New South Wales election: the morning after

A quick and dirty review to an election result that proved surprisingly similar to the one in 2015.

I lack the energy to offer much in the way of a post-mortem at this late hour, except to say this was a remarkably status quo result. The Coalition dropped around 3% on the statewide primary vote, and Labor and the Greens about 1% apiece, so presumably the Coalition landed somewhere between 53% and 54% on the two-party vote. This is a couple of points better than the polls suggested, making this the first election result in a very long time that surprised on the up side for the Coalition (UPDATE: Thanks to NathanA in comments for jogging my memory about Tasmania last year). To a certain extent, that might be explained in terms of the Newspoll, with its Tuesday to Thursday field work period, only picking up part of a final week shift away from Labor – although it doesn’t explain an exit poll that was in line with the two-party result.

The Coalition went into the election needing to restrict its losses to six to retain its majority, and it is only clear that they have lost three. Two of these losses were to Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who had a rather spectacular night in picking up all three of their target seats, with Barwon and Murray joining their existing seat of Orange (I was suggesting the Nationals were more likely to retain Barwon quite late in my election night commentary, but they actually have a very handy lead there). Labor’s only clear gain is Coogee, which they now look to have in the bag, although by a lower than expected margin. It looks like they will fall short in East Hills and Penrith, but I will keep an eye on those all the same. Independent Mathew Dickerson has come close against the Nationals in Dubbo, but he is slightly behind and independents tend to lose ground in late counting.

The one seat on which I have crunched numbers is Lismore, which is likely but not certain to be lost by the Nationals. The question is whether it will be lost to Labor, who lead the notional two-party candidate, or the Greens, who had an unexpectedly good night despite the drop in their statewide vote, retaining their three existing seats of Balmain, Newtown and Ballina, and being well in the hunt in Lismore to boot. The two-party count has Labor with a lead of 1840, which looks too much for the Nationals to reel in – they should gain about 500 when pre-polls that have thus far been counted only on the primary vote are added, and the 2015 results suggest they will gain a further couple of hundred when absents and postals are added. However, Labor candidate Janelle Saffin holds a lead of just 24.85% to 23.90% over the Greens, and the race to stay ahead at the last exclusion could go either way. If the Greens win, they will certainly get enough preferences from Labor to defeat the Nationals UPDATE: Didn’t have my thinking cap on there – they may very well fail to get enough Labor preferences to do so.

The basic election night count for the Legislative Council accounts for 48.4% of enrolled voters, and only provides specific results for above-the-line votes for seven parties, when an “others” total that lumps together above-the-line votes for all other parties, and below-the-line voters for all and sundry. The only votes identified as informal at this point are those ballot papers that were left entirely blank – less obviously informal votes are presently in the “others” pile. Disregarding that complication, the current numbers show a clear seven quotas for the Coalition, six for Labor, two for the Greens, one apiece for One Nation and Shooters, leaving four to be accounted for.

The Coalition has enough of a surplus to be in the hunt for one of those; Labor probably doesn’t; One Nation look in the hunt for a second seat; the Christian Democrats and Animal Justice are both possibilities. The wild card is that three quotas under “others”, which would maybe a third of a quota’s worth of below-the-line votes for the seven main parties. My very late night feeling is that the Liberal Democrats (i.e. David Leyonhjelm), Australian Conservatives and Keep Sydney Open might all be in contention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

687 comments on “New South Wales election: the morning after”

Comments Page 4 of 14
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  1. And why did NSW Labor so quickly and easily lose momentum? Because it had nothing of substance to offer the voters. No real solutions offered on transport – except a toll cashback, cancelled rail lines, and a review of train timetables. Labor has known for eight years that they cannot win in Sydney unless they actually have something to offer on this issue, but still, at two elections, they’ve had nothing to say. I simply don’t understand. I don’t even live in Sydney and I KNOW transport is the central issue in Sydney.

    Jimmy.. exactly!

