The Daily Telegraph has a statewide New South Wales poll from YouGov Galaxy that records a dead head on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 38% and Greens 9%. The poll also records Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 3% and One Nation on 1%, which I presume accounts for the limited number of seats these parties are fielding candidates in, as was the case with YouGov Galaxy’s late campaign polling in Queensland last year. A preferred premier question has Gladys Berejiklian with a 38-36 lead over Michael Daley, which is rather slender for an incumbent. It also finds 47% saying the government’s stadium plans have made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with only 16% for more likely. The report says the poll was conducted from a sample of 1016 “before The Daily Telegraph broke the story of Mr Daley’s doublespeak over Chinese immigration”, but it’s no more precise than that on the field work period.
Yet again, the is well in line with the existing reading of the state election poll tracker, on which Labor currently leads 50.6-49.4. The trend charts can be viewed over the fold, with the full display featured as part of the election guide.
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Gawd, was only a matter of time before the sexist attacks against Gladys started up.
For folk who specialise in being pristine and pure Daley’s clumsy comments of last September will undoubtably seem anathema. In voter land I doubt it.
Take Chris Minns’ seat. The newly arrived business migrant who dumped a bomb of cash on a 2br unit or a 3 br California bungalow in the last 5 years isn’t likely to be a citizen-voter. On the other hand the Chinese-Australian family in that electorate who is seeking to step onto or up the property ladder would have been as much in the firing line as their Anglo family counter part: I reckon they will be as pissed off with what ha been happening in the last 5 years in the sydney property market as any other family playing the property game. Of course, what has happened in the last 3-6 months makes it largely moot but I reckon the lived experience of most sydneysiders, regardless of ethnicity, will be attracted to Daley’s sentiments, no matter how cack handed they were expressed.
I dont think this puts Strathfield, Granville, Kogarah in play.
I also dont think it takes seats like Oatley or Balmain off the table. Take Balmain. Labor needs to finish in the top two with the Greens Jamie Parker. Labor will be relying on the Liberal voters NOT exhausting their votes to the same degree as in 2015. Daley’s comments will not hurt at all. On the contrary.
Gee you sound pretty rattled Andrew. The talking points took some time to arrive this am!!
@Andrew_Earlwood
Not sure if you are at prepoll but do you have any info how the Daley story is tracking in voter land? Also any new internal polling info? For some reason SMH is trying to keep the story alive by rehashing it in every possible way.
It’s really hard to predict the impact of the Daley story.
I certainly wouldn’t try and pretend I have any idea how it will play. And even after the election we really can only guess.
I have no time for such language however. Very disappointed.
I’m not sure the party and their media partners that have made a career out of dog whistling are in much of a position to be howling as they have however. A lot of people will find the hypocrisy more nauseating than usual.
Meanwhile the Smear Australian has been tracking Gladys campaign movements and found she has spent most of her time in seats in the 6-12 % 2PP range. Goulburn, Bega, Ryde, Seven Hills, Kiama,
South Coast, Parramatta., Heathcott and yesterday Riverstone would you believe at 12.2 percent which is making a lot of Coalition MPs quietely check the address of their local Centrelink Office – just in case.
A defensive campaign is probably the only option for Gladys – this is going to a long night for everyone. I have no reason at this point to change my perception of a Labor (44) Greens (2) Sydney Indy (1) minority Government despite the bleatings of the Murdochery about ” Race row engulfs would be Premier” smeared across said Murduck Rag front page today.
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PS Moderate _ The only one sounding rattled right now is YOU. Troll away, you haven’t met your KPI yet.
Ps Andrew – let me tell you old mate Strathfield and Kogarah totally in play. Minns is beside himself!!
I reckon anyone making any definitive statements about any seats or the final result are seriously having themselves on.
This one truly feels like one of those elections where anything could happen. Very low and low quality polling information (opv making preference predictions almost impossible), and apparently strong regional variations.
Nothing will surprise on Saturday bar a swing to the government in the face of the Federal lead in their saddle bags.
