Wide of the mark

A consideration of whether the poor reputation of seat polling is really deserved (short answer: yes).

Still no new polls, so let’s take a look at some old ones instead. After the 2016 election, I wrote an article for Crikey on the performance of the pollsters, particularly in regard to seat polls, and published here a chart showing the distribution of their errors. After being asked if the findings bore up over the seat polling conducted since, I have now conducted a similar exercise on seat polls conducted since the 2016 federal election, of which I identified 25 conducted in the final fortnight of various state elections and federal by-elections. However, rather than use the two-party results, which have separate issues of their own, I have produced separate results from Labor and Coalition primary votes. These can be found at the bottom of the post.

In the 2016 analysis, I concluded that the polls behaved more like they had a 7% margin of error than the 4% margin theoretically associated with polls sampling 500 to 600 respondents, as is typically the case with seat polls. It turns out that this chimes quite well with the polls conducted since. The mean error for the Coalition was +1.9%, which is to say the average poll had the Coalition that much too high high, while for Labor it was -0.5%. The difference is just inside statistical significance (the p-value on a two-sample t-test coming in at 0.047).

However, this does not mean you can confidently treat any given seat poll as biased to the Coalition, because their record is so erratic that any given poll could fall either way. The charts below record the spread of pollster errors (i.e. their result for a given party’s primary vote minus the actual result) as histograms, with two distribution curves laid over them – a thinner one in black, showing what the curve should theoretically look like with a 4% margin of error, and a thicker one in blue, showing their actual distribution. The lower and flatter the blue curve, the more erratic and unreliable were the results. As such, the charts show seat polls have been particularly wayward in predicting the Coalition primary vote. They have been somewhat nearer the mark with Labor, but still below theoretical expectations. The distributions suggest an effective margin of error for Labor of 6.5%, and for the Coalition of fully 9.5%.

It should be acknowledged, however, that a lot can happen over the last fortnight of an election campaign, and pollsters can always defend an apparent misfire by asserting that the situation changed after the poll was conducted. Perhaps significantly, the two worst performing polls in this analysis only barely fit within the two-week time frame. These were YouGov Galaxy polls from the Victorian “sandbelt” seats of Mordialloc and Frankston at the state election in November last year, crediting Labor with two-party votes of 52% and 51% in seats where the final results were 62.9% and 59.7%. If these cases are removed, the mean Coalition error comes down to +1.1% and the effective margin of error to 8.4%; while for Labor, the mean becames +0.1% and the margin of error 5.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

831 comments on “Wide of the mark”

Comments Page 1 of 17
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  2. A fascinating and long overdue article which gives proper reason on why we should not trust individual seat polls.
    Thank you.

  4. If you are wondering what the LNP has been hiding, here’s one example.

    Michael Slezak
    ‏
    Exclusive: The Morrison Government signed off on a controversial uranium mine one day before calling the federal election, and did not publicly announce the move until the environment department uploaded the approval document the day before Anzac Day.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-26/government-approved-uranium-mine-day-before-election/11047252

    The former Liberal Barnett government controversially approved the mine in 2017, just weeks before it lost the West Australian election.

    Canadian company Cameco, the world’s largest uranium producer, is seeking to develop the uranium mine, which would cover an area 9km long and 1.5km wide.

    It would involve the clearing of up to 2,422 hectares of native vegetation.

    It is also approved to cause groundwater levels to drop by 50cm, and they would not completely recover for 200 years, according to Cameco’s environmental reports.

  5. Millions of hectares of pristine tropical rainforest were destroyed in 2018, according to satellite analysis, with beef, chocolate and palm oil among the main causes.

    The forests store huge amounts of carbon and are teeming with wildlife, making their protection critical to stopping runaway climate change and halting a sixth mass extinction. But deforestation is still on an upward trend, the researchers said. Although 2018 losses were lower than in 2016 and 2017, when dry conditions led to large fires, last year was the next worst since 2002, when such records began.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/25/death-by-a-thousand-cuts-vast-expanse-rainforest-lost-in-2018?CMP=share_btn_tw

  6. ICanCU and LateRiser from the last thread on Ryan electorate.

    I live in neighbouring Moreton, and have a couple of purely anecdotal observations.