    A couple of years ago I sat down with Jodi to talk about transport and after an hour I walked out of her office thinking “fuck, you guys are going to lose the next election unless you get a transport policy”.

    I can’t repeat what was said, but she was clueless. Labor at state level just hasn’t reached out and talked to transport experts widely. Its listened to a small group of disaffected former state rail people.

  3. No wonder, Jodie joined the wrong party !!! Great captain’s pick Morris .
    ———————————————————-
    McKay was installed as Labor’s candidate for Newcastle over the sitting member Bryce Gaudry, after Premier Morris Iemma intervened to ensure her selection.[2] McKay had been lined up to become the Liberal Party candidate for Port Stephens
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jodi_McKay

  4. Cud Chewer

    100%. I said similar last night. Where/what was Labor’s policies other than stop this or that? Where was the vision and hope?

    Their transport policies seemed like a grab bag of quarter baked ideas with no overall direction.

  5. Rex, if you want to pick a date in May, then I’d suggest 25 May, meaning the writs issue Easter Monday. Any earlier dates conflict with school holidays and Easter. A time Australians traditionally take their last away family holidays before winter. Morrison needs to engage voters and you cannot do that when they are on holidays.
    So, the 18th is not a good date.
    But as I said there has been no meaningful dialogue in the PMO on selecting dates for the issue of writs or polling date as yet.

  6. William,

    I disagree with your statement that this is the first time in a long time that election results have surprised on the upside to the Coalition, it was only 12 months ago that there was a very, very similar result in Tasmania.

    My theory is that the last three State elections, NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, are linked. I think that a lot of people don’t really like change or minority Governments. These three results have all, in my opinion, been affected by a common view amongst some people that the Federal Government are going to be turfed, and in an era where the PM seems to change annually that’s enough change for them, thank you very much.

    The exception to this is the rural areas where the ludicrous 20-odd point swings to the SFF show how on the nose the NSW Nationals are, but may not happen federally. Importantly, the SFF are presenting a very different threat to the conservative side of politics. The SFF aren’t making outrageous statements for attention, instead they’ve taken their public service responsibilities more seriously than their media and have been rewarded handsomely. But as Andrew Earlwood has stated, you need to be in a position of power to demonstrate that.

  7. What about those two ‘greats’ Carr and Eagen. Who sat on there hands for so many years building just half a rail line.

  9. As I said – am not disputing the transport issue. I do not drive (never have) – therefore transport is important for me.

    My argument is: voters from other states don’t give a shit about govt at a state level in other states!

  10. There’s very little point in denouncing the voters as stupid, as some commenters above have done. It’s very rarely the case that there is absolutely no reasonable justification to vote a government back in (the Trump regime is one of the few examples that comes to mind). In relation to NSW, for example, some people may have concluded that it’s in the long-term interests of the country for the Liberal Party to be dominated by moderates rather than crazy conservatives, and that voting for moderates could encourage that. People might disagree with that, but it’s not stupid. No two voters have exactly the same interests.

  12. Socrates says: (Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 9:56 am)

    “The final good bit of news out of this is that Labor will have to have a climate change policy to win at Federal level. You should not become PM just by having a small target strategy.”

    I agree in the sense that Labor needs a climate change policy as bold and decisive as “No Dams” policy in stopping the Franklin Dam in the 1983 Election.A policy of No New Coal with a 10-15 year phasing out of all coal mining. A policy of making Australia a Renewable Energy Superpower both in generation and technology.

    It won’t happen with the current Labor Team. This is despite the electorate wanting decisive action on climate change. The school kids strikes (The Childrens Crusade of 21st Century), the RBA sounding devastating economic and financial consequences without urgent action. Even the CIA have been warning of climate risks in their worldwide threat assessments. The common theme: Urgent Action.

    The LNP offer no real action. Just cosmetic tinkering. Labor, certainly much much better but falling short of urgent action. There is a cognitive dissonance between the Australian electorate and the political class represented by the major political parties on this issue.
    I believe that this will be reflected by a large increase in the Cross Bench members in the coming Federal election. (Imho, a doubling from the current 7 to 14).

