Federal election minus whatever

A new venue for general discussion of matters political, as the New South Wales election sucks the oxygen from the federal sphere.

Reflecting its confidence about its prospects in Victoria, Labor has traded in its existing prospect for the seat of Higgins, Josh Spiegel, for a higher profile model in the shape of barrister Fiona McLeod. That’s all I really have to relate at the moment, but a new federal politics and general discussion thread is required, and here it is. Note the new Brexit post from Adrian Beaumont below this one and, naturally, the latest New South Wales election post above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

606 comments on “Federal election minus whatever”

Comments Page 11 of 13
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  1. Rocket Rocket says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 12:52 pm

    Upnorth

    What is it like being in Thailand a day before the Thai election?

    Do people talk about it in day to day dealings?
    ———————————————————————————
    RR – absolutely – the Thais are very passionate. Turnout will be about 98% for tomorow’s (24 March) election (and there is no fine if you don’t vote). Lots of large election posters for each candidate
    about the place. Vehicles fitted with election posters and loudspeakers driving around. Everyone talking about it. Alcohol sales are banned today and tomorrow I believe.

    Early voting started last week with long queues to vote. One pregnant woman went into labour whilst lining up. She demanded to vote and was then rushed to hospital to give birth. Upcountry candidates riding elephants to drum up support.

    500 lower house seats up for grabs tomorrow. Constituency and party lists voted on. They will combine with 250 “appointed” Senators to choose the next PM and Government.

    I think that the opposition Pheau Thai and associated parties will win the majority of seats tomorrow. They are the party of the Shinawatras (Thaksin and Yingluck) who were overthrown by the military. Their support comes from outside Bangkok where the majority of the population lives.

    The military and Bangkok Hi-So’s (High Society) will back the Military installed PM, Prayut Chan-o-cha’s Palang Pracharath party.

    With the Military effectively controlling the committee that will apppoint the 250 senators, the opposition needs to win more that 375 seats tomorrow to take Government. Will be interesting.

    Me – I’m off to Bali early morning but will keep an eye on the “Bangkok Post” for results.

  2. Pegasus @ #464 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 11:21 am

    Bill Shorten brings Mark McGowan into federal sphere for Labor’s election campaign:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-23/labor-leader-bill-shortens-wa-visit-mark-mcgowan-prominent/10929390

    For anyone who paid even one second of attention to Bill Shorten’s Perth trip this week, the imagery Labor wanted people to see was virtually impossible to miss.

    It was much less about what Mr Shorten was doing than who the Opposition Leader was doing it with.

    Labor is bringing WA Premier Mark McGowan into the federal sphere. And it wants to do it in a big way.

    Bill getting tips from McGowan on how to disrespect the EPA ..?

  4. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 1:17 pm
    briefly @ #496 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:13 pm

    RD…proving once again that the Gs prefer to lie about Labor than anything else.
    If anything, it is Penny Wong who is virtue signalling. Disappointing.

    _________________________________

    Rex
    Can you explain how Penny Wong is ‘virtue signalling’?

  6. TPOF @ #504 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 1:17 pm
    briefly @ #496 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:13 pm

    RD…proving once again that the Gs prefer to lie about Labor than anything else.
    If anything, it is Penny Wong who is virtue signalling. Disappointing.

    _________________________________

    Rex
    Can you explain how Penny Wong is ‘virtue signalling’?

    Tell Penny it’s actually ok to ‘protest’ against bad policy.

    She, being attached to the union movement, shouldn’t be disparaging the act of ‘protest’.

  10. RD….yada yada…the Gs premise their campaigns on the notion that they will be able to ‘bring’ Labor closer to them. Weirdly, they suppose they can accomplish this by campaigning against Labor at all times and all places (as you do here at PB). Labor have been listening to the Gs. Labor have learned what there is to know about the Gs and have figured them out. The prescribed treatment is to stay away from the Gs.