Moderate @ #56 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 11:31 am
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And you are a comedian too. Awesome.
Good on you EB! Apparently the call from Minns to Daley was delicious!!!
It would be a big loss for Labor if both Minns in Kogarah and McKay in Strathfield were to be pushed out due to Daley’s poor choice of comments. I was hoping one of them would be replacing Daley after the election. They are probably some of Labor’s best talent and future premier material.
I wouldn’t play down Daley’s comments too much. I know a number of voters in East Hills and Coogee who find those comments off putting. With Turnbull sending his plea to Coogee voters today, perhaps they might be feeling more confident?
We’ve attracted our first blind one-eyed Liberal provocateur, have we?
Labor takes out front page ads on Australian Chinese Daily
https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/labor-takes-out-front-page-ad-in-australian-chinese-daily-after-daley-comments-20190320-p515r2.html
https://outline.com/YsJkwu
“Gee you sound pretty rattled Andrew. The talking points took some time to arrive this am!!”
Mate. You have been polishing turds for Gladys on this and other web blogs for months. I wonder whether you’ll retire the handle “moderate” after Saturday …
As for the seats with higher than average proportion of ‘Asian’ voters, you may well be surprised to discover the lack of love of migrant and second generation Chinese Australians hailing as they do predominantly from Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong towards the Mainland gauche nouveau riche newcomers who have been swamping the market and flooding their suburbs. 5-10 years ago there was a huge degree of popular sentiment of ex pat Taiwanese, Singaporean’s towards China as Asia’s first super power in the last 200 years. Not. Any. More.
All will be known soon enough.
This campaign is playing out pretty well the same as Longman, Super Saturday , Wentworth and the Victorian State Election. Polls stating the Liberals are competitive, leaked Party polling spruiking up the Coalition and desperate gotchas by the media attacking leaders and candidates.
If recent history is any guide there is going to be a big swing away from the Coalition, whether or not it will enough remains to be seen.
But I can tell you as a Queenslander, the optional preferential voting system will not help the incumbent Coalition if the swing is on, the more sanguine voters will just vote 1 exhausting their preferences. That will be a feature of this poll.
Having experienced this here in the past quite a few times before Labor changed it back to preferential voting to further game the outcome.
I note the leaking of Liberal polling usually presages a disaster in the making, thus the need to shore up the base.
I also note the ALP has not leaked any polling, no need to.
As an aside, during the campaign I have seen some of that Liberal Party polling via a well placed friend, and, polling wise the Liberals are not in a good position both in NSW and federally.
AE – Makes me think of how many second generation Australians I know who are fervid One Nation supporters. They are very happy to shut the door on anyone coming after them.
Gee Andrew if I knew you’d been following me for months I would have given you more ammo!!
But thanks so much buddy for the constructive criticism.
As st midday today ALP deploying serious resources into Strathfield and Kogarah… but I know mate you’ve got it all under control. How about witness protection for Daley for the next 48 hours!!
“AE – Makes me think of how many second generation Australians I know who are fervid One Nation supporters. They are very happy to shut the door on anyone coming after them.”
There might be a touch of that, but the natural bias of Chinese ethnicity migrants, even those from Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, is to be pro China because they are proud of the fact that that China has emerged as the 21st century superpower. What I am talking about is the serious erosion of that goodwill because of the antics of mainland Chinese business migrants in the Sydney property market, especially over the past 5 years or so.
the optional preferential voting system will not help the incumbent Coalition if the swing is on, the more sanguine voters will just vote 1 exhausting their preferences. That will be a feature of this poll.
For me OPV is definitely the biggest cause for caution. Federally you can get a situation where a good proportion of the vote sends a protest, but they find their way back via prefs. OPV means there’s no guarantee.
With the government now 8 years old and memories of the last NSW Labor government faded by another 4 years from the last election, it isn’t too much of a stretch to imagine preferences will be significantly less friendly to the government than they were in 2015 and better for Labor, which can make seats seemingly safe come into play because the margin is inflated by a preference flow that won’t be repeated.
Not guaranteed of course, but a big unknown. With the polling at least consistent in showing a solid Primary swing against the government and towards Labor (but no great change in overall majors vote) it’s not outrageous to imagine similar movements in the preference/exhaustion behaviour of minor party and independent voters. Right positive non major voters that preffed the Coalition might decide to simply exhaust this time around, and Left positive voters that exhausted may find themselves deciding to send a pref Labor’s way. That sort of behaviour won’t be showing up in the polling as the primary vote won’t have changed.
Any significant change in preference flow/exhaustion from 2015 can throw the game wide open (either way) without the polling being wrong (in terms of PV).
For the record, 20 years ago Andrew would have been correct that the Taiwanese and SEAsian Chinese were the majority of the Australian Chinese community.
However, this is no longer true – the Mainlanders are now by far in the majority. Note the almost total switch from Canto to Mandarin in Melbourne Chinese communities over the past decade or two.
Also, there actually isn’t as much animosity between SEAsian Chinese and Mainlanders as you might assume from outside. HK and Taiwanese yes, but the SEAsian Chinese community is relatively Mainland friendly.
Re preferences, it really comes down to what minor party voters do. Will Green voters, who preference Labor 4-1, let their votes exhaust? What about One Nationers and Palmists, whose votes probably come mainly for the Coalition? What about the Shooters et al? I expect that they would mainly be diverting votes from the Nationals. Then there are the many voters for independents.
There are a lot of unknowns.
It would be delicious irony if the LDP won two seats in the Legislative Council, the second sort of at the ‘expense’ of One Nation, given the choice Mark Latham made.
Though as I said to Shellbell, with rumours of Alan Jones’ imminent retirement from radio, such a result may end up enabling the people of NSW to hear Mark Latham’s dulcet tones on 2GB for many, many years!
“For folk who specialise in being pristine and pure Daley’s clumsy comments of last September will undoubtably seem anathema.”… Surely folk who “specialise in being pristine and pure” don’t vote and prefer to pay a fine because, you know, absolutely nobody is up to their “pristine and pure” standards. Those who are after Daley for his comment are neither “pristine” nor “pure”, they are just desperate propagandists desperately trying to scavenge some votes from Labor in an election that they know Labor may well win.
This is true for Liberals, Nationals and, I am afraid, also the Greens.
“For the record, 20 years ago Andrew would have been correct that the Taiwanese and SEAsian Chinese were the majority of the Australian Chinese community.
However, this is no longer true – the Mainlanders are now by far in the majority. Note the almost total switch from Canto to Mandarin in Melbourne Chinese communities over the past decade or two.
Also, there actually isn’t as much animosity between SEAsian Chinese and Mainlanders as you might assume from outside. HK and Taiwanese yes, but the SEAsian Chinese community is relatively Mainland friendly.”
A few points:
1. You are generally on the money, but
2. The demographic switch you talk about has really happened only in the last 10 years in Sydney. Most of the newcomers are still not eligible to vote;
3. Chinese migrants and second gens who are eligible to vote are still predominantly comprised of folk hailing from HK, Taiwan and Singapore. Not a lot of love there towards the mainlander business migrant wave. Mainly because these communities are feeling the Sydney squeeze as much as the broader community.
For urban seats this election, a paraphrase of the 1992 Clinton campaign mantra is closest to the mark: “IT’S THE TRAINS, STUPID!!”
Anyone who dismisses the anger most commuters feel towards the government for mucking up public transport so badly for commuters just hasn’t been paying attention to the scathing feedback they have been providing to MP’s these last couple of years.
And that front page of the Tele would be a red rag to a bull for most of its readers.
The Liberals must be going senile in their desperation, resorting to exhuming John Howard to provide – of all things – an adverse character assessment of Michael Daley in their latest TV ad. Howard has absolutely no credibly in judging the character of anyone, if his nauseating support for Pedophile Pell is anything to go by. Funny how John Howard will interpret the motivations and actions of a convicted pedophile charitably, but will hysterically rant against a Labor leader and insist on the most sinister possible interpretation of his words.