    Labor will win, but not in a landslide. I hope that I’m wrong and that Labor will have some further major climate and energy policies closer to the election. So far, Labor has a small target position. I can’t see this changing.

  14. poroti @ #152 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 11:34 am

    No wonder, Jodie joined the wrong party !!! Great captain’s pick Morris .
    ———————————————————-
    McKay was installed as Labor’s candidate for Newcastle over the sitting member Bryce Gaudry, after Premier Morris Iemma intervened to ensure her selection.[2] McKay had been lined up to become the Liberal Party candidate for Port Stephens
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jodi_McKay

    Good grief !!

  15. Re13 @ #154 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 11:36 am

    Rex, if you want to pick a date in May, then I’d suggest 25 May, meaning the writs issue Easter Monday. Any earlier dates conflict with school holidays and Easter. A time Australians traditionally take their last away family holidays before winter. Morrison needs to engage voters and you cannot do that when they are on holidays.
    So, the 18th is not a good date.
    But as I said there has been no meaningful dialogue in the PMO on selecting dates for the issue of writs or polling date as yet.

    It is May 18th.

  16. ‘v1julia

    Labor will win, but not in a landslide. I hope that I’m wrong and that Labor will have some further major climate and energy policies closer to the election. So far, Labor has a small target position. I can’t see this changing.’

    Labor has had three very large and damaging big target policies out for over a year:

    1. emissions reduction target
    2. negative gearing
    3. franking credits.

    There have been massive national campaigns by affected interest groups on all three.

    One consequence is that Labor will have a huge and credible kitty to deploy over the next eight weeks.

    Shorten’s Labor will win or lose standing tall. Not on its knees.

  17. So at last Gladys Berejiklian finally introduced her partner to the world at the Liberal Party celebration party last night. And not a bad looking Lipstick Lesbian she was either. Hopefully, now that she has her own mandate she will be more open about it with the NSW public. We aren’t close-mined bigots about those sort of relationships. The lady in question could even become an asset to Berejiklian for goodness sake as an example of the Moderate Liberal brand.

  18. BB@7:20am
    SMH admits now that coalition campaign was “negative and dirty”
    Do you agree that Daley’s racist comments got Chis Minns in trouble in Kogarah and increased the majority of Libs in Oatley and a certain defeat in East Hills for Libs to a posdible victory.
    You are like one of those ALP supporters, who allowed Unions and ALP to keep White Australia policy till Gough Whitlam changed it.

  21. Cud Chewer
    A couple of years ago I sat down with Jodi to talk about transport and after an hour I walked out of her office thinking “fuck, you guys are going to lose the next election unless you get a transport policy”.

    I can’t repeat what was said, but she was clueless. Labor at state level just hasn’t reached out and talked to transport experts widely. Its listened to a small group of disaffected former state rail people.

    I’m not surprised. McKay totally lived down to my expectations last night. Clueless and full of excuses and denial.

    Having said that, Burney wasn’t much better. Her and McKay celebrating the fact that Labor was doing well in seats like Strathfield and Granville, and hanging on in Kogarah, struck me as pathetic.

    Furthermore, neither of them seemed to have much, or any, insight as to why Labor did so badly.

    I had to stop watching.

  22. Boerwar @ #165 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 11:54 am

    ‘v1julia

    Labor will win, but not in a landslide. I hope that I’m wrong and that Labor will have some further major climate and energy policies closer to the election. So far, Labor has a small target position. I can’t see this changing.’

    Labor has had three very large and damaging big target policies out for over a year:

    1. emissions reduction target
    2. negative gearing
    3. franking credits.

    There have been massive national campaigns by affected interest groups on all three.

    One consequence is that Labor will have a huge and credible kitty to deploy over the next eight weeks.

    Shorten’s Labor will win or lose standing tall. Not on its knees.

    Shortens on his knees to the coal unions..

