Another night before Christmas

Doubts the election is quite as imminent as all that, and a slightly dated poll result showing business as usual pre-budget.

Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.

Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.

UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Another night before Christmas”

Comments Page 20 of 26
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  1. WeWantPaul @ #939 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:29 am

    Everyone already thinks Setka is the day quintessential union thug. Stories about him wouldn’t add anything.

    And although it was very successful for decades it has become apparent that unions are both, unsurprisingly, overwhelmingly good for workers (even non-unionised workers) and also less obviously very good for the economy as a whole.

    ….

    In relation to coal mining, what might be good for coal mining workers is scientifically proven to be detrimental to every other citizen, the environment and thus the economy.

  2. Surely if reopening Christmas Island was enough of a threat/deterrent that they didn’t even NEED to open it, then why not just issue the threat first – without spending a dollar – and only then follow through if the threat proves not to have been a sufficient deterrent?

    $185m is an awful lot of money to spend just to prove a non-existent point.

  3. Rex Douglas @ #944 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:35 am

    WeWantPaul @ #939 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:29 am

    Everyone already thinks Setka is the day quintessential union thug. Stories about him wouldn’t add anything.

    And although it was very successful for decades it has become apparent that unions are both, unsurprisingly, overwhelmingly good for workers (even non-unionised workers) and also less obviously very good for the economy as a whole.

    ….

    In relation to coal mining, what might be good for coal mining workers is scientifically proven to be detrimental to every other citizen, the environment and thus the economy.

    John Setka has nothing to do with coal mining.
    He represents and leads workers in the construction industry.

  4. 0419225996
    ‏ @mwmclean1
    Replying to @InsidersABC @latingle

    Hi Laura, can someone explain why Australia’s National Debt has now grown to 42% of GDP and there no mention I can see about it? Is it now a concern?

  5. Ah the election campaign. Weeks of Johannes Leak battling with himself every day to produce the least funny cartoon. 101 ways to draw the same picture of a ‘union thug’ next to Shorten.

  6. You live under a rock, Rex?

    In case you have selective amnesia, Cash tried to impugn Shorten over the ‘women in his office’ during estimates when her back was against the wall over the illegally publicising the AWU raids.

    But you already knew that – you just want to stimulate discussion on it so certain others will pick up the ball and run with it. .. like your incessant repetitions of other superficial talking points which stimulate others to finally speak up in frustration.

    I’m sure I am not the only one to notice that behaviour – and you’re not alone in your quest …

    It is tedious.

  7. Also on Shorten and Union smears- this is the cost of living/ rorts of the rich/ stagnant wages election…don’t think people are going to be distracted by personal smears, associations or even boats.

  8. Morrison will be able to have on his desk a little model Christmas Island made with a palm tree and steel cage inscribed with

    I OPENED THIS

    Actually make that two.

    I CLOSED THIS

  9. Nath re: fast charging

    Try graphene capacitors:

    https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-supercapacitors

    “Graphene-based supercapacitors are said to store almost as much energy as lithium-ion batteries, charge and discharge in seconds and maintain all this over tens of thousands of charging cycles. One of the ways to achieve this is by using a highly porous form of graphene with a large internal surface area (made by packing graphene powder into a coin-shaped cell and then dry and press it).”

    Of course there are a large number of problems due to the enormous power that would need to flow in to charge (nice cable you’ve got there) and the power coming out if large numbers of capacitors discharged at once (that car is a bomb*) so it would be.a hybrid of battery and capacitors, with the latter used to provide accelaeration…

    *Or the power source for a one-shot anti ballistic missile directed energy weapon or a rail gun, perhaps.

  10. The ALP should a countdown between now and when the election is called.

    “Another day, another $600,000 of YOUR money the government has spent on re-election advertisements.”

    Then update the amount daily.

