Odds and sods: week two

The betting markets record movement to the Coalition on the question of party to form government, but seat markets offer ample opportunities to those not anticipating a Labor landslide.

Welcome to the second instalment of what will be a more-or-less weekly review of movements on election betting markets – in particular, those of Ladbrokes – coming slightly ahead of schedule, the first such post having been six days ago. On the big question of party to form government, the odds have reflected the tenor of media chatter over the past week by moving to the Coalition, who are now paying $3.80 compared with $4.50 last Thursday, while Labor are out from $1.19 to $1.23 (you can find these odds in the sidebar).

On the seat markets though (where you can find the odds at the bottom right of each page on my electorate guide), this only translates into two more seats where the Coalition is now rated favourite – leaving Labor as favourites in a surely implausible total of 95 seats, with the Coalition ahead in 50 and others in six. The latter are the five existing cross-bench seats, with Indi favoured to remain independent ($1.77 to $2.15 for the Coalition) despite the retirement of Cathy McGowan, and Rob Oakeshott favoured to win Cowper ($1.65 to $1.95 for the Coalition). They aren’t favourites, but someone at Ladbrokes or in the betting market thinks Shooters Fishers and Farmers are a show in Calare, where they are paying $3.00, in from $3.25 last week. Captain GetUp seems to have impressed the markets, with Tony Abbott in from $1.75 to $1.67 in Warringah and Zali Steggall out from $2.00 to $2.20.

In a fairly clear case of the polls leading the markets, one of the two seats where the Liberals are newly the favourites is Bass, where they have been slashed from $4.00 to $1.80, with Labor out from $1.20 to $1.70. This has also been reflected to an extent in the odds for Braddon, where the Liberals are in from $4.00 to $2.75 and Labor are out from $1.22 to $1.40. For some reason though, neighbouring Lyons has gone the other way, with the Liberals out from $4.00 to $4.50, and Labor in from $1.20 to $1.18. There also seems to have been no effect from the Corangamite poll, at least not yet – the Liberals have actually lengthened there, from $6.00 to $6.50.

The other seat where the Liberals are now the favourites is Brisbane, where they have shortened from $2.50 to $2.00, with Labor lengthening from $2.00 to $2.30. This was one of a number of modest movements to the Liberals in seats they are defending, the others including Dickson ($3.00 to $2.50), Capricornia ($2.75 to $2.50), Gilmore ($4.75 to $4.50), Dunkley ($4.20 to $4.00) and Higgins ($1.45 to $1.40). In Labor-held seats, the Liberals are in from $2.80 to $2.50 in Herbert, $5.00 to $4.00 in Solomon, $11 to $8.00 in Dobell, and $15 to $13 in Macarthur.

It hasn’t all been one way though – as well as Corangamite and Lyons, there have been movements to Labor in two seats that can be readily understood in terms of events on the ground last week. One is George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, although the movement here is very slight, with Christensen out from $2.20 to $2.25. The other is Chisholm, where Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s bad press has brought Labor in from $1.44 to $1.33, although Liu herself is unchanged at $3.75. The Liberals have also lengthened in Boothby (from $2.20 to $2.40), Bonner ($2.40 to $2.90) and Grey ($1.30 to $1.36).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

945 comments on “Odds and sods: week two”

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  1. Of course it isnt…..

    Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    “Can you identify who the people are who made the profits?” asks Karvelas.
    “That is not relevant,” responds Barnaby Joyce.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 22, 2019 at 6:15 pm

    The one I’m noticing more lately is “to” instead of “too”.

    I fell about laughing when I caught sight of ‘overbored’ on my son’s phone the other day.

    Obviously he’s too bored. 🙂

  3. “A perfect illustration of all that is wrong with the NSW Right. Such a sense of entitlement.
    I am not sure if the AEC will accept any new candidate nominations at this stage. I hope not.”

    Oh. Come. Come.