  23. Calling an election during school holidays isn’t a problem, nor is an overlap with the campaign period, especially early. It’s an election date on a long weekend or during school holidays that is generally avoided.

    There is no issue with May 11 or 18.

  24. C@tmomma @ #166 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 11:54 am

    So at last Gladys Berejiklian finally introduced her partner to the world at the Liberal Party celebration party last night. And not a bad looking Lipstick Lesbian she was either. Hopefully, now that she has her own mandate she will be more open about it with the NSW public. We aren’t close-mined bigots about those sort of relationships. The lady in question could even become an asset to Berejiklian for goodness sake as an example of the Moderate Liberal brand.

    Why are you making it a big deal then ?

  25. Negative politics at its worst. It would appear Labor’s anti-Greens attack ads rolled out during the election were unsuccessful.

    Sweet.

  31. @Rex “The Labor right is more aligned with Liberal policy than Greens policy so I can’t see that tactic changing anytime soon.”

    So you blame Labor for attacking the greens but then you turn around blaming Labor Right – hypercrits.

    Go blame someone else like liberals.

    Oh wait you said NSW RIGHT WERE THE SAME AS LIBERALS BUT IT IS LIBERALS ARE BACK IN GOVERNMENT

  32. Daley this morning:

    “Politics is a tough game,” a disappointed Michael Daley has declared in Maroubra this morning.

    But like others before him, the man is not for turning.

    “You can’t sit around and cry in your beer. You have to be brave, front up, keep working. This is an important job. Opposition is an important job. We have a very weak government here. That has promised the world. Don’t forget, the promise that you can have everything,” Daley told reporters.

    “Our job is going to be to make sure they deliver on all their promises and keep running the state properly and our job is to hold them to account, and that is exactly what I intend to do. I’m not going anywhere.”

  33. C@t:

    I did not know Berejiklian was gay. That might explain all those awkward, nearly-there-but-not-quite hugs from Howard and Morrison.

  35. brigid glanville
    ‏
    Verified account

    @brigidglanville
    3h3 hours ago

    Kogarah MP Chris Minns is not ruling anything out. Michael Daley’s leadership is not safe after a bruising result in last night’s state election. #NSWVotes

  36. vote1julia

    ‘Labor will win, but not in a landslide. I hope that I’m wrong and that Labor will have some further major climate and energy policies closer to the election. So far, Labor has a small target position. I can’t see this changing.’

    I was in contact with Butler’s office recently, putting together a media release on climate change for local distribution – they were very clear that there is more to come.

  37. sprocket@8:37am
    “well a nothingburger result”.
    Well it is not a nothing burger result. It is a badburger result for ALP and NSW people (at least environmentally)
    Damn it, ALP PV across the state is down 1% like that of Libs when it should be up from a low 35%.
    As of now ALP has gained only 1 seat.
    East Hills, the most marginal seat, is firming as a retain for Libs instead of a win to ALP. People of Ballina were willing to vote for Greens rather than ALP.
    Greens – 3 , SFF – 3 and Independents – 3
    Greens retained their seats even after they were completely hopeless and dysfunctional. My point is people were ready to vote for a dysfunctional Greens rather than a Daley lead ALP.
    If Victorian State elections have impact federally so do NSW State elections. As Cassidy pointed state ALP made federal seats of Banks, Gilmore and Robertson more difficult for federal ALP
    ALP won Kogarah and Strathfield inspite of Daley because they had good candidates in Chris Minns and Jodie Mckay.
    Daley should resign or replaced as ALP leader because he does not have Asians trust ( that is verdict of the election results). Somebody who was not part of last ALP government should take over ALP leadership.
    I was naive to believe the crap that was posted by some ALP supporters. Not any more.

  40. zoomster @ #185 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 12:14 pm

    vote1julia

    ‘Labor will win, but not in a landslide. I hope that I’m wrong and that Labor will have some further major climate and energy policies closer to the election. So far, Labor has a small target position. I can’t see this changing.’

