Three new polls over the last week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, have made next to no difference on BludgerTrack’s reading of the two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection. The only change to report is movement from the major parties to the minor parties on the primary vote, with One Nation in particular bouncing back a little after a recent slump. I am not calculating a trend for the United Australia Party at this point – that will only change if I can find the time for it.
With little change in the state breakdowns, the story there continues to be consistent with both sides’ assessment of the situation everywhere except Queensland, where Labor is being credited with what seems an inordinately big swing. It should be noted that BludgerTrack is currently a lot richer in national than state-level data, which should hopefully change reasonably soon with the publication of breakdowns from Newspoll. As ever, it will be interesting to see what these numbers have to say about Queensland.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided leadership ratings for the week, which caused both leaders to drop slightly on net approval, and resulted in no change whatsoever on preferred prime minister. However, this involved a cancelling out effect of two sets of numbers that were dramatically different from each other, after fairly dramatic bias adjustment measures were applied to Ipsos. So if you look carefully at the leadership ratings trend charts on the BludgerTrack display, the Ipsos results for preferred prime minister and Scott Morrison’s net approval show up as fairly dramatic outliers.
The normal form of Ipsos is to produce more flattering leadership approval numbers than other pollsters, particularly in relation to the Prime Minister. Scott Morrison continued to record a net favourable rating of +3% in the latest poll, but this was seven down on last time, and five worse than his previous low point. There was none of this from Newspoll though, which recorded next to no change. Similarly, it was a case of up from Ipsos and down from Newspoll for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, with the latter carrying slightly the greater weight.
The full display is available through the link below – and, as ever, don’t miss Seat du jour, today detailing with Corangamite.
The costings for the LNP climate inaction policy are in: $4 trillion.
Australia can’t afford to be governed by these LNP crazies.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/climate-change-failure-could-cost-australia-4-trillion-experts-say
So William has a a go at someone about ranting on Fran Kelly being a hack well here is why:
@pbhbarrett
Heard Fran Kelly refer to “Labor’s retiree tax” on @RNBreakfast just before 9am.
Using Coalition’s phraseology to describe a measure that is not a tax lacks the detachment we expect of ABC presenters.
Been watching some commercial TV so I can see some of the political adverts.
I often wondered what meatloaf would not do for love. It would seem the answer is he will not go to MacDonalds. Fair enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRQ12qjiDBQ
Steve Price just said he thinks ‘Tony Abbott is in a world of pain at the moment’. This is one time I hope he is right.
“Heard Fran Kelly refer to “Labor’s retiree tax” on @RNBreakfast just before 9am.”
Petite Bourgeoisie at best. Just like the rest of them.
Fran Kelly also refers to Bill Shorten as ‘slippery’
Many thanks for the links to Faine, Bludgers
“Fran Kelly also refers to Bill Shorten as ‘slippery’”
Fran is one of the witches at the Daily Prophet still suffering from Gilderoy Lockhart’s memory charms.
Peter BrentVerified account @mumbletwits
1h1 hour ago
ABC reporter using the new term “death tax”.
I said this yesterday and I meant it: Labor should tackle that crap head on. There will be a FB fear campaign targetted at undecideds on that one theme.
I agree. This nonsense is becoming mainstreamed if you have 7pm news reporters simply repeating it.
Mave, I don’t search for bias; it searches for me.
Zoidlord:
[‘Heard Fran Kelly refer to “Labor’s retiree tax” on @RNBreakfast just before 9am.’]
That would surely depend on whether she was quoting as to what the Tories are calling it – everything depends on the context. Apportioning bias is in the eye of the beholder. You and others – eg, adrain, Andrew – need to take a step back, settle.
Thanks Boerwar for the Bluey Wrap. I do take issue with this however:
This has been getting a bit of a run on social media, however it isn’t entirely correct. The Howard letter described Dutton as “a most competent minister in my government”, which is somewhat different from describing him as “the most competent minister”.
Zoidlord – the “someone” who has been mildly criticised by William re Fran Kelly was me……………He suggested I should get off the “bongwater” for a comment I made much earlier in the day, based I might add, on a comment from Tony Windsor……………..yes that Tony windsor………about Fran, right here on PB.