    Senate preselections are voted on by state conference. If a candidate is ruled invalid before the returning officer declares the ballot then the votes for that candidate would spill. After the returning officer declares the ballot then that process is at an end: any withdraw of a preselected candidate after the declaration results in a ‘casual vacancy’ to be filled in accordance to the presentation principles that have underpinned upper house preselections for nearly 4 decades. In short, having centre unity fill a vacancy created by the withdrawal of a centre unity candidate is fair and in accordance with the established principles. It would also be undemocratic for the left to foist a candidate into this slot.

    Having said that, centre unity has a history of giving up its positions in the name of party unity. When the then serving Attorney General Jeff Shaw lost a winnable seat in favour of the left’s backbench dead beats (but factional spear carriers) Jan Burnswood and Meredith Bergmann the right put Jeff at the top of its ticket.

    More recently when Luke Foley became leader in 2014 he was parachuted from the upper house into preselection for Auburn, even though the left didn’t have the numbers for him to win a ballot. History repeated this year with a upper house left winger parachuted in to replace him.

    Similarly in 2016, as part of a three part move, Linda Burney was parachuted by the right in head office into Barton even though the left probably had less than 70 branch members out of about 500 eligible preselection voters. In return the right’s Sophie Kotsis was parachuted into Burney’s State seat of Canterbury (although recent boundary changes probably gave her a shot of winning a rank and file ballot if it came to that) however the left’s John Graham took Kotsis’s upper house seat.

    So currently, the left ‘owes’ the right a net two seats. I’m not whining about this – it’s clearly in the party’s interests that these type of accomodations are made. But it proves the EGW’s lie.

    As to the AEC accepting a substitute nomination, as I understand it a nominated candidate can withdraw at anytime prior to the close of nominations and another candidate can be nominated on a ticket in their place. As nominations don’t close until later this week, this shouldn’t be a problem.

  4. Early this morning I heard RN program (the Science Show??) in which the psychological effect of space travel on small groups (of varying races and combinations) was discussed. Particularly relevant in journeys to Mars and farther. Many studies have been carried out by NASA and others, with groups in isolated places such as Antarctica.

    Normal group harmony tends to break down after about 4 months and is only restored after quite intensive group therapy. The optimum preventive strategy, it has been found, is to include, not a therapist, but a comedian, in the group.

    So here we are, an isolated PB group on the Internet, journeying towards a vital election, and who shall keep us from disintegrating?

    Will it be Wayne? Is that his true purpose?

  5. Boerwar, the new owners of the station could flatten all the dams and levies, etc, and that would not really matter anyway because the floodwater would wander over to the Cubbie station, etc, and THEY would capture it, or it would be extracted by irrigators further down the stream. It’s a total joke.

  6. Conversation

    Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    “We’ve got people who are paid a helluva lot of money to determine that and then they come back and convey that to the minister” – Barnaby Joyce on the sudden escalation of the value of the water rights

  7. Surely the question to be put to him is why is it up to the federal coalition govt to do the bidding of a state govt?

  8. Victoria @ #609 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    Conversation

    Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    “We’ve got people who are paid a helluva lot of money to determine that and then they come back and convey that to the minister” – Barnaby Joyce on the sudden escalation of the value of the water rights

    2 questions:
    1. Who are ‘they’?

    2. What’s the point of the Minister then?

  9. Conversation

    Tony Burke
    @Tony_Burke
    Barnaby is missing the fact that the Qld Govt had nothing to do with the price negotiation.
    @RNDrive
    #auspol #watergate
    6:25 PM · Apr 22, 2019 from Brisbane, Queensland · Twitter

  10. Victoria @ #4323 Monday, April 22nd, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    Conversation

    Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    “We’ve got people who are paid a helluva lot of money to determine that and then they come back and convey that to the minister” – Barnaby Joyce on the sudden escalation of the value of the water rights

    Yeah Joyce (“it’s a joke….”). Most of them work for Gina. Like you.

