi driver will be different from that of a trainee and from that of a retired taxi driver; we can track differences among people who play videogames or are learning origami or to play the violin. Supposing these brain-changing experiences are different for different people, or groups of people? If, for example, being male means that you have much greater experience of constructing things or manipulating complex 3D representations (such as playing with Lego), it is very likely that this will be shown in your brain. Brains reflect the lives they have lived, not just the sex of their owners.

    Seeing the life-long impressions made on our plastic brains by the experiences and attitudes they encounter makes us realise that we need to take a really close look at what is going on outside our heads as well as inside. We can no longer cast the sex differences debate as nature versus nurture – we need to acknowledge that the relationship between a brain and its world is not a one-way street, but a constant two-way flow of traffic.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/feb/24/meet-the-neuroscientist-shattering-the-myth-of-the-gendered-brain-gina-rippon

  6. Holden Hillbilly, the problem is? Based on Gillard’s term , Labor will have little problem I’d say, only the LNP don’t know how to negotiate

  7. I reckon Morrison has made a mistake.

    If there’s $2B available for climate change funding, why not give $1B to ARENA and the CEFC each?

    CEFC already fund energy efficiency, and ARENA fund clean energy sources for industrial processes. Labor don’t even have to argue about the size of the expenditure.

  8. Well, well, it doesn’t seem like the Glory Days – when ScoMo advised going in hard on Muslims and then took over as Generalissimo of Sovereign Borders himself – are coming back after all.

    He promised the party grandees that it would be a doddle to whip up national fear again. Like Johnnie Rocco in Key Largo, we were all set to return to the policy bootlegging rackets, where the mugs would buy any old cheap hooch the Libs were peddling, and then say, “Hmmm, tastes good… More please!”

    The media, after some tut-tutting at the obvious cynicism of the ploy, forgot all about that aspect of the scam (and about any benefits that might accrue to the actual health of the poor bastards from the legislation), then reverted to type, as in explaining everything in terms of who won Question Time, who outfoxed who, what-this-election-is-all-about, and how Charlie Bubbles himself, Scott Morrison, had cleverly placed his opponents inside the “Canberra Bubble”, while stepping out of it himself. Brilliant! If you can fake sincerity this skilfully, you’ve got it made. Heh, heh. It was so easy, so obvious. The newspaper columns and the live crosses to Parliament House scripted themselves.

    Even News Corp swallowed their pride and conceded that Newspoll wasn’t the only polling game in town. Little Ipsos, while not really a serious effort, had come through with a winner, just when a winner was needed. With a followup disinformation campaign, a few editorials telling us we finally had a decisive issue, and that Bill Shorten while a gifted amateur (for a union thug) had made his first big mistake and had thereby lost the election, News and the rest bootstrapped an obviously rogue poll (just look at the last half a dozen Ipsos yo-yo efforts) into a catastrophe for Labor. There was a spring in the step of Coalition MPs as they dared to dream. Australia had finally cone to its senses.

    It was always on the cards that Newspoll could be a letdown. And it is. Shorten has “dodged a bullet” but, as someone upthread pointed out, Prohibition wasn’t coming back after all, because turns out the Gang that had him in their sights couldn’t shoot straight.

    All they have left now is planting $2 billion worth of trees in a pathetic effort at pretending they’re strong on Climate Action, trickle down inequality as a desirable national aspiration, and several courtesy buses full of grumpy gramps grumbling about one bar radiators and the Claytons Pension (the pension you’re entitled to when you not entitled to the pension).

    Just as you can give away only so many sets of steak knives before the punters get sick of cheap cutlery, you can only slice and dice smarmy, recycled PR droppings for a certain limited time before the mob says, “Hey… this tastes like shit!”

    And THAT is probably going to be what the election is REALLY about.

  9. Holden Hillbilly, the problem is? Based on Gillard’s term , Labor will have little problem I’d say, only the LNP don’t know how to negotiate.
    ++++++
    As a result of them totally lacking in humility.