I don’t think I am alone in my opinion of Fran but from other posters, it seems, views are divided.
I know what I saw/heard regarding her comments in 2010…………..
I don’t know just what is acceptable in a forum such as this to question the competence of journos, but a lot of posters other than me, are much more scathing in their comments and stud them with plenty of “colourful” language – not necessarily about Fran, but others too.
It is not the first time that William has called me to account re Fran………………so I will lay off……..Being accused of drinking “bongwater” is amusing as I had to look up just what this meant. Better than being called a ‘wanker’ about a comment I made some years ago.
Oliver Yates in Kooyong…
As a result, if elected, I would seek to have the Murdoch press’s license to operate in Australia removed if they continue to threaten our democracy and our safety.
#Vote1Yates #KooyongVotes
ABC reporter using the new term “death tax”
Don’t think there was bias in the news story just rank incompetence. Simple story made complicated.
The reporter mentioned it was a “false report ” a case of giving airtime to a hoax.. Like Leigh Sales boost reporting of ON over the years.
The real story should have been confronting the liberals running Telecrap false story as cover.
Tricot, dont stress about it. Getting the finger from WB is to be worn like a medal.
However, from now you will always be known as ‘bongwater boy’.
😆 😆 😆 Paul Murray on Sky explaining how “The media” are part of some great conspiracy “trying to suppress the vote” by trying to make people think it “hardly worth getting out of bed to vote” as Labor is a shoo in. Oh noes too funny, now his “log cabin’ story, a full 12 violin effort.
I’ve often said that Old Media wouldn’t be able to develop stories if social media didn’t exist, despite its propensity for blaming social media for all manner of ills to its industry.
The Libs must have got some money from somewhere. I’m seeing lots of ads both on SBS and during the NRL on 9
Coalition out to $7.00 on Betfair. 🙂
They already sold their soul. Must be selling their organs now.
Tricot bugger Fran and bugger most of the Canberra press gallery, most are next to useless and way up themselves. I have hope Patricia Karvelas might perhaps fill the void left by Barry Cassidy. And we still have Laura Tingle and Lenore Taylor, hopefully for some time yet.
‘I said this yesterday and I meant it: Labor should tackle that crap head on.’
Been saying they should get out and either call crap out and/or make fun of it, for a while now.
Probably too late.
There’s always 2022, plenty of time to practice.
Lead story on ABC.com.au
….bill shorten got left hanging when he went to shake a.workers hand
Labor needs to shake the living fck out of the ABC if (god willing) it wins
Give it more money, sure, but put a few mil to an ” independent’ review ” and watch the rodents bolt out
You’re ridiculous mundo…
Marcos De Feilittt says:
Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 5:58 pm
Hey,
Has anyone heard from Briefly lately?
Hi Marcos.
I’ve been campaigning as much as I can as well as putting in at work…fairly busy. I’ve had some good experiences out doorknocking….voters still open to persuasion on the issues and the qualities/stories of our candidates.
It has to be said I’ve been asked to doorknock in areas where voters are thought to be persuadable….difficult maybe, but nevertheless open to persuasion. The best responses to the red shirts are from women voters and from people under 35. Pre-polling seems to be a bit better for us this week than in the first week. I still reckon past-Lib voters are defecting to the minors and younger voters are receptive to G appeals at the expense of both Labor and Liberal.
The election remains in doubt in my opinion. It will be decided by the direction of prefs from the minor parties. These will run to about 1/3 of the total, and we’re only guessing about their eventual effect. Most voters I’ve spoken to think the election will be very close. Quite a few are tipping the Liberals.
I haven’t been bludging as much as usual…of course, I’m interested to know how you think things are developing…
mundo @ #723 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:18 pm
Bugger off, mundo, and don’t come back until after the 2022 election with your tail between your legs after Prime Minister Bill Shorten wins his second term!
Alex Turnbull….
Outsider @ #719 Thursday, May 9th, 2019 – 9:12 pm
As you well know, there will always be lots of $ coming from those who have done well under the Coalition. And haven’t they done well the last 6 years?