And remind me again, is this the same Liberal leader who announced in radio that he was “uncomfortable with the rate of immigration from Asia”? Not only exercising a double standard, but a shameless hypocrite into the bargain.
(My God, did he look panicked in that video, too.)
Some comments on twitter claiming that ALP removing Daley’s picture like the post below. Can any one confirm this? Given the source, take it with lots of salt. Also that twitter post was from Manly, very safe Lib seat
https://twitter.com/PeterPhelpsMLC/status/1108197158765789185
https://twitter.com/thomasloomes/status/1108199560109674497
dy4me, that “source” was actually Peter Phelps, Liberal NSW MLC. Describing Phelps as a “source” on campaigning developments is like calling John Howard a “source” on Pedophile Pell’s character.
@Michael
Hence the recommendation of taking salt. Just wanted to know what people at booths are actually experiencing. Also, do we know if the momentum Labor had leading into the weekend has stopped or if it is continuing. Cant see Labor policy getting much oxygen with all the talk of Asians
Also, when you are tuned in you tend to over read most things. Im guessing most people wont even care even though the SMH is trying pretty hard to keep it on the front page
“they are just desperate propagandists”
Indeed. It’s almost like they didn’t actually read what Daley said and are instead only interested in regurgitating Murdoch spin.
Daley said that “it was no bad thing” that people came to Sydney. However their arrival has a (presumably) unintended side effect of making life harder for Sydneysiders of all ethnicities who are just starting out in life. How is that racist?
There was no racism unless you are only willing to view Daley’s comments with News Corp coloured glasses.
It is of course purely a co-incidence that the Daley storm has completely removed discussion of the LNP’s racism and culpability from the public scene. Congratulations Daily Telegraph.
dy4me, I think any oxygen for either side in a state level election campaign will have been well and truly taken by news coverage of events in NZ this week, and the ensuing international reaction. I think you are right and that very few voters will have found time to pay much attention to this Liberal/Murdoch hatchet job on Michael Daley.
I think the coverage of this story says less about what voters will consider when casting their votes, and more about the state of mind of the NSW Liberal Government: desperately clinging to any scrap of flotsam they can.
MOderate@11:22am
Anyone who wants LNP to win in this current climate is not a moderate.
I am ‘rattled’ about White Supremacist terrorist more than anything else.
I am more rattled by the politicians, Murdoch press and its commentators, who publicly propagate fear and hate day in and day out than an inhouse meeting where Daley said a racist statement.
Do you remember Bennelong by-election, where MT implicitly questioned Chinese-Australian patriotism.
Our governments say that they are protecting us from militant islamic terrorism. I am grateful for that. Are our governments protecting us from White Supremacist terrorism?
Michael A @ 1:49.
“Anyone who dismisses the anger most commuters feel towards the government for mucking up public transport so badly for commuters just hasn’t been paying attention to the scathing feedback they have been providing to MP’s…”
That would be correct. I am no longer a daily commuter but still use the system regularly. It has deteriorate badly in the last few years. The rail network now collapses into chaos when there’s lightning or heavy rain, hardly uncommon occurrences in Sydney. Then there’s all the weekends and nights when the North Shore line and other lines are closed for trackwork, the closing of perfectly serviceable heavy rail branch in Newcastle to build a dinky little tramway that follows a similar route, the extended chaos in the Sydney and Newcastle city centres during the light rail build. These guys don’t seem to know what they’re doing.
Berejiklian (and Murdoch) trying desperately to keep this story alive. She’s a bit rattled?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/alp-leaders-comments-racist-nsw-premier/news-story/a14ed7d74364742571a39479e16fa34a
The NSW Labor leader’s comments on Asian migration are “absolutely” racist, Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said in an escalation of her attack on Michael Daley.
The “Liberals” have learnt from a well-known 20th century propagandist, accuse your opponent of what you yourself are doing.
She’s getting desperate. After all, she had no good story to tell.
