YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in New South Wales

The Daily Telegraph has a statewide New South Wales poll from YouGov Galaxy that records a dead head on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 38% and Greens 9%. The poll also records Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 3% and One Nation on 1%, which I presume accounts for the limited number of seats these parties are fielding candidates in, as was the case with YouGov Galaxy’s late campaign polling in Queensland last year. A preferred premier question has Gladys Berejiklian with a 38-36 lead over Michael Daley, which is rather slender for an incumbent. It also finds 47% saying the government’s stadium plans have made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with only 16% for more likely. The report says the poll was conducted from a sample of 1016 “before The Daily Telegraph broke the story of Mr Daley’s doublespeak over ­Chinese immigration”, but it’s no more precise than that on the field work period.

Yet again, the is well in line with the existing reading of the state election poll tracker, on which Labor currently leads 50.6-49.4. The trend charts can be viewed over the fold, with the full display featured as part of the election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

218 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in New South Wales”

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  3. “Daley cant get any of his numbers right. Oh that’s right – he was the Finance Minister who left us $5 billion in deficit.”

    Daley might have forgotten his numbers, but you are just making them up. Labor left office with the budget in surplus (16th surplus in a row, FYI). Baird’s first budget deliberately plunged the state accounts into deficit – to the tune of $720 million – on purpose – to make a political point and to purge the public service and start their Biff Tanner brutopia.

  5. Didn’t watch this thing, but casting through it on Twitter, I haven;t seen anyone saying Daley won it, from any side of politics. Eye of the beholder I suppose.

  6. “From that debate, many people are going to believe Daley is Premier and deserves to be returned.”

    I reckon the penny dropped for many Penrith punters about the M4 toll conjob during that debate.

  7. No Andrew re Workcover. Jump on the annual report buddy – it makes horrible reading. Not in your DNA to leave surpluses.
    Not a great 36 hours for your side old son.

  8. Result of the 100 ‘undecided’

    GladysB 50
    Daley 25
    Undecided 25

    Wonder what the Australian Conservative candidate voted for?

  9. “No Andrew re Workcover. Jump on the annual report buddy – it makes horrible reading. Not in your DNA to leave surpluses.”

    Huh? I’m just going off the Budget Paper No.2 for FY 1995 to 2012. …

  12. Good result for Gladys on the debate, utterly irrelevant to the outcome of the election though. At most 10000 people watching the debate in NSW. Of that 90 % are already rusted on. Will come as a morale boost to Lib faithful but that’s all it is.

  13. In the ALP echo chamber of Poll Bludger (eg Sprocket) Daley was gold. Everywhere else a train wreck.
    50/25/25 – gee Id love those numbers Saturday.

    Jeez doesn’t he sweat a lot!! Too much time nervously hanging around Michael Williamson approving that dodgy DA.

    Andrew – Workcover Annual report 2010/2100 – online and not pretty reading. There’s a thingy called google – it’ll help you get there.

  14. People massively overestimate the impacts these things have or actually watch them, lol. Regardless of what the junkies like us watching think.

    Ftr – my gut feel is still Lib Govt will just hold on, probably in minority.

  15. I only saw the last 20 minutes. Other than daley’s two gaffs on the figures I thought he owned it. I thought Gladys was totally rattled and all over the place. The M4 toll question was a killer.

  17. Not much in that debate. Daley bumbled under constant questioning from Speers. Gladys very scared when Daley attacked on privatisation.. 100 supposedly undecided people in Penrith does not an election make.

  19. “Andrew – Workcover Annual report 2010/2100 – online and not pretty reading. There’s a thingy called google – it’ll help you get there.”

    $4.1 billion “deficit” offset against a $18 billion dollar asset base. You are conflating two things. 1. The workcover “deficit” is not part of the state accounts, and 2. The workcover “deficit” is not a deficit at all – it is a contingent liability and there are and were mechanisms to pay for that liability that were completely seperate from the state budget.

    Moreover, goose, workcover was completely seperate from Daley’s job as the finance minister.

