YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in New South Wales

The Daily Telegraph has a statewide New South Wales poll from YouGov Galaxy that records a dead head on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 38% and Greens 9%. The poll also records Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 3% and One Nation on 1%, which I presume accounts for the limited number of seats these parties are fielding candidates in, as was the case with YouGov Galaxy’s late campaign polling in Queensland last year. A preferred premier question has Gladys Berejiklian with a 38-36 lead over Michael Daley, which is rather slender for an incumbent. It also finds 47% saying the government’s stadium plans have made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with only 16% for more likely. The report says the poll was conducted from a sample of 1016 “before The Daily Telegraph broke the story of Mr Daley’s doublespeak over ­Chinese immigration”, but it’s no more precise than that on the field work period.

Yet again, the is well in line with the existing reading of the state election poll tracker, on which Labor currently leads 50.6-49.4. The trend charts can be viewed over the fold, with the full display featured as part of the election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

218 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in New South Wales”

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  1. How the debate is being reported: https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/labor-leader-michael-daley-stumbles-over-key-details-in-leader-s-debate-20190320-p51608.html

    Labor leader Michael Daley has struggled to explain the details of his signature election policies in a televised debate as voters prepare to go to the polls in three days.

    Mr Daley was debating Premier Gladys Berejikian before a live audience of 100 undecided voters in Penrith when he failed to recall the costs of his TAFE policy or his Gonski education package – two centrepieces of Labor’s election.

    Ms Berejiklian however stumbled over a question involving Sydney’s M4, and whether motorists would be slugged with a new toll between Penrith and Parramatta.
    :::
    Polled as they exited the Sky News hosted debate, 50 of the undecided voters said they were now more likely to vote for Ms Berejijlian, 25 for Mr Daley and 25 remained undecided.

  2. Yep that last 5 minutes. Gives the smh, rupeverse and ‘their ABC’ the excuse to campaign for the liberals.

    In voterland, if anyone was watching from the riff, Gladys’s response to the M4 toll would just about kill Ayres’ chances alone. She was rattled and out of her depth, but caught a very lucky break at the end.

  3. Moderate, I thought you Libs were good with money?* You can get $5 for your mob in Kogarah at Ladbrokes. Why are you wasting your time with $3 at Sportsbet?

    * Yes, we know it’s a myth but try keeping up appearances for the sake of the voting public. /sarcasm

  4. The basic Liberal message this election is: “everything’s going great for us all in NSW under us; don’t put it at risk by voting us out”.

    Unfortunately for them, not enough voters in enough seats are going to agree with the first part of that argument. Too many think public transport, public health and public education in this state have been monumentally stuffed up by this lot, whether through incompetence or deliberate intention. And too many are aware that the lion’s share of their escalating power bills can be sheeted home to actions of this NSW government, and these voters acutely feel the squeeze this puts on their household budget at a time of chronic staffing their wages.

    No wonder the Liberals have thrown the switch to muckraking in the final week, even digging up that rotten political corpse, John “pedophiles can be good people too” Howard.

  5. And did I mention this government’s scorn for under-resourced, struggling areas of this state, with their boasting that the billions they’re wasting on their vanity project of tearing down & rebuilding sports stadiums wouldn’t be missed in towns and suburbs with inadequate public health, education, housing and transport.

  6. I remember Rebecca White in Tasmania easily winning her debate while Liberals were cruising to victory. These debates mean jack shit.

  11. The sad aspect to me is that, while the Liberals are destroyers of the public good and believe that spiv profits are more important than public service and they have no conception nor commitment to the public good, the ALP is a dogs breakfast of incoherent commitment to anything!!!

    Has the ALP ever reversed any of the corrupt “privatisations” of publicly owned infratsructure?

  13. I hate to say it, but Google Trends suggests that the Liberals are now more likely to win. Google Trends is not perfect, but does give a real time view of the public agenda. NB this is a live view and constantly changing.

    Explore search interest for labor, liberal, daley, berejiklian by time, location and popularity on Google Trends – https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-GB&tz=-660&date=now+7-d&geo=AU-NSW&q=labor,liberal,daley,berejiklian&sni=3

  15. Having to delete comments is just more work for you, William. But if that removes personal attacks from any side of politics, you’ve got my support.
    PS. Just wondering- do you get much sleep?

  16. William Bowe says:
    Wednesday, March 20, 2019 at 10:44 pm
    I’m going to start deleting comments that consist exclusively of reflections on other commenters.

    Hallelujah! Bravo! Whoooot!

    It will be so much better in here.

  17. This, from a SMH column by Kylor Loussikian and Samantha Hutchinson today:

    “What Labor leader Michael Daley most needs now, with two days to go before state election polls open on Saturday, is a little bit of that ol’ Bruce Hawker magic.

    Maybe he can organise a biffo between his boss and Sydney Cricket Ground Trust director Maurice Newman, held WrestleMania-style in whatever’s left of Allianz Stadium?

    Readers of this column would have no doubts where we stand on the campaign skills displayed by Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s most senior strategists, having managed to turn Daley from distant prospect into a real shot of winning government in just four months.

    But Labor campaigners are rattled, and there’s no doubt about that.

    Campaign committee insiders reckon things were looking up last Friday, with NSW Labor general secretary Kaila Murnain optimistic of securing a win on Saturday.

    Labor’s tracking polls, conducted by YouGov-Galaxy across a dozen seats from electorates already held by the party to must-win areas like Seven Hills, had been rising for two weeks.

    Since then, however, momentum has not just stalled but reversed.

    We’re told it’s not worth contemplating the numbers until Thursday, when things solidify.

    But operators across both Labor factions have already pointed us to disquiet in Sydney seats over a preference deal with the Shooters, and Daley’s “Asians with PhDs”-gate, which continued yesterday.”

    Makes for uncomfortable reading. One might even have to eat a whole humble pie on Saturday night if it’s true. Of course, my own impeccably placed party sources were telling me that thing were still looking excellent to pick up at least 10 seats off the coalition as at noon on Tuesday, a day after the Daley ‘Asians with PhDs’ comment first broke …

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