  11. briefly @ #512 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    RD….yada yada…the Gs premise their campaigns on the notion that they will be able to ‘bring’ Labor closer to them. Weirdly, they suppose they can accomplish this by campaigning against Labor at all times and all places (as you do here at PB). Labor have been listening to the Gs. Labor have learned what there is to know about the Gs and have figured them out. The prescribed treatment is to stay away from the Gs.

    It is very clear that the ALP are more aligned with Liberal policy than Greens policy.

    The ALP have succeeded in taking most long term Labor partisans with them to the right.

  12. It wasn’t that long ago (fewer than ten years) that artificial meat cost over $100k/kg, but now $22 for a burger (same as killed meat): https://amp.news.com.au/travel/world-travel/north-america/we-tried-the-worlds-most-talked-about-burger/news-story/

    The article explains the reduction in environmental impact.

    It’s things like this – hi-tech wood is another – that will make the critical difference; not a never ending panoply of virtue signalling

  16. Upnorth

    Thanks for that – I was fascinated the few times I have been interstate or overseas during a local campaign or election. I heard about that alcohol ban – I was thinking when I heard it that although I just about nevr drink I might need to make an exception on the night of our federal election, whichever way the result goes!

    I did follow the drama of the Thai King’s sister not being allowed to run. And it made me wonder whether ‘lesser’ royals in the UK can run for Parliament, though the equivalent to section 44 ‘office under the crown’ probably stops any whi are on the royal payroll.

  17. Ardern – a shining example of leadership

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/world-s-tallest-building-lit-up-with-image-of-jacinda-ardern-20190323-p516ua.html

    The world’s tallest building has been lit up with a giant image of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern embracing a woman at the Kilbirnie mosque in Wellington.

    The Burj Khalifa, an 829-metre-tall skyscraper in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, beamed out a photo taken by Wellington photographer Hagen Hopkins, as well as the Arabic word “salam” and its English translation, “peace”.
    :::
    Two glowing editorials by The New York Times were headlined “America deserves a leader as good as Jacinda Ardern”, and “Jacinda Ardern leads by following no-one”.

    The New Yorker ran a piece titled “Jacinda Ardern has rewritten the script for how a nation grieves after a terrorist attack”, crediting her empathy and action to ban military-style semi-automatics and insistence on not naming the killer.

  18. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 1:39 pm

    briefly @ #500 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    If the Gs are unwilling to listen they will not learn.

    The Greens and progressive Independents have listened and learnt that the Liberal/Labor pantomime has left the country in a precarious position re the environment and social behaviour.

    While I don’t disagree there is a need to change what we’ve seen from the Liberals, the Greens arrogantly think they are completely right with their philosophical approach.

    If history has shown us one thing it’s that no philosophical model has all the answers, they have their positive features and their negative ones.

    I see Labor as being about finding a balance between the two and with more emphasis on the social side of the equation they are much closer to a solution than the others.

  20. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 1:57 pm
    briefly @ #512 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    It is very clear that the ALP are more aligned with Liberal policy……The ALP have succeeded in taking most long term Labor partisans with them to the right.

    This is just untrue. These claims are the deliberate defamations of a Libling.

  21. An interesting read. Philip Adams recalls a dinner in 1972 with guests including Barry Jones, Ralph Nader,John Gorton,Sir Frank Macfarlane Burnet .It was to celebrate the end of Nader’s Oz tour.

    A night to remember

    ……The dinner had its tensions. Barton had formed the Australia Party, precursor to the Australian Democrats, which Perkin saw as vainglorious. And Mac Burnet was sobering a slightly pissed Gorton with a stern critique of the latter’s enthusiasm for nuclear power. Anticipating 9/11 by decades, Mac warned of terrorists flying planes into nuclear plants. ……………………………..Mac drew a diagram on the Melbourne Uni tablecloth. “Even with current solar technology an array of panels in the Nullarbor just 100 miles by 100 miles – a mere speck in the desert – could collect enough energy to power the entire planet.” (Remember that this was in 1972.

    https://outline.com/84WXN8

  22. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 1:36 pm
    TPOF @ #504 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 1:17 pm
    briefly @ #496 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:13 pm

    RD…proving once again that the Gs prefer to lie about Labor than anything else.
    If anything, it is Penny Wong who is virtue signalling. Disappointing.