    Lastly, the so called “deficit blowout” was simply a ruse for the liberal government to cut injured workers entitlements. That 2012 workcover report sure doesn’t make for pretty reason – it’s a virtual crime scene of liberal nastiness and dishonesty.

    Here endeth the lesson

  21. It was his key agency mate. The annual report is addressed to him. I said they had a $5 billion deficit – and you confirmed it is 4.2. Sorry for the error!! But I’m a little closer than Mikey boy tonight.
    He wasn’t too solid doing those FSRs around the Williamsons house in Maroubra, either.
    Good night – hope you enjoyed the day.

  22. “Why did Mark Lennon never throw his hat in the ring for NSW politics?”

    Good question. He’s always shied away from it whenever I raised the issue with him. He seemed to take the William Tecumseh Sherman pledge to heart.

  23. From a pommie in the sunny UK 11,000 miles away, this NSW election feels like a ‘no clear winner’ election.

    GB and Libs appear to have got back a little of the momentum that had been steadily creeping (not rushing, to be fair) the other way most of the campaign?

    But is it too late? How many postal voters?

    GB may have won the debate overall but it probably needed to be more decisive to have the major shift she needed.

    Regards to you Ozzie political junkie cousins!

  24. Moderate – do the “Liberals” send their moderates out to troll their opponents? Obviously, they don’t let them anywhere near the levers of power without, as in the case of Malcolm, getting them to agree to abandon their principles.

  25. “It was his key agency mate”

    You don’t seem to understand how statutory agencies with boards independently appointed by the Governor in Council work.

  27. It would be nice if a liberal could turn up and not troll. Meher is about as close as that gets, and he’s not really a lib.

  30. Its Ok William. Its not a NSW ALP branch meeting and I can cope promise – more an indictment on them than anything.
    I do think those meetings are now taking place in Long Bay ATM. There’s no problem making quorum.

  33. Moderate what about my bet with you on Riverstone $10….. give me a
    lead of 4 % points of $20 to my $10 if you are sure still think a lot of seats are competitive and the coalition are cactus in the bush especially the nationals

  34. “It’d be nice if a Liberal could show up here occasionally without everybody losing their shit.”

    This close to an election?? Good luck with that one mate. 🙂

  35. Its kinda funny Andrew old mate – you were kind of told by the independent umpire (William ) to calm your farm and then you start the whole name calling all over again. Admittedly today has been a particularly bad day for you and I’ll happily take that into account – but its not too hard being civil is it?

  38. So now in about 36 hours we have moved from an ALP majority, to ALP minority, to Lib Minority to ‘Tories going to lose some seats’. Guess what – I can live with that on Saturday!!

    Clennell – who was backing ALP minority until Monday has now just jumped horse big time.

    And Mick – I’ll take any odds on Riverstone you like. Its the Winx of the campaign.

  39. Mick – unless you want o see an unedifying exhibition of personal hygiene, I’d leave it and watch Minns as Opposition leader do the 2023 debate.

  43. Ive watched some snippets of Daley in the debate. Its not great for him. Its actually not good at all. He stumbles and fumbles his facts and figures.

  44. “Admittedly today has been a particularly bad day for you and I’ll happily take that into account – but its not too hard being civil is it?”

    According to the rupeverse it’s been a bad day for Labor, just like the last 15,000 days … I reckon that’s all confected white noise. I’m still looking forward to Saturday night just as much as I was yesterday, and the day before that, and last week.

  46. “watch Minns as Opposition leader do the 2023 debate.”

    I thought he was going to lose his seat on Saturday in your rupeverse? Now he’s going to be opposition leader? Whaaat?

  48. “Ive watched some snippets of Daley in the debate. Its not great for him. Its actually not good at all. He stumbles and fumbles his facts and figures.”

    The last 5 minutes wasnt pretty. In the 10 minutes of he debate i saw before that he was killing it and Ive never seen a leader as rattled as Gladys in one of these leaders debates before.

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