    Firstly, somebody I know with strong liberal party connections was outraged at the Julian Simmonds move against Prentice, on the basis that it would give the seat to the Greens. To be taken with a grain of salt for various reasons. But even some other hardline liberal voters I know well that live in the electorate were aware that it was causing problems.

    Secondly- I had cause to drove through Fig Tree Pocket about a week ago. As you’d know, there’s plenty of old money there. From a completely non-scientific survey of corflutes on fences, there could be something in the works. My count was three greens, one each ALP and LNP.

    So my take is- yeah, Ryan could be interesting.

  7. Anythony Galloway:

    Eastern Australia Irrigation shared the same Cayman Islands address as dozens of other companies, including two companies which have been designated by the US as proliferators of weapons of mass destruction heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/… #ausvotes @theheraldsun

    Eastern Australia Irrigation shared the same Cayman Islands address as dozens of other companies, including two companies which have been designated by the US as proliferators of weapons of mass destruction heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/… #ausvotes @theheraldsun

    Mark Di Steffano:

    Here’s the BuzzFeed News video showing UKIP’s star candidate Carl Benjamin – known as Sargon of Akkad – repeatedly using racial slurs in YouTube videos:

  8. Oil and gas exploration company Blue Energy says it will take 5-10 years before any gas will flow to market from the Beetaloo basin, south of Katherine.

    The company welcomed yesterday’s announcement by ALP leader Bill Shorten of a $1.5 billion commitment to build gas pipelines in Queensland and the NT to transport the gas to east coast markets.

    The Liberal Party has also made a pledge to fast track development of the Beetaloo.

    A moratorium on exploration of the NT’s onshore shale gas resource was lifted last year and exploration is only just beginning again this dry season.

    The NT Government hopes the development of the Beetaloo will provide a fillip to its ailing Budget.

    But according to Blue Energy, that may be many years away.

    https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6087783/beetaloo-gas-may-be-a-decade-away-explorer-warns/?src=rss

  10. Labor just keeps rolling out worthy initiatives:

    A Labor government would commit $660 million to new programs to curb violence against women in a significant move that more than doubles the amount the Coalition put toward the problem just two months ago.

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and deputy leader Tanya Plibersek will on Friday promise more money for emergency accommodation, affordable housing and legal aid in an election pledge that adds to government measures already underway.

    The policy follows calls from experts for a stronger focus on programs to prevent violence against woman and families, amid concern that spending in recent years has not done enough to reduce the number of attacks.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-doubles-funding-to-curb-violence-against-women-in-660m-plan-20190425-p51ha9.html

  11. Mark Himphries:

    Nationals MP Barabbas Loins defends his role in the water buybacks scandal.

    (See video on his twitter account)

  12. C@t

    The other thing that I feel that Labor MUST do is put a fire through these dreadful privatised welfare programs that penalise women, with poorly trained and punitive staff.

  13. The Coalition are at it again. As if Downer Jr presenting an oversized cheque to the Yankalilla Bowling Club wasn’t bad enough, this week, in Caretaker Mode, the Coalition had Dave Sharma along for the ride when they announced $15 Million for the Sydney Swans’ redevelopment plans:

    Sport and politics shouldn’t mix, so the adage goes. That is also the view of some Sydney Swans fans who have criticised Liberal hopeful Dave Sharma for appearing front and centre as the federal government promised millions of dollars to the AFL club’s new eastern suburbs headquarters.

    Mr Sharma, who is gearing up for a rematch against Independent MP Kerryn Phelps in the federal seat of Wentworth, joined the Swans chief executive Tom Harley, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Sports Minister Bridget McKenzie at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Tuesday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/in-poor-taste-sydney-swans-fans-question-dave-sharma-s-funding-vow-appearance-20190425-p51h3n.html

  14. Cat

    I don’t know if Labor is planning any SA announcements but Adelaide could certainly use some more work. Despite the budget rhetoric there was very little in the Fed budget for new infrastructure – just lots of distant promises. Meanwhile the future sub is years from any construction. The Marshall government has backed away from AdeLink which was approved while promoting the South Road project which is not. End result is a “valley of death” in infrastructure construction as current projects near completion.

  15. ‘Canadian company #Cameco, the world’s largest #uranium producer, is seeking to develop the uranium mine, which would cover an area 9km long and 1.5km wide.

    It would involve the clearing of up to 2,422 hectares of native vegetation.’
    #auspol 
    abc.net.au/news/2019-04-2… via @abcnews

  16. lizzie @ #12 Friday, April 26th, 2019 – 7:08 am

    C@t

    The other thing that I feel that Labor MUST do is put a fire through these dreadful privatised welfare programs that penalise women, with poorly trained and punitive staff.

    lizzie,
    Whilst the Coalition’s mantra is that ‘the government shouldn’t be in the business of…’, I think that there probably needs to be more direct government oversight. Maybe create a government inspectorate, similar to that which was put in place for Aged Care. And then enforce the hell out of them!

  17. Stuart Tomlinson twitter:

    Morrison outspends Hockey with taxpayers money, racking up $11,625 bill au.news.yahoo.com/scott-morrison… via @Y7News

  19. Soc,
    You would have to think that Labor want to win Boothby and that Mark Butler, Steve Georganas, Nick Champion, Penny Wong and the rest of the SA Labor crew, would have had a word in Bill Shorten’s ear.

    I hope so!

  20. Bah, Shorten ruling out working with the Greens on climate policy is so underwhelming. Exactly the same mistake Rudd did and it wrecked his government. Gillard did a deal with Bob Brown and it was a solid result.

  21. My local paper starting up with political stories with Dan Tehan in Wannon showing off his Light Blue liberal colors, its expected to be one of only a few safe Liberal seats in Victoria.
    Only one positive comments towards Tehan/Liberals out of 50 on fb, social media used to be dominated by a conservative bunch here, but since before the state election in November social media has become much more visibly progressive, and matched in the community to a lesser extent as well with protests about drilling in the Great Australian Bight, and local council looking more visionary towards energy.
    It feels like the leadup to the state election where it was closer than it has been for 20 years or so (48-52), it has been LNP since 1955 (state and federal) where i am, both state and federal.
    It feels like a big swing, similar to the state election, it could be closest its been for a long time, but Tehan will likely still win with a margin of safety.
    It does make me confident that the swing is still on for the rest of Victoria as well, i dont think the rage has subsided.

  22. I’ve renewed my Newspoll predictions between now and May 17th. They will all
    be 52/48 to ALP as of all the polls they do over the weekends they will always
    pick the one most favourable to the LNP so they will skew in the LNP’s favour, for how
    bad they are… Essential will bounce around the true, fixed in aspic, result of 53/47

  23. I see Shorten is out in the media today saying he won’t make deals with the Greens, despite the Greens saying they are willing to negotiate with Labor to achieve good policy.

    It’s the same line Labor runs during almost every election campaign. After the election, however, Labor will have a choice to work with the Greens or to try and pass legislation with the help of the far right crossbench instead, which I don’t think would get them very far. The two parties have proven they can get a lot done together in the past. All it takes is respect and a willingness to negotiate.

  24. @Luke

    If he wins, we not sure it might be Minority Government yet.

    I think he doesn’t want more baggage from the media.

    So the focus is to get to Step 1.

  25. Well the Greens won’t hold the balance of power so they can’t really deliver an outcome. The best option for a long term plan (which is what we need) would be a bipartisan deal if that can be managed but the sceptics won’t let that happen.

  26. Good Morning

    According to PB the war between the Greens and Labor rages on.

    According to Glen Druery On ABC NewsRadio Labor and the Greens have nationally agreed to swap preferences.

    I find myself believing Druery not those here on PB .

    Also according to Druery a Labor government will need the Greens and then negotiate with the various right wing parties. Taking into account Druery wants to maximise the position of Hinch in the next parliament I think he is not far off the mark.

    The only real question on preferences for me is why is Morrison not being asked very very tough questions by the media for doing a deal with someone facing charges of criminal conduct.

  27. Yes Lizzie,

    So can we expect Lab to review uranium mine or just cave as they have Adani?

    Seems like If Labor get in and Pat Dodson does become minister, he will already have a long line of indigenous groups asking what actual f#$k does the ALP stand for and in what way they give any stuff about their rights and their lands

    Almost looking like a hospital pass from Labor to Pat based on the shit they’re coming out with recently

  29. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe reports that a Labor government would commit $660 million to new programs to curb violence against women in a significant move that more than doubles the amount the Coalition put toward the problem just two months ago.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-doubles-funding-to-curb-violence-against-women-in-660m-plan-20190425-p51ha9.html
    Bevan Shields reckons that this year regional Australia is waiting – with baseball bats!
    https://www.smh.com.au/please-explain/bush-bash-this-election-regional-australia-is-waiting-with-baseball-bats-20190424-p51gpe.html
    A pretty good contribution here from David Crowe on the factors influencing the two election campaigns.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/relentless-focus-on-local-issues-misses-the-bigger-picture-20190425-p51h6j.html
    Phil Coorey says that unlike Morrison, if Shorten wins the election, he’ll be very busy. He has already sketched out a 100-day plan.
    https://www.outline.com/z5ZZPK
    David Wroe says it’s time political parties started taking data protection seriously.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/it-s-time-political-parties-started-taking-data-protection-seriously-20190424-p51guf.html
    Bill Shorten says he’ll become personally involved, if needed, in negotiating Labor’s controversial tax changes through the Senate should he win on May 18.
    https://www.outline.com/WgZXhx
    Bill Shorten has told a restive business sector that a Labor government would work with it but not for it. But neither, he said, would it be beholden to the trade union movement.
    https://www.outline.com/DtgZsF
    Dave Donovan says that Barnaby Joyce’s outrageous behaviour on ABC Radio National has made a Coalition victory next month even more improbable.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/bundy-and-watergate,12611
    Journalism academic Dennis Muller writes that lies, obfuscation and fake news make for a dispiriting – and dangerous – election campaign.
    https://theconversation.com/lies-obfuscation-and-fake-news-make-for-a-dispiriting-and-dangerous-election-campaign-115845
    Just to prove the point, the Morrison government has been accused of misleading Queensland voters in a seat set to benefit most from the controversial Adani coal mine with a billboard that appears to show Labor leader Bill Shorten participating in a campaign to stop it.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6090283/worse-than-getup-coalition-slammed-over-misleading-adani-billboard/?cs=14350
    Jenna Price has some ideas on how women can better succeed as political candidates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/to-get-elected-be-high-on-mongrel-and-low-on-pollyanna-20190425-p51h33.html
    Angus Taylor and Watergate have captured the headlines but a larger scandal is the billions wasted on water projects as the health of the river system worsens.
    https://www.outline.com/WaWptr
    Bill Shorten has declared Labor will run its own race on climate change, and will “listen” but not replicate Julia Gillard’s joint policy process with the Greens in any minority government scenario after the election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/bill-shorten-rules-out-joint-climate-policy-process-with-greens-if-labor-wins-power
    Waleed Aly writes that the Sri Lankan attacks are uniquely senseless.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/the-sri-lankan-attacks-are-uniquely-senseless-20190425-p51h2v.html
    The SMH editorial comes out strongly and declares that high schools should drop religious education from their timetables.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/high-schools-should-drop-religious-education-from-timetables-20190425-p51h6e.html
    Sydney and Melbourne property prices are still adjusting to levels more commensurate with the incomes of full-time workers, according to residential mortgage-backed security analysts from the NAB.
    https://www.outline.com/VbGvjf
    Mental illness is more ubiquitous than cancer. “How can we help the ‘missing middle’?”, asks pat McGorry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/26/mental-illness-is-more-ubiquitous-than-cancer-how-can-we-help-the-missing-middle
    Try and read this Anzac Day story from Peter FitzSimons without getting a lump in your throat.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-dips-our-lids-to-the-old-diggers-it-s-really-their-day-20190424-p51gq0.html
    Anna Patty explains the bad practices of labour hire companies and how one company’s behaviour has come back to bite it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/tami-was-lured-to-australia-for-a-120k-job-three-months-later-he-was-left-with-nothing-20190410-p51cxa.html
    Sam Maiden tells us how billionaire pub baron Justin Hemmes’ generous offer to host a cocktail party to raise campaign cash for Scott Morrison is under fire from unions, who claim the hotelier has ripped off workers.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/24/host-pm-fundraiser-underpaying-workers/
    Dave Sharma does a Georgina at the SCG – and it didn’t go down too well.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/in-poor-taste-sydney-swans-fans-question-dave-sharma-s-funding-vow-appearance-20190425-p51h3n.html
    Statistics released earlier this year show 41.4 per cent of the 18,520 adults released from prison in NSW in 2017 had re-offended within the year. Not the rehabilitation hoped for.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/criminal-re-offending-at-a-new-high-despite-330-million-announced-to-fight-it-20190425-p51h7x.html
    A private school’s refusal to pay compensation to a boy who was so badly beaten he required surgery has prompted the Victorian government to investigate changes to make it easier for bullying victims to sue schools.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-plan-to-make-it-easier-for-bullying-victims-to-sue-schools-20190425-p51hal.html
    The US Federal Aviation Administration is inviting top civil aviation officials from around the world to a May 23 meeting to discuss the now-grounded Boeing 737 MAX.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/04/26/global-boeing-737-meeting/
    Booing should not define this great Anzac Day AFL game writes Jake Niall. And neither should shit umpiring!
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/booing-should-not-define-this-great-anzac-day-game-20190425-p51hbk.html
    According to Martin Kettle there will be no soft Brexit now. It’s no deal or another vote.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/25/no-soft-brexit-no-deal-revoke-vote
    Hilary Clinton has written a piece in which she expresses how the nation should respond to the Mueller report.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/how-we-should-respond-to-mueller-report-20190425-p51h0y.html
    Trump has taken his stonewalling to extreme new heights.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-radical-departure-trump-s-stonewalling-takes-clash-to-new-level-20190426-p51hdj.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe on the Palmer preference deal.

    Great work from David Pope on Palmer and Morrison.

    And from Sean Leahy.

    Jon Kudelka also has a dip.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ac02bd907469e35f79ffcdef88137507?width=1024
    Peter Broelman conflates #watergate and Anzac Day.

    Cathy Wilcox’s reflection on the Sri Lankan bombings.

    Also from Simon Letch.

    Jim Pavlidis and the one man band.

    From the US.






  30. Well, The Greens could have started the mutual respect ball rolling by not having RdN come out early in the campaign and say The Greens way or the highway!

  31. Luke says:
    Friday, April 26, 2019 at 7:20 am

    Bah, Shorten ruling out working with the Greens on climate policy is so underwhelming. Exactly the same mistake Rudd did and it wrecked his government. Gillard did a deal with Bob Brown and it was a solid result.

    Are talking about the result overturned by the Liberals? Getting the greens on side may get legislation through but it doesn’t make it stick. If you can’t make it stick it is all a waste of time.

    People who are serious about the environment would do a lot better if the got involved in Labor politics and work on the parties platform, building alliance, that sort of thing.

    The Greens are wreckers, an undisciplined rabble.

  32. Firefox

    Rupert and his minions did a few “vote Labor get Greens” ooga booga ‘scares’ last week. They’ll go full on if there is any formal acknowledgement. Not what Labor needs at the moment.

  35. Firefox says:
    Friday, April 26, 2019 at 7:29 am
    All it takes is respect and a willingness to negotiate.
    —————————-
    Unfortunately the Greens have shown themselves to be incapable of negotiation. Their idea of negotiation is to demand that their position be agreed to or they will vote against the whole thing.

  36. Zoidlord

    As is so often said on here politics is the art of the possible.

    The right faction leaning of PB may not like it but on the math Labor needs the Greens and then can look at a path amongst the right to get legislation passed.

    That is going to be tough for Labor. So having Labor and the Greens having a common position when negotiating with those Senators on the right will be in a stronger position.

    It helps to remember the NSW right and the Queensland right have lost some vital battles recently. So don’t assume that right faction hostility to the Greens will dominate. Especially when the reality of the math needed to get legislation passed sinks in.

    My guess is it’s going to be Central Alliance and Hinch Labor and the Greens negotiates with. Note I say both cooperating together.

    This also accords with Mr Shortens pragmatic realism in negotiations coming from he Victorian view.

  38. Peter Stanton.

    This is a myth of the right.

    History shows the Greens negotiate fairly. Otherwise there would have been no Gillard Government Climate Legislation.

    It does not matter how many times you repeat false myth reality trumps it every time.