    _________________________________

    Rex
    Can you explain how Penny Wong is ‘virtue signalling’?
    ————————
    Tell Penny it’s actually ok to ‘protest’ against bad policy.
    She, being attached to the union movement, shouldn’t be disparaging the act of ‘protest’.
    _______________________________________________
    Rex, that response makes no sense at all as an answer to my question.

  23. Interesting to note that the FBI continues with a counterintelligence investigation into Russian espionage and interference in US politics. Said Russian espionage is ongoing. This investigation is separate from Mueller’s work and is for obvious reasons being shielded from the public. This is why Mueller has to be careful about what he reveals in his report as he and the FBI knows Trump will tell Putin what they have and what they are doing.

  24. We are staying near Christchurch now and are going into the city proper tomorrow. I was thinking of some kind of floral tribute.

    Meanwhile, we are also looking forward to tonight’s election results trickling through. All media organizations appear to have have joined in the “Daley had a horror week” bootstrap position, but are unable to back it up with convincing opinion polling, leading to contradictory headlines along the lines of “Too close to call despite Daley horror week.”

    I would like to think that booth workers don’t take these media confections too much to heart. After all, Daley only had a “horror week” because the media all joined in reporting it as such, using gaffes and hesitations on his part as fatal campaign flaws.

    This is while the Darling dries up, businesses along the light rail and West Connex corridors go broke, traffic arteries are sclerotic, our state departments are sold off, Alan Jones and the crusty old right wing nabobs of the Cricket Ground Trust continue to tell Premiers what they are to do, and the Health system relocates to the Caymans after being flogged off to (what turned out to be) beards working on behalf of anonymous bidders.

    But hey, what’s that to a “hesitation” on TAFE funding?

    I am hoping the the horrors all lean Gladys’ way tonight.

  25. “I am hoping the the horrors all lean Gladys’ way tonight.”

    Thou are not exactly alone in that BB. 🙂 This is one of those elections that could go anywhere. Not getting my hopes up too much, but not writing ANYTHING off.

  26. Thanks poroti. As we read two Cat 4 cyclones are crossing or nearing the Australian coast for only the second time in history. So reminders of the not-normal nature of this summer are continuing.

    How unlucky for ScumMo that, after a decade of demonising muslim immigrants and denying climate change, evidence of the folly of both policieds has arrived just as ScumMo seeks re-election.

  27. John Dean
    @JohnWDean

    Trump and his minions think they dodged a bullet. I have a notion — only a recurring though — that Mueller delivered a bomb to AG Barr, who is now trying to figure out how to tell Trump in a way that doesn’t cause him to start World War III. Barr knows he works for a psycho.

  32. Rex@3:30pm
    Glady’s landslide forgetting about what this LNP government has done in last 2 years let alone last 8 years. For example, Remember that environment disaster where a million fish are killed, water theft, knock down and build a new stadium eventhough refurbishments will cost around $18 million.
    IMO to have one police officer to police the White Supremacist right wing terrorists is the biggest racist thing the government has done.
    (7read my post at 3:19pm)

  33. As Bill Maher said on Real Time today, you don’t need Mueller’s report to know there was collusion with Russia. Anyone with a TV could tell that, and anyone who followed his tweets could see evidence of obstruction of justice.