  10. Malcolm Farr Retweeted
    @claire_bickers
    22m22 minutes ago

    PM @ScottMorrisonMP says he will personally intervene to overturn the decision to axe the ANZAC Dawn Service at Villers-Bretonneaux #auspol

  11. I was listening to the first bit of Morrison on Jon Faine’s morning show. Talking about the emissions reduction plan and Faine was really getting stuck into him.

  12. Newscorp has trawled through the dirt files to see if they can come up with anything on NSW Opposition Leader Michael Daley. They apparently found nothing since 2006, but there were some developer donations to Randwick council back in 2004-6 while Daley was a councillor. It seems to be nothing, but it is aimed at people who only scan the headlines and the first paragraph or two. Developer donations were legal in NSW back then in any case. The item got prominence on ABC RN this morning.

    Meanwhile, no mention of Chumgate or AFPRaidGate.

    Just shows what Labor is up against.

  13. Morrison says the coalition doesn’t believe you need to choose between the climate and the economy.

    HAHAHAHAHA!!!

    Unless, of course, it is ALP policies …. then we defitely will — in his eyes.

  14. It’s a joke right?

    How risible is 200 million a year to pay for motherhood statements like

    *stopping farmers from land clearing (not to mention breaking the law)
    *revegetation
    *reducing bushfire risk
    *changing lighting and refrigeration systems

    “The 10-year program will provide funding for farmers, businesses and local governments for projects such as revegetating land, reducing bushfire risk and replacing lighting and refrigeration systems” (ABC)

    If this were a marketing presentation it would be laughed out of town.

  15. I’ve never thought of Warren as particularly bright, but I’m afraid he’s proving it. Keneally has been trying to explain Labor policy to him.

    Warren Mundine for Gilmore
    ‏@nyunggai

    So there’s the truth to your policy – you want low income retirees to pay 30% tax instead of zero tax. People who’ve paid taxes all their lives to fund hospitals, schools, roads etc. And a million dollars in super doesn’t pay a high annual income for a 20+ year retirement #auspol

  16. “I reckon Morrison has made a mistake.”

    ScoMo must be getting to the point where getting out of bed feels like a mistake. 🙂

    If there’s $2B available for climate change funding, why not give $1B to ARENA and the CEFC each?

    It will be $200M / year for pork to farmers and irrigators.

  17. lizzie

    So in touch with the ‘common man’ with his comment. What % of people would have this to struggle on with !

    a million dollars in super doesn’t pay a high annual income for a 20+ year retirement #auspol

  18. No way Labor will win a majority in the Senate with a primary below 40. The best they could hope for is a combined Labor-Green majority, and as history has shown, even that is fraught. However, with the rest of the crossbench likely dominated by centrists (Xenophones, Hinch, etc), Labor should be able to negotiate most of its legislation through. As long as Liberal+National+Nutjob (One Nation, LDP, shooters, racists and authoritarian Christians) is a minority, Labor should do OK.

  19. briefly

    from your link:

    ‘The sharp rise in antisemitism and racism in France is a “new turn of events” that could be linked to the gilets jaunes demonstrations that have swept the country, according to President Emmanuel Macron. Swastikas have been daubed on public buildings, on Jewish gravestones and on postboxes bearing portraits of the late Simone Veil, a politician and Holocaust survivor. The German word Juden (Jews) was sprayed on the window of a bagel bakery on the Île Saint-Louis, in the heart of Paris.’

    That confirms that the Le Pen brown shirts are part of the GJs. They are quite catholic about their racism. They hate Muslims and Jews.

    I wonder whether Bludgers who extolled the GJs earlier in the piece might now have some pause for thought?

  20. I see the Villiers dawn service dates all the way back to…2008!
    Actually think Ita is the best of an awful bunch..she was a revelation as a leader during the early Aids epidemic..she may surprise on the upside..I know the others wouldn’t

  21. It will be $200M / year for pork to farmers and irrigators.

    What exactly ‘drought proofing’ assistance will be is anyones guess. But I am going to take a stab and say it will be a bunch of climate change denying, partisan political animals that will control the process. Scientists and specialists cant be trusted to make these sorts decisions you know.

    This is the Coalition, a coalition of kleptocracy and cronyism.