‘The Australian understands the Liberal Party had planned for two months to drop the damaging video of Mr Daley in the last week of the campaign’
This line has since been removed from the article but google still has it in the summary
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-election-race-row-engulfs-wouldbe-premier-daley-as-alp-scrambles-to-win-back-voters/news-story/2cfef42610e58d692afa9907c22a736e
Don’t think what ever the murdoch empire does will make a difference
they are of course getting desperate……….. jones, Bolt, Murray Dean and a cast of lesser idiots
the Nats are still on the nose and so are the liberals in the bush…………. and maybe another 10 seats in the city are in play…………… Gladys and her government are very accident prone…………
care to guess how many ministers are defeated or the seats of ministers not recontesting are lost
usually with a change of government can be 4 to 5
Why Daley had to single out Asians is beyond me, everything else he said is spot on but poisoned by the stereotype. Nonetheless, I think there will be alot of mature people who look beyond the outrage and acknowledge that Sydney’s housing supply, built on limited space, isn’t/can’t keep up with our above long term average migration. Maybe it will harm preference flows from the Greens though?
Welcome back MICK old son. I’d be more worried about shadow ministerial losses at this stage, starting with Kogarah (the vote is tanking before your eyes) and Strathfield, where Jodie was very very tense at pp today.
Ministers looking safe – but thanks for your concern. You don’t mind if I pas it on??
Labor are not losing a seat they won even in 2011, c’mon.
Labor are not losing a seat they won even in 2011, c’mon.
Hey, if you’re gonna dream, dream big.
So, the Gladys-ScuMo-Murdoch propaganda line is that: “The ALP are racist, vote for us the Liberals/Nationals!”…
Ha, ha, ha…. and they think it’s gonna work! … Dear me….
Hey, Gladys, ask ScuMo and Rupert how the “African gangs” campaign went in Victoria last year!
“Maybe it will harm preference flows from the Greens though?”…
The Greens have got their own BIG troubles in NSW. They better stick with the ALP, as it is obvious and natural, or risk disintegration.
The Libs, on the other hand, have now BIG problems with the PHON. Gladys’ and ScuMo’s strategy is: “We disagree with PHON, we don’t want anything to do with PHON, they are too racist for our new racist-but-nonracist Liberal party, you know… But please, please PHON, give us your preferences above Labor…. ”
… Ha, ha… hilarious Liberals.
“Ministers looking safe”
lols.
The Black Knight makes an appearance.
Shame about Constance, Ayres and Barilaro. Just for starters. Poor old Pru and Troy gave up the ghost last year. So sad.
So, any of you loudmouths actually putting money on your confident predictions or are you just full of it? If you really believe the crap you are posting here let me know and I’ll gladly take your money.
Cha Ching. Dick Cheese. Your chest thumping would be more credible were you not hiding behind a fake name and posting anonymously.
Cha Ching, yeah mate, I’ve laid on a couple of bets, you know a hunty here and a hunty there.
I cleaned up big on Longman, super Saturday, Wentworth and Victoria.
You?????
“If you really believe the crap you are posting here let me know and I’ll gladly take your money.”… and of course, being fully consistent with your post, you are betting your house on whatever you predict, are you?
Of course you are… 🙂
Cha Ching says:
Wednesday, March 20, 2019 at 5:11 pm
So, any of you loudmouths actually putting money on your confident predictions or are you just full of it? If you really believe the crap you are posting here let me know and I’ll gladly take your money.
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The libs/nats combined primary vote of under 40% at state, territory or federal will not see the libs/nats retained or win any election ,
“For me OPV is definitely the biggest cause for caution. Federally you can get a situation where a good proportion of the vote sends a protest, but they find their way back via prefs. OPV means there’s no guarantee. ”
Respect your opinion rat…but having been involved in the campaigning in W.A. through the phone call direct contact stuff i suspect the data base the ALP have been developing and updating is apowerfull tool for working out what is happening out there in punterland. They will be campaigning based on better knowledge than the Libs as to on the ground voter sentiment. That may, somewhat mitigate the uncertainty due to OPV.
But, NSW, anything could happen. Hoping for the Libs to get a bloodbath.