Defeatism seems to be what you do best Mundo.
Shorten has been getting good reception according to Herald Sun political editor.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1126288257052856321?s=19
50-50 newspoll .
I want a prize this time…
I think it’s a bit of a myth that the Libs are broke. The number of commercials they are running is proof enough that they have benefactors with deep pockets.
Which will all be confirmed in another year, when donation laws require declaration.
Watching SBS now it is wall to wall Lib ads. In fact they just ran exactly the same ad twice in a row, just so we get the point, I guess: Shorten is the Bill we can’t afford.
Yawwwwwwn.
Jacqui Lambie has a position on reducing GHGEs. I’d completely forgotten she is attempting a Senate comeback after she resigned rather than vote to support SSM after the postal survey. Frankly I think she can naff off and hope Tasmanians ignore her.
Yep. They were always going to jump over anything like that. Looking for their Latham moment.
Wasnt there an incident when some workers gave Keating a wrap leading into the 1993 election?
I am sticking with 50-50 Newspoll and 52-48 Essential.
The only ads I’ve seen on TV have been for Clive. These have been on Sky News, given we don’t watch commercial FTA.
I’ve seen Labor ads on Youtube though.
Bluey’s reporting, though voluminous, is top stuff – and as he would say, only in his humble opinion.
For years my alarm has gone off on ABC RN every morning and I listen to FKelly. I have heard her seriously whipping Coalie ministers numerous times…… regularly. Ditto for Labor interviewees.
Sure, she sometimes uses words and phrases that could be differently/better expressed. At times she canvasses issues I think amount to flogging a dead horse. And at times she doesn’t ask questions I wish she would.
But it is claptrap to say that she is (overtly) biased.
The bit Jacquie Lambie doesn’t get about ‘keeping a lid on the cost of living’ is that the Coalition have figured out there’s more than one way to skin a cat and make cost of living go up BESIDES electricity prices and that is why doing something about reigning in electricity prices, and thus, doing nothing about Climate Change, won’t make a dang bit of difference to ‘keeping a lid on the cost of living’.
For example, the Coalition figured out that they could say with a straight face that they haven’t privatised Medicare, but what they have done is given a nod and a wink to Health Services Providers, from Specialists through to Hospitals, Private AND Public (anyone got a bill from your ‘Public Hospital’ lately?), to bump up their fees and make previously free coverage no longer free any more and so your out of pockets become part of your cost of living.
Then there’s Wages. Going nowhere fast.
Groceries. Up and up and up.
Petrol. Ditto.
So whilst Jacquie Lambie seems to be a basically nice person with some out there opinions, at the end of the day she can’t buy a clue.
The problem isn’t exactly Fran, its the culture she inhabits. The ABC management and the Liberal-positive groupthink around her. Its not surprising some Liberal spin gets through.
The media” are part of some great conspiracy “trying to suppress the vote” by trying to make people think it “hardly worth getting out of bed to vote” as Labor is a shoo in. Oh noes too funny, now his “log cabin’ story, a full 12 violin effort.
Of course there is the small matter that voting is compulsory and is subject to a fine. Not to mention, prepoll voting is at record levels.
The only topic discussed in the media that refers to a shoo in for the election result is betting.
Saw a Labor ad on Masterchef tonight. Cute, graphic and informative, in a Millennial kind of way.
Newspoll isn’t until Sunday night this time around? Despite the one after being Sat morning?
How about Essential? Do they do next Tuesday and that’s it?
bongwater boy remembers being called a wanker several years ago and he’s been nursing that particular little wound for many years. 🙂
Scotty’s response to the issue of out of pocket expenses for cancer treatments last night was to tell voters to get private health insurance.
That said it all for me when it comes to the coalition attitude to health care.
‘fess,
And you still have to pay out of pockets EVEN IF you have Private Health Insurance!
It was worse than that Confessions. There was also the implicit attitude that somehow a PHI subsidy means everyone can magically afford it. Speaks volumes of the Liberals’ blind spot.