    I was in contact with Butler’s office recently, putting together a media release on climate change for local distribution – they were very clear that there is more to come.

    The fine print will be interesting.

    No doubt The Guardians excellent climate policy journo’s will forensically study it for any tricks.

  41. “I was in contact with Butler’s office recently, putting together a media release on climate change for local distribution – they were very clear that there is more to come.”

    But..but…….but……..

    The ALP are not releasing it when the Greens want them too! Bad ALP…smack!! 🙂

  43. Pegasus @ #184 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 12:14 pm

    brigid glanville
    ‏
    Verified account

    @brigidglanville
    3h3 hours ago

    Kogarah MP Chris Minns is not ruling anything out. Michael Daley’s leadership is not safe after a bruising result in last night’s state election. #NSWVotes

    Minns supports less union control over policy and more power for the rank and file. Thats a good start.

  44. “Kogarah MP Chris Minns is not ruling anything out. Michael Daley’s leadership is not safe after a bruising result in last night’s state election. #NSWVotes”

    Natural reaction…meH. NSW need to make sure they keep a low profile heading into the Fed election and do not dredge up any #leadershit issues. Leave that to the Nats. 🙂

  45. Rex and Pegasus
    You have completed you job on PB after the election LNP government in NSW. You must have exceeded KPI at the HO. 🙂

  46. What ‘Anti Greens Labor attack ads’!?! I didn’t see one and I watched a LOT of TV as I minded dogs during the campaign period.

    Jesus the Victorian Greens, as has been well documented and evidenced, are a spiteful crew. Thank god they don’t want to migrate north of the Murray. Victoria can have them and their Anti Labor bile and intense focus on putting spittle-flecked spokes in Labor’s wheels.

    All The Greens, candidates and volunteers, that I met during the campaign were decent people who treated the Labor people as kindred spirits at heart.

    Unlike the pusillanimous poisoned-tongue Pegasus, who pontificates from her Victorian redoubt of truthiness surrounded by her scissors and her paste bottle, or the oleaginous Rex Douglas, who will spit venom at Labor when he likes or ooze away from that to pretend to have standards of behaviour on this blog that he exhorts us to respect and observe.

    I have no time for either of them. But I have plenty of time for the good people that I worked with over the last 3 weeks and helped hand out HTVs for when they couldn’t stump up the volunteers on the day.

    Still, it appears we are stuck with Pegasus and Rex Douglas as they don’t seem to have anything else to do but try to take Labor down on this blog. Oh, I forgot, Pegasus has wonderful dinners with all her friends.

    Hmm. Maybe that’s where she saw the ‘Anti Greens Labor ads’ (in Victoria?). When she was binge-watching MAFS with her friends after dinner. 😆

  47. “Jimmy.. exactly!“

    Nonesense Cud – that just reflects your obsessions. Going to the election promising to do two out of the three metros the current government wants [both of which it was ahead of the government in committing to BTW], and redirecting spending from the equally stupid southern freeway and Bankstown metro extension towards a train tunnel under the RNP is not “no transport policy” as alleged.

    Extending the western metro onto the current airport- East Hills line will free up the city circle line as effectively as decommissioning the Bankstown would. In fact more Bankstown line services could then be added.

    Anyway, that’s all academic now – probably. I suspect that the reality that ‘platform lifts’ are not going to present much of a solution to the inherent problems in converting the Bankstown line to a metro will become apparent and the plan will be be binned next year – possibly at the same time that the extension of the western metro into the inner south east is announced.

  48. imacca @ #193 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 12:26 pm

    “Kogarah MP Chris Minns is not ruling anything out. Michael Daley’s leadership is not safe after a bruising result in last night’s state election. #NSWVotes”

    Natural reaction…meH. NSW need to make sure they keep a low profile heading into the Fed election and do not dredge up any #leadershit issues. Leave that to the Nats. 🙂

    On the contrary , NSW Labor should act immediately to show the electorate a fresh approach.

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