  22. Roger Miller @ #316 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 12:50 am

    The press release has gone out. Didn’t work last time. Won’t work this time. It’s a place filler to say we have a climate policy too, but it will be cheaper, faster, and better. But it isn’t.
    https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-announces-2-billion-solutions-fund-to-fight-climate-change&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjSpO_Yv9TgAhVSWX0KHXGMBZIQqOcBMAB6BAgAEAI&usg=AOvVaw0oNYIB4b_-4T18DontMU6M

    But … but … I thought we were going to meet the target “in a canter”!

    The new $2 billion package is aimed at ensuring Australia can meet the 2030 emissions reduction target.

    What went wrong?

  23. Labor can’t win control of the Senate. Even if their primary vote were to soar above 50%, they would only win a majority of the senators in the half up for election, not the chamber overall.

  24. They had to address climate change eventually, and to do it in such an asinine way with a return to Abbottworld and a continued failure to reassure business about any meaningful certainty in energy policies, manages to pull off a cack-handed double twist with pike – 1) confirm climate change as an election issue, and 2) make themselves look stupid and regressive, flirting with smoke and mirrors while taking the punters for fools,

    all at the same time.

  25. @murpharoo

    Snowy 2.0 is built in to the government’s Paris projections (even though the government hasn’t signed off on that project), as is additional hydro (just FYI) #auspol

  26. Simon² Katich® @ #428 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 10:05 am

    It will be $200M / year for pork to farmers and irrigators.

    What exactly ‘drought proofing’ assistance will be is anyones guess. But I am going to take a stab and say it will be a bunch of climate change denying, partisan political animals that will control the process. Scientists and specialists cant be trusted to make these sorts decisions you know.

    This is the Coalition, a coalition of kleptocracy and cronyism.

    They will obviously need lots of conferences at posh resorts to get to know each other and work out how best to spend their new found resources.

  27. The National Security Council initiative would include scientists who question the severity of climate impacts and the extent to which humans contribute to the problem, according to these individuals, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

    Irresponsible reporting. It should say “scientists” in sarcastic air-quotes to indicate that these people are more like propagandists than scientists and won’t actually be doing any science.

  28. Anyone else get the feeling that Labor is gradually closing in ?

    Federal government IT procurement rules face a shake-up if Labor wins the May election, including the introduction of measures designed to rein in the poaching of experienced public servants by private contractors.

    Labor’s digital economy and human services spokesman Ed Husic says a Bill Shorten-led government would review contract terms and management rules to better track the behaviour of vendors to government departments, in an attempt to stop the recruiting of experienced bureaucrats to the private sector.

    He said poaching had reinforced the federal public service’s dependency on private ICT vendors and driven up the cost of public administration.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/labor-to-consider-rules-to-stop-poaching-of-government-it-workers-20190222-h1blik

  29. Did Australia meet its Kyoto target So?

    Well we may have, but our target was:

    Australia’s committment had become an allowance to actually increase emissions by 8 per cent on the 1990 base year level.

    Nothing to crow about.

  30. So true.

    He could have gone anywhere, but Robert Kraft — one of the 100 richest men in America, owner of the Super Bowl champion (sigh) New England Patriots — went to the Orchids of Asia Day Spa, in a less-than-nondescript strip mall in Jupiter, Fla. He was takin’ care of business, according to police, behind dark-tinted windows promising “Massage Therapy” and beige circa-1970s stucco, right there between the game shop and the nail salon and the newly renovated Thai restaurant.

    Police said Kraft’s chauffeur would take the 77-year-old billionaire for the roughly 30-minute drive from Palm Beach, home to his newish $29.5 million Spanish-style mansion on Ocean Boulevard, as well as to Mar-a-Lago, where he’s known to socialize with President Trump.

    Bob Kraft is reportedly worth $6.6 billion. The price for a half hour at Orchids of Asia — where authorities on Friday said Kraft solicited prostitution, the charges brought after cops filmed him allegedly having sex with workers on two separate occasions — is $59.