    It would be fun, and it would given them the shits

  11. 2016 federal election campaign

    The news ltd/corp hacks and pro coalition media hacks along with the libs/nats ran with dirt on shorten and the union connections

    Result Labor gain 14 seats

    Libs/nats lost 14 seats

    If the news ltd/corp hacks and pro coalition media hacks,with the libs/nats are that unintelligent to run dirt on Shorten again ,

    Labor will likely get over 92 seats in the house of reps at the up coming federal election

  12. Anyone asking how long an EV takes to charge is asking the wrong question. It is framing this centuries technology in terms of last centuries technology. The way most people use their cars they will have no need to charge their cars in 10 minutes or even 20, 30, 60 minutes. They will not need to visit a recharging station EVER. Why would they wait till their battery is flat before they recharge it? Imagine how you would use your car if you had a self filling petrol bowser at home. You could just top your tank up when you got home. That is how most people will use an EV. Sure some vehicles will be limited by recharging times, but not 99% of domestic users.

  13. WeWantPaul

    Well said. I have read Setka on Twitter and I know how anguished he feels at every worker’s death. The Coalition have left no stone unturned to prevent Unions from protecting (or even contacting) labourers.

  14. E. G. Theodore @ #957 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:41 am

    Nath re: fast charging

    Try graphene capacitors:

    https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-supercapacitors

    “Graphene-based supercapacitors are said to store almost as much energy as lithium-ion batteries, charge and discharge in seconds and maintain all this over tens of thousands of charging cycles. One of the ways to achieve this is by using a highly porous form of graphene with a large internal surface area (made by packing graphene powder into a coin-shaped cell and then dry and press it).”

    Of course there are a large number of problems due to the enormous power that would need to flow in to charge (nice cable you’ve got there) and the power coming out if large numbers of capacitors discharged at once (that car is a bomb*) so it would be.a hybrid of battery and capacitors, with the latter used to provide accelaeration…

    *Or the power source for a one-shot anti ballistic missile directed energy weapon or a rail gun, perhaps.

    Capacitors have virtually zero internal resistance so a short circuit will be like a bomb as you describe. To confirm that practice matches theory, I know of a group of radio technicians who tried it with a big capacitor used in a radio transmitter. Theory confirmed! Dramatically.

  15. Nath; “ All it shows is that Shorten doesn’t charge it, he probably has one of these red shirt droogs do it for him. who cares.”

    Actually he has all ALP members hooked up to hamster wheels to provide the power. That’s the real reason why C@tmomma periodically absents herself from responding to you – she’s on “wheel duty” (I bet you thought the song was about you…)

  16. jenauthor @ #952 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:40 am

    You live under a rock, Rex?

    In case you have selective amnesia, Cash tried to impugn Shorten over the ‘women in his office’ during estimates when her back was against the wall over the illegally publicising the AWU raids.

    But you already knew that – you just want to stimulate discussion on it so certain others will pick up the ball and run with it. .. like your incessant repetitions of other superficial talking points which stimulate others to finally speak up in frustration.

    I’m sure I am not the only one to notice that behaviour – and you’re not alone in your quest …

    It is tedious.

    Nope, never heard of ‘the woman in the office’ until now.

    Re ‘superficial talking points’
    If you’re alluding to my comments regarding the dark elements in Liberal and Labor directing their meanness at, for example, Newstart recipients and asylum seekers, I completely reject your assertion they’re superficial. It’s most definitely a real life issue for the underprivileged.

  17. There can be no doubt that this will be a no holds barred election – both parties have a great deal to lose. If there is any potenial scope for imputations of inappropriate behaviour, dishonesty or hypocrisy to be levelled against the prominent figures on either side, a pretty good working assumption is that those imputations will be made. Shorten has been around for 6 years and so it’s perhaps more likely that if the LNP had serious dirt on him it would have been thrown by now, but I would be naive to assume it won’t or can’t happen. Doubtless there are also dirt files in waiting on the ALP side against Scomo and others. Maybe mutually assured defamation will be the only deterrent to the really nasty stuff being deployed. In any event most voters are turned off by those tactics and the net effect of excessive mud slinging may well be to drive voters to independents and third parties.

  18. Seeing the footage on Insiders of Morrison, with the appalling Ms Cash making a guest appearance from behind the whiteboard, wherein an up close sneering Morrison leans into the camera hissing – ‘and they (Labor) will send you the bill (for everything till the end of time) – betrayed his capacity for hate imo. It was deeply ugly.