  39. https://www.afr.com/business/agriculture/murray-darling-in-worse-condition-despite-8-5b-spend-20190425-p51h4p

    Basically, 7.8 billion has been wastede on the Murray Darling Scheme, mainly because after 2013 the Libs decided to move from buybacks to irrigation “improvements”. The opportunities for pork were obviously astronomical. Watergate is obviously the tip of the iceberg. It gave Barnyard a chance to help his mates and screw up the Murray-Darling plan. What more could he want!

  40. Aly’s SMH article on the Sri Lankan bombings (see BK’s invaluable dawn patrol) is an excellent, if sobering, read. It is a crystalised version of the latest discussion on The Minefield, with Scott Stephens and an excellent academic commentator from Sri Lanka of the complex roles that social media and repression may play in political theatre. The Minefield is usually excellent, but Aly’s article had it’s genesis in a live, on-air discussion on Wednesday – a remarkable demonstration of intellectual curiosity and rigor. I recommend it to all Bludgers.

  41. Is this the longest we’ve ever gone in a campaign in the modern era without polls? Surely there has to be a Newspoll this weekend.

  42. Is there something to be said for the proposition that a fair percentage of the polling is being done more crudely to save costs?

    An analysis of Super Saturday, Vic and NSW polling and voting might be instructive.

  43. “In the 2016 analysis, I concluded that the polls behaved more like they had a 7% margin of error than the 4% margin theoretically associated with polls sampling 500 to 600 respondents, as is typically the case with seat polls.“
    —————————————

    Do you have any theories on the explanation for this variance between actual and predicted MOE’s? First glance, I’d say this counts as a piece of evidence in favour of a proposition that the theoretical method of calculating MOE is inadequate.

  44. Gecko

    That’s all you got. Exactly the same metric logically applies to Labor’s NBN.

    However you can’t scapegoat the Greens for that.


  45. guytaur says:
    Friday, April 26, 2019 at 7:44 am

    .
    My guess is it’s going to be Central Alliance and Hinch Labor and the Greens negotiates with. Note I say both cooperating together.

    You got it in one; also add sections of the divided liberals and the liberal independents, with multiple paths to the end game being the best outcome for Labor; the party with well developed policy and solid internal structures. Yes the Greens will be in the mix, just like all the other minor parties.

  46. BK says:

    poroti
    How about “Vote for Morrison – get Barnaby Joyce as Deputy PM”?

    😆 And now they can add. “But wait there’s more. A free Clive kewpie doll for your ute.”

  47. The “theoretical” margin of error assumes the only source of error is from the random sampling. So it really should be seen as the lowest possible margin of error; and all the other components of total survey error (sampling frame bias, response bias, questionnaire wording problems, recall/prediction problems by the respondent, etc) come on top of that. Bearing that in mind, an actual error rate of 7% is about what would be expected (I always expect the national polls to have an actual margin of error about 50% more than the theoretical one from sampling). I don’t think seat polls are in principle any worse than national polls in this regard; the issue is just that they have small sample sizes and small number if any of repeats. So yes, effectively they are pretty useless; but only because there’s not enough of them and not enough sample in each.

  48. Someone wondered the other day whether the preference deal between the Libs and Clive could backfire like the deal the WA Libs did with PHON at the last state election. It seems Colin Barnett is having similar thoughts.

    Scott Morrison will damage relations with China and risk an electoral backlash if he inks a preference swap deal with controversial businessman Clive Palmer, former WA Liberal premier Colin Barnett said.

    In a scathing assessment, Mr Barnett said Mr Palmer was unsuitable for a parliamentary career and had an “appalling” record in public affairs, particularly his dealings with Beijing.

    In an interview with the ABC, Mr Barnett urged “wise heads” to prevail in the Liberal Party to stop a formal preference deal with Mr Palmer’s party.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-26/federal-election-liberals-palmer-deal-troubling-says-barnett/11047086

  49. Where necessary, Labor will negotiate with the Greens when in government.

    They will not do a deal with the Greens.

    There’s a difference.

  50. guytaur says:
    Friday, April 26, 2019 at 7:49 am
    Peter Stanton.

    This is a myth of the right.

    History shows the Greens negotiate fairly. Otherwise there would have been no Gillard Government Climate Legislation.

    It does not matter how many times you repeat false myth reality trumps it every time.
    —————————–
    Your example proves my point. To get action on climate change Gillard had to concede to the Greens demands. That ended well didn’t it.

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