    It’s easy to make the pathos of a pompous billionaire caught up in a sex sting into the butt of jokes — especially when every red-blooded American west of Hartford absolutely hates Kraft’s football team — and on social media thousands of people have been doing exactly that. Totally understandable. But it’s important to take a deep breath and remember — this isn’t really “a sex scandal.” The real scandal here is the gross imbalance of power involving women who were held in a form of human bondage to serve as objects of gratification for powerful men intoxicated by their belief they can get away with anything.

    https://www.philly.com/opinion/commentary/robert-kraft-prostitution-jeffrey-epstein-sex-slavery-trump-20190224.html?clearUserState=true

    And other high profile men caught up in the sting include former president of Citigroup, and the founder of private equity firm JW Childs and Associates.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/us/robert-kraft-trafficking-florida.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  31. Itza,

    They had to address climate change eventually, and to do it in such an asinine way with a return to Abbottworld and a continued failure to reassure business about any meaningful certainty in energy policies, manages to pull off a cack-handed double twist with pike – 1) confirm climate change as an election issue, and 2) make themselves look stupid and regressive, flirting with smoke and mirrors while taking the punters for fools,

    all at the same time.

    Yep, that was the point I was trying to make. Morrison has just made climate change a $2B election issue!

    Of course the LNP want to direct the funds, but there are a chunk of voters who will see “$2B for climate change to be spent on farmers” vs (potentially more than) “$2B for climate change to ARENA and the CEFC for renewables.”

    And this guys was an advertising man!?

  32. For Labor to win control of the senate in its own right after this election it would need to secure 56%+ of the senate vote in at least 4 states and not dip below 42% in each of the other two states. It’s nice to dream … but.

    Edite: Labor would actually have to secure 56%+ in each state (to secure 4 quotas), thereby winning 24 seats in the states, plus 2 Territory seats, plus the 13 long term senators = 39 and majority. Of course, it could pick up both senate seats in a territory. Maybe 67% vote in ACT. Still dreaming, though!

  33. Such a shame to lose Jon Faine. He holds such a lot of corporate memory.

    @WScetrine
    12m12 minutes ago

    If you missed Jon Faine’s interview with our beloved PM this morning, you are lucky. All we got was bluster, talking over, denial and dishonesty. The man’s a total joke, soon to be gone and forgotten.

  34. Boerwar

    I wonder whether Bludgers who extolled the GJs earlier in the piece might now have some pause for thought?

    So you smear the whole movement because some @$$@#! F’wits have decided to tag along ? Well I guess the earlier attempt by the ‘establishment’ to smear them with ‘RUSSIA’ didn’t work so let’s try GJ= antisemitism. How ‘Macron’ of you.

  35. This morning, while he was being interviewed by Michael on the ABC, I saw Mr Morrison tell a lie that nobody could possibly believe, not even Jenny.
    Mr Morrison stated that his words and actions in relation to the Medevac Act had NOTHING to do with the polls.
    Apparently Mr Morrison can’t stop himself from being strong, very strong, on boats!

  36. They will obviously need lots of conferences at posh resorts…

    They certainly will. You need the team to be able to work well together. And they will need to bring select stakeholders with them too, preferably Liberal Party donors, who will be able to explain to the ‘team’ in simple media ready terms where the money needs to go.

  37. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 10:25 am

    Boerwar

    I wonder whether Bludgers who extolled the GJs earlier in the piece might now have some pause for thought?

    So you smear the whole movement because some @$$@#! F’wits have decided to tag along ? Well I guess the earlier attempt by the ‘establishment’ to smear them with ‘RUSSIA’ didn’t work so let’s try GJ= antisemitism. How ‘Macron’ of you.’

    Not at all. I was referring to earlier uncritical comments about the wonder of the GJs. My piont is that they have been hijacked by Right Wing and Left Wing extremists.

  38. If you really wanted to do something about climate change it wouldn’t be two billion over 10 years, or even over the forward estimates (four years).

    Try one year.

  39. If you really wanted to do something about climate change it wouldn’t be two billion over 10 years, or even over the forward estimates (four years).

    It’s alright, there’s billions in private capital waiting for some policy certainty too.

Comments Page 9 of 24
1 8 9 10 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *