Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).
On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.
In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.
The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.
It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).
ab11
The $16 million dam would not have to be dismantled, IMO. A couple of holes in the wall in strategic locations would render it useless.
“Wayne, can you, at a bare minimum, ration it out a little more sparingly please.”…
Thanks William. May I suggest to Wayne to ration his posts out at a rate of one per year. That would be plenty.
I trust that I have not blighted any political careers by declaring that nominations are closed.
Boerwar @ #511 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:04 pm
I was thinking of floating a similar proposition on PB just to see what others thought.
Why can’t the Australian Government ban any entity conducting business in Australia from having any dealings, either directly or indirectly, with any entity domiciled in a tax haven?
A recent small example.
I had some printing done. I placed the order in Australia, the work was actually done in Australia, but the invoice was from an entity in The Netherlands. WTF!!!
And to add insult to injury, the bank levied a charge for currency conversion on my credit card.
There is no way such a rort should be permitted.
Lizzie
Sally McManus more powerful than Shorten. Cool. Radical left Corbyn style government here we come 🙂
They really are getting desperate over there
I will be hosting a big street party when our great LNP win the May election and everyone from here is invited to the party.
Boerwar @ #519 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:13 pm
ABC News Radio had it.
I needed some distraction and this was the best I could find. Sorry it’s not new.
This may be the reason we are seeing the desperation today
If anyone has not posted it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-22/vote-compass-election-negative-gearing-tax/11025628
Only 29% Oppose
C@tmomma @ #523 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:16 pm
No C@t some of us took note of what someone posted the other day about the AEC Timeline here: https://www.aec.gov.au/election/
lizzie says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 5:47 pm
I think you just found Wayne’s job!
Alpo @ #551 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:43 pm
And he has taken no notice of the both of you. See @5.46. 😐
Good lord. When it was a 700 strong car convoy, Bob Brown was saying it would emit less than 30 seconds worth. Now it’s less cars and three days…
C@tmomma
says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 5:52 pm
Alpo @ #551 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:43 pm
“Wayne, can you, at a bare minimum, ration it out a little more sparingly please.”…
Thanks William. May I suggest to Wayne to ration his posts out at a rate of one per year. That would be plenty.
And he has taken no notice of the both of you. See @5.46.
____________________________________
maybe you could do some rationing too. 200 posts today?
http://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/Debugging%20water%20gate%20%255bweb%255d.pdf
I think the Australian Institute has updated its press release. If you read it carefully it really does explain how the the govt purchased water that really may have been worth ZERO and there is no evidence any dams etc were decommissioned.
How good does the new Parra Stadium look? Cant wait to go to a game there.
zoomster @ #564 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:53 pm
FEWER cars!
C@tmomma @ #527 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:18 pm
Your posts on this topic are not reliable.
A nomination has already been lodged for the NSW ALP Senate Ticket. Nominations close tomorrow, but as a full slate of candidates has already been nominated, can that be changed other than allowing a candidate to withdraw? Can a substitution be made?
Bulk nominations by parties closed on 21st.
I honestly don’t know the answer and, I suggest, neither do you.
adrian
Ironically, I wrote ‘fewer’ cars, left the post to check the numbers, came back and redrafted it….
adrian
It’s no good. Almost everyone does it. Even those not mathematically challenged. 🙂
laughtong @ #529 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:18 pm
Conspiracy theories are all the go on PB. Don’t spoil this one with facts. 😆
When is Barnaby’s interview with Karvelas and does it get streamed live?
Mr Denmore
@MrDenmore
Well that was easy!
zoomster @ #570 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:57 pm
😉
lizzie @ #571 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 5:57 pm
I know, it’s like its and it’s…
Government money involved directly or indirectly all over watergate and we aren’t allowed to ask the names of the Cayman’s identity? And politicians , the government are not obligated to inform the public.
Right wing regime stuff. (ie bullshit).
And the MSM aren’t interested. (more bullshit).
And a PM doesn’t know anything.(Sgt Schultz bullshit).
C@tMomma: “And he [Wayne] has taken no notice of the both of you. See @5.46. ”
Thus providing further support for the theory that “Wayne” is a machine learning computer program, now malfunctioning as a result of Bowe’s message being outside its generalisation bounds…
Karvelas about to grill Barnaby on RN
Nominations can be withdrawn up until the deadline, so presumably a party that wanted to alter its Senate ticket could do that and then nominate again.
jenauthor @ #580 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:03 pm
Barnaby wants to be interviewed without a camera on him. Then he’ll say he’s already answered those questions and tell everyone to piss off.
Bill Shorten speaking on the two deaths in Sri Lanka now
Barnaby interview with Karvelas RN now
adrian says:
Monday, April 22, 2019 at 6:02 pm
The one I’m noticing more lately is “to” instead of “too”.
here’s your link.
https://radio.abc.net.au/stations/RN/live?play=true
Fess
It’s about to start now on RN
Just as Dire Straits sang…….
Yep I knew Barnaby would leap on those $300m figures from the previous Labor govt.
Hey Red Ted,
There is a conspiracy theory that W Bowe is ‘Wayne’.
For a whole raft of reasons.
Could be W Bowe threw that in as fingers are occasionally pointed in his direction?
Gawd he’s raving.
William Bowe @ #581 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:05 pm
Thanks William.
E. G. Theodore @ #578 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:03 pm
Yes, probably a malfunctioning i360 bot. 😆
jenauthor @ #580 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:03 pm
Barnaby going nuts!
I mean, more than usual.
Confessions @ #590 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:10 pm
I thought so. Bluff and bluster has worked in the past, so why not try it again?
Confessions @ #588 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:10 pm
However, that is completely irrelevant to what Barnaby and Angus Taylor did.
Moronson believes that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a woman made from a rib was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree.
He also believes in “the rapture”!
Karvalis is sticking fat to her process.
Joyce hoping the rusted ons in the LNP will trust him.
Is it possible that Barnaby is making this whole thing worse by not answering the questions? Surely they’ll just keep getting asked?
Barney in Da Lat @ #584 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:07 pm
I fell about laughing when I caught sight of ‘overbored’ on my son’s phone the other day. 😆