    (And all the while we are paying for the bastards to lie to us)

  19. The greens should be attacking Angus Taylor , and the libs/nats blunder about the ultra fast charging of electric cars ,

  20. EGW @ #947 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:36 am

    Rex Douglas @ #944 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:35 am

    WeWantPaul @ #939 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:29 am

    Everyone already thinks Setka is the day quintessential union thug. Stories about him wouldn’t add anything.

    And although it was very successful for decades it has become apparent that unions are both, unsurprisingly, overwhelmingly good for workers (even non-unionised workers) and also less obviously very good for the economy as a whole.

    ….

    In relation to coal mining, what might be good for coal mining workers is scientifically proven to be detrimental to every other citizen, the environment and thus the economy.

    John Setka has nothing to do with coal mining.
    He represents and leads workers in the construction industry.

    He is a senior rep of the CFMMEU, which is pressuring Labor to continue propping up coal.

  21. Chinda:

    Shorten Suite Verified account@Shorten_Suite
    2h2 hours ago
    On @InsidersABC, @JoshFrydenberg promised to reveal how much taxpayer’s money the Libs are burning on TV advertising this week.

    We’ve worked out it’s approx $600,000 EVERY SINGLE DAY.

    That’s $25,000 of your money every hour.

    Time to come clean @JoshFrydenberg.
    #auspol

  22. Insiders.

    According to puff pieces in the MSM, Josh spent hours refining his ‘narrative’ on the Budget. All in terms of “but Labor”, I suspect. I’m sure his fellow Libs were delighted with his effort, but he didn’t fool the Insiders panel (nor the People trying to access NDIS) .

  23. Rex Douglas @ #970 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:53 am

    EGW @ #947 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:36 am

    Rex Douglas @ #944 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:35 am

    WeWantPaul @ #939 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:29 am

    Everyone already thinks Setka is the day quintessential union thug. Stories about him wouldn’t add anything.

    And although it was very successful for decades it has become apparent that unions are both, unsurprisingly, overwhelmingly good for workers (even non-unionised workers) and also less obviously very good for the economy as a whole.

    ….

    In relation to coal mining, what might be good for coal mining workers is scientifically proven to be detrimental to every other citizen, the environment and thus the economy.

    John Setka has nothing to do with coal mining.
    He represents and leads workers in the construction industry.

    He is a senior rep of the CFMMEU, which is pressuring Labor to continue propping up coal.

    Some in the mining division only. A small minority.
    Do try to get to grips with facts and reality Rex.

  24. E. G. Theodore @ #965 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:47 am

    Nath; “ All it shows is that Shorten doesn’t charge it, he probably has one of these red shirt droogs do it for him. who cares.”

    Actually he has all ALP members hooked up to hamster wheels to provide the power. That’s the real reason why C@tmomma periodically absents herself from responding to you – she’s on “wheel duty” (I bet you thought the song was about you…)

    I find that comment offensive.

    What is it, ‘Kick the C@t Day’?

  25. EGW @ #972 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:55 am

    Rex Douglas @ #970 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:53 am

    EGW @ #947 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:36 am

    Rex Douglas @ #944 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:35 am

    WeWantPaul @ #939 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:29 am

    Everyone already thinks Setka is the day quintessential union thug. Stories about him wouldn’t add anything.

    And although it was very successful for decades it has become apparent that unions are both, unsurprisingly, overwhelmingly good for workers (even non-unionised workers) and also less obviously very good for the economy as a whole.

    ….

    In relation to coal mining, what might be good for coal mining workers is scientifically proven to be detrimental to every other citizen, the environment and thus the economy.

    John Setka has nothing to do with coal mining.
    He represents and leads workers in the construction industry.

    He is a senior rep of the CFMMEU, which is pressuring Labor to continue propping up coal.

    Some in the mining division only. A small minority.
    Do try to get to grips with facts and reality Rex.

    When you merge with others you own their behaviours. That’s the price of fame.

  26. C@t

    Relax. I think it was sarcastic humour, not kicking the cat.

    max

    both parties have a great deal to lose.

    The parties with the most to lose are the voters.

  27. “Labor’s claims about the #NDIS are an ugly lie,” says Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg.