  11. Annabel Crabb’s Tweets

    Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    ·
    33s
    “I believe firmly that there is nothing un toward about the actions of Mr Taylor. But if you’re worried about that, interview Mr Taylor. I’m Mr Joyce.”
    This is – it feels redundant to say – pretty amazing radio.

    Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    ·
    1m
    Barnaby Joyce says he had no idea who Angus Taylor was before he came into Parliament. Something about cornflakes.
    @patskarvelas
    batting on.

  12. @simonahac
    .@Barnaby_Joyce is unravelling before our very ears on @RNDrive.

    if he wanted to hose the story down, he’s done the complete opposite.

    there’s blood in the water, the media sharks are circling and he’s flapping around like the madman we’ve always suspected he is.

    simon

  13. @samanthamaiden
    Barnaby Joyce is the gift that keeps giving – to the Labor Party. This interview with
    @PatsKarvelas
    is a hot mess and coming straight to you shortly on an election ad
    6:26 PM · Apr 22, 2019 · Twitter for iPhone

  14. In the pic today where Morrison’s rapturous, I had a think about other religions. Catholics, for instance, habitually make the sign of the cross – even the lapsed. That said, Keating, for example, never imposed his religiosity on the polity; nor should Morrison- impliedly or expressly.

    The substantive point, though, is that Morrison’s religious beliefs are beyond the pale. For instance, he must surely shun scientific method. According to his belief, the Bible is the all-sufficient rule for faith and practice – how effing absurd, yet nearly half of the electorate support him.

    How, it must be said, will climate amelioration be achieved by a man who believes in a literal interpretation of the Old Testament? He’s definitely not a man for the times. He must go!

  15. Media
    Likes
    ’s Tweets

    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    1m
    Who owns Eastern Australian Agriculture and benefited from $80 million water deal?

    One investor was Pacific Alliance – which senior govt sources say means the Future Fund is in the frame.
    Quote Tweet

    @samanthamaiden
    · 10m
    BREAKING: Senior government sources say the Future Fund “indirectly” benefited from the $80 million water licence deal with Eastern Oz Agriculture though links with Hong Kong based Pacific Alliance (link: https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/04/22/barnaby-joyce-water/) thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/… @the

  16. This is making the O’Dwyer interview on Insiders about the banking royal commission look like a model performance.

  17. Lol!

    Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    ·
    50s
    It’s STILL GOING. Coalition minders stabbing away at Find My Phone

    Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    ·
    1m
    “I’m a humble old backbencher in the seat of New England”
    (in the madness it occurs to me that this scans amazingly for a track from Rocky Horror Barnaby Show)

  18. Karvelas puts it to Barnaby that Qld had nothing to do with negotiating the price. Barnaby starts going ‘lalalalalalal’.

  19. This is a sure sign that Coalition MPs think they’re gone – when they defy the party to try and save their own backsides. I think the French expression is “Sauve qui peut!”.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/lib-mp-joins-protest-against-oil-drilling-in-great-australian-bight-defying-colleagues-20190422-p51g93.html

    Liberal MP Sarah Henderson, who is defending her ultra-marginal Victorian seat, has defied her government colleagues over controversial plans to drill for oil in the Great Australian Bight.

    The Corangamite MP joined hundreds of protesters at the weekend who were calling for an end to the proposed drilling project in South Australian waters.

  20. Recon Joyce might even lose NE after that performance. The cowpunchers shoot feral stock without compassion – and Gina’s little helpers won’t want to be anywhere near him now. I wonder if we can turn Joyce?

  21. Something to consider

    henry pinskier
    @hpin55
    ·
    4m
    Replying to
    @samanthamaiden
    Tax minimisation involving the Future Fund! Is that the implication

  22. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    2m2 minutes ago

    LNP campaign HQ hiding under desks at moment with fingers in ears #Watergate

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