  34. Charles says: Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 3:46 pm

    David Corn
    @DavidCornDC

    Trump’s campaign manager did collude with an alleged Russian intelligence associate at the behest of a Russian oligarch close to Putin. There’s no question about this. This is a scandal in and of itself.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/01/yes-there-was-collusion-look-at-the-manafort-case/

    ********************************************************

    I think its very early days, Charles – the report has not even been seen by Congress/public – there may be many unsealed indictments – and I believe that SDNY/NYAG and others still have not revealed who they MAY still have under investigation and its my belief that they are going to indict many members of Trumps family and others under RICO ( Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act ) for many financial crimes like fraud, tax evasion, money laundering, electoral funding etc etc ……. and I would not bet against some underage sex trafficking related to ModelAgency/Escort / Epstein, Miami Spa etc …

  39. poroti says: Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 4:24 pm

    phoenixRED

    there may be many unsealed indictments

    Not it seems from Mueller,

    *********************************************************

    …… but maybe passed on to other avenues of investigation to the Southern District of New York , New York Attorney General etc ……. which have taken a very keen interest in the material passed on to them by the Mueller team that fell more under their jurisdiction than the tasks Mueller was given ……

    Lets just wait to see what turns up rather than crowing about what may or may not transpire in the future as we public know very very little about what information various US law sources have/ have not on all of this ….. and not get carried away by – various media hyping this up to suit their particular audiences ….

  40. This week, Frydenberg posted a video to his social media accounts. Set to a stirring soundtrack, it is filled with local people singing his praises. Along with Elwood, there is a pharmacist, mental health worker, cafe and supermarket owners and groups that represent stroke patients, breast cancer sufferers and children with autism. There are kids at childcare, a netball player and a guide dog. There is even a group of nuns.

    “Josh is our hero, absolute hero,” one woman says, while a local drycleaner wonders whether Frydenberg is the only cabinet minister to pick up and drop off his own shirts.

    While there is an obvious self-promotion aspect to the film, the fact that so many people would appear on his behalf also points to his strong local links. He is known as one of the hardest workers – and networkers – within the government. This extends to the effort he makes in his electorate, which he has never regarded as “safe”. This means there is no standing start ahead of the 2019 campaign and the unexpected entrants into the race. And yet, the fact that he made such a comprehensive video also suggests there is a level of concern. So too the Treasurer’s requests to colleagues on Tuesday to retweet it.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/josh-frydenberg-fights-back-in-the-battle-for-kooyong-20190321-p5166h.html

  42. Reports in from the NSW blog. Our lord and master gracing Ch9. The recent ‘ interventionist god’ a clean up and polish of Pollbludger to snag these gigs ?

  46. Muskeimp

    Thanks! That is a great result for Daley and Labor considering the starting point. Win, lose or hung parliament, there will be no quick result tonight. Which means no clean air for the Libs from now till election day.

  48. Back from door-knocking in Pearce. People very willing to listen to what Labor has to offer. Many positive discussions. Health and especially education top of the issues list. Not a single mention of immigration.


  49. Cud Chewer says:
    Friday, March 22, 2019 at 11:46 pm

    frednk

    Didn’t they fairly recently add platforms 15-16 to Southern Cross station and move a bunch of country services to there?

    Yes. thru lines running only Vline services and well utilized. The thing with southern cross is the number of services is steadily increasing. The Ballarat line ( the one I use) is currently being duplicated to Melton. Our park and drive car park doubled 12 months ago; it’s now full, we are now getting a new platform, another car park doubling. Another station is going in before Melton. The station that couldn’t take full length trains is being fixed. It is all happening because the number of passengers has gone thought the roof.

    Public transport seems to have a tipping point. If there is no passengers you don’t get a decent service; get enough passengers for a decent service and it gets used. We have a decent service.


  50. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 1:39 pm

    briefly @ #500 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    If the Gs are unwilling to listen they will not learn.

    The Greens and progressive Independents have listened and learnt that the Liberal/Labor pantomime has left the country in a precarious position re the environment and social behaviour.

    Waiting, yes waiting for the glorious revolution, and then the greens will be more than a protect party.

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