    Christine Phillips
    ‏@cscviews
    19m19 minutes ago

    Replying to @InsidersABC @JoshFrydenberg
    Facts don’t matter to this mob of liars…I have close and personal connections in this … they tried to destroy #NDIS by deliberately undermining the implementation by underfunding and shambolic administration #auspol

  28. I took Theodore’s comment another way C@t.

    I thought he was talking about the power that comes from labor members being out campaigning on Bill’s/Labor’s behalf … when you go out door-knocking and such.

    And that you weren’t ignoring them out of pique, but you were doing an alternative … something useful

    I may be a Pollyanna, but that’s what I read.

  29. 21 panels already?

    21 panels is nothing. I’ve got 40. Probably won’t add any more, but may replace the 20 oldest ones with newer, more efficient panels and their old inverter with microinverters.

    What do your do with all that power?

    Sell it to the electricity company. My power is free and the credits net $150/month, which covers my phone and internet costs.

    Capacitors have virtually zero internal resistance so a short circuit will be like a bomb as you describe.

    Other things can be bomb-like under the right conditions. Such as tanks full of petrol. 🙂

  30. The last word I am going to say on Setka/Shorten stuff.

    I merely wished to report tthe rumours flying around in the union hierarchy, that the Australian has articles to go on both. Whether this actually happens remains to be seen.

  31. C@t

    Regarding the banning of Stegall T-shirts at Brookvale.

    You have had a shocker last month posting with certainty a number of things that were dead wrong.

    Here’s a suggestion. Instead of saying “yes that is covered by XYZ high court case”, you could say “maybe XYZ high court case would make that illegal”.

    That way when those who do actually know the facts correct you, you don’t look so bad and your reputation for posting wrong info might improve.

  32. I don’t think Labor are going to let this go.

    Chris BowenVerified account@Bowenchris
    4h4 hours ago
    The Liberals are spending $600,000 a day on tax payer funded ads. Delaying the election a week means more than $4 million of partisan ads funded by the tax payer. Fitting that they end the term with the same arrogant contempt for the taxpayer that has marked their entire term.

  33. The Turnbull’s are already mocking the libs/nats and newsltd/corp and pro coalition media hacks blunder

    @LucyTurnbullGSC
    Follow Follow @LucyTurnbullGSC
    More
    Very exciting ABB Launches 8-minute Charger for Electric Vehicles – Renewable Energy World

  34. C@t: it was hyperbole; an attempt at humour… Obviously it failed but I really don’t think I need to apologise

    To carry it further (or dig myself into a deeper hole): the Greens tried capturing au pairs to power their hamster wheels … it didn’t work as the wheels fell off!

  35. jenauthor and lizzie,
    I’ll take your more generous interpretation but I read the hamster jibe as a relatively brainless animal going round and round in circles going nowhere. Generating heat but not light. The Chaser Boys didn’t call their political satire show The Hamster Wheel for nothing!

  36. Newspoll: 53 ALP 47 LNP
    Election: 82 seats for Labor. I’m pessimistic because the voters of NSW went for the LNP with all its baggage. In periods of turmoil voters tend to stay with the incumbent. I know that some voters can differentiate between federal and state issues. But I am depressed looking around the world at the resilience of the ratbag right. I’m hoping that the Shorten government will have a good working majority. But I think the odds are against what some people predict might be a landslide to Labor.

  37. Just on the use of the word ‘droog’ in a pejorative sense, only illiterates and/or cultural insensitives would connote the use of the term in Stanley Kubrick’s as the one and only meaning.

    In most Slavonic languages, including Russian, “Droog” is Russian друг “close friend” – or as Australians would say, ‘mate’.

    So Bill Shorten has mates who help him out ‘filling up’ his electric car. Now I could actually tell you some stories about how many politicians get their own bags out of the boot of limousines, but I won’t. Suffice to say, that Bill Shorten is one of those.

  38. E.G.Theodore,
    I’ll take what you said as a given, however, maybe you need to read up on the generational differences since #MeToo and Julia Gillard’s Misogyny Speech on what are appropriate humourous allusions to draw wrt women.

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